Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Snow Dog

Higher Lows Lower Highs

Recommended Posts

7 Jan

 

EUR - D, a hammer bounce off the RN 1.3000/support level. Below 50 RSI and price below its ma. 4hr on lower high lower low but has signaled a counter trend buy. 1hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Conflicting messages so no real bias, a solid 1hr close either way could set up a move.

 

GU - D, a negative close hammer off the support level 1.6000. Below 50 RSI price below its ma. 4hr lower high lower low flow, 1hr appears to have reverted back to lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - We are in the area (candle body lows from W chart) of the 2008/9 lows and the Jul-Nov 2010 highs. A major support/resistance level. D on higher low above ma but RSI did not cross its signal line. Asian session rejected the move up. 1hr flow up, bias up.

 

Monday mornings are often indecisive, perhaps will wait for US session to see if there is greater clarity.

1.gif.c1ab79bfa721843b674381adc1349050.gif

1b.gif.88e815fe3ffa9ae2a9b6a7281b814d0e.gif

2.gif.f3d89c2446b7c8eeb66791b071508868.gif

2b.gif.9a460b5f6c9424e7c0f3b1df2e67de29.gif

3.gif.fdb67679c755be73d400657d20d9a932.gif

3b.gif.08bc19f9b400b9f9104e500a6abd14b8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 Jan

 

EUR - D, a hammer bounce off the RN 1.3000/support level. Below 50 RSI and price below its ma. 4hr on lower high lower low but has signaled a counter trend buy. 1hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Conflicting messages so no real bias, a solid 1hr close either way could set up a move.

 

GU - D, a negative close hammer off the support level 1.6000. Below 50 RSI price below its ma. 4hr lower high lower low flow, 1hr appears to have reverted back to lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - We are in the area (candle body lows from W chart) of the 2008/9 lows and the Jul-Nov 2010 highs. A major support/resistance level. D on higher low above ma but RSI did not cross its signal line. Asian session rejected the move up. 1hr flow up, bias up.

 

Monday mornings are often indecisive, perhaps will wait for US session to see if there is greater clarity.

 

4hr and 1hr positive closes to return to trend. 15 min hl little/no upper wick. Big thunderstorm coming here so exited at +22, pity would have liked to let this one run.

1.gif.d77ab06f42bcb5398e92cb2d32e75216.gif

4.gif.b0da89e2bc98789425cc4035b0ce3d96.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 7 Jan

 

As mentioned Monday morning did not really do much. The key levels for EUR 1.3000 and GU 1.6000 held. Both pairs had 4 hr engulfing positive closes to signal move up. We traded EJ which did not move up as much.

 

8 Jan

 

EUR - Support held, D positive close, 4hr flow now higher low, bias up. W M3 1.3180 and lows from 21-31 Dec looks a decent target area.

 

GU - Same picture as EUR. We are at a potential resistance area lows 13 Dec and 24 Dec that we could react lower to, bias up though. Target 1.6175-1.6200.

 

EJ - D close a doji at the resistance level. 4hr shows the reaction lower is getting smaller. Bias up but obviously can react to the proven resistance level.

1.gif.5c4e63d0d7830bf940b998343bfd1ae7.gif

2.gif.bfbea24c5b0939c9377424541139f06e.gif

3.gif.16efbb2214102351fba8b7c024d60a9d.gif

4.gif.d9c019c6d7dc3a9ce459d0e92355237a.gif

5.gif.b0c5cddb16b984cfe65b19e55b4b30b9.gif

6.gif.55f91b88e603d5ab4ed5c9121a692b1c.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bias was up but got no clean signals. A genuine 1hr intra day lower high engulfing close. Target was Y's low 1.6019 but looks like W M2 holding so out +25 as I have to leave computer now.

3.gif.2482159f738c703df8b10f6a5a94f64c.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 8 Jan

 

Bias was up, with the potential for upper resistance levels to hold, they did on all pairs. The 1hr price action was poor in London morning session and we were able to sell a GU engulfing negative close, intra day lower high in US session.

 

9 Jan

 

EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down.

 

GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030.

 

EJ - The JPY authorities have done a brilliant job of managing their currency weaker to aid their exports. Whilst a negative close on D from the upper resistance level 115.50, after 5 days failing to go higher, should be sell bias today. 1hr lower high lower low flow has already been broken this morning after an Asian session 90 pip move up. Will watch carefully as I prefer to take fewer risks counter trend with JPY pairs.

1.gif.97bd040f6c12049ac17f390f312f3c14.gif

2.gif.b27dec797400c728cf505b57c4e3ba7e.gif

3.gif.482f4f14bc23d078bddfcf9e9df715c8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

9 Jan

 

EUR - D closed negative, lower high currently on the high from 5 Oct 1.3070, below RSI 50 level and below our ma. 4hr flow still on higher high higher low but a negative close on the current candle would flip this over. Already below our ma's and RSI 50 level. 1hr has already flipped over. Bias down.

 

GU - Essentially the same picture. Bias down, could be some bounces in the support area 1.6000-6030.

 

 

A disappointing day for a couple of reasons. Firstly Mrs V was not in front of the computer for this one. Bias for GU was down as mentioned this morning. 1hr doji preceded this 15 min lower high, engulfing close, little/no lower wick. A 60+ pip run down followed. Oh well next trade please.

13.gif.e44d2cca0e61d705c1fc94cdcbae9760.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 9 Jan

 

The EUR, GU down bias did play out after a failed attempt higher around LO.

 

10 Jan

 

UK MPC statement, EUR interest rates and press conference. For me after NFP easily days when I am happy to leave trading and come back after the news is out to see if there are nice price waves (higher lows, lower highs) to trade.

 

EUR - Negative D close below the ma, RSI below 50 level. 1hr lower high lower low in tact (barely). We have the proven support level 1.3000, W M2 at 1.3031 and the early Jan lows to contend with. We can obviously bounce higher from these areas but overall bias down.

 

GU - Largely a similar picture, we are at the early Dec lows 1.6000.Bias down.

 

EJ - Positive D close, 1hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up with potential to react to the highs around 115.50.

1.gif.a2010880af02738df3dbc0ea17323f54.gif

2.gif.be81e71368d76acef58d6e843515a06a.gif

3.gif.422bdf5a5802eed56776ee53621f29d5.gif

4.gif.481e227061bbe7695211ff5e91a73314.gif

5.gif.1fb7b7da7067adb0366ae1ca56984686.gif

6.gif.80de68dd43c2c97aa7ab6bc1262d9e78.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 10 Jan

 

The down bias for EUR and GU did not happen as the mentioned support levels 1.30 and 1.60 held. EJ went up as per bias.

 

11 Jan

 

EUR - Engulfing positive close in reaction to EUR rate discussions. Bias up but obviously can react lower to the highs 1.3250-1.3300.

 

GU - Bias up but can react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level.

 

EJ - Bias up.

1.gif.9edb8fb4df21fca083b51b50afb518c0.gif

2.gif.e1205b6476397588a8b4c64bfca5a5c5.gif

3.gif.080c3853489cee610ad67d714446114c.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

GU - Bias up but can react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level.

 

 

1.6175 was an identified potential resistance level (a turn point 17 Oct). A 1hr shooting star going into LO and then a neg close set up this 15 min lower high move through ema/50 level. 1hr lower high after divergence. Entry after 15 min shooting star little/no lower wick.

 

Happy with pivot as a target and +31 for a CT trade.

6.gif.48b3b246fdadd35a34ed11eefd8645c9.gif

5.gif.99cba1e08928861526fe24fc55c0e2f9.gif

4.gif.073f0b09e65470ea525894971524d681.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought I'd expand a little on thought process for this morning.

 

Left arrow up, 2b buy at Frankie open. Arrow up right is first possible trade after LO. Luckily it never followed through higher as this would have presented a problem, 1hr had closed with a decent upper wick.

 

Arrow down. 1hr candle closed negative and 15 min has a genuine lower high (as shown by the x's) 1hr into London session.

 

Add in the 6175 resistance level as mentioned above and a CT trade a decent option.

7.gif.b83b0ce2146193823e95e02d9b9c706a.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mrs V took this one but had stop at BE already before news came out. I was swimming in the pool its been about 95F here lately. :cool:

 

Daily pivot held the CT move down for 3 hours. 15 min engulfing close co-incided with 1hr engulfing positive close. 15 min hammer little/no upper wick. Exit at the Y's high/todays open combo for +39.

1.gif.de53447acf2dc68921189eb76016a87d.gif

2.gif.85f0cf40f8d1dd22029e080f713447ff.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 11 Jan

 

EUR and EJ - Bias up played out.

 

GU - Price did react lower to the 1.6175 resistance level. A lower high close after divergence on 1hr. Then became very volatile between 1.6090 and 1.6175.

 

14 Jan

 

EUR - D positive close, 4hr and 1hr flow higher high higher low. We are in the area of 26 Mar-3 Apr highs. D is showing divergence, price not showing signs of stopping yet. Bias up next target the Feb highs 1.3450-90.

 

GU - D double top high lower close. 4hr and 1hr charts not as clean as EUR. We are on or above RSI 50 levels, above the ma's and Asian session went up with EUR so bias up.

 

EJ - We are at a resistance level but bias up. The next resistance level I see is the Apr '11 high 123.00.

1.gif.611fa53c465e7c65bd0353b11e0c0e42.gif

2.gif.c5c0cbdbec99e129f2cb435428f011e2.gif

3.gif.49d4dc7b7ee7b89878c7e106f0aee10e.gif

4.gif.28291bf54c06090eec8e36007dccf924.gif

5.gif.f58aa99cef5a71f399ffa504f8b03531.gif

6.gif.829cb4c49883bd8ec197f1ad956233f5.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though the bias was up Y we did OK not to get sucked into a losing trade see arrows up, on Mon mornings (like Fri's) we are very careful. Unfortunately wasn't in front of the computer for the engulfing negative close, that broke below the immediate range, arrow down.

4.gif.841147eaaa64651a7d7ed1610a8fe949.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 14 Jan

 

The upper resistance levels held. Of the set ups for counter trend I preferred the 1hr engulfing close on GU. We missed it, no problem today is another opportunity.

 

15 Jan

 

EUR - No real progress made higher and D closed a doji. 4hr shows signs of flipping over should the current candle closes negative. That may signal a double top, scalp sell (as not yet confirmed by the D). Only time will tell if this is a pause in uptrend or start of a turn. The Mar '12 highs are a major resistance level. We had support yesterday 1.3335.

 

GU - D negative close with a decent lower wick. At present we are bouncing between W pivots and support/resistance levels. 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down. Support at 1.6000.

 

EJ - D closed on the resistance level and dropped 50 pips in Asian session. It appears the 4hr divergence is now playing out. We moved aggressively away from our D lwma due to the jump on 10th, a pause up is expected. Viewing this as a dip in uptrend, bias up.

1.gif.8c77137c0b8aec08832fc4cd1349e23c.gif

2.gif.87ef0fe89c9bb5e835b050079fcffa86.gif

3.gif.fc62761c74dfaa3d79482fbd98612c56.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday only had a BE trade. Mrs V looked at JPY but missed/chickened out. After the choppy GU pa moved stop a little (actually a lot) quicker than normal and out at BE. No problem on such a day thats absolutely no big deal at all.

3.gif.872838dd8f05d6d8a485bb2b2913f17f.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 15 Jan

 

EUR - Poor price action, the 4hr did flip over and the bias down did play out but the main move lower was late in US session.

 

GU - Very choppy, small range with the lower resistance level holding.

 

EJ - A major move down started with an engulfing close 4hr. In the bigger picture on D this can still be dip in uptrend. Several hours of 1hr candles up getting taken out with 1hr move down. That gives pause for thought.

 

16 Jan

 

EUR - D negative close forming an evening star pattern in the area of the Dec highs, RSI not crossed lower, not below lwma as yet. D divergence has played out. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level and 1hr flow on lower high lower low. In view of D evening star pattern and 1hr flow bias down but we can react to the support level 1.3250/90.

 

GU - D doji, RSI flat below 50 level. 4hr and 1hr sideways moves but we are below/on the RSI 50 level and below ma's. That suggests bias down but would like to see solid lower closes for a trade.

 

EJ - D solid negative engulfing close, the range of the previous 2 days. 4hr and 1hr below RSI 50 level. Perhaps the JPY authorities have taken their foot off the weak yen for the moment. I struggle to think we'll have a repeat of yesterday however bias now down until 1hr flow turns up. Can the next support level 115.50/116.00 be reached?

10.gif.b1aa706e61f6d021b4b7a9ee897b90da.gif

11.gif.9dfdcb326291135b4af104eaba333a41.gif

12.gif.1d281a73405e36bc6f2b57a2d2bff332.gif

13.gif.25bc48e9579130a18249c707a80091ee.gif

14.gif.5c72c7b1ed2d1532b50f779926f8a4a0.gif

15.gif.1e7acb713e2f7451d800c0efba0a985a.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 16 Jan

 

The down bias was more pronounced on GU. Whilst there were good selling trades on EUR (and EJ) the support above 1.3250 gave buy opportunites for counter trend trades from a proven support level.

 

17 Jan

 

EUR - D close a hammer and we have not closed below our lwma or had RSI cross. No bias, until we break the immediate range it seems that scalp buys and sells from 1hr/15 min candles near the most recent price extremes may be effective.

 

GU - D negative close, 4hr and 1hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

 

EJ - D close a hammer. 4hr flow on lower high lower low. A 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. Bias down. As per EUR recently there have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges. Targets 116.45 yesterdays low, then perhaps the 116.00 support level.

1.gif.be67959716d4dc7e5938542b0cc0c2ba.gif

2.gif.6ec9f59f5fe30f22ad33969de535992c.gif

3.gif.7709322cd0954181d355d64e3ee3b479.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 17 Jan

 

EUR - No bias for the day pending break of immediate range. It broke up.

 

GU - Bias was down, had a push up at London open into the area of 4-15 Jan lows/W S1, and a fall from there.

 

EJ - Bias was down but we had D hammer. In addition a 100 pip drop in Asian session is always a little troubling for the ability to drop further. There have been good 1hr/15 min turn trades at the extremes of recent ranges.That happened fairly early. After my post yesterday a 1hr morning star pattern unfolded and 4hr flow halted.

 

18 Jan

 

EUR - Engulfing D close at the resistance level just below 1.3400. 1hr flow higher high higher low. This D higher low close is completely different to the reaction from this level at the beginning of April '12. Bias up with the potential to go lower from the highs.

 

GU - D closed a doji perhaps showing divergence (price action yet to confirm) stopping at the previously identified support level 1.5950. If the 1hr does not fall we will have a higher low. No bias can go either way.

 

EJ - D engulfing close (close higher than the previous 2 candle closes). Looks like BOJ not letting their hard work go to waste. Next target 123.00. Bias up.

1.gif.b2a1ed6409410d16a2f0d3c8b2082d50.gif

2.gif.1e892e4ed067aa7be2abb46ba4847cc5.gif

3.gif.10d54c49d73f0dadcc6359197fbff333.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting thread. Have you backtested all of your setups?

 

Endlessly.

 

The only things that have changed is that now entries mainly from 15 min chart. I have better rules for trend v counter trend. I have a greater awareness of trading with the 1hr flow.

 

Basics per 1st post still apply.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 18 Jan

 

EUR bias was up with potential to go lower from the highs (1.3400 area). It fell with an evening star pattern on 15 min.

 

GU was no bias could have gone either way. Again the move above the immediate range just before London open was rejected with a doji and also completed an evening star pattern. there was then a weak pre US open push up reverting to trend after US news.

 

EJ did not follow bias up.

 

21 Jan

 

EUR - A negative close day that did not challenge last weeks lows. 4hr going sideways within the 1.3400-1.3250 range. Direction at this time is unclear.

 

GU - All time frames below RSI 50 level with some divergence on 1hr. Bias down but we have the Nov support area 1.5825 approaching. 4hr and 1hr flows down.

 

EJ - D doji with divergence, 4hr divergence. 4hr and 1hr RSI crossed below their signal lines so short term sell bias, D has not as yet agreed.

1.gif.4ab9a119cc83a13dfbd20ebff7b81b85.gif

2.gif.af8b11036999b235454cb55a8f615647.gif

3.gif.c55ea73a807d261518c377e7d46e210e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recap 21 Jan

 

The US holidays and poor EUR price action continued yesterday with no moves. GU did give a trade down in line with bias when 1hr engulfing closed negative and a little later 4hr lower high closed negative. EJ gave a couple of scalp sells in line with short term sell bias.

 

22 Jan

 

EUR - D close gives no insight and a 50 pip bounce up late Asian session needs to hold. The 4hr is still in effect going sideways. Will be looking for clarity on flow for direction and if this is not clearer at London open perhaps US open.

 

GU - Another D doji in the area of the Nov lows. In this run down doji's have been followed by a strong down day but we now have that support level. We are now in a late Asian session push up, 4hr still on lower high but showing positive divergence to price. No bias as there are arguments for buy or sell, good 1hr candles could take this either way.

 

EJ - D negative divergence, RSI crossed below signal line, but still above 50 level. 4hr negative divergence and a lower high following divergence is normally a decent set up. Bias down but there is always the likelihood the BOJ will take some action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed out badly with moves down this morning, it happens.

 

After the big bounce from W S1/S3 117.30 area 1hr lower high shooting star. 15 min lh little/no lower wick. Happy to exit +51.

15.gif.769a7cddc33acbe850af6e65d9dc4cd9.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.