Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?

[MightyMouse 12]

30? I'm out - is that like some Logans run reference (circa 1976), or the number of posts, or both - you are on the run now?

 

Interesting idea of value.....I understand the first part - for most traders we are looking for value trades - ie; those with positive expected returns, or whatever makes you money, long or short.

For the second part "the only hope is to find expected value" especially linking traders and investors together - what do you mean by that?

 

I would think we would hope that

a....the market is currently pricing the instrument with a different value to the expected future value, and

b....we can then manage to caputre that difference

 

thanks

 

Logan's Run is a Farrah Faucett reference. She had a cameo part, but I was greatful

[Obsidian 10]

...TA will never give 100% over a long period of time, but it will cut out a lot of bad trades.

TEAMTRADER

 

You are right.

noone can constantly catch main trend reversals..there will always be unpredictable variables (including natural disasters)

[TheDude 10]

with the exception of market profile (which isnt really technical analysis), ive never met a single trader who made money from charts. never. not one.

 

they may use a chart as a guide from time to time, but they dont base their trading from one.

[joshdance 10]

with the exception of market profile (which isnt really technical analysis), ive never met a single trader who made money from charts. never. not one.

 

they may use a chart as a guide from time to time, but they dont base their trading from one.

 

How many traders have you met? It's a reasonable question to ask, as you have cited purely anecdotal observations and implied by posting them that there are conclusions to be drawn from them beyond the scope of your personal observations, as if they might be empirically-based. I don't know anyone personally who's unemployed, but between 3 and 4 out of every 25 Americans are not working; my relatively limited observation really says little about the actual picture.

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

they may use a chart as a guide from time to time, but they dont base their trading from one.

 

 

 

What does that mean?

[TheDude 10]

How many traders have you met? It's a reasonable question to ask, as you have cited purely anecdotal observations and implied by posting them that there are conclusions to be drawn from them beyond the scope of your personal observations, as if they might be empirically-based. I don't know anyone personally who's unemployed, but between 3 and 4 out of every 25 Americans are not working; my relatively limited observation really says little about the actual picture.

 

id say around 100+

 

i get your point. im sure there are 1000's of successful traders who use TA. Odd how most of them are on the internet though and not trading professionally.

 

of course the trading styles are some what different in a professional environment - but then again, that perhaps sheds more light on the use of TA. if TA was of any use, they'd use it and milk it. they dont. Have you noticed Bloomberg and Reuters charts (on the terminals) are pretty basic. Whys that?

 

they say 90% of traders lose. I say 90% of traders are using the wrong tools, and are too busy making sure they trade according to their precious trading plan! Woe and more woe should they break any of the sacred rules of said plan.

 

one of the big problems with TA is that it enforces a rules based approach. this means that. if only....

[joshdance 10]

they say 90% of traders lose. I say 90% of traders are using the wrong tools, and are too busy making sure they trade according to their precious trading plan! Woe and more woe should they break any of the sacred rules of said plan.

 

one of the big problems with TA is that it enforces a rules based approach. this means that. if only....

 

I understand your point and agree very much with your premise, I just wanted to keep you "honest"

 

And I agree with your thought on the Holy Plan, and the Rules of Divinity too. So, you advocate trading using the DOM, or what? Let's get down to bid-ness here Dude.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

id say around 100+

 

i get your point. im sure there are 1000's of successful traders who use TA. Odd how most of them are on the internet though and not trading professionally.

 

of course the trading styles are some what different in a professional environment - but then again, that perhaps sheds more light on the use of TA. if TA was of any use, they'd use it and milk it. they dont. Have you noticed Bloomberg and Reuters charts (on the terminals) are pretty basic. Whys that?

 

they say 90% of traders lose. I say 90% of traders are using the wrong tools, and are too busy making sure they trade according to their precious trading plan! Woe and more woe should they break any of the sacred rules of said plan.

 

one of the big problems with TA is that it enforces a rules based approach. this means that. if only....

 

A majority of the highest performing funds use a rule-based approach.

 

To say that non rule-based trading is possible is entirely reasonable; to claim that rule-based trading doesn't work borders on the ridiculous.

 

Technical analysis isn't dependent on charts. Charts are just a visual way of displaying price data (the same data on the terminals you mention). Technical analysis is about how price data is structured and analysed, and how significant information can be sifted from insignificant information.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[TheDude 10]

well, i trade several different ways....

 

mp for some day-position trades across a variety of futures (except es and us).

dom on es or us for day trading - i may use a chart for bearings, who doesnt. 95% of it is just the numbers

seasonal spreads - i'll use a chart to see how the market is against the seasonal norm, but when im in a trade its just the numbers

stocks - long term stuff, i'll just use a chart to make sure it's not in a major down trend thats all. buy & forget. just look at the numbers against my entry once a month or whenever. collect the dividend.

 

so all though i may look at a chart from time to time, i dont use TA. the closest i'd get is mp. as you well know, mp is a whole different idea and perhaps even goes against some ta logic.

 

i dont need 'bills magic moving volume average' to tell me 104 is higher than 38 and im making money if long/losing if short. it aint that difficult is it!

 

patience is the key. i know only too well from staring at md trader too long that that sudden capitulation is often a good time to fade, when poor old db phoenix and his chums are looking at their volume tool and thinking 'more to follow'. 'fraid not son. have you got a stop in the market? good, i'll take that too! i know where it is - it's just above the moving average, or the last high/low isn't it. thats why i have my chart for. lifes a bitch sometimes :haha:

[TheDude 10]

A majority of the highest performing funds use a rule-based approach.

 

To say that non rule-based trading is possible is entirely reasonable; to claim that rule-based trading doesn't work borders on the ridiculous.

 

Technical analysis isn't dependent on charts. Charts are just a visual way of displaying price data (the same data on the terminals you mention). Technical analysis is about how price data is structured and analysed, and how significant information can be sifted from insignificant information.

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

yeah yeah yeah.

 

take your beloved trend line. the first love of any ta.

 

now change the scale of your chart. take another look at your magic line.

 

WOAH!! the line doesnt fit anymore. what happened. and you based your trading on some figment of your imagination because some lame-brain on the internet or wanna-be-author said it's the biz.

 

why are macd, rsi and the rest of it always giving entry when the move is already confirmed?

 

sure there are some great systematic traders out there. all hft is based on rules of course. im not having a go at tried and tested algo's, but people who trade ta based rule approaches.

 

cta's (who i guess your talking about) may use market info, but it aint trend lines, ma's, rsi and other such bs.

[gosu 10]

yeah yeah yeah.

 

take your beloved trend line. the first love of any ta.

 

now change the scale of your chart. take another look at your magic line.

 

WOAH!! the line doesnt fit anymore. what happened. and you based your trading on some figment of your imagination because some lame-brain on the internet or wanna-be-author said it's the biz.

 

* * *

 

By "change the scale" do you mean changing the bar duration (e.g., 5m to 15m)? To me "scale" means the marks along the sides of the chart. My charts have price on the vertical and time on the horizontal and when I widen or narrow either scale, the lines get adjusted along with the price bars.

 

If changing the bar duration is what you meant, my question is why would you expect your annotations on one bar duration to be unchanged when you change the bar duration?

 

Now, if you're talking about ANGLES, that's a different story.

[Kiwi 16]

with the exception of market profile (which isnt really technical analysis), ive never met a single trader who made money from charts. never. not one.

 

they may use a chart as a guide from time to time, but they dont base their trading from one.

 

ta = using price and time (and maybe volume) to predict when it's worth entering or exiting a trade

 

(probabilistic prediction ... if x,y,z then X% of the time price will reach Y before it reaches Z or some more complex exit strategy will be profitable before it reaches Z)

(when you do it over a sequence then the sequence has a positive expectancy (avg & std deviation))

Actually market profile is 100% ta so you can add everyone who you know who uses mp successfully to your list of profitable ta traders.

[Kiwi 16]

It is worth noting that Steidlmayer is revising the hell out of his view of Market Profile with volume strips and his current presentations (one yesterday to be repeated soon). As always he's hard to understand but it is worth the effort for the tiny insights into his variant thinking.

 

I personally use structure (horizontal) on multiple timeframes to trade profitably. I also check the volume profile (see volume strips for an argument of why it is useful) for major peaks as they are worth adding to Support and Resistance, Supply and Demand Zones, for areas where retracements at some timeframe level offer a high expectancy opportunity.

 

Generally speaking structure on a price vs time chart seems more precise (better expectancy) than the MP/VP based opportunities although very strong profiles, especially virgins can be stunningly good.

 

Damn, 999 posts, that is a really nice number.

 

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

cta's (who i guess your talking about) may use market info, but it aint trend lines, ma's, rsi and other such bs.

 

 

It's a guess, not more.

 

Nobody talked here about trend lines, MA's, RSI, etc.

 

The thread title is about "technical analysis", which is - to my understanding - defined as ANY technique that uses market information (price and volume) for the purpose of identifying trading opportunities (as opposed to fundamental analysis). As Kiwi said, Market Profile is also technical analysis.

 

And if you are using trend lines and MA's to hunt for stops, then you are using technical analysis too. Nobody stated here HOW to use technical analysis best.

 

The thread is also not about rule-based versus discretionary trading.

Edited June 22, 2012 by karoshiman

[TheDude 10]

It's a guess, not more.

 

Nobody talked here about trend lines, MA's, RSI, etc.

 

The thread title is about "technical analysis", which is - to my understanding - defined as ANY technique that uses market information (price and volume) for the purpose of identifying trading opportunities (as opposed to fundamental analysis). As Kiwi said, Market Profile is also technical analysis.

 

And if you are using trend lines and MA's to hunt for stops, then you are using technical analysis too. Nobody stated here HOW to use technical analysis best.

 

The thread is also not about rule-based versus discretionary trading.

 

a guess that cta's dont use TA? no, its a certainty. they may use some aspects, but all systematic cta's will consider some elements of ta, but also fundamentals and sentiment data.

 

MP isnt TA. Period. I dont care what kiwi thinks (with all due respect to him)

 

TA is the use of ohlc bars in various forms and volume data, and extrapolating other information from that data such as indicators. MP doesnt do that. MP came about as peter wrote, purely because TA is a crock and never helped any trader make money. it was a new paradigm to use instead.

 

as soul trader pointed out in the first post, he has found ta just dont work.

professional traders have also found ta just dont work.

if it did, they would use ta.

 

I guess this is a hard one to swallow for some people. they have sunk so much time and effort into research and trading, only to find its a crock. most people cant accept the truth and keep following the herds on the internet who use ta, believing it must work otherwise all the others wouldnt use it. so, they typically stop trading indicators, move to patterns, then price/volume only, then volume bars etc - its a never ending circle. the fact is that the majority of the people they follow arent making money either. they just say they are. its the blind leading the blind.

 

seriously. ask yourself. why dont professional traders use TA? how is it only retail traders use TA? how is it all the snakeoil salesmen peddle TA?

 

im sure there are some who do make money. for example, electronic local seems legit. his use of ta is probably one of the most simple approaches ive seen - but its clear he has kind of reverse engineered and reinvented the wheel in to something else. you can tell a LOT of work went into discovering what hes done - work most just couldnt be fagged with. very innovative. still, ive never met him.

 

all im saying here is that out of ALL professional traders ive PERSONALLY MET (i used to work on the floor and am in touch with loads of x colleagues who now work in banks, asset managers, hedge funds, cta's and prop firms trading on a screen), NONE of them trade using TA as the cornerstone of their strategy. Therefore, should you?

 

All im saying is that TA is probably too subjective for many to be of any use. Is that a H&S pattern? in time it develops in to a rectangle or a triangle? Maybe if it breaks down it was indeed a h&s. However if it breaks up, they lable it a triangle. hindsight trading. what a crock !

[TheDude 10]

It is worth noting that Steidlmayer is revising the hell out of his view of Market Profile with volume strips and his current presentations (one yesterday to be repeated soon). As always he's hard to understand but it is worth the effort for the tiny insights into his variant thinking.

 

I personally use structure (horizontal) on multiple timeframes to trade profitably. I also check the volume profile (see volume strips for an argument of why it is useful) for major peaks as they are worth adding to Support and Resistance, Supply and Demand Zones, for areas where retracements at some timeframe level offer a high expectancy opportunity.

 

Generally speaking structure on a price vs time chart seems more precise (better expectancy) than the MP/VP based opportunities although very strong profiles, especially virgins can be stunningly good.

 

Damn, 999 posts, that is a really nice number.

 

 

what happened with volume strips?

 

ive seen the cme seminar but thats it. i read somewhere he stopped developing it. do you know where there is more info? what it looks like?

 

it seemed to me to be similar to volume at price bars available on md trader - and probably other doms.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

what happened with volume strips?

 

ive seen the cme seminar but thats it. i read somewhere he stopped developing it. do you know where there is more info? what it looks like?

 

it seemed to me to be similar to volume at price bars available on md trader - and probably other doms.

 

You seem strangely fascinated, for someone who thinks that TA is "a crock"

[karoshiman 10]

 

a guess that cta's dont use TA?

 

...

 

 

 

You said, you guess we are talking about CTA's, but we didn't.

 

 

 

TA is the use of ohlc bars in various forms and volume data, and extrapolating other information from that data such as indicators.

 

...

 

 

 

That's your definition.

 

 

 

as soul trader pointed out in the first post, he has found ta just dont work.

 

...

 

 

 

As far as I understand his post, he says, it does not work intraday but it does on daily charts.

 

So, what does work in your opinion? You mentioned already MP. What else are the professional traders you have met using?

[Roger Felton 10]

a guess that cta's dont use TA? no, its a certainty. they may use some aspects, but all systematic cta's will consider some elements of ta, but also fundamentals and sentiment data.

 

MP isnt TA. Period. I dont care what kiwi thinks (with all due respect to him)

 

TA is the use of ohlc bars in various forms and volume data, and extrapolating other information from that data such as indicators. MP doesnt do that. MP came about as peter wrote, purely because TA is a crock and never helped any trader make money. it was a new paradigm to use instead.

 

as soul trader pointed out in the first post, he has found ta just dont work.

professional traders have also found ta just dont work.

if it did, they would use ta.

 

I guess this is a hard one to swallow for some people. they have sunk so much time and effort into research and trading, only to find its a crock. most people cant accept the truth and keep following the herds on the internet who use ta, believing it must work otherwise all the others wouldnt use it. so, they typically stop trading indicators, move to patterns, then price/volume only, then volume bars etc - its a never ending circle. the fact is that the majority of the people they follow arent making money either. they just say they are. its the blind leading the blind.

 

seriously. ask yourself. why dont professional traders use TA? how is it only retail traders use TA? how is it all the snakeoil salesmen peddle TA?

 

im sure there are some who do make money. for example, electronic local seems legit. his use of ta is probably one of the most simple approaches ive seen - but its clear he has kind of reverse engineered and reinvented the wheel in to something else. you can tell a LOT of work went into discovering what hes done - work most just couldnt be fagged with. very innovative. still, ive never met him.

 

all im saying here is that out of ALL professional traders ive PERSONALLY MET (i used to work on the floor and am in touch with loads of x colleagues who now work in banks, asset managers, hedge funds, cta's and prop firms trading on a screen), NONE of them trade using TA as the cornerstone of their strategy. Therefore, should you?

 

All im saying is that TA is probably too subjective for many to be of any use. Is that a H&S pattern? in time it develops in to a rectangle or a triangle? Maybe if it breaks down it was indeed a h&s. However if it breaks up, they lable it a triangle. hindsight trading. what a crock !

 

TheDude, you're either a Fundamental trader, a TA trader, or a combination of both. MP is NOT Fundamental trading. It's simply another form of using technical data analysis (TA) to make trading decisions. So you're not a big fan of H&S...welcome to the club. It is subjective. One traders H&S pattern is another's Triple Top. Your ignorance of highly advanced technical analysis is extremely obvious.

 

Why is it that, when something doesn't work for someone, they feel they have to ridicule it and assume it is impossible to work for anyone else? TD, if you are making gobs of money trading by the phases of the moon, then what right do I have to say your system is BS? Whenever I meet a trader who is enjoying consistent success with some technique, I always try to learn more about it...not waste my time (and others) trying to ridicule it in forums. But that's just a fundamental difference between us, I guess.

 

One thing I noticed is that you use very weak examples to support your case...and your data is pulled out of thin air.

 

All CTA's are professionals? CTA's never use TA? What do CTA's have to do with anything? Anyone can study and become a CTA and never have evere taken a trade...even in sim. I know several of them and they only became CTA's to help them sell more books or trading courses. If you are holding up CTA's as examples of "Trading Professionals", then it only serves to point out bias, ignorance, or both.

 

Anyone who knows anything about floor traders knows that you cannot compare them to electronic traders. They come from two entirely different planets. Most floor traders I know are ex-floor traders. They are becomming extinct because their market knowledge and skills can't compete with computerized electronic trading. Many of them are actually computer illiterate. In my years of experience, floor traders are the most difficult to convert to electronic trading. They may be professionals in their world but they sure aren't in ours. The fact that a group of traders who barely know how to turn a computer on don't use Technical Analysis should be no surprise.

 

To say that ALL professional traders DO NOT use TA is absurd...but that's probably because your idea of a trading pro is a guy jumping up and down in a pit while wildly waving his arms.

 

Of course, all that guy has to do is go take a test and become a CTA and then his only problem is where to put all that money he's suddenly making in electronic trading.

[joshdance 10]

a guess that cta's dont use TA? no, its a certainty. they may use some aspects, but all systematic cta's will consider some elements of ta, but also fundamentals and sentiment data.

 

MP isnt TA. Period. I dont care what kiwi thinks (with all due respect to him)

 

TA is the use of ohlc bars in various forms and volume data, and extrapolating other information from that data such as indicators. MP doesnt do that. MP came about as peter wrote, purely because TA is a crock and never helped any trader make money. it was a new paradigm to use instead.

 

as soul trader pointed out in the first post, he has found ta just dont work.

professional traders have also found ta just dont work.

if it did, they would use ta.

 

Your lack of logic and objectivity is actually quite stunning Dude. It's as if you are assuming the role of authority on a tool which you don't even use; you get to define it, then you get to call it crap. Wow...!

 

im sure there are some who do make money. for example, electronic local seems legit. his use of ta is probably one of the most simple approaches ive seen

 

:rofl: :rofl: This statement puts into perspective everything you've said so far. I won't "vendor bash" here Dude, but if you think he is legit, when he, like most every other vendor, has never proved that every single chart is not simply marked up at the end of the day, then your logic switch has a short in it somewhere, my friend. Pay him 10 grand, and you get to come trade with him for 5 days--what a deal!

 

all im saying here is that out of ALL..

All im saying is that TA is probably too subjective ...

 

Even your writing style makes it clear that you don't really know what 'you're saying here.' Your lack of organization of thoughts makes it evident that you're pretty much just throwing stuff out there. I'm not really disagreeing with all your conclusions; but your assumptions are very suspect and don't hold a lot of water in my book.

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

im sure there are some who do make money. for example, electronic local seems legit. his use of ta is probably one of the most simple approaches ive seen - but its clear he has kind of reverse engineered and reinvented the wheel in to something else. you can tell a LOT of work went into discovering what hes done - work most just couldnt be fagged with. very innovative. still, ive never met him.

 

....

 

 

 

First thing I've noticed on his chart (very first video on the site on Crude):

 

- CCI indicator

- 2 MA's

- Fibs

- all of it in a Renko chart

 

Very innovative...

[SIUYA 11]

a guess that cta's dont use TA? no, its a certainty. they may use some aspects, but all systematic cta's will consider some elements of ta, but also fundamentals and sentiment data.

 

unfortunately you clearly have not met the systemised managed future ctas who prefer to rely purely on price data for their decisions....but then a lot does depend on your definition....

 

TA is the use of ohlc bars in various forms and volume data, and extrapolating other information from that data such as indicators.

 

while many might agree with your sentiments again its your limited definition of TA.....its a bit like saying my definition of it being daytime is when the sun is shining.....what about when its cloudy, raining, snowing.

..........................

seriously. ask yourself. why dont professional traders use TA? how is it only retail traders use TA? how is it all the snakeoil salesmen peddle TA?

.........................

all im saying here is that out of ALL professional traders ive PERSONALLY MET (i used to work on the floor and am in touch with loads of x colleagues who now work in banks, asset managers, hedge funds, cta's and prop firms trading on a screen), NONE of them trade using TA as the cornerstone of their strategy. Therefore, should you?

 

All im saying is that TA is probably too subjective for many to be of any use. Is that a H&S pattern? in time it develops in to a rectangle or a triangle? Maybe if it breaks down it was indeed a h&s. However if it breaks up, they lable it a triangle. hindsight trading. what a crock !

 

I think this is a fair assumption by you....but it does not mean that its right. One of the major reasons the professional traders dont say they use certain things such as TA is that their boss, their clients or they themselves dont believe in it. .....and so they dont become consistent in in it, or they dont admit it - a case of PYA (protect your ass) Many of them use a combination of things as others have stated, some use nothing but prices to derive decsions......my definition is broader than yours.

 

and I think you are correct about the subjectivity of it all....simple TA might not work on its own, but it does not make it a crock of s..t. Applying it as a rules based system, combining it and even developing your own data can work....just as an example for someone that you might be interested in (I like these guys)

Beach Horizon - Infrastructure and People - Managed Futures Commodity Trading Fund Management ---- note the history section.

 

plus what about Mr Tudor Jones - he may not have been exclusively TA but I think his history showed he placed a fair bit of emphasis on it.

 

just food for the mill.

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

plus what about Mr Tudor Jones - he may not have been exclusively TA but I think his history showed he placed a fair bit of emphasis on it.

 

...

 

 

 

Yes, and many of the other Wizards. But it might have also been the case that they all wanted to mislead us retail traders...

[TheDude 10]

TheDude, you're either a Fundamental trader, a TA trader, or a combination of both. MP is NOT Fundamental trading. It's simply another form of using technical data analysis (TA) to make trading decisions. So you're not a big fan of H&S...welcome to the club. It is subjective. One traders H&S pattern is another's Triple Top. Your ignorance of highly advanced technical analysis is extremely obvious.

 

Why is it that, when something doesn't work for someone, they feel they have to ridicule it and assume it is impossible to work for anyone else? TD, if you are making gobs of money trading by the phases of the moon, then what right do I have to say your system is BS? Whenever I meet a trader who is enjoying consistent success with some technique, I always try to learn more about it...not waste my time (and others) trying to ridicule it in forums. But that's just a fundamental difference between us, I guess.

 

One thing I noticed is that you use very weak examples to support your case...and your data is pulled out of thin air.

 

All CTA's are professionals? CTA's never use TA? What do CTA's have to do with anything? Anyone can study and become a CTA and never have evere taken a trade...even in sim. I know several of them and they only became CTA's to help them sell more books or trading courses. If you are holding up CTA's as examples of "Trading Professionals", then it only serves to point out bias, ignorance, or both.

 

Anyone who knows anything about floor traders knows that you cannot compare them to electronic traders. They come from two entirely different planets. Most floor traders I know are ex-floor traders. They are becomming extinct because their market knowledge and skills can't compete with computerized electronic trading. Many of them are actually computer illiterate. In my years of experience, floor traders are the most difficult to convert to electronic trading. They may be professionals in their world but they sure aren't in ours. The fact that a group of traders who barely know how to turn a computer on don't use Technical Analysis should be no surprise.

 

To say that ALL professional traders DO NOT use TA is absurd...but that's probably because your idea of a trading pro is a guy jumping up and down in a pit while wildly waving his arms.

 

Of course, all that guy has to do is go take a test and become a CTA and then his only problem is where to put all that money he's suddenly making in electronic trading.

 

 

boy! everyones getting a bit anxious on this one.

 

all ive said is pro's dont use ta. and they dont. they may use the odd chart here and there - who doesnt. it may even be part of the strategy. im just saying it's not 100% like retail traders. and theres the key point. the failure rate is MUCH higher in retail than professional environments. and they key difference is the amount of dependence on TA. that is a FACT that is as clear as the nose on your face.

 

and fyi, there are MANY different ways of looking at market data other than TA or fundamental approaches.

 

of course i dont think that its impossible to make money using just ta. i gave one example of someone who probably is. but they are so thin on the ground, its would seem logical TA is pretty hard disciple to master.

 

oh - and one reason i may seem 'short on hard examples' is that one thing i am short on is time. especially to a vendor, and/or to bunch of anonymous people. dont mean to offend anyone.

 

finally, maybe youre confusing cta with cfa? no, not everyone can become a successful cta.

[TheDude 10]

 

 

I think this is a fair assumption by you....but it does not mean that its right. One of the major reasons the professional traders dont say they use certain things such as TA is that their boss, their clients or they themselves dont believe in it. .....and so they dont become consistent in in it, or they dont admit it - a case of PYA (protect your ass) Many of them use a combination of things as others have stated, some use nothing but prices to derive decsions......my definition is broader than yours.

 

and I think you are correct about the subjectivity of it all....simple TA might not work on its own, but it does not make it a crock of s..t. Applying it as a rules based system, combining it and even developing your own data can work....just as an example for someone that you might be interested in (I like these guys)

Beach Horizon - Infrastructure and People - Managed Futures Commodity Trading Fund Management ---- note the history section.

 

plus what about Mr Tudor Jones - he may not have been exclusively TA but I think his history showed he placed a fair bit of emphasis on it.

 

just food for the mill.

 

 

i know beach horizon well. and they're a good example of what im talking about. they may use ta to a point, but the system isnt reliant on it 100%. no way.

 

you may also want to look at ahl and aspect. ahl especially. look at the research labs theyve opened up at oxford university. you going to tell me all that research into silly patterns and indicators/ta? of course not. most of it is correlations, regressions, sd's and the like on inter market basis.

 

im sure some one here will call that ta in some weak excuse. thats up to them.