Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?

[steve46 12]

I read your post this morning but waited till now to answer. I agree that both volume and time are important but for unrelated reasons. I will explain.

 

You mention an instance were 50K contracts traded over 5 minutes indicates a different market sentiment traded over 15 minutes of a specific contract or stock. Do I agree, absolutely! Does that matter to my charting environment absolute not. Does it matter to time, range or other variable chart environment, it absolutely does. In fact it has to be interpreted in order to accurately utilize the information. Any interpretation of information is in error or the natural occurrences in price action. Now that being said you run into the exact same problem that has plagued traders since they began plotting price action on a chart and that is being able to accurately interpret market sentiment (EMOTION) in a chart. Using time, range or other variable chart increment makes it impossible to "read" emotion.

 

HUMANS PAY ATTENTION TO TIME BUT HUMANS DO NOT TRADE BASED ON TIME. If you can find a single human that places trades based on the time of day and is consistently profitable I will kiss your dancing feet. Humans pay attention to weather and sports scores too but that has nothing to do with price action. Humans put a volume indicator on a time chart because volume is important.

 

Time is only relative to the release of news reports that are relative to the market you are trading. This is only good so you are aware of trading action that will increase during that time. To bad you can't have something that would tell you of consolidation or a lack of liquidity . . . oh yea, my stuff does that.

 

I have objectively programmed what I do based 100% on volume bar charts. This is something that is impossible to do with any other charting environment. As soon as you or your great great grand children figure out how to interpret emotion on a chart. post a blog.

 

You are stating a problem it has taken me 10 years to solve and are too stubborn allow someone to simply offer you the solution. So be it. In 10 years or whenever you may come to the same conclusion I have, let me know.

 

I know you "like" time. I used to like playing in a sand box but I outgrew it. I know that is a smart ass answer but it's appropriate. How long have you been trading Josh?

 

As usual, urban myth and ignorance abounds

 

Time and price...in my opinion are all that matter...I have used the same formula for more than 12 years now...not one losing year, quarter, month or week....I have had losing days, but thats the worst that can be said of it...

 

The basis is in my thread...(don't want to offend the powers that be, so unfortunately you will have to figure it out for yourself)

 

Time-based pivots work because the people who have the horsepower to move markets use them...period...and they are the ones who decide when (time) to put capital into a market...and finally in the classes we just started it worked like a charm (once again) with a first week's take of $3000 for only 4 day's trade (every participant trading a small account less than $20,000)...with an entry accuracy of about 78% (I haven't finished my end of week analysis yet but that is about where we stand....does technical analysis work? as mentioned previously it depends on your skills level...for amateurs and hobbyists...no....for professionals....yes...definitely...

 

As for the person who posted this silliness, really you need to update your understanding...I am sorry but thats about is polite as I can be when I read this kind of absurdity in a public post.

Edited May 6, 2011 by steve46

[steve46 12]

Lets go a step further since I have my doubts that about the thought process at work here

 

For those of us who actually make living in this industry, what matters is performance over time...simply put....the markets open every year in January and what matters to our clients is whether or not they stay above or below that openning price (for the NYSE that means 1263.50)...after that what matters to our clients is whether price stays above or below the quarterly open, the monthly open and even the weekly open...If we want to keep our bonus money (and our jobs) we are motivated to support the market (in a bull market), when it tests those important financial landmarks....most importantly, as each time period draws to a close, that motivation to act becomes magnified...this is most clearly demonstrated in the equities markets, and in currencies where those who actually execute trades know that most of the business is done at specific time periods where liquidity is at its peak or conversely toward the end of each time period where time considerations may force institutions to act in order to complete their "business" before they close their books.....

 

Finally, in the NYSE where the bulk of volume is automated execution, a large part of that execution is time-related...specifically bots are programmed to act AT SPECIFIC TIMES...TO MONITOR WHAT GOES ON AT THOSE TIMES and to execute based on a logic that is time preferential...."if we see price at xxxx at 6:40am, and if we see volume at xxxxx, then buy/sell a basket of xxxx isssues at the market"....

 

Leaving aside the issue of event trading which is all time driven..it is clear that time is a vital element in terms of most (successful) professional approaches.

[Logic 10]

I'm sure the successful traders who "read" emotion (isn't that what trading is about after all?) who don't use volume bars would have issue with your first sentence above.

Of course, I'm not talking about taking a trade based on the time of day--I'm talking about taking a trade with the information that a certain amount of activity has happened within a certain period of time, for example.

 

I think most traders are able to identify consolidation on any chart type. For volume information, I have volume bars at the bottom of my chart, though liquidity is not nearly as important as price movement. Imbalance of buying and selling produces price movement, not the presence or absence of liquidity, as can be seen in the globex session for many instruments.

 

You have "A solution" -- is it "THE ONLY solution"? You sound like someone defending an attack on your "baby," and that attack isn't coming from me, I assure you.

 

As for me, I first traded in 2007, lost about $1K because I didn't know what I was doing, and then took some time off until last year, and now I'm trading, and still don't know shi*. I know nothing, and never have claimed such. Everything I say is solely my opinion. I have found over the years that in trading forums, people who claim to have all the answers, to know everything, and particularly those who are condescending to other traders, are 100% of the time bullshi**ers, and usually are selling something to boot.

 

Do you always respond so defensively when others present a different view than yours?

 

I have traded long enough to know there are lots of edges. I'm smart enough to know that there are others that have there own method that are profitable and trade nothing like I trade. That is not what you said nor is it what I said.

 

I said that your assumption that viewing/trading time AND volume charts or volume charts and any other combination of variable based charting were an advantage over just volume charts and that is incorrect. I've analyzed them, side-by-side for 8 years and know what the pure raw data shows.

 

I hang out in these forums occasionally for a couple reasons. First is to help young traders steer clear of the typical pit falls that trap them into paths toward failure and the other to learn about the edges others have found. I know what I know and your path is one that I've traveled thousands of times. There isn't anyone that knows volume bars better than I do and knows better the relationship between them and other bar types.

 

Oh, liquidity shows up as a lack of speed and the absence of bars on a volume bar chart. You don't have that feature on time charts.

 

I would never think about trying to instruct you on improving your dance techniques, that would be ignorant. I respect the fact that you have spent so many years at your art. So don't tell me I missed something in my research especially when you are standing on the outside looking in, that is offensive. I've earned the right to be defensive about my creation especially when someone is making an inaccurate statement regarding it.

[Logic 10]

As usual, urban myth and ignorance abounds

 

Time and price...in my opinion are all that matter...I have used the same formula for more than 12 years now...not one losing year, quarter, month or week....I have had losing days, but thats the worst that can be said of it...

 

The basis is in my thread...(don't want to offend the powers that be, so unfortunately you will have to figure it out for yourself)

 

Time-based pivots work because the people who have the horsepower to move markets use them...period...and they are the ones who decide when (time) to put capital into a market...and finally in the classes we just started it worked like a charm (once again) with a first week's take of $3000 for only 4 day's trade (every participant trading a small account less than $20,000)...with an entry accuracy of about 78% (I haven't finished my end of week analysis yet but that is about where we stand....does technical analysis work? as mentioned previously it depends on your skills level...for amateurs and hobbyists...no....for professionals....yes...definitely...

 

As for the person who posted this silliness, really you need to update your understanding...I am sorry but thats about is polite as I can be when I read this kind of absurdity in a public post.

 

 

I posted my trading charts. Our win rates are very close. I've been trading a bit longer than you but only a little over 8 years with volume bars. You can see my results as well in Crude. I stated that there are numerous edges and many are nothing remotely similar to how I trade. I fully understand that many individuals are successful trading many different methods.

 

A few simple questions, if I may

1. You are saying that you consistently execute trades based on the same time of day each day, week or month, right?

 

2. Is your time based method 100% objective?

 

3. Would you say your average weekly return is in the neighborhood of 15% (per your above statement)?

 

Thanks in advance for accurately and precisely answering the questions.

[Logic 10]

Lets go a step further since I have my doubts that about the thought process at work here

 

For those of us who actually make living in this industry, what matters is performance over time...simply put....the markets open every year in January and what matters to our clients is whether or not they stay above or below that openning price (for the NYSE that means 1263.50)...after that what matters to our clients is whether price stays above or below the quarterly open, the monthly open and even the weekly open...If we want to keep our bonus money (and our jobs) we are motivated to support the market (in a bull market), when it tests those important financial landmarks....most importantly, as each time period draws to a close, that motivation to act becomes magnified...this is most clearly demonstrated in the equities markets, and in currencies where those who actually execute trades know that most of the business is done at specific time periods where liquidity is at its peak or conversely toward the end of each time period where time considerations may force institutions to act in order to complete their "business" before they close their books.....

 

Finally, in the NYSE where the bulk of volume is automated execution, a large part of that execution is time-related...specifically bots are programmed to act AT SPECIFIC TIMES...TO MONITOR WHAT GOES ON AT THOSE TIMES and to execute based on a logic that is time preferential...."if we see price at xxxx at 6:40am, and if we see volume at xxxxx, then buy/sell a basket of xxxx isssues at the market"....

 

Leaving aside the issue of event trading which is all time driven..it is clear that time is a vital element in terms of most (successful) professional approaches.

 

Event trading, you mean trading the news, correct. The Fed report is a good example right?

 

That is why the Fed Report has to be analyzed before individuals can make the decision to trade one direction or another. Every report has to be analyzed in order to make a correct decision. Every event has to be analyed in order to make an informed decison.

 

You said yourself that at "specific times" volume is analyzed and compared and based on that analysis a basket of shares or contracts are traded. Its amazing how people read what they want to read. That is exactly what I said. Time/volume charting must be analyzed (INTERPRETED) in order to work efficiently.

 

I employ a group of some of the most proficient programmers the market has spit out over the last few years and am familiar with all of the antiquated algorithms those "successful professionals" are using. I didn't begin outside of the box, I crushed the box and started fresh. What I is do if different, extremely different. Will all of those "successful professionals" still continue to make money. I damn sure hope so because we all live in the same neighborhood.

 

Steve, I understand how your general environment works but don't assume you understand mine.

[MightyMouse 12]

Event trading, you mean trading the news, correct. The Fed report is a good example right?

 

That is why the Fed Report has to be analyzed before individuals can make the decision to trade one direction or another. Every report has to be analyzed in order to make a correct decision. Every event has to be analyed in order to make an informed decison.

 

You said yourself that at "specific times" volume is analyzed and compared and based on that analysis a basket of shares or contracts are traded. Its amazing how people read what they want to read. That is exactly what I said. Time/volume charting must be analyzed (INTERPRETED) in order to work efficiently.

 

I employ a group of some of the most proficient programmers the market has spit out over the last few years and am familiar with all of the antiquated algorithms those "successful professionals" are using. I didn't begin outside of the box, I crushed the box and started fresh. What I is do if different, extremely different. Will all of those "successful professionals" still continue to make money. I damn sure hope so because we all live in the same neighborhood.

 

Steve, I understand how your general environment works but don't assume you understand mine.

 

I read and wonder why you both puff your chests out angrily exclaiming " I know more than you" when neither one of you would dare demonstrate that what you "know" in a real time situation. Before you both get all pissy, why doesn't Steve post a trade he is going to take before the fact and the exit he is going to take before the fact to demonstrate for all that he actually can be correct 78% of the time. He is certainly willing to boast about it, he should, then certainly be willing to prove it. Logic you too can prove your brilliance that you are so eager to boast about. Time permitting, I will be more than happy to join both of you.

 

If you are having difficulty understanding the jist of the above, I am asking you both to put your money where your mouth is; otherwise, you are both a bunch of talk.

[joshdance 10]

I said that your assumption that viewing/trading time AND volume charts or volume charts and any other combination of variable based charting were an advantage over just volume charts and that is incorrect. I've analyzed them, side-by-side for 8 years and know what the pure raw data shows.

 

Fair enough, I suppose I did imply that time-based charts have an advantage. Perhaps I came across as saying that your method is lacking something. But please understand that was not my intention. But you implied that using time-based charts is somehow "less advanced" than volume charts, as if the natural progression for all traders is to volume charts much in the way an infant by necessity grows into maturity. My point is that the path of progression of all traders may not pass through volume-chart-ville.

 

I would never think about trying to instruct you on improving your dance techniques, that would be ignorant. I respect the fact that you have spent so many years at your art. So don't tell me I missed something in my research especially when you are standing on the outside looking in, that is offensive. I've earned the right to be defensive about my creation especially when someone is making an inaccurate statement regarding it.

 

Neither am I trying to instruct you in any way Logic. I agree you've earned the right to be defensive, but my point Logic is that I'm not attacking your creation. I said nothing inaccurate about volume-based charts, only that they omit the time variable. I keep a volume chart on my workspace for the very benefits you mention. I did say that time was valuable, and you may disagree with that, but it's only inaccurate in the context of your own trading. It's valuable to me and many others.

 

At any rate, I certainly don't want to get into more of an argument than we already have here. I appreciate your contribution to the trading community in volume charts, and I will continue to use them in my trading, along with other tools which I subjectively feel are important. :-)

[steve46 12]

I read and wonder why you both puff your chests out angrily exclaiming " I know more than you" when neither one of you would dare demonstrate that what you "know" in a real time situation. Before you both get all pissy, why doesn't Steve post a trade he is going to take before the fact and the exit he is going to take before the fact to demonstrate for all that he actually can be correct 78% of the time. He is certainly willing to boast about it, he should, then certainly be willing to prove it. Logic you too can prove your brilliance that you are so eager to boast about. Time permitting, I will be more than happy to join both of you.

 

If you are having difficulty understanding the jist of the above, I am asking you both to put your money where your mouth is; otherwise, you are both a bunch of talk.

 

Everybody here is a "bunch of talk" champ........you as much or more than anyone else...

 

Now if we compare the threads I have authored to yours...I am still wondering WHERE you have offered a systematic approach to the market that works....? Mine can be found in "An Institutional look at the S&P Futures"........and in "Trading Adverse Events" and of course "Ideas for Struggling Traders" you on the other hand have done nothing of note except display your ignorance...repeatedly...

 

By the way, challenging people to demonstrate what they are doing is the oldest ploy on the Internet...."Prove it"....right? Why? If I am able to make money with the approach that I outline in my threads, what do I have to gain by letting you see the details? Nothing....YOU are the only one who gains....Its a silly adolescent attempt to get something for nothing...

 

I am sure you can understand now why most of the time I ignore you.

 

Sorry but if you want to shake your little fist at someone, you shouldn't be surprised when you get verbal slapdown.

Edited May 7, 2011 by steve46

[MightyMouse 12]

Everybody here is a "bunch of talk" champ........you as much or more than anyone else...

 

Now if we compare the threads I have authored to yours...I am still wondering WHERE you have offered a systematic approach to the market that works....? Mine can be found in "An Institutional look at the S&P Futures"........and in "Trading Adverse Events" and of course "Ideas for Struggling Traders" you on the other hand have done nothing of note except display your ignorance...repeatedly...

 

By the way, challenging people to demonstrate what they are doing is the oldest ploy on the Internet...."Prove it"....right? Why? If I am able to make money with the approach that I outline in my threads, what do I have to gain by letting you see the details? Nothing....YOU are the only one who gains....Its a silly adolescent attempt to get something for nothing...

 

I am sure you can understand now why most of the time I ignore you.

 

Sorry but if you want to shake your little fist at someone, you shouldn't be surprised when you get verbal slapdown.

 

Steve,

 

You have surprised me. I did not think you would take the bait and allow me to expose you.

 

You are without doubt one of the best at explaining the market after the fact. I find it extraordinarily helpful to learn that there was demand when price went up. I learned your system. I know it so well that when I see the market hit a high for the day and recedes, I can be certain that you will say that you took a short a few ticks from the high. Admittedly, I still have not learned how to get an entry a few ticks from the low or the high when the market is 5 points away like you do. We are all working on that.

 

You can compare miy thread to yours. I made mistakes and bad calls like a real trader would. I also demonstrated with all before the fact decision that one can make money in the market without being right all the time. I hope that was helpful to all struggling traders who are fed bullshit from wannabe traders who claim they can be right 78% of the time. I showed that what I do works, but I guess you can say that I accidentally made 70 ES points in one trade starting with 2 contracts in a span of 30 points. Personally, I think I was lucky for that trade to happen. If one followed along and were able to take the entries I said, before the fact, that I was going to take, one could have duplicated my results.

 

On the other hand, your thread is all after the fact. " Here is where I got in" Here is where I got out" See? Past tense. All of it past tense. No one can enter where you did. Yes, a new trader will wish that he can do what you do. An experienced trader will say, BS and walk away. I am not that experienced trader. I am the guy who sees a snake and starts poking a stick at it. I am flawed.

 

I think everyone who has gotten a "verbal slapdown" from you would also like to see how your system actually works with before the fact entries and exits. You admitted yourself you didn't learn my approach in my thread so others wouldn't learn yours if you posted a few trades. Oh, I am a little flattered that you tried to find out what i was doing. It makes me feel good that an institutional trader was interested. Thanks. I have an ego too.

 

I stated that I was not going to teach anyone a system, but I was going to show how to make money. I do not mind helping people if I can, but I have no intention of teaching. I am probably not a good teacher and I need my time for other businesses that I am involved with. I do not make a living trading and I have posted that much in other threads. And it makes no difference to me if anyone knows that. I have also stated that one needs a great deal of capital to generate an income from trading. I suppose you you can get buy with a lot less if you live in a paper bag.

 

I will give you a chronology of oldest tricks. They precede the internet by centuries.

 

Oldest: Trying to pull a scam or a con

 

Second oldest: Someone challenging the conman.

 

Third oldest: The conman wriggling away from a challenge because he has something to hide or he is really weak and vulnerable.

 

Next time make sure that you indicate that my post is the second oldest trick and not the oldest. Since you committed one and three you should have known this.

 

Now be a good boy and try to prove that I am a bigger liar than you, or spout some hot air or call me names, or say I know nothing. Or, you and I can post a few trades together like gentlemen who have nothing to hide and no fear of being exposed and you can show us all how you have not had a losing week in 12 years and average 78%. I, on the other hand, have had losing weeks and months and average about 35% and I have nothing to lose by admitting it and I am completely willing to stand behind my offer in spite of the fact that my performance appears inferior to yours. Show us you are consciously competent, do not tell us.

 

I do hope the hook didn't tear your lip. My intention was to throw you back.

[steve46 12]

This is on the level of a 9 year old child. apparently your emotional age

 

Get real. Most people here are (like myself) running out of patience with your silly adolescent crap

 

If you need help...go back to my threads, and do some of your own work

 

Just applying time based pivots to a distribution of prices...an intelligent person could fashion a systematic approach that worked...thats what we do...We apply principles of human behavior to a distribution of prices..we trade only at the extremes of that distribution and it works consistently........if it didn't work professionals wouldn't use it...

 

You get slapped down and then we have to endure multiple paragraphs of your irrational ramblings as you attempt to explain yourself

 

I can assess your situation in three sentences

 

1. You have no clue as to how this business works

2. You're getting desperate because you can't seem to find an approach that works

3. You'r running out of money...

 

Expose someone? yeah right....tear up....yes perhaps..... with laughter....Thanks for the entertainment...

 

I would say we are done....

Edited May 7, 2011 by steve46

[Logic 10]

Fair enough, I suppose I did imply that time-based charts have an advantage. Perhaps I came across as saying that your method is lacking something. But please understand that was not my intention. But you implied that using time-based charts is somehow "less advanced" than volume charts, as if the natural progression for all traders is to volume charts much in the way an infant by necessity grows into maturity. My point is that the path of progression of all traders may not pass through volume-chart-ville.

 

Neither am I trying to instruct you in any way Logic. I agree you've earned the right to be defensive, but my point Logic is that I'm not attacking your creation. I said nothing inaccurate about volume-based charts, only that they omit the time variable. I keep a volume chart on my workspace for the very benefits you mention. I did say that time was valuable, and you may disagree with that, but it's only inaccurate in the context of your own trading. It's valuable to me and many others.

 

At any rate, I certainly don't want to get into more of an argument than we already have here. I appreciate your contribution to the trading community in volume charts, and I will continue to use them in my trading, along with other tools which I subjectively feel are important. :-)

 

Yes, Volume Charts omit the time variable and for a reason.

I've studied how time plays out in the markets and specifically on charts and came to the conclusion many years ago that adding something to the purity of a chart that needs interpreted dilutes profitability not enhances it.

If you and many others find adding it to your charts, that is your prerogative. I apologize if I responded harshly.

Great trading to you.

[IchibomB 10]

How can the market profile be considered technical analysis when all it shows is supply and demand?

Supply and Demand is a basic economic fundamental concept...

 

Either way, I love it.

[Logic 10]

Within the next 90 days, I will have completed a program to post live trades to Twitter. These posts will contain; Buy, Sell, Reverse, Exit, Time Date and price of execution for a particualr Futures chart. I will make the page known later. You can follow my trading in real time by getting these twitter alerts. Once you subscribe to the twitter page I will also send you an computer annotated chart at the end of the day to show you where your alerts you were sent triggered.

 

About 90 days after the release of my stand alone software I will introduce a website that will allow you to follow all of your Stock, Commodity, Futures, Option and ETF positions in real time as well, using the same triggers as my software but the website will only be for swing & position trading.

 

Following the trades on Twitter is free.

Oh, the website will be free too.

[MightyMouse 12]

This is on the level of a 9 year old child. apparently your emotional age

 

Get real. Most people here are (like myself) running out of patience with your silly adolescent crap

 

If you need help...go back to my threads, and do some of your own work

 

Just applying time based pivots to a distribution of prices...an intelligent person could fashion a systematic approach that worked...thats what we do...We apply principles of human behavior to a distribution of prices..we trade only at the extremes of that distribution and it works consistently........if it didn't work professionals wouldn't use it...

 

You get slapped down and then we have to endure multiple paragraphs of your irrational ramblings as you attempt to explain yourself

 

I can assess your situation in three sentences

 

1. You have no clue as to how this business works

2. You're getting desperate because you can't seem to find an approach that works

3. You'r running out of money...

 

Expose someone? yeah right....tear up....yes perhaps..... with laughter....Thanks for the entertainment...

 

I would say we are done....

 

You couldn't be more wrong with your assessments and as expected you resort to name calling and you call me a 9 year old. Thank you again for making me correct..

 

I think it is clear to most that you simply do not have the balls to take me up on my offer. You just do not have the balls.

 

One more time. You just do not have the balls.

[steve46 12]

You couldn't be more wrong with your assessments and as expected you resort to name calling and you call me a 9 year old. Thank you again for making me correct..

 

I think it is clear to most that you simply do not have the balls to take me up on my offer. You just do not have the balls.

 

One more time. You just do not have the balls.

 

 

So lets make it clear what you have just said...you want me to compromise the trust of my students so that you can get what you want...ethics doesn't matter to you...thats what you have just said...

 

and there is no "name calling"...I am accurately characterizing your behavior as typical of a 9 year old child....We expect children not to understand the issues of ethics and trust at that age...

 

Thank you for being honest, now I am going to go have a life while you continue to dig yourself a deeper hole.

Edited May 7, 2011 by steve46

[MightyMouse 12]

So lets make it clear what you have just said...you want me to compromise the trust of my students so that you can get what you want...ethics doesn't matter to you...thats what you have just said...

 

and there is no "name calling"...I am accurately characterizing your behavior as typical of a 9 year old child....We expect children not to understand the issues of ethics and trust at that age...

 

Thank you for being honest, now I am going to go have a life while you continue to dig yourself a deeper hole.

 

Somehow you feel that posting a few trades with before the fact entries and exits is going to compromise the trust of your students and I am unethical because I asked you to do this. Wow! Its like listening to a mad man defend himself.

[joshdance 10]

By the way, challenging people to demonstrate what they are doing is the oldest ploy on the Internet...."Prove it"....right? Why? If I am able to make money with the approach that I outline in my threads, what do I have to gain by letting you see the details? Nothing....YOU are the only one who gains....Its a silly adolescent attempt to get something for nothing...

 

I don't think he's asking to see the details of how you take the trade, just something that would indicate that you actually take the trade. Would that benefit you? Not really, except that if you're looking for credibility then you have none really in terms of actually trading. Your analysis is great, but then again, so is any analysis done in hindsight. My charts of trades that I should have taken look beautiful too, and about 50% of them I actually see in real time but do not take for one reason or another (among them fear and any other number of emotions which get in the way of placing good trades).

 

I've never seen you post a trade that you were going to take or actually said "I'm long at XYZ", only trades that you supposedly took or just analysis. In other words, anyone can post what you've posted and sound like an expert and not be a trader at all, only a hindsight analyst. I'm not saying you are full of crap, as I can't prove and don't really care one way or the other. But your method of trading and instrument are both particularly well-suited for posting a trade which you WILL take (trading the edges, which you know well before price gets there, and the indices which are slow enough). For example, over in the thread on Reading Charts in Real Time there are hundreds of posts by thales and others who post their trades before they are entered, and the good and bad results of those trades. Likewise, MM also posted a thread here where he took a couple of trades and posted his entries, stops, and exits, AHEAD OF TIME. I did not go through your "Ideas for struggling traders" thread, but in your other two main ones I found, I only found one post where you said you were in a trade with a downside target, and you happened to be short supposedly exactly when it reversed up here. Perhaps there are examples I have missed, but that's what I found.

 

I have put levels on my chart and find that price hits them weeks later, but that doesn't mean that I actually took the trade. Again, you have great information, but this in and of itself does not really help people in actually trading, as every genius out there and vendor posts charts of what happened, and act like it's common sense--funny that they didn't have the common sense that it was going to happen before it actually did, or the conviction in their belief to post that chart of what was GOING to happen, instead of posting what DID happen.

 

I would not care to post this normally, but you talk to others like you're coming down off of Mt. Olympus to speak with the mortals, saying things like this over and over. I just hate to see people getting talked down to from someone who has not shown that he can do any better.

[steve46 12]

Interestingly, although you complain about my tone of voice, you and many others (according to the page views) have taken the time to read the posts (all of them)...... and I am pretty sure you have taken as much from them as you can....regardless of whether you think I am trading or not...

 

I don't agree with your premise Josh...and I think the best way to resolve your skepticism is to suggest that you ignore me and don't read my posts...that solves your issue about being "talked down to" once and for all....

 

I am glad I could be of help to you....sorry we won't be talking again...

 

Good luck in the markets

Edited May 8, 2011 by steve46

[BlowFish 10]

Interesting discussion about what is essentially a data sampling issue. There are various common (and less common ways) to sample financial data series. You can choose to sample with respect to constant time, constant price (range) or constant volume for example. Depending on what you want to see and what you are less interested in seeing might make a particular sampling method 'best' for you. Seems like both Steve and the Prof know exactly what they want to see and have chosen the appropriate data sampling method for them. There is an important lesson in there but it is not 'x bar type is better than y'.

[steve46 12]

Interesting discussion about what is essentially a data sampling issue. There are various common (and less common ways) to sample financial data series. You can choose to sample with respect to constant time, constant price (range) or constant volume for example. Depending on what you want to see and what you are less interested in seeing might make a particular sampling method 'best' for you. Seems like both Steve and the Prof know exactly what they want to see and have chosen the appropriate data sampling method for them. There is an important lesson in there but it is not 'x bar type is better than y'.

 

Sure we can go in that direction....although not many will be "interested" or able to follow if you do...I'll take a stab at it.....what is the minimum statistically significant sample size for segemented data? I was taught that it depends on how much confidence you want to have in the result and whether or not you want to be able to reject the "nulll hyothesis" and avoid making a "type II" error...

To be clear, with time based pivots, my office did the work long ago with more than 10 years of data..this is the reason why when I talk about it I am "confident"...

Further when you talk about trading..this is but one of the significant differences between professionals and amateurs...amateurs want to see if you took trades thinking that the success of a short term series means something...professionals know it means little or nothing and WILL NOT TRADE A SYSTEM JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE ELSE HAS A COUPLE OF WINNERS IN FRONT OF THEM. Generally speaking, skilled traders won't trade a system until they verify it themselves...

[steve46 12]

and while I have a moment lets extend blowfish's comment a bit further..

In terms of my training, I was taught that systems based on a statistically significant sample size are likely to be more or less profitable as the raw data (the market) cycles in and out of "stationarity"...(I will leave the research to the reader)...Since the market exhibits stationarity on different TIME FRAMES, if you want to be consistently profitable, you need to find a way to identify what those time frames are and when your target market is cycling between stationarity and non-stationarity....

I am always glad to learn something new, so as you can imagine, I look forward to hearing your comment.

[Logic 10]

Generally speaking, skilled traders won't trade a system until they verify it themselves...

 

I absolutely agree, 150%!!

[Logic 10]

I am always glad to learn something new, so as you can imagine, I look forward to hearing your comment.

 

Do you truly have an open mind or are there restrictions?

[steve46 12]

If you have something of substance to contribute by all means...go right ahead

 

If you look back at the silly and petty little comments that preceeded these recent posts, I ask you "how could one NOT have an open mind and still post here"?

[MightyMouse 12]

Interesting discussion about what is essentially a data sampling issue. There are various common (and less common ways) to sample financial data series. You can choose to sample with respect to constant time, constant price (range) or constant volume for example. Depending on what you want to see and what you are less interested in seeing might make a particular sampling method 'best' for you. Seems like both Steve and the Prof know exactly what they want to see and have chosen the appropriate data sampling method for them. There is an important lesson in there but it is not 'x bar type is better than y'.

 

Yes, Blowfish. Each method of recording data will highlight something slightly different about the market and provide the trader with information that he can use to develop strategies to take money from the market. Unfortunately, the unsophisticated egos that frequent these threads need to exclaim that all that matters is what they choose to look at because they have looked at a zillion years or data and concluded years ago that all that matters is what they look at and what you look at can't possibly matter because you are a retail trader and his way is better than your way even though he does not have the guts to demonstrate all he claims before the fact.

 

It's a great lesson in unadulterated myopia that new traders should examine and attempt to weed from their personalities so that they can develop into successful traders.