Higher Lows Lower Highs

[Snow Dog 10]

7 Jan

 

EUR - D, a hammer bounce off the RN 1.3000/support level. Below 50 RSI and price below its ma. 4hr on lower high lower low but has signaled a counter trend buy. 1hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Conflicting messages so no real bias, a solid 1hr close either way could set up a move.

 

GU - D, a negative close hammer off the support level 1.6000. Below 50 RSI price below its ma. 4hr lower high lower low flow, 1hr appears to have reverted back to lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - We are in the area (candle body lows from W chart) of the 2008/9 lows and the Jul-Nov 2010 highs. A major support/resistance level. D on higher low above ma but RSI did not cross its signal line. Asian session rejected the move up. 1hr flow up, bias up.

 

Monday mornings are often indecisive, perhaps will wait for US session to see if there is greater clarity.

[Snow Dog 10]

7 Jan

 

EUR - D, a hammer bounce off the RN 1.3000/support level. Below 50 RSI and price below its ma. 4hr on lower high lower low but has signaled a counter trend buy. 1hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Conflicting messages so no real bias, a solid 1hr close either way could set up a move.

 

GU - D, a negative close hammer off the support level 1.6000. Below 50 RSI price below its ma. 4hr lower high lower low flow, 1hr appears to have reverted back to lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - We are in the area (candle body lows from W chart) of the 2008/9 lows and the Jul-Nov 2010 highs. A major support/resistance level. D on higher low above ma but RSI did not cross its signal line. Asian session rejected the move up. 1hr flow up, bias up.

 

Monday mornings are often indecisive, perhaps will wait for US session to see if there is greater clarity.

 

4hr and 1hr positive closes to return to trend. 15 min hl little/no upper wick. Big thunderstorm coming here so exited at +22, pity would have liked to let this one run.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 7 Jan

 

As mentioned Monday morning did not really do much. The key levels for EUR 1.3000 and GU 1.6000 held. Both pairs had 4 hr engulfing positive closes to signal move up. We traded EJ which did not move up as much.

 

8 Jan

 

EUR - Support held, D positive close, 4hr flow now higher low, bias up. W M3 1.3180 and lows from 21-31 Dec looks a decent target area.

 

GU - Same picture as EUR. We are at a potential resistance area lows 13 Dec and 24 Dec that we could react lower to, bias up though. Target 1.6175-1.6200.

 

EJ - D close a doji at the resistance level. 4hr shows the reaction lower is getting smaller. Bias up but obviously can react to the proven resistance level.

[Snow Dog 10]

Bias was up but got no clean signals. A genuine 1hr intra day lower high engulfing close. Target was Y's low 1.6019 but looks like W M2 holding so out +25 as I have to leave computer now.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 8 Jan

 

Bias was up, with the potential for upper resistance levels to hold, they did on all pairs. The 1hr price action was poor in London morning session and we were able to sell a GU engulfing negative close, intra day lower high in US session.

 

9 Jan

 

EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down.

 

GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030.

 

EJ - The JPY authorities have done a brilliant job of managing their currency weaker to aid their exports. Whilst a negative close on D from the upper resistance level 115.50, after 5 days failing to go higher, should be sell bias today. 1hr lower high lower low flow has already been broken this morning after an Asian session 90 pip move up. Will watch carefully as I prefer to take fewer risks counter trend with JPY pairs.

[Snow Dog 10]

 

9 Jan

 

EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down.

 

GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030.

 

 

A disappointing day for a couple of reasons. Firstly Mrs V was not in front of the computer for this one. Bias for GU was down as mentioned this morning. 1hr doji preceded this 15 min lower high, engulfing close, little/no lower wick. A 60+ pip run down followed. Oh well next trade please.

[Snow Dog 10]

EJ 1hr neg close from the W pivot, 15 min lower high little/no lower wick. Just missed pressing above RN, when W M2 held out +22.

[Snow Dog 10]

1hr positive close, 15 min higher low, little/no upper wick. Failed to reach target W pivot out at BE.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 9 Jan

 

The EUR, GU down bias did play out after a failed attempt higher around LO.

 

10 Jan

 

UK MPC statement, EUR interest rates and press conference. For me after NFP easily days when I am happy to leave trading and come back after the news is out to see if there are nice price waves (higher lows, lower highs) to trade.

 

EUR - Negative D close below the ma, RSI below 50 level. 1hr lower high lower low in tact (barely). We have the proven support level 1.3000, W M2 at 1.3031 and the early Jan lows to contend with. We can obviously bounce higher from these areas but overall bias down.

 

GU - Largely a similar picture, we are at the early Dec lows 1.6000.Bias down.

 

EJ - Positive D close, 1hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up with potential to react to the highs around 115.50.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 10 Jan

 

The down bias for EUR and GU did not happen as the mentioned support levels 1.30 and 1.60 held. EJ went up as per bias.

 

11 Jan

 

EUR - Engulfing positive close in reaction to EUR rate discussions. Bias up but obviously can react lower to the highs 1.3250-1.3300.

 

GU - Bias up but can react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level.

 

EJ - Bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

 

GU - Bias up but can react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level.

 

 

1.6175 was an identified potential resistance level (a turn point 17 Oct). A 1hr shooting star going into LO and then a neg close set up this 15 min lower high move through ema/50 level. 1hr lower high after divergence. Entry after 15 min shooting star little/no lower wick.

 

Happy with pivot as a target and +31 for a CT trade.

[Snow Dog 10]

Thought I'd expand a little on thought process for this morning.

 

Left arrow up, 2b buy at Frankie open. Arrow up right is first possible trade after LO. Luckily it never followed through higher as this would have presented a problem, 1hr had closed with a decent upper wick.

 

Arrow down. 1hr candle closed negative and 15 min has a genuine lower high (as shown by the x's) 1hr into London session.

 

Add in the 6175 resistance level as mentioned above and a CT trade a decent option.

[Snow Dog 10]

Mrs V took this one but had stop at BE already before news came out. I was swimming in the pool its been about 95F here lately.

 

Daily pivot held the CT move down for 3 hours. 15 min engulfing close co-incided with 1hr engulfing positive close. 15 min hammer little/no upper wick. Exit at the Y's high/todays open combo for +39.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 11 Jan

 

EUR and EJ - Bias up played out.

 

GU - Price did react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level. A lower high close after divergence on 1hr. Then became very volatile between 1.6090 and 1.6175.

 

14 Jan

 

EUR - D positive close, 4hr and 1hr flow higher high higher low. We are in the area of 26 Mar-3 Apr highs. D is showing divergence, price not showing signs of stopping yet. Bias up next target the Feb highs 1.3450-90.

 

GU - D double top high lower close. 4hr and 1hr charts not as clean as EUR. We are on or above RSI 50 levels, above the ma's and Asian session went up with EUR so bias up.

 

EJ - We are at a resistance level but bias up. The next resistance level I see is the Apr '11 high 123.00.

[Snow Dog 10]

Even though the bias was up Y we did OK not to get sucked into a losing trade see arrows up, on Mon mornings (like Fri's) we are very careful. Unfortunately wasn't in front of the computer for the engulfing negative close, that broke below the immediate range, arrow down.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 14 Jan

 

The upper resistance levels held. Of the set ups for counter trend I preferred the 1hr engulfing close on GU. We missed it, no problem today is another opportunity.

 

15 Jan

 

EUR - No real progress made higher and D closed a doji. 4hr shows signs of flipping over should the current candle closes negative. That may signal a double top, scalp sell (as not yet confirmed by the D). Only time will tell if this is a pause in uptrend or start of a turn. The Mar '12 highs are a major resistance level. We had support yesterday 1.3335.

 

GU - D negative close with a decent lower wick. At present we are bouncing between W pivots and support/resistance levels. 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Support at 1.6000.

 

EJ - D closed on the resistance level and dropped 50 pips in Asian session. It appears the 4hr divergence is now playing out. We moved aggressively away from our D lwma due to the jump on 10th, a pause up is expected. Viewing this as a dip in uptrend, bias up.

[Snow Dog 10]

Yesterday only had a BE trade. Mrs V looked at JPY but missed/chickened out. After the choppy GU pa moved stop a little (actually a lot) quicker than normal and out at BE. No problem on such a day thats absolutely no big deal at all.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 15 Jan

 

EUR - Poor price action, the 4hr did flip over and the bias down did play out but the main move lower was late in US session.

 

GU - Very choppy, small range with the lower resistance level holding.

 

EJ - A major move down started with an engulfing close 4hr. In the bigger picture on D this can still be dip in uptrend. Several hours of 1hr candles up getting taken out with 1hr move down. That gives pause for thought.

 

16 Jan

 

EUR - D negative close forming an evening star pattern in the area of the Dec highs, RSI not crossed lower, not below lwma as yet. D divergence has played out. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level and 1hr flow on lower high lower low. In view of D evening star pattern and 1hr flow bias down but we can react to the support level 1.3250/90.

 

GU - D doji, RSI flat below 50 level. 4hr and 1hr sideways moves but we are below/on the RSI 50 level and below ma's. That suggests bias down but would like to see solid lower closes for a trade.

 

EJ - D solid negative engulfing close, the range of the previous 2 days. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level. Perhaps the JPY authorities have taken their foot off the weak yen for the moment. I struggle to think we'll have a repeat of yesterday however bias now down until 1hr flow turns up. Can the next support level 115.50/116.00 be reached?

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 16 Jan

 

The down bias was more pronounced on GU. Whilst there were good selling trades on EUR (and EJ) the support above 1.3250 gave buy opportunites for counter trend trades from a proven support level.

 

17 Jan

 

EUR - D close a hammer and we have not closed below our lwma or had RSI cross. No bias, until we break the immediate range it seems that scalp buys and sells from 1hr/15 min candles near the most recent price extremes may be effective.

 

GU - D negative close, 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - D close a hammer. 4hr flow on lower high lower low. A 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. Bias down. As per EUR recently there have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges. Targets 116.45 yesterdays low, then perhaps the 116.00 support level.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 17 Jan

 

EUR - No bias for the day pending break of immediate range. It broke up.

 

GU - Bias was down, had a push up at London open into the area of 4-15 Jan lows/W S1, and a fall from there.

 

EJ - Bias was down but we had D hammer. In addition a 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. There have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges.That happened fairly early. After my post yesterday a 1hr morning star pattern unfolded and 4hr flow halted.

 

18 Jan

 

EUR - Engulfing D close at the resistance level just below 1.3400. 1hr flow higher high higher low. This D higher low close is completely different to the reaction from this level at the beginning of April '12. Bias up with the potential to go lower from the highs.

 

GU - D closed a doji perhaps showing divergence (price action yet to confirm) stopping at the previously identified support level 1.5950. If the 1hr does not fall we will have a higher low. No bias can go either way.

 

EJ - D engulfing close (close higher than the previous 2 candle closes). Looks like BOJ not letting their hard work go to waste. Next target 123.00. Bias up.

[Niko 10]

Interesting thread. Have you backtested all of your setups?

[Snow Dog 10]

Interesting thread. Have you backtested all of your setups?

 

Endlessly.

 

The only things that have changed is that now entries mainly from 15 min chart. I have better rules for trend v counter trend. I have a greater awareness of trading with the 1hr flow.

 

Basics per 1st post still apply.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 18 Jan

 

EUR bias was up with potential to go lower from the highs (1.3400 area). It fell with an evening star pattern on 15 min.

 

GU was no bias could have gone either way. Again the move above the immediate range just before London open was rejected with a doji and also completed an evening star pattern. there was then a weak pre US open push up reverting to trend after US news.

 

EJ did not follow bias up.

 

21 Jan

 

EUR - A negative close day that did not challenge last weeks lows. 4hr going sideways within the 1.3400-1.3250 range. Direction at this time is unclear.

 

GU - All time frames below RSI 50 level with some divergence on 1hr. Bias down but we have the Nov support area 1.5825 approaching. 4hr and 1hr flows down.

 

EJ - D doji with divergence, 4hr divergence. 4hr and 1hr RSI crossed below their signal lines so short term sell bias, D has not as yet agreed.

[Snow Dog 10]

Recap 21 Jan

 

The US holidays and poor EUR price action continued yesterday with no moves. GU did give a trade down in line with bias when 1hr engulfing closed negative and a little later 4hr lower high closed negative. EJ gave a couple of scalp sells in line with short term sell bias.

 

22 Jan

 

EUR - D close gives no insight and a 50 pip bounce up late Asian session needs to hold. The 4hr is still in effect going sideways. Will be looking for clarity on flow for direction and if this is not clearer at London open perhaps US open.

 

GU - Another D doji in the area of the Nov lows. In this run down doji's have been followed by a strong down day but we now have that support level. We are now in a late Asian session push up, 4hr still on lower high but showing positive divergence to price. No bias as there are arguments for buy or sell, good 1hr candles could take this either way.

 

EJ - D negative divergence, RSI crossed below signal line, but still above 50 level. 4hr negative divergence and a lower high following divergence is normally a decent set up. Bias down but there is always the likelihood the BOJ will take some action.

[Snow Dog 10]

Missed out badly with moves down this morning, it happens.

 

After the big bounce from W S1/S3 117.30 area 1hr lower high shooting star. 15 min lh little/no lower wick. Happy to exit +51.