Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 20 Mar

EUR - D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

GU - After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.

 

EJ - Similar picture to EUR, bias down.

[Snow Dog 10]

Sold GU, partly on the strong conviction of how 4hr looked, at 1.5081 out +31. Evening star pattern, 3 bar reversal, reject of move above RN in line with bias.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 20 Mar, EUR higher low following divergence

EUR - View was: D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

The down bias never played out. That means we are going counter to the D trend so we have to assess if those rules are in play. We had a D support level at 1.2878. It looked like that was broken lower but that move struggled. We had 4hr positive divergence. Then there were 1hr higher lows going into Frankfurt open and again after London open, higher lows following divergence normally a good set up. The 1hr did show the short term flow had flipped to buys.

 

 

GU - View was: After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.

Down bias did play out until the news provided some wild swings again.

 

EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR, bias down.

Very similar picture to EUR.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 21 Mar

EUR - D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. Ralph Shell has posted an article (see blog) and he is looking at the weekend gap to get closed with a move to 1.3050. Anyway D RSI has crossed but below 50 level, we could not break the D 8lwma. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.

 

GU - D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.

 

EJ - D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Snow Dog

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 21 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.

A lower fall on 1hr going into London open, after that chopped around in a small range.

 

GU - View was: D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.

A higher low on 1hr going into London open might have been difficult to trade with the upper wicks.

 

EJ - View was: D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.

The 1 day up 1 day down continued. 4hr evening star pattern at W M2, 1hr lower high into London open signaled the fall.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 22 Mar

EUR - D negative close back into trend RSI below 50 level, daily lower high lower low flow intact, price stopped at support level. 4 hr strong rejection of the W S1 level 1.2954 with upper wicks. W M1 provided support during the day at 1.2894. Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.

 

GU - D positive close at the top of the recent range also recent resistance level 1.5160, RSI above 50 level/ma, D higher low formed. 4 hr move up stalled at the resistance level from late Feb/early March 1.5180-1.5200 with large upper wicks. RSI flat but above 50 level. 1 hr higher flow intact but move up appears to be weakening. Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.

 

EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma.

4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.

[Snow Dog 10]

4hr charts with W pivots

Support and resistance levels and W pivots, their importance yet again very clear.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 22 Mar

EUR - Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.

Result: Bounce up from support/W M1 combination.

GU - Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.

Result: Bias up played out.

 

EJ - I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.

Result: Bounce up from the lows/W S3 combination.

[JoeSo123 10]

I can tell when it is the first HL or LH 100% of the time - in hindsight.

How can you tell about this ?

[Snow Dog 10]

How can you tell about this ?

 

Read the thread, you'll see that 99% of trades posted are live charts with the trade buy/sell line there for all to see.

 

There are some basics around certain times of the day that happen regularly. 30 mins before to 30 mins after London open there is often a reversal. Breaking out of the immediate prior Asian range only to reverse and go the other way.

 

Pre/early US session there is often a weak hesitation candle on 1hr that fails only for US to continue the direction set by London. Don't confuse this with strong engulfing closes or news reversals.

 

London close reversals occur regularly.

 

None of these happen 100% of the time but they are regular enough to build a trading plan around. You have to research the times of the day you trade and see for yourself. You should be doing that regardless of the trading method you will use.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 25 Mar

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.

 

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.

 

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 25 Mar, EUR GU lower high following divergence

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.

Result: 1.3050/W R1 held, a double top going into London open. The 1hr lower high that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.

 

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.

Result: The resistance level held. 1hr lower high going into London open that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.

 

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.

Result: Bias up did not play out. The 1hr lower high before and after London open saw the flow change and EJ followed the EUR

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 26 Mar

We will have to see what the further reaction is to the decision to have private investors in Cyprus having bank deposits over 100,000 Euro's take a massive hit to save the banks? Surely a further flight to safety if you have money in a country with a risky economy i.e. southern Europe.

 

EUR - D engulfing close that couldn't break below the March lows (after a 170 pip run down no problem there). Trend resumed, bias down.

 

GU - D negative close that could not get a cross of RSI's signal line or the 8 lwma. A negative close on 1hr would be another low high. Whilst the D candle is not convincing 1hr bias down for now.

 

EJ - D engulfing negative close. 4hr on lower high lower low, 1hr had a higher low in Asian session overnight. That seems to be failing on the candle currently open. A D candle as good as that should follow through lower even if not at the pace of yesterday. Bias down.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 27 Mar

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.

 

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.

 

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 27 Mar, EUR bounce from key level

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.

Result: The idea of the weaker bounce from a key level, bounce up in this case, played out. W M1 failed down bias played out nicely.

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.

Result: Down bias played out.

 

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.

Result: The upper resistance levels held, down bias played out.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 28 Mar

Not sure if the big boys will have today as their effective quarter end with the holidays coming up. A performance bonus based on profits could be improved if positions are stretched at the close. Would have to think for EUR and GU that would be more downside.

 

EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down.

 

GU - Small negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down.

 

EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.

[Snow Dog 10]

EJ popped up to 120.75 a clear SR level if you look at 1hr from 26 Mar to now. Sold the 15 min lh little/no lower wick to get back into down bias, entry 120.48. Exit near recent lows/W pivot +60.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 28 Mar

EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down.

Result: Move down in line with bias around London open. Previous days low held, decent bounce higher.

 

GU - Small D negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down.

Result: Did move down but no real follow through lower from the previous weak D close.

EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.

Result: A nice move down around London open in line with bias. A big doji on 1hr with divergence at the recent lows signaled a move up.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 2 Apr

EUR - D closed positive and we have crossed the 8lwma and RSI its signal line. 4hr made a higher low yesterday and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell.

 

GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today.

 

EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 2 Apr - GU lower high following divergence

EUR - We have stopped at the Dec lows/W pivot potential resistance level, the Asian session struggled to break Fri's high which is not uncommon. 1hr is showing negative divergence. Can go either way today, at the moment our 4hr and 1hr suggest flow up. This can be a rally in downtrend but as flow is up at the moment we need our counter trend rules to kick in. We are at a resistance level/W pivot, have 1hr divergence and looks like we have a 5hr stall so the potential is there for a sell.

Result: Lower high after divergence played out with a move lower. Lots of lower wicks made entry difficult.

GU - Very similar picture to EUR D closed positive, 4hr and 1hr flow up, 1hr negative divergence. Stopped at the Jun low resistance level. can go either way today.

Result: Lower high after divergence, move played out with clean candles (no lower wicks).

EJ - D neg close below RSI 50 level. 4hr 1hr flow down. Bias down.

Result: Down bias did not play out, there was lots of warnings with lower wicks on 4hr and 1hr

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 3 Apr

EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower.

 

GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 3 Apr

EUR - D negative close below 8 lwma and RSI 50 level but hardly a convincing move. 4hr below RSI 50, 1hr flow lower high lower low. We are on the low from Oct '12 bias still lower.

Result: 1 Oct low held moved up after 2 x 1hr hammers.

 

GU - D engulfing negative close, 4hr below RSI 50 level, 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

Result: Down bias did not play out, moved up.

 

EJ - D closed a doji, 4hr flow still lower high lower low but lots of lower wicks, 1hr was on higher high higher low flow which seems to have stopped and looking to fail? Not really clear to me what it wants to do, looks like we are forming a triangle on 1hr, no bias. Wait for some clarity.

Result: Some decent moves but range bound.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 4 Apr

Interest rate announcements today in UK and EUR, tomorrow NFP.

 

EUR - D closed positive but we could not break above the W pivot/resistance level. 4hr RSI crosses have worked as trades even if the moves have not been significant. Asian session could not take us back up to yesterdays high. No bias we could move lower from the rejection of the W pivot (see 4hr upper wick) or continue up, will need to see good 1hr candles.

 

GU - D closed a doji, 4hr and 1hr seem to be swinging back down. Below 50 RSI level on all time frames so appears to be swinging back lower.

 

EJ - No bias D closed a small doji and there is a clear base at 119. Interest rate decision came out and we just spiked 50 pips, we'll need to see the follow through as to whether this move up fails or not.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR GU EJ 5 April

No point in doing a recap for yesterday as the moves up were all related to news, interest rates/central bank announcements.

 

NFP today. Add to that D over sized candles that often do not follow through immediately, lots of reasons to be careful this morning.

 

EUR - D engulfing close should follow through higher. If this is a change in the market the big boys will want to move the market lower to offload some of their short positions, so a D over sized candle could be followed by a one or two indecisive candles. Only time will tell if this is a true turn. Would not be surprised then to see a retrace lower. No bias.

 

GU - Same as EUR.

 

EJ - 550 pip D candle begging for a retrace. No bias.

[Snow Dog 10]

EUR EJ GU 8 Apr

No point in doing a recap as the big move was NFP related. All 3 pairs did have retraces to some extent before the big news moves up.

 

EUR - Back to the support/resistance level from Feb-Apr '12 and Jan '13. W candle closed positive close to the previous weeks high. D closed positive with an upper wick. 4hr flow higher high higher low, RSI has crossed lower. D suggest up, there is a resistance level that we can react lower to and the COT data shows the big boys are bearish on EUR. Can go either way today.

 

GU - W closed positive hammer and we seem to be through the Dec and May '12 low resistance levels. D positive close, 4hr flow higher. Bias up.

 

EJ - W engulfing close. D positive close, 4hr flow one way up. Bias up.