Signal Service?

[TEAMTRADER 10]

SIGNALS SERVICE

Does anyone PERSONALLY know of a ‘tradable’ day trader’s signals service that is ‘reasonably successful’?

By ‘reasonably successful’ I mean at least 70% of the trade signals create a profit.

By ‘tradable’ I mean that the signals are restricted to up to three or four FX instrument charts and are in the recognised European or US trading times.

It can be signals via a live trading room or via premium software.

My objective is that I’d like to trial with them my ‘filtration system’ set of indicators.

The target would be to improve their signal entry successes to 95% or better.

Thanks for any replies.

Regards,

TEAMTRADER

“Trade what you see and not what you hear or Hope.”

[cuttshot 11]

Are you locked in to the forex markets? Would you be intresting in the futures markets at all? If you would be I might have a lead for you.

 

Cuttshot

[TEAMTRADER 10]

Hi,

The indicators I have are MT4 based so FX is the prime market.

The indicators for futures would need to be programmed into whatever platform was in use but I could not help there except to offer the basis of the MT4 set up.

Regards

TEAMTRADER

[WorldTrader 10]

Team,

I know of a good one and they just had a webinar yesterday on price action. Here is one of their videos on you tube. They have forex rooms for all sessions. Might be interesting with your filtration system.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFn823P09uI&feature=youtube_gdata]YouTube - PriceactionPart1[/ame]

[TEAMTRADER 10]

Thanks, I'll have a look at it.

TEAMTRADER

[Tiobingo 10]

Teamtrader, do you consider a 70% win rate 'reasonably successful?' I personally believe that a win rate over 65% should be considered 'very successful." I think it is hard to maintain a win rate like that over time and anybody achieving that level of success is doing something extremely right. Are you suggesting that your indicator would have a 95% success rate? Please forgive me if I misunderstood your comment but you have piqued my interest and I must say, that I am respectfully skeptical but will keep an open mind.

 

Here's a question that I once was confronted with. It's the story of two trade systems. One made 9 winning trades at $222.22 each and had only one loser, but it was a $1000 loss. The system won 90% and made $1000 in profit. But what if you got two or three of those big $1000 losses in a row?

 

The other system had a big $2000 winner, but also 9 losing trades at $111.11 each. The system only won 10% of its trades but ended equally profitable with $1000. Isn't it wise to let your profits run and to cut your losses fast?

 

What system is better? What about a system in the middle, that won 5 $400 trades but lost 5 $200 trades? Same $1000 profit result with a 50% win rate. It would seem by your comment that if a 70% win rate is reasonably successful, then this 50% win rate must really suck, no?

 

Win rates are just one part of the puzzle. I remain respectfully skeptical. What good is a 95% win rate if 5% of the trades could wipe you out? Wins and losses come at a random clip, afterall and losses will cluster up. Guaranteed! I'm not suggesting your system does that, but I am merely trying to say that I have heard these claims many times and have yet to see one work. Please show me.

[TEAMTRADER 10]

I specifically mentioned 70% because it is less work for me to filter out the 30%.

If there is a management system in place then the losses are hypothetical - and everyone has a management system or should have.

Momentum is the key to all trades in my filtration system and as momentum creates divergence, then the addition key is to seek out convergence and this is how reversals are detected.

Also conflict between momentum oscillators is an important area.

I trust the grab is self explanatory.

I am fully retired and part of that word is 'tired' - and that just about sums me up at the moment!

Knowledge is a great thing but can only be passed on or learned.

Regards

TEAMTRADER

[tjnoon 10]

Teamtrader, that is very interesting. Do you have back test results with rules to show the 95% winning percentage?

[Tiobingo 10]

Teamtrader, thank you for the response and the chart. Please don't take my comments to be negative or argumentative. That is not my intention. I enjoy a good trade conversation and my questions and comments are in the spirit of 'furthering our cause' and for learning. I'm not retired but I can sure identify with tired! I live on the West Coast so getting up early to trade day after day, while going to bed most nights too late, well.. Let's just say I can identify with being tired. lol..

 

I can see the divergence you speak of. What I have learned with this sort of approach though is that it is one thing to identify diverging indicators after the fact, when you can easily see how the price action reacted (past tense). It's entirely a different matter to live on the right edge of the chart, in real life market action and then try to identify divergence and make accurate trade decisions based on what is currently forming -- or seemingly so, but not really. It requires a lot of guessing and discretion. "Is this divergence finished? Is it just beginning? When do I decide that it is valid and how then do I base my entry?" I imagine you probably do have rules to follow.

 

I am content with my 67% ongoing win rate and I suspect it's better than most traders can achieve over hundreds if not thousands of trades. It's based on price action and not lagging indicators. I do use indicators but not to base my trade decisions on. I use them to confirm my decision and to help calculate the size of my trades. And while I would always want to find ways to improve my results, I would have to remain respectably skeptical, but with an open mind, as I said. If you find a signal service that would try your idea, I would be interested in kicking the tires and taking it for a test drive. I am certainly willing and wanting to learn something new. I apologize if I got off subject as you were seeking to find a signal service. But you sparked an interesting train of thought and I wanted to respond in kind. Cheers..

[TEAMTRADER 10]

Thanks, if yours works, don't fix it. The worst thing traders do is to change strategies and therefore become one of the 90% who do not make a living from FX.

You will see that my indicators are chart specific but what you may not see is that they are linked together and with the addition of trap lines can forecast when a reversal is due and with this information it concentrates the mind for the direction of the next trade.

Multiple momentum is as rewarding as conflicting momentum so I trade what I fully understand and I urge others to trade what they fully understand.

I'm still looking for a service so perhaps there is a user somewhere that I can help.

Regards

TEAMTRADER