Price Action

[sanchez 10]

Holy cow!!! who woulda seen this coming???

[sanchez 10]

I won't be around today. Nice O/N range....we had an 11 pt swing, a 10 pt swing and the other was a 9 pt swing....avg=10 pts lol The low being yest POC

 

keep an eye on the 405 min...the 1102, 04.75, 09.25 above. The 91, 88.25, 83, 78 areas below

 

watch the individual profiles for each day....gaps and NPOC.s, IB's etc

Same old, same old

 

 

Good Trading

[sanchez 10]

interesting day yest. looks like we filled the gap and then continued to new hi's on the day

Pretty even vol dist between 1079 & 1088, with a small lva around 1084

Yest POC is 1082.25. We missed the NPOC at 1074.75 & 1058.25 so that is still in play

NPOC at 1108, 1118 above as well

 

news this AM and it's Fri. in the summer time. key in on the first 1 -1.5 hours unless range and vol indicate otherwise

 

Good Trading

[sanchez 10]

sorry for not being more up to date with my posts. hope to get back on track this week. I see the 1058.25 NPOC was taken out

 

Yest NPOC is 1068 with a 1064 close which might be a gap depending on where we open. Currently trading at 1055.5

 

As discussed int he chat room last week, the 1065-1055 area is all on lighter vol. It's like a big lva and price might look to explore and trade as per the 405 min(daily) chart. hva below 52.75, 50.25, 46. hva above60.5, 67, 74

 

lva below 55.5, 43.75, 41.5. lva above 68.75, 75.75

 

ATR 19.25

 

gaps 1090.25 and 1024 with NPOC at 1039.5

 

Good Trading

[sanchez 10]

ATR = 20. 135 min POC 91.75 area. Big LVA zone 96-1104 area on 135 min. the 405 show LVA at 02.25 and hva 94.5 so both TF have a certain amnt of confluence.

 

Fri in the summer....have fun

[sanchez 10]

interesting O/N PA going into the 10AM #. LVA 1117, HVA 1119.75 & 1123 & 1127.5

[biegea 10]

Hey SR, I like to look at the DOM or T/S (time & sales) I look to see if there is size and if that size is trading. Again, the s/r levels are the important thing as the tape can simply be a head fake. I am only interested in the tape @ areas of interest. I also look at the harmonics/waves.....how far have we traveled vs the avg wave hgt. etc.

Big vol into s/r is key for entries & low vol on bounces or pullbacks are equally important to help stay in a trade or re enter.

 

this week I might not be around too much but I have been posting charts in the chat room...tough to do both but I will try do do so even if it's after mkt hours

Hey sanchez, SRspider,

 

My approach to markets seems to be very similar to both of yours. I am particularly interested in refining my reading of what is happening on the micro-timeframes at key longer-term S/R. I am comfortable with various entry techniques, mostly focusing on 1-min price and volume, but my approach from there involves watching ongoing micro-PA closely to determine whether an exit for small gain/loss/BE is appropriate if price isn't behaving right or if it's worth sticking through. Two common scenarios I am looking to improve my micro-read on are as follows:

1. good 1-min sig against key S/R area fails and we get what looks like S/R failure. Question is what rules, guidelines, or principles can we look for if this apparent failure goes a point or two (or more against longer-term levels) to gauge whether it's just stops and essentially the end of the move before the previously-expected reversal ensues, or whther the break will stick and we continue down to the next level

2. good 1-min buy signal against key S works and we bounce say a few points. Now price pauses a bit and begins to pullback. The 1-min pullback amplifies and on its own it looks quite bearish, even though in bigger context it's just noise and no new lows are made yet, but volume is increasing, etc.

 

Many would say there is no edge here, you set your stop and roll the dice. I believe we can read micro-PA to gain edge in reducing stop to minimize the trades that don't play out as desired while staying in the ones where things continue to look good. These two specific scenarios is where I am now looking to find insights on what makes the micro-PA "look good" vs. not.

 

Thanks in advance for any thoughts you can share.

 

Regards,

biegea

[sanchez 10]

Hey Biegea,

There are a few, if not many, variable with each trader. how many contracts one trades, acct size and then the psychological impact that winning/losing trades have on a trader. I used to be a pure scalper in the equities mkts (SOES) in 1998-2003 and the transition has been difficult. When I switched to trading futures I started out with the Russell 2K and I felt it was more conducive to scalping. The ES is more liquid but also has more back filling and washout moves, imo.

Having said that, I feel that trading the ES is either a 1-2 tick profit on size or stepping back and looking at the forest and trying to see the bigger picture. This is what I have come to realize and it has helped my trading tremendously.

 

I don't roll the dice. If the mkt generated PA in an area I am interested in begins to change, I exit or I don't enter a trade. I use the 1 min chart all the time when it's time to look inside & see the bigger picture but if I manage the entire trade based on the 1 min then I usually have issues. When I take my entry, I'm either right or wrong. If the trade takes to long to develope or the auction is not behaving as I would have hoped it would, then I exit. I can always get back in if I realize I miss read the mkt.

 

Hope that helps, if not I can take it a step further

 

Good Trading

[biegea 10]

Thanks for the reply, Sanchez. First, I am an ES trader, and second, I hear you - and I am not talking about managing on the 1-min for the lifetime of the trade. I am, however, talking about using it and any other micro-timeframe tools to help me decide if it's "working" following an initial push in my direction or away from my direction. If the move is in my favor, I want to know if the following pullback looks "healthy" or like something with greater odds to fail, thereby turning the trade into a more likely loser. If the move is against me, I want to know if the move implies true failure of the trade or if it's just a stop-run at the level.

 

Basically, I want to read the micro-PA after a solid entry to gauge on an ongoing basis if the odds of success of the trade are getting better or worse than they appeared at time of entry. If they're getting worse, I want to be out for a small winner/loser rather that waiting for the full stop. I'm looking to improve my skills in this area in the two specific scenarios I described before.

 

Any additional thoughts are welcome and appreciated!

biegea

[sanchez 10]

where the hell is Beeks??

[erierambler 10]

sanchez, here is a graph for data from June 1st to Aug 20th. Notice when bars are in harmony and when they are not.

erie

 

Edited August 23, 2010 by erierambler
spelling

[sanchez 10]

sanchez, here is a graph for data from June 1st to Aug 20th. Notice when bars are in harmony and when they are not.

erie

 

 

Thanks Erie!!....u might need to explain it to me though:)

[sanchez 10]

NFP should be nice this week lol

[erierambler 10]

and price hit your "remember" this # at 1103

 

erie

[sanchez 10]

Hey, It's been a while since I have made any real posts. Taking some time off @ the end of summer with all the nonsense that comes with it is never a bad idea. Also a few family issues with my dads health has taken a bit of my attn and focus from the mkts. Hope to be posting on a more regular basis soon, as if anybody cares

Hope everyone was able to navigate the chop and low vol w/ success.

 

Good Trading

[sanchez 10]

nice run over the last few weeks.....100 points. End of the 3rd Quarter in a few more days eh. think htat might have something to do with it?? Did you say bonus? A-holes....all of em, lol

 

Hope everyone was able to take advantage of the PA.

 

Trying to settle out some personal stuff and hope to be back to trading real soon

 

Good Trading

[erierambler 10]

looking forward to your return, hope everything works out...

 

erie

[Mr_black 10]

Pa ...............................

[erierambler 10]

Pa ...............................

 

To me, 1147ish would be "potential" resistance, and there is confluence there as well.Until then i would just wait........

 

erie

[wapminnin 10]

in my opinion, one can view the longer times frames to see the "overall trend" of trend if you seek to trade the lower time frames. during price action analysis you wont get swiped away in countertrend trading. if so, trade for short term profits.

[WinbornTraders 10]

Hello Everyone

I'm New Here and hope can be useful.

[sanchez 10]

hey, guess life got in the way again. guess I missed the big recovery in the economy. With foreclosures soaring and unemployment virtually nonexistent, it's no wonder we shot up so hi.

 

This is exactly why I personally don't listen to economic news or more accurately, the A-Holes on TV. The same morons that missed the collapse are now going to tell us when the recovery is going to kick in?? ppppffffhhhhhhh rrrrrright

 

Anyway hope to get back to trading soon. Been enjoying some time with the folks the past few weeks as they are in town on a visit

 

Be around tomorrow,. 79-89 level should be interesting..............see how price reacts there. same with 55-65 area