Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

I would say you're in a counter trend, any time frame. Considering the "setup" definition, you would apply appropriate entry and exit. Your setup entry today was perfect, yesterday, I think you missed the boat unless that wasn't your first position in it. Your two trades are a brilliant way to practically demonstrate the difficulties of trading a counter trend. It begs to ask when it is too early and when it is too late, or should I bother at all?

 

I wouldn't consider 1.56 that significant at that point. What you call the big boys, they are already long, probably long time ago. Or it could be the "additional" gains that continued at unusual time, yesterday around noon (as a matter of fact, it started around 5:11:34 am est, if you paid attention), and continued overnight in asia. Price might not be that attractive, unless you really greedy.

 

I don't see any significant price progression around the "open" 3am est on any day this week (around the time you made the trades). As a matter of fact, on the contrary. Your "setup" today would work every day this week. Having said that, that is a dynamic to consider, maybe something else is going on.

 

I'd be careful not to "overuse" the counter trend, they don't last. But you probably know this already.

As a side note, if you went the other way, you'd do better. That's where the trend is and the context.

 

Good stuff, keep it going.

Good Luck.

 

On these kind of set ups theres normally enough in counter trend moves to get something from gu and ej. If the 1hr set up candle is too large then I'm very careful about entry. A hl/lh from an extreme is usually OK IMHO. Also the times traded has some movement.

 

Cheers.

[Snow Dog 10]

Had 2 losing trades yesterday, -13 and -15.

 

2 trades today so far at least. First was ej, in move down a push up from 112.50 the strong counter 5 min trend move up has no follow through with a hammer that could not break up and then a shooting star on 5 min. Target the 50 psych level, +18.

 

1 min chart shown.

[Snow Dog 10]

The 5 min gu candles are the same, push up counter (5 min) trend hammer doesn't break through and shooting star. The keys for us (Mrs V and I) are the candles that make up the counter trend move. Again +18 in the move to 50 level.

[Snow Dog 10]

Just missed the FH move up, oh well.

 

After the LO got this push up from the days open. Target 5950/60 being psych level and a D pivot as they could be good short term pullback areas.

[Snow Dog 10]

Trade taken gu 25 psych level. Moves up through, test lower fails entry on move up in line with trend.

[Snow Dog 10]

I suspect this is out early but the +20 auto bank (Mrs V) indi was doing a FH special. 2 x 1hr hammers, 15 min hammer, higher low at the 75 level. Out +20.

 

Oh we moved stop to BE fairly early as 92 area was an obvious potential turn point to keep lower highs going.

[Snow Dog 10]

Had a -12 buy above 5900, looking again at 15 min upper wicks that preceeded it, that was a stupid stupid trade.

 

That has been somewhat rectified with this sell. FH had not done anywhere near its typical range with this lh at 5884 the days open. We know this is FH reversal time but we took trade because of solid 30 min close on DO with no lower wick. The 1 min pa that happened was clear to us that DO was not being supported. Out at 50 level for 32. A good range has now been achieved for FH.

[Snow Dog 10]

If you like the thread please rate it.

[Snow Dog 10]

If you like the thread please rate it.

 

Thankyou.

 

 

Trichet speaking, high UK news, NFP - might not be trading today.

[Snow Dog 10]

Haven't added this trade to 1st post yet.

 

2b counter trend scalp +14.

[Snow Dog 10]

Took this lh sell. 2 x 15 min shooting stars, the 2nd one on lower vol. 5 min shooting star. Darn it just missed our exit we were looking for it to get to pivot/25 and missed with 4 or 5 pips. Out at BE after getting to +15.

[SunTrader 10]

Saw this morning all 7 major Euro pairs were having inside days. Then the only one to break out, on the low side, was Kiwi/Dollar. It has since reutrned back to Friday's range.

 

So we'll likely see more (or is that less ) tomorrow until 215pm ET.

[Snow Dog 10]

1st trade of day. 1hr down, 15 min down on higher vol, 5 min lh shooting star. Nice system sell closed at 75 for +20.

 

Just exit before poss frankies half hour reversal and at Asian session lows.

[Snow Dog 10]

Mrs V then did a 1 min re-entry for -13. We also had an ej trade for +10 that we banked when it stalled at first key level.

[Snow Dog 10]

I have updated blog Vantage fx for this system trade. Cannot update 1st post here.

 

4)A 2b reversal trade which is a variation of the 123 top/bottom and is also an indication of a test and failure.

 

"In an uptrend, if prices penetrate the previous high but fail to carry through and immediately drop below the previous high, the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for downtrends." [Vic Sperandeo in "Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master"]

[Snow Dog 10]

Couple of nice trades yesterday and today started well.

 

1st trade of day, gu 15 min moved up then a squat bar that couldn't break higher. 5 min DT high vol shooting star, out +21 when RN held.

[Snow Dog 10]

I have been looking at constant range bars (7 pip setting) over the last few days. Very interesting and will continue to consider, at the moment I've ditched 1 min chart in my set up for 7RB.

[Snow Dog 10]

This was a right shoulder sell on 7RB chart, nice run down to 25 level.

[Snow Dog 10]

Around LO we had a high vol shooting star on 15 min, a push down and another high vol push up. That never followed through.

 

1st sell the lh at 5623, 2nd sell 5584 nice lh below the RN. This was 3rd sell of the day, exit target the 50 psych level.

 

All in all a great morning for system.

[Snow Dog 10]

Had 2 days of no trades and got a little lazy posting. Some (not all) trades from Y and today.

[Snow Dog 10]

Playing around with CII indi which is good on divergence in particular for 2b trades.

[FulcrumTrader 10]

Took this lh sell. 2 x 15 min shooting stars, the 2nd one on lower vol. 5 min shooting star. Darn it just missed our exit we were looking for it to get to pivot/25 and missed with 4 or 5 pips. Out at BE after getting to +15.

 

What is the VOLUME subgraph on your chart based from.....just uptick/downtick action right (no actual traded volume info)?

 

TIA!

[Snow Dog 10]

What is the VOLUME subgraph on your chart based from.....just uptick/downtick action right (no actual traded volume info)?

 

TIA!

 

My understanding is that its the tick data. The normal mt4 volume indi.

 

There is lots of good vol spread analysis info out there. Even if YOU DON"T believe vol info is reliable (I believe it is actually as same patterns repeat over and over - coincidence??) for forex it WILL (I believe) help with your candlestick analysis.

 

Some rec tradeguider but I find fxpro is good and comparable to tradeguider and free.

 

Cheers

[FulcrumTrader 10]

Sounds good....thanks!

[Snow Dog 10]

No trades yesterday.

 

GU

We did not take 30 min 2b buy set up as we wanted to stay with trend. 15 min had a high vol hammer.

 

I don't know how much this is stretching the rules.

 

5 min chart, vol is falling off on the move up to 25 psych level. In the big picture we're still on a lh, however we are running above the last 5 min lh with a few pips. FH half hour reversal time.

 

We took the trade FH reversal, low vol move up against the trend, psych level break failed, supp/res level obvious, a 2b possible set up on the last high 8 candles earlier (5 min chart).

 

Exit when break below RN hesitated and my auto +20 bank indi (Mrs V) was going crazy, +23.