Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 8 Apr

EUR - Back to the support/resistance level from Feb-Apr '12 and Jan '13. W candle closed positive close to the previous weeks high. D closed positive with an upper wick. 4hr flow higher high higher low, RSI has crossed lower. D suggest up, there is a resistance level that we can react lower to and the COT data shows the big boys are bearish on EUR. Can go either way today.

Result: Large engulfing hammer off the Asian lows started move up.

 

GU - W closed positive hammer and we seem to be through the Dec and May '12 low resistance levels. D positive close, 4hr flow higher. Bias up.

Result: Up bias did not play out with W M3 1.5348 holding for about 16 hours. Fell to the W Pivot 1.5242 and the highs from 25 Mar and 2 Apr.

 

EJ - W engulfing close. D positive close, 4hr flow one way up. Bias up.

Result: Up bias played out.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 9 Apr

EUR - D closed positive but within the 1.3038 highs of 5 Apr. Asian session broke higher through this level. 4hr flow higher high higher low but showing sell divergence. We'll see if the break above this resistance levels holds. Bias up, potential to fall with the 4hr divergence in particular if a move up on 1hr fails giving a double top /lower high to switch flow down.

 

GU - D closed negative inside bar, still above 8lwma. D is still on higher high higher low. On 5th we shot through the area of the 1.5268 resistance level on news. 4hr RSI did cross signal line lower yesterday to signal a scalp sell but we are still on higher high higher low. Bias up but we'll have to see the reaction higher from here, a failure to move up would give a lower high and reverse the flow.

 

EJ - D positive close. 4hr showing divergence and has gone virtually straight up from 119-129. Would be looking for any retrace lower as dip in uptrend. Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 9 Apr

 

EUR - Bias up, potential to fall with the 4hr divergence in particular if a move up on 1hr fails giving a double top /lower high to switch flow down.

Result: 4hr hammer stopped the move down. The move up was difficult to trade with several 1hr upper wicks, a nice hammer with little/no upper wick after US news did allow a trade.

 

GU - Bias up but we'll have to see the reaction higher from here, a failure to move up would give a lower high and reverse the flow.

Result: Lots of lower wicks on 1hr before/after London open put stopped any move down and up bias played out.

EJ - D positive close. 4hr showing divergence and has gone virtually straight up from 119-129. Would be looking for any retrace lower as dip in uptrend. Bias up.

Result: 1hr hammer at London open set the stage for up bias to play out. We saw a shooting star immediately after the hammer on 1hr (one of our dreaded candle set ups) and then several hours of chop followed. Took several hours for a nice 1hr candle set up which had captured most of the move.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 10 Apr

EUR - D positive close at/approaching the levels where rallies in downtrend sold off in March. This move up is much more significant. 4hr divergence continues, paused at W R1. 1hr higher high higher low is in tact, negative sell divergence. Bias up but we have key levels in play, divergences so there is potential for fall should 1hr close negative.

 

GU - D closed positive but could not break the previous 2 day highs. 4hr higher high higher low, W M3 approaching. Bias up with potential to fall from the key levels.

 

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr clearly showing the struggle to go higher at the W pivot, negative divergence. 4hr hammer then positive close stopped the divergence playing out yesterday. Bias up until price action confirms any potential sell.

[hothand250 10]

  Snow Dog said:

Got this gu buy yesterday. 1hr up 15 min nice hl. Exit +20.

see the bottoming tail bar before the bullish engulfing pattern before it crossed the EMA at the support level where you get your bullish engulfing and a bull elephant bar after that I would have put stop under that bottoming tail bar and enter trade as soon as the hi of that bottoming tail bar was taken out catching most of the first bullishish engulfing bar and placing stop under bottoming tail bar so if I'm wrong I have small stop and also it would prove my analysis of that support level wrong so I wouldn't want to be long there if I was wrong that way I have far better risk/reward I don't use indicators either

I just use supply and demand zones as well as candle formations mainly the engulfing and topping and bottoming tail bars and I don't like entering trades unless I have 3x the reward to risk.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ11 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way.

 

GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold.

 

EJ - Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

  hothand250 said:

see the bottoming tail bar before the bullish engulfing pattern before it crossed the EMA at the support level where you get your bullish engulfing and a bull elephant bar after that I would have put stop under that bottoming tail bar and enter trade as soon as the hi of that bottoming tail bar was taken out catching most of the first bullishish engulfing bar and placing stop under bottoming tail bar so if I'm wrong I have small stop and also it would prove my analysis of that support level wrong so I wouldn't want to be long there if I was wrong that way I have far better risk/reward I don't use indicators either

I just use supply and demand zones as well as candle formations mainly the engulfing and topping and bottoming tail bars and I don't like entering trades unless I have 3x the reward to risk.

 

Not sure what days trade this refers to?

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 11 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way.

Result: Clean candles no upper wicks in early move before London open. Some upper wicks after London open, very smooth higher low wave on 15 min.

 

GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold.

Result: Bias up played out, if you missed this early move then there wasn't another entry on 15 min.

 

EJ - Bias up.

Result: Bias up did play out in a choppy manner.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 12 Apr

EUR - D closed positive with an upper wick, above 8lwma. Still held by the Mar high resistance level. 4hr is still showing negative divergence whilst managing to stay on higher high higher low flow, seems to struggle above W R1. A 4hr negative close would flip that over giving a lower high and most likely crosses of 8lwma and RSI. Yesterday 1hr had a double top with divergence, then still made a higher low. No bias can go either way.

 

GU - D closed positive but we are in the area of the July '12 lows. 4hr higher high higher low flow but showing negative divergence. We'll see how this 4hr closes, potential double top forming.

 

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr still making higher highs at W M4, negative divergence, moves higher seem to be running out of steam. RSI has crossed lower and we are moving below the 8lwma. Bias up until 4hr can give a sell signal.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 15 Apr

EUR - The 3 days last week where we could not move higher means we are in a range roughly between W M2 1.3038 and W M3 1.3123. 4hr has signaled lower so if the W pivot fails would expect a move down to W M2/the lows of the last few days.

 

GU - Moved up to the identified resistance level (see yesterdays blog post), 1.5383 during Asian session and sold off strongly. We'll see if the move below the W pivot 1.5328 can hold. If the current 4hr closes above the W pivot with a long wick that would suggest a false break. If it does go lower targets will be W M2 and W S1 the general areas of the last 4hr higher lows from last week.

 

EJ - Asian session had a strong move down and we reached the identified area 127.70-20 high from February (see yesterdays blog post). After such strong moves early in Asian session only time will tell if London open is sideways. The flow certainly switched lower but having reached the support level so quickly we can only watch and see the reaction.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 17 Apr

 

EUR - The previously identified support level above 1.3000/W M2 1.3038 held. D higher low engulfing close should follow through higher. We have stopped at the Sept highs 1.3070 area and there are two W pivots to contend with. Also the over sized D candles sometimes don't follow through, should 4hr signal lower with an engulfing negative close after 3 upper wicks would flip bias lower. Bias up with potential to go lower.

 

GU - The identified lower support level held. D positive close still constrained by the immediate resistance level and W M3 1.5374, higher high higher low flow still in tact. 4hr appears to close to completing 3 candles with upper wicks rejecting move up. Bias up, we can move lower from the upper resistance levels.

 

EJ - The evening star pattern followed through lower reaching the 125.60 support level. D then closed positive, 4hr flow up. Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 18 Apr

 

EUR - D closed negative at the 1.3000 support level (Feb-Apr '12). We have W S1 at 1.3000 also. The EUR can easily go sideways for a week before a good run. This range is bigger than EUR's typical sideways moves. 1hr did have a higher low after divergence move up during Asian session. We can go up further from 1.3000 but my bias down. The D candle should follow through lower and the move up through W M3 and the 1.3125 resistance level was strongly rejected yesterday. W pivot 1.3071 and resistance level/W M3 1.3123 could provide sell areas.

 

GU - D engulfing close, 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - Has me a little stumped at the moment. D closed a doji, its not clear if 4hr is on a higher low or a lower high. No bias.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 18 Apr

 

EUR - D closed negative at the 1.3000 support level (Feb-Apr '12). We have W S1 at 1.3000 also. The EUR can easily go sideways for a week before a good run. This range is bigger than EUR's typical sideways moves. 1hr did have a higher low after divergence move up during Asian session. We can go up further from 1.3000 but my bias down. The D candle should follow through lower and the move up through W M3 and the 1.3125 resistance level was strongly rejected yesterday. W pivot 1.3071 and resistance level/W M3 1.3123 could provide sell areas.

Result: The 1.3000 support level held, the big engulfing 1hr close had no follow through higher.

 

GU - D engulfing close, 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

Result: The move down stopped at the previous days low and had a decent bounce.

 

EJ - Has me a little stumped at the moment. D closed a doji, its not clear if 4hr is on a higher low or a lower high. No bias.

Result: Lots of 1hr lower wicks at London open saw move up, then became quite choppy.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 19 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star off the 1.3000 support level which is proving a tough nut to crack. The bounce up was not significant enough to change my down bias with obvious chance of buyers at the support level.

 

GU - D closed positive but a weak close, still below 8lwma and RSI not crossed higher. 4hr just closed positive so strictly speaking not on lower higher lower low. We are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up but a move lower would be no surprise.

 

EJ - D close still unconvincing. 4hr positive so would expect some move up. A reversal down again would be no surprise.

[Questor 10]

HL's and HH's for UJ today as everyone at the G-20 meeting agrees that what Japan is doing really is okay. Christine Lagarde even APPLAUDS it!

 

Nothing will get done of course, but since everyone at the meeting is long UJ - no worries about being able to afford an escape hatch when the world falls apart (ya know, mobs with pitch forks... that kinda thing).

[Snow Dog 10]

Why recap previous days price action?

I have been asked why do I do recaps of previous days trading. The answer is very simple.

 

It absolutely tells me if my take on trading is working for me or if it needs tweaking. In a nutshell, trade with the trend until counter trend rules apply.

Hopefully its showing that you actually can get a good idea of the market before it happens (daily view is done a couple of hours before London open) and that (news spikes excluded) trades can be expected or taken with more confidence.

Helps with understanding the subtleties that different pairs have, size of candles to avoid, times to trade etc etc.

 

Please see the GU recap below. I don't have know what GU is going to do. IF it is going to fall I know from my D charts that we have struggled to break above 1.5400 for 2 weeks. I have no clue if its turning where but the W pivot, W M3 or in this case R2 just below W M3 are good places.

 

So when you get this kind of lower high over 4hrs a sell would not be a complete surprise.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 19 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star off the 1.3000 support level which is proving a tough nut to crack. The bounce up was not significant enough to change my down bias with obvious chance of buyers at the support level.

Result: Up and down day with little follow through.

 

GU - D closed positive but a weak close, still below 8lwma and RSI not crossed higher. 4hr just closed positive so strictly speaking not on lower higher lower low. We are above 50 RSI on all 3 time frames so bias up but a move lower would be no surprise.

Result: Up and down day but much cleaner that EUR's 1hr chart. Move up in line with 4hr higher low 3 bar reversal. Move down from the W M3 pivot/general resistance area identified on D charts.

 

EJ - D close still unconvincing. 4hr positive so would expect some move up. A reversal down again would be no surprise.

Result: Move up as per bias but after London open no follow through.

[Snow Dog 10]

Out of time this morning, 4hr charts with pivots and weekly charts on the blog. Some interesting things brewing on those weekly charts.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 22 Apr

 

EUR - The support/resistance levels 1.3000-1.3120 are still containing price. 1hr 50 ema flat signaling a general sideways range.

 

GU - Lower high lower low flow 1hr, bias down.

 

EJ - Higher high higher low flow 1hr, bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 23 Apr

EUR - D shooting star followed by a hammer, within the identified support/resistance levels.Overall bias down but with the support level 1.3000 holding would look elsewhere until the range breaks.

Result: Moved up to the W pivot 1.3084 and fell quickly in line with the bias but with a 60 pip entry candle not a set up we would trade.

 

GU - D positive close but again not very inspiring. 4hr positive divergence at the lows but that could have played out. 4hr evening star pattern suggests move lower. 4hr still on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow can switch positive.

Result: Down bias played out until 1hr lower wick clearly rejecting the move below W M2 1.5222.

 

EJ - D negative close with a lower wick. 4hr, 1hr flow on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow switches positive.

Result: Down bias played out until the Feb highs were reached and after approx 5 hours moved up.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 24 Apr

EUR - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal, below 8lwma and below 50 level. 4hr lower high lower low flow in tact. Obviously the buyers at 1.30 may not have finished yet so care with entry required as always. We have W S1 at 1.2967 and this is the general area from Feb/Mar where there was also support. Bias down.

 

GU - D closed negative below 8 lwma and below RSI 50 level. The 1.52 level is still providing support but we did make a new low (with divergence on 4hr) and a lower high (1.5286 so regard divergence as having played out). There is the idea of what doesn't go down will go up but for now until price action confirms otherwise retaining down bias.

 

EJ - D closed again with a big lower wick bouncing off the Feb high. I am having difficulty reading EJ again today and can only suggest the trading basics of trend and support/resistance levels (i.e. trading the reaction to those levels).