Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Tams

FOMC Today

Recommended Posts

that's what they said..........

 

FOMC Minutes

 

Highlights

 

The minutes of the Fed's April 26-27 policy meeting gave a little more detail about the internal debate over when and how to begin unwinding currently very accommodative policy. Much has already been discussed by Chairman Bernanke at his first post-FOMC press conference and in speeches by some District Bank presidents. There was little dissention regarding the current status of policy although some indicated they saw little benefit from additional quantitative easing but so little reason to not finish QE2 since completion is close. Regarding inflation, most saw the recent effects of recent oil price hikes as transitory. Most within the FOMC see the fed funds rate as the preferred active tool for tightening but for now most see an end to reinvestment of pay down on mortgage-backed securities and agency debt as the first step in tightening. For the long-term, most are arguing for a "corridor" system of fed interest rates with interest on excess reserves at the bottom, the discount rate at the top, and the fed funds rate in the middle. For the long term, the FOMC wants to return the balance sheet to Treasuries only.

 

Staff economists helped to set the stage for the policy debate by giving a presentation on strategies for normalizing the stance and conduct of monetary policy over time as the economy strengthens. The staff differentiated between normalizing the stance of policy and the conduct of policy.

 

"Normalizing the stance of policy would entail the withdrawal of the current extraordinary degree of accommodation at the appropriate time, while normalizing the conduct of policy would involve draining the large volume of reserve balances in the banking system and shrinking the overall size of the balance sheet, as well as returning the SOMA [system Open Market Account] to its historical composition of essentially only Treasury securities."

 

For the first, the Fed will need to return to a neutral stance from the current accommodative stance. For the second, that means shrinking the balance sheet back to a level reflecting slow, long-term growth and using the fed funds rate as the primary policy tool.

 

But along the way, the Fed has to choose whether to unwind initially more with rate increases or balance sheet shrinkage or a combination of both.

 

"The first key issue was the extent to which the Committee would want to tighten policy, at the appropriate time, by increasing short-term interest rates, by decreasing its holdings of longer-term securities, or both. Because the two policies would restrain economic activity by tightening financial conditions, they could be combined in various ways to achieve similar outcomes. For example, in principle, the Committee could accomplish essentially the same degree of monetary tightening by selling assets sooner and faster but raising the target for the federal funds rate later and more slowly, or by selling assets later and more slowly but increasing the federal funds rate target sooner and faster."

 

The FOMC agreed on several principles to guide normalization of policy. First, the pace and sequencing of the policy steps would be driven by the Committee's monetary policy objectives for maximum employment and price stability. Second, in the intermediate term, the balance sheet would be would be reduced so that implementation of monetary policy would be through management of the fed funds rate instead of size or balance sheet composition. Third, the balance sheet would be returned to Treasuries only. And fourth, asset sales would be communicated to the public in advance.

 

As already noted during the chairman's press conference and in the earlier release of Fed forecasts, FOMC participants downgraded their forecast for GDP growth in 2011 while bumping up the 2011 inflation forecast. Nonetheless, members decided to indicate that the economic recovery was proceeding at a moderate pace and that overall conditions in the labor market were gradually improving.

 

Today's minutes primarily add depth to the debate over conduct of monetary policy over the next few years. While the Fed likely will raise interest rates not long into 2012 if not a little sooner, it will take years for the balance sheet to be returned to normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday Jun 21

FOMC Meeting Begins

 

 

Wednesday Jun 22

 

FOMC Meeting Announcement

12:30 PM ET

 

Chairman Press Conference

2:15 PM ET

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fed gloomier about the economy

 

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Federal Reserve has grown more pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy.

 

At the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, the central bank said that while the recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, growth is somewhat slower than expected. It also said the jobs market is "weaker than anticipated."

 

Federal Reserve gloomier on jobs, economic growth - Jun. 22, 2011

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you think this is a good day to trade or to stand down? I have often wrestled with this. I know a lot of my trader friends refuse to trade on FOMC day, or any Fed day for that matter. I'm curious to hear what other's think.

 

Trading on Fed and other major market news are great times to trade but only if the DOM tells you so, if not you can get cut pretty bad. Have a good one!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The FOMC announcement at 2:15 p.m. ET for the September 20-21 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. However, even though some FOMC members are leaning toward additional easing, it is hardly certain. Traders will be watching whether there is a vote for QE3 or the so-called "twist"-the extension of maturities of Treasuries that the Fed purchases. And we may see rate cutting action with the Fed's relatively new policy tool-interest paid on excess reserves.

 

There is no scheduled press conference by Chairman Bernanke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
and if it doesn't(even if it does), there'll be QE3 right?

 

TN,

 

Are you in the USA?

 

We are easily past QE3. Not sure which QE we are on.. The fed is the largest creditor of the USA but we are not printing money.

 

We are officially a Banana Republic country. Such is the case when debt : GDP > 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard most of the days when the FOMC release their report are an “up” day in the US stock market

 

Does anyone here have statistics which kind of a day is going to be the “Day After” FOMC report?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I heard most of the days when the FOMC release their report are an “up” day in the US stock market

 

Does anyone here have statistics which kind of a day is going to be the “Day After” FOMC report?

 

if life is so simple, we would all be millionaires years ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
if life is so simple, we would all be millionaires years ago.

 

They have statistics for day before, and day after, for every major holiday,

 

since they have also statistic for FOMC day one would assume they will have the same for the day after…. Just a thought

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.