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lonew0lf

Negative/Reverse Divergence

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Following on the great work done by aaa on the divergence indicator; I wanted to know if someone could potentially help in creating an indicator which shows negative or reverse divergence.

 

The attached indicator is a slight tweak from aaa's, and shows regular divergence only. The attached images show the negative divergence.

 

 

// StochRSI Divergence TrendLine
// Author: MARKPLEX
// http://markplex.com/tutorial4.php
// version: 1.0

// Author: aaa
// version: 2.0
// Date: 20091129
// added: 
// divergence on top +
// Line.Color.Top + Line.Color.Bot + Line.Size + Plot.Sto in inputs

//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Line.Color.Top(yellow),
Line.Color.Bot(white),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Divergence in Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Divergence in Top" );

End;

condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

5aa7100ba58bd_audusdhiddendivergence.gif.bda952cf2c1cef24c8029a347981205e.gif

5aa7100baa5a4_esintradaydivergence.gif.e6076b6dba70ea993f64de0f9fd98dca.gif

hidden-bearish-divergence-blue.png.e923dda9cd66a08f700852c5adeaca77.png

hidden-bullish-divergence-blue.png.3daad3c8864fa0c08d6335b24e0e74a2.png

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Hi

 

Following on the great work done by aaa on the divergence indicator;

 

First of all thank you very much for the kind words,

 

but I've done nothing =

 

it is a 100% code from one of Martyn Whittaker' Xcellent 46 free tutorial

 

martyn.whittaker@markplex.com

 

***********

 

His site is a real gold mine 2 learn EL

 

http://markplex.com/tutorials.php

 

 

 
If 
[u]Condition1[/u] and 
[u]Condition2[/u] AND
L[oPivotBar2] [b][u]>=[/u][/b] L[oPivotBar1]  AND 
DToscK[oPivotBar2] [b][u]<[/u][/b] DToscK[oPivotBar1] 
then 
Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2],[b][u] L[oPivotBar2[/u][/b]], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], [u][b]L[oPivotBar1[/b][/u]]); 

 

 

Have U tried 2 "reverse" the code or anything else ?

 

When we post our personnal work ( even tho if it doesn't work ),

 

and if there is a solution,

 

they is always a kind coder 2 help us here.

 

rgds

Edited by aaa

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aaa - i initially tried the inverse but all that did was kick off errors. I finally got this one to work.

 

// StochRSI Divergence TrendLine
// Author: MARKPLEX
// http://markplex.com/tutorial4.php
// version: 1.0

// Author: aaa
// version: 2.0
// Date: 20091129
// added: 
// divergence on top +
// Line.Color.Top + Line.Color.Bot + Line.Size + Plot.Sto in inputs

//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Line.Color.Top(yellow),
Line.Color.Bot(white),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Hid Div Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Hid Div Top" );
End;

condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

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Hi LoneWolf

 

The solution was hidden in my suggestion ( HeHeHe !!)

and U've made good homework

 

*****************

 

I will not post any more Div indic than Sto + Rsi + MACD

 

In fact I try 2 trade with the trend, not against it.

 

Below is the Martyn Whittaker' logic of divergence

Everybody can easily apply it 2 any kind of indicators in 3 steps

 

1 Copy the entire Divergence code 2 your new div TrendLine indicator

2 Put the code of your preferate indicator in My.Indicator variable

3 Add personnal ideas 2 suit your way of Trading

 

rgds

 

aaa

 

***********************

 

inputs:

MyIndicator.Length(30),

 

variables:

My.Indicator(0),

 

My.Indicator=RSI(Close,MyIndicator.Length);

 

Condition1=Pivot(

My.Indicator,Length,LeftStrength,RightStrength,1,-1,

oPivotPrice1,oPivotBar1)<>-1 AND

 

(oPivotBar1-RightStrength)=0;

 

Condition2=Pivot(

My.Indicator,,Length,LeftStrength,RightStrength,2,-1,

oPivotPrice2,oPivotBar2)<>-1;

 

If

Condition1AND

Condition2AND

L[oPivotBar2]>=L[oPivotBar1]AND

My.Indicator,[oPivotBar2]> My.Indicator,[oPivotBar1]then // Change the sign < divergence > hidden divergence

 

etc..

 

**************

Edited by aaa

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I agree with you on staying with the trend. That was my reason why having the hidden divergence was important since it shows a continuation of the trend.

 

I seem to be running into a new problem now, it appears that the indicator is firing off alerts late. In the attached picture for example (15 min chart). The positive divergence is completed at 1am est, however the alert doesn't trigger until 1:45am.

 

I looked at the code but can't seem to figure out what's causing the delay. Open to suggestions.

 


//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Div.Color.Down(yellow),
Div.Color.Up(white),
HD.Color.Down (red),
HD.Color.Up (green),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, HD.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "HD Bottom" );
End;

	If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Div.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "DIV Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, HD.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "HD Top" );
End;

	If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Div.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "DIV Top" );

End;


condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, HD.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

	If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Div.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;


If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, HD.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

	If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Div.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

5aa7100cde519_Diverror.jpg.a59e3484a14dfcc6ce4cbdd8d42b3eab.jpg

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It is "normal"

 

Unfortunately pivot is not a RT function

 

Suggestion

 

RightStrength(2),

 

try 2 put 2 and U'll have 2 wait 2 bars instead of 3

 

**************************

 

The PPivot function returns the value of a pivot point and the number of bars ago the pivot occurred.

 

RightStrength

 

Numeric

 

Sets the required number of bars on the right side of the pivot bar.

 

*************************************

 

aaa

 

*************************

 

PS I'm wondering how 2 trade if we have 2 wait 3 bars (45 mns delay in your resolution) 2 have a signal ?!

 

Same problem with Carter scalper

 

After Observing during a long time a market, we can visualy anticipate a divergence with prior signs

 

IMO it's interesting 2 put an order at The anticipated level at the opposite of the trend (A kangourou tail where traders changing position)

and after waiting 4 a div or any kind of other confirmation

or exit with a quick profit

 

If it works, it's like a lift rocket !

 

But it is risky Bcoz we can get killed many times B4 it works

 

And then

 

A traders enters after, when the divergence signal is confirmed

 

B There is a DT/DB and it was an 2 early entry

 

C Or the trend keep going and the stop is reached

 

Not easy

 

At the end it's a matter of observation and intuitive quick decision + strong stomach

 

********************************

 

On your graph we can C

 

a kangourou trail ( in fact 1 + 1 the second one killed the first one)

 

a lift rocket

 

DB with certainly a divergence

 

and then the trend changes at the broken line where there was certainly a lot of stop buy orders above

 

So what should we do after 1:00 AM ?

 

Take profit ?

 

Trust in the hidden div and hold our position ?

Edited by aaa

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I've been using the divergence as the first trigger followed by a trend change (ttm trend) as confirmation. I finally noticed on the higher time frames (hourly, daily) that the trigger was way to slow.

 

I use the 15min, 1hr, etc as a signal for the direction I want to trade in and use a 3 min chart for entry.

 

I'll try changing the right strength to 2, why not use 1?

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I'll try changing the right strength to 2, why not use 1?

 

Put 3 charts on the same screen

 

Put right strength to 1

 

Put right strength to 2

 

Put right strength to 3

 

in each screen

 

and choose the one which suits U best

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I was being fictitious on the rightstrenth of 1.

 

Is it possible to have the indicator plot the divergence line, even though you have to wait the 3 bars for confirmation.

 

For example, TTM Trend for example will paint the current bar the anticipated colour before the bar closes. Would that be possible for this indicator where it plots the potential divergence as its happening rather than after the fact?

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What is the Tradestation equivalent for TL_New ( I assume this is an array or variable for the new "reverse divergent" trendline to be plotted next... but is undefined and therefore unrecognized in TS.

 

snowbird

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What is the Tradestation equivalent for TL_New ( I assume this is an array or variable for the new "reverse divergent" trendline to be plotted next... but is undefined and therefore unrecognized in TS.

 

snowbird

 

press the [F1] key and see...

 

TL_NEW is available in recent releases of TradeStation, but not in the older version (eg. T2000).

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Would that be possible for this indicator where it plots the potential divergence as its happening rather than after the fact?

 

With pivot function, I'm afraid that not less than 1 bar on the right side of the pivot bar...

 

The Pivot function returns the value of a pivot point and the number of bars ago the pivot occurred.

 

RightStrength = Sets the required number of bars on the right side of the pivot bar.

 

********************************

 

But keep "optimistic", as TAMS wrote ;)

 

anything is POSSIBLE

 

if you can visualize it, quantify it, articulate it, you can code it.

Edited by aaa

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    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
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