Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

Flawless execution. You don't need to buy the absolute low or sell the absolute high to make money. Flawless execution means acting on an opportunity in terms of your rules the moment that you see it. Act without hesitation. Follow your rules flawlessly.

[Snow Dog 10]

In this business protecting yourself and acting in your own best interests is so much more important than taking a chance. Its not even close. Remember you are trading, not gambling.

 

Keep yourself out of bad losing trades, the quality winning trades per your system will come.

[Snow Dog 10]

Trade what you see not what you think. Don't get locked into an opinion about direction. You could be wrong just as easily as right.

[Snow Dog 10]

Build a strong self image.

 

Learn to relax. Feel good about yourself.

 

Think clearly, got major problems in your life? If you do it's probably not a good time to trade.

 

Picture yourself as a successful trader.

[Snow Dog 10]

Have you looked at how your system stacks up in a trending (up and down) as well as a ranging market?

[Snow Dog 10]

Don't carry on making the same mistakes, if your system is not working stop trading real money and go back to the drawing board. Making the same mistakes is going to give you the same results and it isn't pretty.

[Snow Dog 10]

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments.

 

If you can get this simple concept right you'll probably have a great trading career. The only trick is it's a massive all embracing concept.

 

Discipline to:

 

1)Take the time and effort to check your trading plan works (in up/down/ranging markets).

2)Execute flawlessly. This doesn't mean every trade is a winner (they won't be) but it means to trade when you see your rules play out.

3)Not chase a move simply because you are scared you'll miss out, there are more trades coming.

4)Know the difference between a price move and a trade. A trade is something that complies with your rules. A price move is a random jump in the market that you couldn't have anticipated.

 

So plan your trades, trade your plan and avoid the wrong trades.

[Snow Dog 10]

Nothing works 100% of the time, some things happen regularly enough to take note of. These are some of those thoughts on trading gbpusd.

 

1)GU likes 50% fib's

2)GU likes the 25/75 psych levels

3)The first 15 minutes in Frankfurt trading (European open, Frankies hour or FH) is often a fake out and we rarely trade then. The exception being 100% system trades.

4)A typical range for FH is 40 pips, upper range 60.

5)Bank your pips in FH.

6)We do not trade a 2nd move in same direction in FH, especially if the range is close to complete and we 30 mins in that hour.

7)Frankie often has a half hour reversal. Some traders I like think the FH move is often just a fake out move for the London session. Some call it the London open head fake.

8)Stop sweeps. If price is falling and goes below 15, it can often fall below the even number to 85. The opposite is also true if price is rising through 85 area it can often go above the round number to 15.

9)We like to trade London session until price has moved around 125 pips.

10)UK News events generally move GU in 1 direction (US news events can be much more volatile).

[SunTrader 10]

IMHO you should rethink that last one.

[Snow Dog 10]

IMHO you should rethink that last one.

 

Do you mean the whole last post or item 10 in last post. Either way thats my experience. Perhaps though to be more specific once UK news events are out they tend to move the market in one direction in the short term. In my experience.

 

Apologies for my part in getting off on the wrong foot.

 

Cheers.

[SunTrader 10]

You've been busy.

 

Sometimes TL throws you a curve. When I opened email link to what I thought was your last post somehow the one I was referencing was 2 pages back. :doh:

 

This is the one I disagree with slightly:

 

"Time has no bearing on money. You could earn 5% in an hour more than you get from a bank account in a year. That has no bearing on whether the market is going to carry on in the same direction. Nobody went broke banking profits".

 

+ + +

 

Although I am optimistic by nature I like to concentrate on how much I can lose because "you have to survive to thrive". And the other point is you sure can go broke banking profits.

[Snow Dog 10]

You've been busy.

 

Sometimes TL throws you a curve. When I opened email link to what I thought was your last post somehow the one I was referencing was 2 pages back. :doh:

 

This is the one I disagree with slightly:

 

"Time has no bearing on money. You could earn 5% in an hour more than you get from a bank account in a year. That has no bearing on whether the market is going to carry on in the same direction. Nobody went broke banking profits".

 

+ + +

 

Although I am optimistic by nature I like to concentrate on how much I can lose because "you have to survive to thrive". And the other point is you sure can go broke banking profits.

 

The point I was trying to make is the "I'm up 100 this thing is going to go to the sky" mentality and the trade gets taken out at BE or worse a loss. In that case time indeed has no bearing on money in trading. You could be up 100 pips in an hour or two, that does not mean its going further.

 

I think we'll have to agree to dis-agree on nobody went broke banking profits. Banking steadily does wonderful things for confidence etc etc.

 

My biggest problem is letting trades run, something I strive to improve.

[Snow Dog 10]

Had an earlier BE.

 

Mrs V sold this one as per a chat of ours and (her trade her exit call) exited at 50 level +25

 

I thought early as the same 39/28 targets from yesterday should apply.

[Snow Dog 10]

We are getting good entries and missing out on many bigger moves. Amending exit strategy to:

 

7-9 am gmt exits will be taken at key levels due to the small ranges in Frankies hour that typically exist.

 

After 9 am gmt we will look for the FH/LO range to break (there is typically a head fake move in that time). Once that has happened we will look to bank 50-75% of trade at a key level, stop to BE. We will look to re-enter with full trade size hl/lh's in line with move. Again exiting 50/75% at next key target. Moving stop from original position along.

 

This alows scaling without risk exceeding 1.5%.

 

We will endeavour to trade through news events.

[Snow Dog 10]

When price hesitated earlier at 5291 9.35 fxpro chart time I sold the 1 min lh for -9.

 

When the LO move down failed bought the 1 min hl for a 85/15 trade for +21. R1 the target 5318.

[Snow Dog 10]

Prev 1hr was positive close but this was a lh below that 1hr low. Out half at +38, moved stop to just above 50 level, bal at +18.

[Snow Dog 10]

Missed the lh at 5482, pity, sold the lh at 65, out half at +16 bal at BE.

[Snow Dog 10]

After ej had doji on 1 hr we had a hl buy at 112.50 out -11.

[Snow Dog 10]

Was out at the shops and missed this perfect system trade in line with pos 1hr close, pos 15 min close, nice 5 min hl little no upper wick on entry candle.

 

Just showing as yet another example.

[Snow Dog 10]

Got distracted and missed prob trade of day so far on ej but never mind.

 

First trade was a gu lh against the pos close 15 min but it was another inside bar and we had a lower close on 5 min followed by a shooting star.

 

Scalped 11 pips.

[Snow Dog 10]

A 1 min lh when it couldn't even retrace to D pivot 5472/75 area. Out at dble btm for 9. I see it has gone lower but in view of small ranges and poor vol reasonably happy.

[daedalus 10]

Excellent thread. I think the LH/HL stuff is the "holy grail" as far as trading goes... thats all the market can do, and when you can learn to read those turning points its can be very profitable.

 

I have some questions though about your charts and where your entries actually are because the line overlaps a lot of places on the chart... Can you specify like on your last post at what time the trade was entered?

 

It seems like you place your buy/sell stops slightly inside of the LH/HL patterns rather than 1 tick outside of them? ANy reason for this? Are you concerned you'll catch a double bottom/top that would otherwise not break in favor?

 

Also, where are you placing your initial stops and managing them during the trades?

 

My biggest issue with these trades is that if I place a buy/sell stop outside the H/L of the LH/HL and then place my stop loss order on the opposite side of the LH/HL then I have HUGE amounts of risk and its very difficult to get 1:1 in a lot of instances, let alone 2:1 or greater.

 

Any insights?

[Snow Dog 10]

Excellent thread. I think the LH/HL stuff is the "holy grail" as far as trading goes... thats all the market can do, and when you can learn to read those turning points its can be very profitable.

 

I have some questions though about your charts and where your entries actually are because the line overlaps a lot of places on the chart... Can you specify like on your last post at what time the trade was entered?

 

It seems like you place your buy/sell stops slightly inside of the LH/HL patterns rather than 1 tick outside of them? ANy reason for this? Are you concerned you'll catch a double bottom/top that would otherwise not break in favor?

 

Also, where are you placing your initial stops and managing them during the trades?

 

My biggest issue with these trades is that if I place a buy/sell stop outside the H/L of the LH/HL and then place my stop loss order on the opposite side of the LH/HL then I have HUGE amounts of risk and its very difficult to get 1:1 in a lot of instances, let alone 2:1 or greater.

 

Any insights?

 

Cheers.

 

11.55 fxpro time which is 9.55gmt. I try to show arrows where I've entered on all charts.

 

In particular with gu I've just come around to a 15 pip stop. If its going to break that chances are it woud take out something more substantial. If the move is right but chops chances are you'll get another entry soon. I move to BE relatively quickly. So if I've got the hl/lh in terms of rules its 15 pips for gu and I have no worries about where prev hl/lh was.

 

If you have not got the 1st/2nd hl/lh in run you really are risking running into the counter trend hl/lh.

 

I place a lot of emphasis on candles to try and ensure I'm in the right move from the right place (pivot, psych level including 25/75 for gu etc etc).

[Snow Dog 10]

We were concerned with this being counter trend and left.

 

It was a perfect system trade, 1 hr shooting star, 15 min neg close on higher vol. The 5 min shooting star with little/low lower wick confirms one of our basic trading thoughts, weaker bounce from key level (RN, W M4 and Y's high combo) so should be sell.

 

Why weaker bounce from key level and why does it generally work. IMHO if the big boys were buying 5600 (and any other key level) it should go from there right? Prior to the SS arrow down pa had touched 5600 twice, why hadn't the big boys bought already?

 

A missed opportunity, once again when ALL makes sense ito your rules take the trade.

[cable.trader 10]

I would say you're in a counter trend, any time frame. Considering the "setup" definition, you would apply appropriate entry and exit. Your setup entry today was perfect, yesterday, I think you missed the boat unless that wasn't your first position in it. Your two trades are a brilliant way to practically demonstrate the difficulties of trading a counter trend. It begs to ask when it is too early and when it is too late, or should I bother at all?

 

I wouldn't consider 1.56 that significant at that point. What you call the big boys, they are already long, probably long time ago. Or it could be the "additional" gains that continued at unusual time, yesterday around noon (as a matter of fact, it started around 5:11:34 am est, if you paid attention), and continued overnight in asia. Price might not be that attractive, unless you really greedy.

 

I don't see any significant price progression around the "open" 3am est on any day this week (around the time you made the trades). As a matter of fact, on the contrary. Your "setup" today would work every day this week. Having said that, that is a dynamic to consider, maybe something else is going on.

 

I'd be careful not to "overuse" the counter trend, they don't last. But you probably know this already.

As a side note, if you went the other way, you'd do better. That's where the trend is and the context.

 

Good stuff, keep it going.

Good Luck.