I'm Done...

[BlowFish 10]

Perhaps try a smaller stake, something almost trivially small. Mark Douglas suggests an exercise in his first book (might be repeated in Trading in the Zone....can't remember off hand). Very simple but important to do it right. It involves taking a fixed number of trades come what may.

 

This might interest you. I used a Java web app so I'm taking the maths on trust.

 

successRate = 0.31 (this is the chance of taking a [i]loss[/i])
numGames    = 50
streakLen   = 3 (at least)

games | probability | odds       |
------+-------------+------------+
   3 | .0297910000 | 1 in 33.57 |
   4 | .0503467900 | 1 in 19.86 |
   5 | .0709025800 | 1 in 14.10 |
   6 | .0914583700 | 1 in 10.93 |
   7 | .1114017825 | 1 in  8.98 |
   8 | .1309226544 | 1 in  7.64 |
   9 | .1500209859 | 1 in  6.67 |
------+-------------+------------+
  10 | .1686967768 | 1 in  5.93 |
  11 | .1869626152 | 1 in  5.35 |
  12 | .2048271866 | 1 in  4.88 |
  13 | .2222991767 | 1 in  4.50 |
  14 | .2393872712 | 1 in  4.18 |
  15 | .2560998969 | 1 in  3.90 |
  16 | .2724453023 | 1 in  3.67 |
  17 | .2884315571 | 1 in  3.47 |
  18 | .3040665526 | 1 in  3.29 |
  19 | .3193580069 | 1 in  3.13 |
------+-------------+------------+
  20 | .3343134685 | 1 in  2.99 |
  21 | .3489403200 | 1 in  2.87 |
  22 | .3632457818 | 1 in  2.75 |
  23 | .3772369157 | 1 in  2.65 |
  24 | .3909206282 | 1 in  2.56 |
  25 | .4043036743 | 1 in  2.47 |
  26 | .4173926603 | 1 in  2.40 |
  27 | .4301940474 | 1 in  2.32 |
  28 | .4427141551 | 1 in  2.26 |
  29 | .4549591637 | 1 in  2.20 |
------+-------------+------------+

[Kiwi 16]

I used to trade mech systems and am going to again.

 

An old gold standard was "start trading from a bit of a drawdown" because they have them but if they're robust then thats just a periodic swing where the market briefly doesn't suit them. Of course you may have overoptimized or maybe not allowed enough commission + slippage.

[dam5h 10]

Yes, I think a mechanical system would be best for my controlling type personality - set it and forget it. So that's what I tried to come up with - breakout strategy using 5000 share bar on the TF. Backtested back to Jan 4 with great results - 69% win with a 1:1.2 ratio. So, here's me a couple weeks ago, "oh yeah baby, I got this thing, screw you corporate america". So, I began real time trading it and promptly took 3 losses in a row to the tune of $450 each, so I stopped and said WTH. The last time this thing took 3 losses in a row was 5 months ago! So, then I start thinking about conspiracy theories, mkt manipulation, etc....

 

3 losses in a row is nothing, especially for a mechanical system. personally, 10 would start to drive me nuts, but i know it'll probably happen sooner or later. it's important to treat each trade as a new trade not allowing it to be effected by current pnl or drawdown. i know its not easy, but it's important.

 

fwiw, i finally turned the corner around 18 months and it had absolutely everything to do with finally deciding to stop gun-slinging and stick to one setup. i think there is a lot of truth to what linda r. says about the 2 years to consistency. you have to pay your dues and just like anything else this potentially lucrative, dues are expensive.

[natedredd10 10]

Yes, I think a mechanical system would be best for my controlling type personality - set it and forget it. So that's what I tried to come up with - breakout strategy using 5000 share bar on the TF. Backtested back to Jan 4 with great results - 69% win with a 1:1.2 ratio.

 

I'm sure part of the issue is that you backtested this on basically a different market regime already.

From late feb to may we had a smooth trend in the markets with a descending VIX through the 20s..once volatility not only stopped drying up but got a huge pop in volatility your backtest IMO went out the window because 75% of the data you used has a totally different return distribution than what you can reasonably expect right now.

You either need to build regime switching stuff into your strategy or build a strategy that is more robust to changing regimes(which you certainly need to backtest a lot more data than just back to jan, but you also probably don't want to skew things with data from such a rare event as the depths of the financial crisis)

[russian_bear 10]

Well, after 18 months of researching, demo trading, live trading, webinars, trading groups, books, magazines, I have finally decided to throw in the towel. I hate giving up, but I have a family to support and this just ain't workin', so back to looking for another 9-5 hum drum job - oh well. Good luck to everyone...

 

man, just want to make you little be more self-proud... I'm working in some mid-size forex broker, we have branches in russia and in several western countries... most "mass media" claims there are only 5-10% of traders who successfull on the long term... I want to tell you truth from other side, from broker side... We DON'T have ANY succssfull trader who trades with profit for long term We never seen any client who could be able to succeed during 1-2 years of active trading.

hope that with this knowledge you can "respect" youself more, you are not only loooser, you are part of 99.9999999% team of those who fail on the long term trading forex

[BlowFish 10]

So one of the 'bucket shop' brokers then presumably anyone that starts to make money is put on refer to broker and subsequently leaves!

[Tams 20]

man, just want to make you little be more self-proud... I'm working in some mid-size forex broker, we have branches in russia and in several western countries... most "mass media" claims there are only 5-10% of traders who successfull on the long term... I want to tell you truth from other side, from broker side... We DON'T have ANY succssfull trader who trades with profit for long term We never seen any client who could be able to succeed during 1-2 years of active trading.

hope that with this knowledge you can "respect" youself more, you are not only loooser, you are part of 99.9999999% team of those who fail on the long term trading forex

 

trading is not difficult,

 

trading profitably is not difficult either.

there is a fine line between a trader and a profitable trader.

 

a trader fights the market,

a profitable trader goes with the market.

 

how to go with the market?

the market gives signals to its intentions.

the good thing is, the market does not discriminate you base on gender, nationality, religion, skin color, education...

everybody gets the same signals.

 

no, the market does not discriminate you based on which school you went to...

you don't need to have the brain of a rocket scientist to succeed.

you don't need super computers with esoteric indicators or secret black boxes.

 

all you need to do is -- don't argue with the market.

Edited September 23, 2010 by Tams

[MightyMouse 12]

trading is not difficult,

 

trading profitably is not difficult either.

there is a fine line between a trader and a profitable trader.

 

a trader fights the market,

a profitable trader goes with the market.

 

how to go with the market?

the market gives signals to its intentions.

the good thing is, the market does not discriminate you base on gender, nationality, religion, skin color, education...

everybody gets the same signals.

 

no, the market does not discriminate you based on which school you went to...

you don't need to have the brain of a rocket scientist to succeed.

you don't need super computers with esoteric indicators or secret black boxes.

 

all you need to do is -- don't argue with the market.

 

Simply take more from the market than the market takes from you.

[targus 10]

Well, after 18 months of researching, demo trading, live trading, webinars, trading groups, books, magazines, I have finally decided to throw in the towel. I hate giving up, but I have a family to support and this just ain't workin', so back to looking for another 9-5 hum drum job - oh well. Good luck to everyone...

 

Have you tried the download indy by mouteki over at ff in his attachments, it isdesigned around the Tom Demark indy, it helped me stay out of bad trades and kept me in good ones, it helped me turn the corner somewhat and learn very quickly about TLs, I now regularly get upto and over 100pips on the gbp/usd. Worth your while, before you go..

[targus 10]

Well, after 18 months of researching, demo trading, live trading, webinars, trading groups, books, magazines, I have finally decided to throw in the towel. I hate giving up, but I have a family to support and this just ain't workin', so back to looking for another 9-5 hum drum job - oh well. Good luck to everyone...

 

Here is my chart as of 15.15 gmt 26/05/11. As I post this I am waiting to re-enter to the upside, I have been studying the Tom Demark way and located this handy indy (which is built around Demarks TLs) to help me as a newbie quickly generate some excellent pips every week if not every few days, so while I earn, I can still afford to keep learning and pay the mortgage!! Try it. I am trying to attach my charts, hope they arrive.

[Wick 10]

I definitely agree with some of the other posts that state 18 months is not enough. I've been teaching myself trading for about four years now. It amazing how my thoughts have changed since I began. I paper trade, then trade with real money, then realize my system doesn't work, then repeat the process. The important thing is I learn from it.

 

Eventually I hope I find my way and quit my job. I set a goal to do that and I'll do whatever it takes to achieve that. I joking say "trade or die". I think if you want to be successful in trading you have to have that mentality.

 

Currently I'm very discouraged because I still can't consistently make money after four years...and well, I may never get there, but I'm not giving up. When I do get to that point it will make it that much sweeter. Trading is the hardest thing I have ever done and I truly want to beat it.

[targus 10]

I very highly recommend Tom Demark Books, you're probably aware he sells his 17 and counting indicators for serious money, I understand you cannot buy them now and must lease them through Bloomberg etc., however, there are many knocked up versions on the other forums forex-std etc. I prefer the Demark indys to Mouteki, Demark indys show you your targets and along with another indy I have for s/r it all makes sense. I will try to figure out how to attach a chart for you. I have read of many people blowing their account or just simply not earning enough from it, get a job, then go back in, I think perhaps you and I are in this category. I have been trading for 1.6 months and it has been terrible, early days for me, but I must say since I found DeMark I am a little more confident and as far as indys are concerned I will use whatever it takes, no snob here.

 

I wish you well my friend.

[Rande Howell 10]

I definitely agree with some of the other posts that state 18 months is not enough. I've been teaching myself trading for about four years now. It amazing how my thoughts have changed since I began. I paper trade, then trade with real money, then realize my system doesn't work, then repeat the process. The important thing is I learn from it.

 

Currently I'm very discouraged because I still can't consistently make money after four years...and well, I may never get there, but I'm not giving up. When I do get to that point it will make it that much sweeter. Trading is the hardest thing I have ever done and I truly want to beat it.

 

What stands in your way to making money consistently? Many traders, four years in, have a methodolgy that works. It works in sim trading. But when capital is put at real risk, the mindset that trades the methodology becomes unglued. What's your situation?

 

Rande Howell

[SpecTrade 10]

Don't quit learning how to trade, but DO KEEP YOUR JOB.

18 months is really not enough. Take it easy, it will take about 5 years to find the method or a system that is really suited for you. Yes, you need some kind of system. It will form a background, a line in sand, a base. Only later you will learn price action, and even later a "feeling for the market", which IMO is simply experience.

 

At first you shouldn't think of making money for life, just learn, practice demo or even better trade couple of dollars on forex (i only know Oanda to offer trading such small amounts). This will allow you to really feel when you make money or loose. And let's say an accoint of 100 dollars is really affordable.

You may think the amounts are too insignificant. But just add couple of zeros in your mind. Right now you are learning.

Make sure you learn about risk management and trade management (these 2 are not the same thing). Risk within 1-3% max. At first try to prevent losses by either putting your order to break-even or reducing the stop loss while in a trade. Learn how to put stop-loss and trail it based on technical factors not on fixed $ amount or pips/points/ticks amount.

 

When you find yourself lost touch with the market or in consistent loosing period, take a break for a week. Absolutely take a break if you lost 20-30% of your account.

After you become break-even trader, try to look where the trade was profitable. Was it at risk-reward 1:1? If so or more, then start taking 1:1 profits. If less, it means your entries have problem. Re-evaluate the system/method. Once you gather experience you will customize the system, personalize it, or even develop your own.

But most important is to find a method that suits you. It doesn't matter what that is, be it linear approach (trendlines, pitchforks, Elliot, Gann) or floating approach (moving averages, volatility pivots, etc). As long as it works for YOU. Understand the system and trade it. If it does't suit you, try another. But DO NOT JUMP from system to system just because it gave you couple of losses. This way often you are out at the exact moment when it would turn around. The key is being consistent with your trading.

Back-testing is good, do it by hand, bar-by-bar. If you like it, trade it for at least 3-6 months. Choose your mentors wisely. There are many who have no clue about real trading. Some of them are even "quite famous".

Also, find time frame you like. Do you want to be out at the end of the day? If so, trade short time frame and look for systems/methods that are designed for it. If you want to take trades that last 2-3 days or longer, trade on 240min or Daily. There are many people who make good money trading nothing but dailies.

I assume you approach market from technical point. If you are fundamental trader, then it's a completely different story and all above doesn't matter.

 

Keep in mind that the amount you've invested is small, so in the end it doesn't matter that much. You can open another account and another with $100.

Yet at the same time don't treat it as insignificant. Like I said before: add few zeros in your mind. You are learning how to trade, how to feel when in profit or loss.

 

Just give up after only 18 months? You're probably half way there!

 

 

Well, after 18 months of researching, demo trading, live trading, webinars, trading groups, books, magazines, I have finally decided to throw in the towel. I hate giving up, but I have a family to support and this just ain't workin', so back to looking for another 9-5 hum drum job - oh well. Good luck to everyone...

[targus 10]

Don't quit learning how to trade, but DO KEEP YOUR JOB.

18 months is really not enough. Take it easy, it will take about 5 years to find the method or a system that is really suited for you. Yes, you need some kind of system. It will form a background, a line in sand, a base. Only later you will learn price action, and even later a "feeling for the market", which IMO is simply experience.

 

At first you shouldn't think of making money for life, just learn, practice demo or even better trade couple of dollars on forex (i only know Oanda to offer trading such small amounts). This will allow you to really feel when you make money or loose. And let's say an accoint of 100 dollars is really affordable.

You may think the amounts are too insignificant. But just add couple of zeros in your mind. Right now you are learning.

Make sure you learn about risk management and trade management (these 2 are not the same thing). Risk within 1-3% max. At first try to prevent losses by either putting your order to break-even or reducing the stop loss while in a trade. Learn how to put stop-loss and trail it based on technical factors not on fixed $ amount or pips/points/ticks amount.

 

When you find yourself lost touch with the market or in consistent loosing period, take a break for a week. Absolutely take a break if you lost 20-30% of your account.

After you become break-even trader, try to look where the trade was profitable. Was it at risk-reward 1:1? If so or more, then start taking 1:1 profits. If less, it means your entries have problem. Re-evaluate the system/method. Once you gather experience you will customize the system, personalize it, or even develop your own.

But most important is to find a method that suits you. It doesn't matter what that is, be it linear approach (trendlines, pitchforks, Elliot, Gann) or floating approach (moving averages, volatility pivots, etc). As long as it works for YOU. Understand the system and trade it. If it does't suit you, try another. But DO NOT JUMP from system to system just because it gave you couple of losses. This way often you are out at the exact moment when it would turn around. The key is being consistent with your trading.

Back-testing is good, do it by hand, bar-by-bar. If you like it, trade it for at least 3-6 months. Choose your mentors wisely. There are many who have no clue about real trading. Some of them are even "quite famous".

Also, find time frame you like. Do you want to be out at the end of the day? If so, trade short time frame and look for systems/methods that are designed for it. If you want to take trades that last 2-3 days or longer, trade on 240min or Daily. There are many people who make good money trading nothing but dailies.

I assume you approach market from technical point. If you are fundamental trader, then it's a completely different story and all above doesn't matter.

 

Keep in mind that the amount you've invested is small, so in the end it doesn't matter that much. You can open another account and another with $100.

Yet at the same time don't treat it as insignificant. Like I said before: add few zeros in your mind. You are learning how to trade, how to feel when in profit or loss.

 

Just give up after only 18 months? You're probably half way there!

 

 

What a truly wonderful epic answer, I salute you. You are quite right about Oanda, I trade with them and risk no more than £0.40p per pip so I can afford a round trip if I am wrong. I use Fxpro for my charting. You can put in say £100.00 with Oanda and if you do this perhaps work too, by using the indys I mentioned earlier, Demark and Mouteki on the 4hr timeframe especially gbp/usd as it MOVES you will quickly build up a nice little account. For example, I had a reversal signal three days ago, am still waiting for a big reversal on this pair going off the 4hr and Mouteki signal, however, cable has decided to blow off today further up! I will not move until she has her big reversal to somewhere 1.6220 area and then wait for mouteki to signal a buy again in the main direction as indicated on the daily/weekly, when she does I will buy again with a tp target and no s/l. The end game is to win while we learn, these indys have helped me understand and keep me on the winning side for some while now.

[MightyMouse 12]

Don't quit learning how to trade, but DO KEEP YOUR JOB.

18 months is really not enough. Take it easy, it will take about 5 years to find the method or a system that is really suited for you. Yes, you need some kind of system. It will form a background, a line in sand, a base. Only later you will learn price action, and even later a "feeling for the market", which IMO is simply experience.

 

At first you shouldn't think of making money for life, just learn, practice demo or even better trade couple of dollars on forex (i only know Oanda to offer trading such small amounts). This will allow you to really feel when you make money or loose. And let's say an accoint of 100 dollars is really affordable.

You may think the amounts are too insignificant. But just add couple of zeros in your mind. Right now you are learning.

Make sure you learn about risk management and trade management (these 2 are not the same thing). Risk within 1-3% max. At first try to prevent losses by either putting your order to break-even or reducing the stop loss while in a trade. Learn how to put stop-loss and trail it based on technical factors not on fixed $ amount or pips/points/ticks amount.

 

When you find yourself lost touch with the market or in consistent loosing period, take a break for a week. Absolutely take a break if you lost 20-30% of your account.

After you become break-even trader, try to look where the trade was profitable. Was it at risk-reward 1:1? If so or more, then start taking 1:1 profits. If less, it means your entries have problem. Re-evaluate the system/method. Once you gather experience you will customize the system, personalize it, or even develop your own.

But most important is to find a method that suits you. It doesn't matter what that is, be it linear approach (trendlines, pitchforks, Elliot, Gann) or floating approach (moving averages, volatility pivots, etc). As long as it works for YOU. Understand the system and trade it. If it does't suit you, try another. But DO NOT JUMP from system to system just because it gave you couple of losses. This way often you are out at the exact moment when it would turn around. The key is being consistent with your trading.

Back-testing is good, do it by hand, bar-by-bar. If you like it, trade it for at least 3-6 months. Choose your mentors wisely. There are many who have no clue about real trading. Some of them are even "quite famous".

Also, find time frame you like. Do you want to be out at the end of the day? If so, trade short time frame and look for systems/methods that are designed for it. If you want to take trades that last 2-3 days or longer, trade on 240min or Daily. There are many people who make good money trading nothing but dailies.

I assume you approach market from technical point. If you are fundamental trader, then it's a completely different story and all above doesn't matter.

 

Keep in mind that the amount you've invested is small, so in the end it doesn't matter that much. You can open another account and another with $100.

Yet at the same time don't treat it as insignificant. Like I said before: add few zeros in your mind. You are learning how to trade, how to feel when in profit or loss.

 

Just give up after only 18 months? You're probably half way there!

 

Half way where?

 

Once you are there, you still need enough capital to be able to trade. If you don't have the capital yet, then you'll have to wait a lot longer than you think which means that you are really nowhere.

[mslk 10]

Half way where?

 

Once you are there, you still need enough capital to be able to trade. If you don't have the capital yet, then you'll have to wait a lot longer than you think which means that you are really nowhere.

 

why so negative MM? SpecTrade is just trying to give the guy some encouragement ... I take the statement as "he is half-way to his goal of learning how to be a successful trader so don't quit!" so what if the statement is a little loose?

 

OP - don't quit ... take a step back, regroup, read some more, try to plan before attacking. but don't give up. you are further along now than when you started ... and there is still a journey ahead but don't give up! best of luck.

 

mslk

[Tams 20]

.

 

 

 

you might think you are done...

but with trading, there is no escape

http://www.moviesoundscentral.com/sounds/terminator/back.wav

 

 

 

 

 

.

[MightyMouse 12]

why so negative MM? SpecTrade is just trying to give the guy some encouragement ... I take the statement as "he is half-way to his goal of learning how to be a successful trader so don't quit!" so what if the statement is a little loose?

 

OP - don't quit ... take a step back, regroup, read some more, try to plan before attacking. but don't give up. you are further along now than when you started ... and there is still a journey ahead but don't give up! best of luck.

 

mslk

 

There is nothing negative in saying that if you do not have enough capital, you will not be able to trade for a living once you know how to trade. It may sound or seem negative if you have not given it thought.

 

Money is not going to pour out of the market into your account once you know how to trade. It is not anything like that.

[mslk 10]

There is nothing negative in saying

 

I was referring to the "Half way where?" question but no worries, maybe I read the tone wrong

 

mslk

[SpecTrade 10]

Half way where?

 

Once you are there, you still need enough capital to be able to trade. If you don't have the capital yet, then you'll have to wait a lot longer than you think which means that you are really nowhere.[/QI]

 

Obviously the guy had to have some capital if he quit his job and was trying to make money from trading instead.

Also, he states that he attended various webinars and courses, and that's much better than many others (including myself in the past), who try to find some super-indicator, "new-and-very-profitable" system, or EA on various forums.

 

"Half way there" refers to the approach how he learns trading. Better than having capital and blowing it away and having no idea how it happened.

[Wick 10]

What stands in your way to making money consistently? Many traders, four years in, have a methodolgy that works. It works in sim trading. But when capital is put at real risk, the mindset that trades the methodology becomes unglued. What's your situation?

 

Rande Howell

 

A few things stand in my way. The main problem for me is I can't find something I'm completely comfortable with. Yes, I'm fully aware of the mindset change when you paper trade and then put real capital at risk. Even though I'm aware, it seems eventually I give in to the pressure and feel I should try and find a way that improves my results.

 

Really my results are pretty good. My account is up quite a bit since I started, but when I start losing I tend to go back to paper trading until I find another method. This really helps preserve my capital, but it takes many months of sim trading to get comfortable in a new strategy again.

 

Another problem is time. I miss a lot of trades just due to work. I'm like most other traders, I have to try every way, every market, and every indicator. Maybe once I try a 100 methods I can adapt just one.

 

I will say price action is far more useful than indicators. Right now I'm using zero indicators in crude and doing pretty well. I've watched crude now for almost 2 years and have a really good feel for it. Sometimes I just make some popcorn, sit back in my recliner and watch crude oil.

[MightyMouse 12]

Half way where?

 

Once you are there, you still need enough capital to be able to trade. If you don't have the capital yet, then you'll have to wait a lot longer than you think which means that you are really nowhere.[/QI]

 

Obviously the guy had to have some capital if he quit his job and was trying to make money from trading instead.

Also, he states that he attended various webinars and courses, and that's much better than many others (including myself in the past), who try to find some super-indicator, "new-and-very-profitable" system, or EA on various forums.

 

"Half way there" refers to the approach how he learns trading. Better than having capital and blowing it away and having no idea how it happened.

 

Most people are delusional about the amount of money they need to make a decent living from trading. It doesn't take a great deal of capital to turn a profit, but it takes a great deal of capital to make a living solely from trading profits.

[SIUYA 11]

A few things stand in my way. The main problem for me is I can't find something I'm completely comfortable with. Yes, I'm fully aware of the mindset change when you paper trade and then put real capital at risk. Even though I'm aware, it seems eventually I give in to the pressure and feel I should try and find a way that improves my results.

 

 

Take a portfolio approach.....take two strategies you are comfortable with and look to combine them.

No one thing works all the time, and interestingly enough, IMHO most things are derivatives of the same things when it comes to trading - chopping and changing to be a perfectionist is pointless - there is only one thing you need to make money - to be long the things that go up, and short those that go down.

If you cant accept that then you will have problems.

[pipsmasterone 10]

Hello All

 

Having traded for almost three years as a "full-time" trader, I am of the opinion, it is one of the hardest endeavors you can ever undertake,

Its true that most traders will never acquire the mindset and skills necessary to do well in this business, however, if you can dig deep in your psyche, you will realize the emotional toughness and discipline that is required to succeed, if you can do that, it will lead to a path of self discovery in its purest form, anyone that's been there will understand exactly what I mean,

to others it will only be a cliche, Good luck