FOMC Today

[Tams 20]

20100623

 

FOMC

Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

[AmCan1 10]

Do you think this is a good day to trade or to stand down? I have often wrestled with this. I know a lot of my trader friends refuse to trade on FOMC day, or any Fed day for that matter. I'm curious to hear what other's think.

[Tams 20]

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

[Tams 20]

Do you think this is a good day to trade or to stand down? I have often wrestled with this. I know a lot of my trader friends refuse to trade on FOMC day, or any Fed day for that matter. I'm curious to hear what other's think.

 

> I have often wrestled with this.

 

trading is not wrestling.

if you have to wrestle with this, then my advice is --- don't trade.

[TheDude 10]

It depends on the climate IMO.

 

For the past 6 months or more, FOMC and minutes have been non events because of the wide spread understanding of the economic condition. Rates aren't rising any time soon and the market knows and expects this. The minutes are where the detail lies and can have more impact than the actual announcement. The last minutes release however was a bit of a non event from memory however.

 

Historically however (speaking of ES) is that the FOMC release just gives volatility spikes, but rarely is value or it's perception changed. You just see stop running of the day's high/low before settling where it started. The minutes can however give rise to a change in value and the associated trend.

 

I think this afternoons minutes will be a non event. Because of this, I'd say thats a sure sign all hell will break lose and the market will sink to 0000.25!!!

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Aug 10, 2010

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

FOMC Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

 

Consensus

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0 to 0.25 %

 

Market Consensus Before Announcement

 

The FOMC announcement for the August 10 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Traders will be picking apart the statement for any wording hinting of additional quantitative easing and for changes in the Fed's view of the economy.

 

Definition

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the policy-making arm of the Federal Reserve. It determines short-term interest rates in the U.S. when it decides the overnight rate that banks pay each other for borrowing reserves when a bank has a shortfall in required reserves. This rate is the fed funds rate. The FOMC also determines whether the Fed should add or subtract liquidity in credit markets separately from that related to changes in the fed funds rate. The Fed announces its policy decision (typically whether to change the fed funds target rate) at the end of each FOMC meeting. This is the FOMC announcement. The announcement also includes brief comments on the FOMC's views on the economy and how many FOMC members voted for and how many voted against the policy decision.

 

2010 Release Schedule

Released On:

1/27

3/16

4/28

6/23

8/10

9/21

11/3

12/14

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Aug 31

 

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

[charto911 10]

market seems to have dropped after the fed minutes today by the look of the tape as of 2:05 compx -.599

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Sep 21

 

FOMC Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

[emg 12]

Tuesday Sep 21

 

FOMC Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

 

u are trying to sell something here

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Oct 12

 

 

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

[Tams 20]

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

 

FOMC Meeting Announcement

Released on 11/3/2010 2:15:00 PM

 

Federal Funds Rate - Target Level

Consensus 0 to 0.25 %

Actual 0 to 0.25 %

 

Highlights

 

The Fed decided to buy an insurance policy on keeping the recovery going. But the premium may be expensive. The Fed left rates unchanged but voted for buying an additional $600 billion in long-term Treasuries by the end of the second quarter of 2011 to expand its balance sheet.

 

[Tams 20]

FOMC Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

 

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Good reminder - thanks.

 

If you're daytrading don't forget it since it could catch you in a very bad way -- my rule is to always exit 5 minutes before, and not to trade it usually until 15 minutes after unless the reaction seems muted - then I might push that up to as early as 5 minutes after. If it's volatile I wait.

 

And is it me or does it seem like everything trades really funky the morning of the FOMC?

 

MMS

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Jan 4

 

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Should be an interesting week -- especially the jobs data Friday...

 

MMS

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Jan 25

FOMC Meeting Begins

 

Wednesday Jan 26

FOMC Meeting Announcement

2:15 PM ET

 

http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446386&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2011#top

 

[Tams 20]

Wednesday Feb 16

 

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

 

 

For Meeting Held on 1/26

[BeginnerEL 10]

inflation is popping everywhere. how long will the FED sit on their hands unless they're going stick thier head in the sand, and ignore the the problem

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Apr 5

 

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

[Mysticforex 13]

Good reminder - thanks.

 

If you're daytrading don't forget it since it could catch you in a very bad way -- my rule is to always exit 5 minutes before, and not to trade it usually until 15 minutes after unless the reaction seems muted - then I might push that up to as early as 5 minutes after. If it's volatile I wait.

 

And is it me or does it seem like everything trades really funky the morning of the FOMC?

[Tams 20]

FOMC Minutes

Highlights

The minutes of the Fed's March 15 policy meeting show moderate disagreement regarding quantitative easing but not from what has already been broadcast in recent public speeches. The bottom line is that the Fed is not likely to change QE2 but is starting to think about its exit strategy from a very loose monetary policy. Timing will depend on incoming data.

 

Again, there is some moderate disagreement on quantitative easing. A few FOMC participants believed policy might need to be tightened later this year with QE2 being cut short. A few others believed that "exceptional accommodation" might be needed beyond 2011. Some doubted the benefits of QE2 but believed it not appropriate to change the announced plan for QE2.

 

Overall, the FOMC sees the recovery as gaining traction. "Participants' judgment that the recovery was gaining traction reflected both the incoming economic indicators and information received from business contacts." But there are increased risks seen coming from higher commodity prices, turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, and the problems in Japan. Most see higher commodity prices as having a transitory effect and inflation expectations appear to be stable for now. But inflation expectations have taken on a bigger role in policy debate as implied in the minutes.

 

"However, a significant increase in longer-term inflation expectations could contribute to excessive wage and price inflation, which would be costly to eradicate. Accordingly, participants considered it important to pay close attention to the evolution not only of headline and core inflation but also of inflation expectations."

 

The Board's staff economists revised down their GDP forecast for 2011 but not by much.

 

"The pace of economic activity appeared to have been a little slower around the turn of the year than the staff had anticipated at the time of the January FOMC meeting, and the near-term forecast for growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down modestly. However, the outlook for economic activity over the medium term was broadly similar to the projection prepared for the January FOMC meeting. Changes to the conditioning assumptions underlying the staff projection were mostly small and offsetting: Crude oil prices had risen sharply and federal fiscal policy seemed likely to be marginally more restrictive than the staff had judged in January, but these negative factors were counterbalanced by higher household net worth and a slightly lower foreign exchange value of the dollar. As a result, as in the January forecast, real GDP was expected to rise at a moderate pace over 2011 and 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy, increasing credit availability, and greater household and business confidence. Reflecting the recent labor market data, the projection for the unemployment rate was lower throughout the forecast period than in the staff's January forecast, but the jobless rate was still expected to decline slowly and to remain elevated at the end of 2012."

 

"The staff revised up its projection for consumer price inflation in the near term, largely because of the recent increases in the prices of energy and food. However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further. As a result, the forecast for consumer price inflation over the medium run was little changed relative to that prepared for the January meeting."

 

Net, the minutes were mostly as expected and had little market impact.

 

Economic Calendar - Bloomberg

[Tams 20]

Tuesday Apr 26

FOMC Meeting Begins

 

Wednesday Apr 27

12:30 PM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement

[Tams 20]

Market Consensus Before Announcement

 

The FOMC announcement at 12:30 p.m. ET (moved up to make way for the chairman's press conference later in the afternoon) for the April 26-27 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Given divergent views on the need (or not) for further quantitative easing, the focus of the announcement likely will be any hint regarding any possible QE3 or more likely how the Fed's balance sheet will be unwound. That is, will the Fed take action to slow the natural unwinding from pay down on mortgage-backed securities and other debt?

 

 

The Fed closely monitors the core PCE price index to indicate whether or not policy is approximately correct, overly accommodative, or too restrictive. The PCE price index is preferred to the CPI because it is more closely aligned to the cost of living than the CPI (which measures a fixed basket of goods & services.) This chart covers monthly data and the fed funds target rate reflects the monthly average. As such, it will not correspond to the most recent fed funds rate target announced by the Fed.

 

 

Econoday Report: FOMC Meeting Announcement*April*27,*2011

[MightyMouse 12]

Does anyone have an idea of what internet news feed will air the press conference?