Week 51

[Anna-Maria 10]

Subdued start to the trading week after the whippy post-payrolls activity on Friday. These are the occasions where our S&R % barriers usually play ball.

 

And price has bounced nicely off the R1 zone this morning with accompanying rejection of the 4hr mov avg line.

 

No interest shown in the UK PPI data, & price has sniffed our support zones where it's now resting before deciding whether to re-engage the downside towards the next Fib (38%) line from the recent move up off 8830.

 

One or two snippets of Data to hurdle this week on both sides of the pond, before the volumes begin to noticeably dry up due to book balancing/year end lethargy

 

[torero 10]

I'm seeing a double-bottom forming here and to be confirmed with a pullback. Going to watch for this long entry.

 

[torero 10]

Seeing my cue for long entry here.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yeah, decent trades taking an 'either or' stance today huh?

 

Is it a progressive lower high set-up off this 9850 top or a higher low shunt off the 38% Fib of the larger swing though?!

 

Decisions, decisions!!

[cowpip 10]

This has been a fun post-NFP for me to play this time around. I took +30 from the bounce off the resistance zone that Texxas pointed out a few posts earlier (not shown below), but had taken a small loss trying to get in on this a bit prematurely. Then a few hours later, took an entry near the rising trend-line, close to the S2 level, anticipating a double-bottom. Scaled out 2/3rds of my position at 9582. By then, I had moved my stop up to 9555 to lock in profits and have left the remainder running. All in all, not a bad day.

 

This is my first attempt at getting an image to post here. Let me know if it doesn't come through.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Your graph reads ok from my end Cary, & that's a very good entry indeed!

 

I drew the short straw y'day, engaging the short off the R1 instead, so only small change for me

 

You beat Buk to the plate though on that long of yours

 

He executed it thru the 1.95 (9517) on confirmation of the 2nd doji from the Fib/S1 bounce.

 

If it can hold on any re-test of c9540 (today's S1 zone) it should gather sufficient steam to have a crack at last weeks highs around 9817.

 

I guess we'll soon see how much stomach the Sterling Bulls have for a fight at todays important R1-2 zone (9610-25).

 

Good luck to you & torero with your trades

[cowpip 10]

You beat Buk to the plate though on that long of yours

 

He executed it thru the 1.95 (9517) on confirmation of the 2nd doji from the Fib/S1 bounce.

 

That was definitely the safer entry, waiting for that 2nd doji to confirm.

 

If it can hold on any re-test of c9540 (today's S1 zone) it should gather sufficient steam to have a crack at last weeks highs around 9817.

 

Good point. I've decided to reduce my stop back below the S2 level for today, so that this puppy has enough room to continue swinging higher - if that's their intent. I suspect tomorrow's post-FOMC will be key to the near-term direction of cable on the longer frames, although CPI tonight should be interesting to watch as well.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Good point. I've decided to reduce my stop back below the S2 level for today, so that this puppy has enough room to continue swinging higher - if that's their intent.

 

That's certainly how we prefer to use those levels when instigating or managing the swing trades Cary.

 

We've found they offer sufficient risk-reward to allow price to test the genuine flows.

 

If we're attempting to take a price within a rangebound environment, then those % levels merely afford us an entry/exit guide to work from in harmony with the price bar prints.

[cowpip 10]

So this morning's pull-back to near the Asian low provided me with an entry opportunity, which I took at 9590. It was looking a bit iffy for a while, but was kicked into profit thanks to the CPI news, which hit a record high of 2.7%. I banked partial profits at +40 and moved my stop to b/e on this entry in order to protect the entry against a possible whip back later this U.S. session. No point in giving back any profits. I may also raise the stop on my first entry to the indicated level, which I think should serve as support now... still mulling that over. Maybe it's a bit premature? I'd like to see price break and stick above 9650/60 first, which it hasn't yet done.

 

But at any rate, it's been (thus far) a reasonable add-in for me.

 

 

[cowpip 10]

That's certainly how we prefer to use those levels when instigating or managing the swing trades Cary.

 

We've found they offer sufficient risk-reward to allow price to test the genuine flows.

 

If we're attempting to take a price within a rangebound environment, then those % levels merely afford us an entry/exit guide to work from in harmony with the price bar prints.

 

That is very cool!

 

I'm falling in love with the methodology.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I may also raise the stop on my first entry to the indicated level, which I think should serve as support now... still mulling that over. Maybe it's a bit premature? I'd like to see price break and stick above 9650/60 first, which it hasn't yet done.

 

 

Nice trading on this leg!

 

Do what you feel comfortable with regards re-positioning stops & risk etc. These variables within the trading plan are unique & personal to each player & should be based around not only your trade objectives, but geared proportionally to sit within the capital-risk parameters of your trading account.

 

We'd all love to keep stops/profits flexible, but unfortunately account capital & sensible 'trade-off' between hard earned profit & leaving $$'s on the table need to be balanced.

 

Bear in mind Cary, December is book balancing month. Volumes will also be affected as differing players begin winding down? Some of these end of year moves can get awful extended, resulting in quite volatile snapbacks.

[cowpip 10]

Bear in mind Cary, December is book balancing month. Volumes will also be affected as differing players begin winding down? Some of these end of year moves can get awful extended, resulting in quite volatile snapbacks.

 

Thanks. I will definitely keep that in mind. I imagine liquidity is already a fair bit lower than it was last month, and it will probably dry up to next-to-nothing next week as everyone heads home for the holidays. I've been on the receiving end of some of those nasty whips in the past during low liquidity periods - they can indeed be quite nasty and frustrating. But we can't predict them, nor can we prevent them. All we can do is take our best precautions to protect ourselves when they occur.

 

It's been another very educational year for me! I look forward to the new year more than ever. Should be a blast.

 

Thanks again for everything. I think I'll be hitting the sack now and let things run on their own until I wake.

 

Best regards to everyone!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Mo matter what anyone say's, confidence is a traders main weapon!

 

There's no shame in adopting a defensive stance to your trading until your awareness & experience of your instrument improves, yeah?

 

I'd much rather bank $500 from a defensive standpoint than lose $1,000 via an aggressive & over confident viewpoint.

 

There's a time & place for aggression.

 

That methodology can be engaged when you're fully versed in spotting a repetative & consistant pattern or set-up occuring at one of your favorite levels etc.

 

Then you can hit it hard & ride it accordingly. Until then, snipe your profits & bank the bucks.

 

As the experience grows, so too will the confidence factor.

 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!

[torero 10]

Gonna exit here, before the news this afternoon hits. Double-bottom target hit and at 50% retracement from the low. We'll see after the news how things go.

 

[cowpip 10]

Just a quick followup to my previous trades. Ended up closing both trades (in a "defensive stance", as Texxas so aptly put it) yesterday at 9704 after the positive cable news failed to push beyond the 9720/30 resistance level and prior to the US news retail sales which ended up being dollar positive.

 

I expect trading conditions to become less supportive of longer swing trades (or at least, more hostile towards them), particularly after this week is up, so I'll likely just be looking for quicker all-in-all-out intraday trades through the rest of this week.

 

Good trading, everyone!

[torero 10]

My sentiments are the same about longer swing trades. Doesn't seem to look appetizing for these types of trades. I usually don't like to intraday trades for forex (don't know why), I may just sit out until major levels break, up or down.

[Anna-Maria 10]

My sentiments are the same about longer swing trades. Doesn't seem to look appetizing for these types of trades. I usually don't like to intraday trades for forex (don't know why), I may just sit out until major levels break, up or down.

 

I agree. The volumes are decreasing as the week unfolds, & will continue to dissipate after Friday.

 

We're simply focusing on our range barriers to trigger the odd intraday trade(s) where appropriate.

 

But to be honest, unless something screams out "hit it" we're not too concerned with getting involved from hereon in.

 

It's been a decent year, no point in trading for trading's sake.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

I expect trading conditions to become less supportive of longer swing trades (or at least, more hostile towards them), particularly after this week is up, so I'll likely just be looking for quicker all-in-all-out intraday trades through the rest of this week.

 

 

Don't forget or neglect the crosses guy's. Just because the Dollar denominated majors are mired in clack & see-saw range boundaries, doesn't mean there aren't opportunities out there to climb into swing moves!

 

Spend a few minutes to scan the cross instruments via the larger timeframes to spot potential opp's setting up off key Big Figures or Fib touches?

 

GBP is still a strong candidate due to the fundamental bias towards the interest rate/inflation combo. Same set-ups/signals can be initiated on any instrument as price cuts out a directional play.

 

4hr frame of the GBP/CHF setting up off a multi Fib play on the GBP Bull move.

 

 

60m snap of same level, highlighting the 'trend continuation' signals & pullback/stall zones.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Horrible, clacky price activity on Cable again this morning. The 240m continues to display tight lower top behaviour, with the 60m frame chopping around aimlessly.

 

Our resistance guides blanketed the price action near the top of the Tokyo range, leading into the London open, which kept us sidelined on any bullish potential. No defined pullback, so nothing to do on that side of things.

 

Neither have we triggered a short, although close inspection of the 5m frame around that negative 15m behaviour at the London open would have offered more appetite to short it rather than take the alternative play.

 

Typical lethargic end of week behaviour on this pair - not very enticing at all.

 

We'll see whether our support % lines will contain it until the impending NY data hits the tape later on. But I'm not getting involved in this clack today.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

A zoomed in snapshot of the 240min frame highlights this lacklustre behaviour around the upper Fib of the recent ascent.

 

Nothing setting up. Merely choppy, diluted activity with no real directional emphasis thus far.

 

If anything, taking a 'short' bias off this lower top activity is probably the less risky option (back towards the 38.2).

 

But there are better candidates out there to watch at the moment if the temptation exists to trade?

 

Definitely time to go do a bit of holiday shopping if Cable is your main focus instrument

 

[torero 10]

Tried to take a small intraday play this morning but got stopped out quickly. No follow-through. You think I should sit out until January?

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

No, I'm not suggesting to anyone that they should pack up their kit bag & trudge off home. Just be careful of the spikey, choppy behaviour which ensues when the volumes on these instruments begin to subside.

 

The Aug & Xmas holiday periods are historically low volume periods. You'll still continue to unearth opportunities within FX, but you might need to be extra choosy about where & how you engage.

 

Personally, I/we initiate very very few intraday positions over these periods - we've been mugged before inside choppy, windy ranges.

 

The risk increases & the conditions make it difficult to address our normal strat based triggers.

 

Therefore, we simply stand aside & manage those trades we're already engaged in. Once, or if they close out naturally, we turn our backs until the volumes drift back to something resembling normality.

 

Just be careful that's all.

[cowpip 10]

Yes, this was awful price action on cable today. Really very rotten. But no harm done. I too saw nothing of real interest (and what I did see was severely tempered by the completely unstackable price patterns). I spent my time roaming through the crosses instead (didn't take anything there either, although some of the pairs did grab my attention for a while).

 

Time to pack up for the weekend and try again next week after the fallout from the inflation news today.

 

Have a great weekend everyone!

[torero 10]

I think I'll turn my attention back to futures (still as bustling as ever) for now until the major S/Rs are reached. Until then, thanks tex and cowpip for your input and insight!

[Anna-Maria 10]

We'll see whether our support % lines will contain it until the impending NY data hits the tape later on. But I'm not getting involved in this clack today.

 

 

Looking back on the day's events, the support barriers did indeed shoulder price into the triple Stateside news releases.

 

And the overall bearish tone eventually pushed Cable back towards the 38% Fib zone, resting some 60pips north of that line into the close.

 

We remained flat this pair all day, & will likely snub any further activity on Cable now until the Xmas/New Year holiday period rolls over.

 

As next week grinds out, any sensible s&r guides become foggy due to the reduced volumes, therefore it's generally wise to leave it be.

 

I'll take a peek at it again as January winds up & see where we're at then.

 

240min frame highlighting the current near term bearish outlook.

 

 

15min snapshot of the s&r levels & it's journey thru the bottom intraday supports to current pattern zone.