Method's Trading Log

[method 10]

Time for an update!

 

Made several trades over the past week.

 

So first of all we have the FGBL (bund):

 

 

 

It looked like the market was going to retrace a bit because the price seemed higher than it should. So I placed a short, but I didn't really like the price action so I closed it out, and instead shorted the FESX.

 

Here's the mistake - my assumption that the two markets were inversely correlated led me to close out an otherwise profitable position. They both fell that night.

 

Here's my trades on the FESX.

 

 

The initial short on the 15th turned out kind of profitable, in that it gave 1:2.5 rr. I closed it at about 2820 then went long. I did this because it looked like the market was going to be locked in a tight bracket (the FESX seems to like being indecisive after rallies recently). I was correct in the trend, but I was stopped out at about 3 ticks above the low of the day.

 

The last trade - I thought a HOD had been made and shorted. Set a 10 tick stop and went to bed. However, the HOD was breached about half an hour later before descending. This meant I got stopped out at about 4 ticks below the HOD.

 

This may sound frustrating but I am more happy that I got the general intra day trend correct. I just need to calibrate my timing of trades.

 

Perhaps I need to set larger stop losses, or set lower stop losses and trade more frequently. Perhaps I should wait for a comeback in price before placing the trade.

 

Who knows. I'll think of something

[method 10]

Another trade on the FESX. For once it is a profitable long.

 

 

I have an open trade on the 6B currently.

[method 10]

Here's an update. I haven't been trading as much because of other things in life keeping me busy but I have been trading.

 

First off, here's a few on the 6B:

 

Good short followed by a failed reversal trade (in hindsight for the reversal trade I probably should have used tighter stops and tried small probe trades rather than risking 40+ ticks on one single trade). If its any consolation I was actually right in the reversal, but I did get stopped out so it resulted in a loss.

 

 

 

 

Next we have a series of unsuccessful trades, mainly with 10 ticks stop loss each.

I think there were 4 or 5 in this SS:

 

 

During this period I was probably quite stressed from other things in my life and I probably should have stopped after the first trade or two.

 

I haven't touched the 6B since.

 

 

Anyway, onto the FESX:

 

An unsuccessful short (notice how I would have got murdered had I not placed a tight stop):

 

 

A decent short followed by a good reversal trade (good as in good timing):

 

 

 

 

In case anyone is curious as to my performance I am happy to say I have turns things around somewhat since the last time I posted my P/L graph:

 

[method 10]

Ok so I haven't been recording as many trades as I am in a foreign country and will remain so for the next month. I don't have access to a desktop (OK, I am lazy) so I won't be posting as many screenies.

 

But I still have been trading, and into it more than ever.

 

One thing I have noticed is that my little foray into forex futures might be doing my bottom line more harm than good. I will focus on the FESX exclusively for a month or two and will see how it goes.

 

I continue to focus on limiting my losses and letting my winners run to an extent. Nowadays I exit positions on the same day because of TTT influence.

 

Happy trading

[method 10]

Been on a downswing since the 7th of jan.

 

I think I am overtrading. I am still limiting my losses to 10 ticks per trade but I am trading more and losing more.

 

I will try to be more patient and get in at more 'favourable' spots.

 

Still focusing on the FESX.

 

On another note, is it just me or has anyone else noticed the decrease in FESX volatility over the past year?

 

The currency futures just seem so much more exciting......

[method 10]

Been a while since I last posted but I have been trading, and losing, and learning!

 

My account equity is at an all time low, mainly due to blindly following a 'winning' strategy that involves letting losers run (and winners) without having backtested it sufficiently.

 

Nevertheless it was a good lesson on risk management (although how many times have I said this now?) and hopefully I can get back on track by trading the FESX.

 

I have lost a lot of money trading currency futures.

[method 10]

Ok so I have topped up my account and ready for a fresh beginning.

 

Lessons learnt from the last time round -

 

1. Limit losses.

 

2. Limit losses.

 

3. Wait for low risk entry points and get out at a fixed point. If you miss it, oh well there's always more opportunities around the corner!

 

Here is the first trade that I took:

[method 10]

Here are 2 more lessons:

 

- Don't carry overleveraged positions overnight

- Take profits as the market gives you them.

[steve46 12]

A couple of others have made similar comments....and so I will restrict mine to the bare minimum

 

First, I wonder if the gentleman really wants to be a winning trader....I am not getting that impression....it seems to me that the gentleman wants to trade...certainly, and likes the action, but is either a.) not knowledgeable as to what winning is about, or b) not willing to do what it takes (its just not that difficult)...Ultimately what is required is that the "losing trader" make a conscious decision to abandon everything that he as been doing, in order to find an approach that works.

 

I am thinking that my thread "an institutional look at the S&P futures" might hold the key...particularly the concepts of TBP (time-based pivots), supply/demand analysis and wholesale/retail value...the FESX, and the Eurostoxx for example are dominated by professionals who use similar approaches with excellent results...and I use them successfully trading the DAX, S&P futures, Bond, and Currencies (exchange traded not forex).

 

I certainly understand if you want to continue chasing your tail like a puppy, but if you decide to get serious, I would start by reviewing "An Institutional Look at the S&P Futures, and then perhaps consider looking at my comments about event trades...to see if it fits your personality.

 

Good Luck

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I think he is serious about being successful but this path to success is certainly not uncommon and I'd argue there is a lot more commitment here then I usually see. What it does outline is how hard it is to take the logical "pre-market" assumptions and do it under fire.

 

I feel like I have lots of experience and I still have those struggles at times. Today is an example where I broke my rule and traded beyond my normal allowable window. Do I know better? Sure. Have I tested enough to know that the odds go down after a certain time? Yes. Have I broken this before only to regret it? Yes. But, it's not easy to overcome the heat of the moment sometimes.

 

I think everyone's path is different - most never make it to the end but usually it's a long journey.

 

MMS

[steve46 12]

Yes I certainly understand your comment MMS

 

and perhaps 2 years losing is not that bad (from Method's opening post)....As I recall, what "motivated" me to make a real decision about trading was that I was getting close to the bottom of the gas tank (trading capital)...and didn't have many other options....I think its nice if a person has the luxury of taking their time to get it right....

 

Best of luck to everyone in the markets.