Intensity, Intelligent Agents, Synergy & 2 Great Hours Today

[UrmaBlume 10]

At 1041 PST Today 05/26 on a failure to make a new high, intense commercial selling formed a spike that formed a local extreme that would see the market fall over 20 points to new session lows. That spike is shown in the first chart below.

 

Following the graph of the sell spike are 3 shots of the HUD taken during the next 2 hours of decline that show recommended TradePoints in 7 intra session time frames.

 

The chart below the HUD shots is of a smaller time frame and shows how our intelligent agents use inputs from measure of intensity and balance of trade to provide real time trade recommendations.

 

The last graph shows the buy spike in commercial intensity than ended our short and gave us a short term long that was good for almost 8 points and we closed out for the day.

 

These graphs show the power of the synergy that can come from using inputs from old-school technical analysis into state of the art intelligent agents and networks of agents.

 

This first graph shows the sell spike that started it all:

 

 

 

These three shots of the HUD reflect market conditions and show specific trade recommendations on the way down

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This graph shows how agents operating in the shorter time frames parse legs in both directions

 

 

These 2 graphs show the buy spike that ended our short and gave us one last trade on the long side to end the day

 

 

 

Edited May 26, 2010 by UrmaBlume

[boomerangas 10]

As i said in earlier posts in my opinion these charts provide no value for the community because you are showing just a trends. I'm not pushing you to provide anything, nor i'm saying that it is a junk, just trying to dispute. I can show you a chart with a simple EMA's where are red paintbars and it is price below EMA and green - above EMA. I'd trade it tick by tick as your agents show. Or WCCI indicator, or any trend-following indi. All they screamed SELL. The main value comes when one/intelligent agent could avoid channel and to detect trend as early as it begun. I've programmed nearly 40 diffirent systems in my life and i could say that every system sucks if it's not detecting and avoiding chop and are not self-adjusting to x period volatility. So i'm also not so sure that your stuff is so great when there is no trend. Your problem is that you almost everywhere showing just a trends and what happened before this trend and no screenshots how did agents worked ( and intensity too ) when price was in channel all the day and every auto system sucked a lot. I'd say if the trader/system can't detect and to avoid chop it has no value, just mine opinion. If we could see how it trades chop, well i will say it's cool. If you'll say that you trade it, and this is not auto system well it's pure discretional trading. And good discretional trader doesn't need all this quant stuff. Look at the floor traders, they doesn't need any quant indicators and neuro advisors. Currently it's just self-ego fullfilling screenshots, because as you said there are no real quants at TL, and if there are some, all of them are working for you. Let's discuss chop avoiding/volatility adjusting techniques and not pure trend following stuff.

[brownsfan019 17]

Pat loves to provide after-the-fact charts on trending moves.

 

Since this was an obvious trade for you Pat and to show doubters out there, you should include your blotter as well showing actual executions and how you profited from this in real-time for once.

 

Otherwise, just another trending move that as the above poster said you don't need any fancy indicators to catch a trending move. A simple EMA will do the trick.

[TMBTC 10]

For shame. Regardless of the "reason," it's highly unethical to post private e-mail's and PM's in the public forum without permission. I trust the admins will delete the post as soon as it's discovered.

[UrmaBlume 10]

For shame. Regardless of the "reason," it's highly unethical to post private e-mail's and PM's in the public forum without permission. I trust the admins will delete the post as soon as it's discovered.

 

I agree but given the the situation where there is a huge spread between what they tell me and what they post in public, I think the public's right to know the truth trumps the duplicitous posters' protection. I certainly don't mind if they post my replies.

[boomerangas 10]

Hey, Pat, i'm ethical person and i will not do same things. Just for a future - take it easy, you have very strong self-defending instinct. It seems that you've had some problems in your childhood or at school with another kids. Yes, i've reproduced your indicator and i've reproduced it to see if it have some value. I don't see anything wrong in these emails because i've just asked some charts from you to compare my work with yours. And now after the testings i see that it doesn't provide any edge. I just trying to discuss this thing and you are taking this as an attack to your person. You know, i'm talking the truth and here is a reason why you are so angry. The truth are attacking your EGO and worthless systems. Please, don't spam anymore, the person who have developed/will develop these indicators will see no value here and the person, who can't develop it wouldn't study nothing new from your worthless screenshots.

 

I agree but given the the situation where there is a huge spread between what they tell me and what they post in public, I think the public's right to know the truth trumps the duplicitous posters' protection. I certainly don't mind if they post my replies.

Edited May 27, 2010 by boomerangas

[UrmaBlume 10]

Agreed TMBTC.

 

Disgusting behavior. I guess that's what we'd expect from someone who starts up thread after thread to spam the forum.

 

 

 

Spam is when you are selling something, right? You will notice I turned down these offers to buy as well as more than 100 others and have never sold or leased the technolgoies discussed in these threads to anyone.

 

cheers

[UrmaBlume 10]

Hey, Pat, i'm ethical person and i will not do same things. Just for a future - take it easy, you have very strong self-defending instinct. It seems that you've had some problems in your childhood or at school with another kids. Yes, i've reproduced your indicator and i've reproduced it to see if it have some value. I don't see anything wrong in these emails because i've just asked some charts from you to compare my work with yours. And now after the testings i see that it doesn't provide any edge. I just trying to discuss this thing and you are taking this as an attack to your person. You know, i'm talking the truth and here is a reason why you are so angry. The truth are attacking your EGO and worthless systems. Please, don't spam anymore, the person who have developed/will develop this indicators will see no value here and the person, who can't develop it wouldn't study nothing new from your worthless screenshots.

 

You might notice that I have been publicly thanked 403 times for my posts. I receive almost daily emails and pms thanking me and congratulating my on the same work you suddenly find worthless after you pestered me to buy it and show you how to build your own.

 

Some get a lot from my posts, some get a little bit and some don't get it at all.

 

BTW from what you showed me of your work, it in no way resembles the work we are doing. But you already know that because I told you that almost a month ago.

 

 

UrmaBlume

Edited May 27, 2010 by UrmaBlume

[boomerangas 10]

self-defend one more time. Man, nobody attacks you it's just mine subjective opinion.

 

QUOTE=UrmaBlume;97322]You might notice that I have been publicly thanked 403 times for my posts. I receive almost daily emails and pms thanking me and congratulating my on the same work you find worthless.

 

Some get a lot from my posts, some get a little bit and some don't get it at all.

 

BTW from what you showed me of your work, it in no way resembles the work we are doing in any form. But you already know that because I told you that almost a month ago.

 

 

UrmaBlume

[TMBTC 10]

Live and let live, everyone!

[zdo 20]

UB, I agree with TMBTC... posting PM's without their agreements is south of slimeball.

Also, really you could have spent about the same amount of energy as with the posting in privately discussing and comparing concepts with Boomerangas about his questions without giving away an 'edge'.

 

You come on here like you're going to contribute, someone like a Boomerangas asks some specifics, you backhand him, then have the nerve to get all self righteous... small wonder more and more are feeling your posts are at least a waste of time... if not worse...

 

I do 'understand' proprietary. My understanding, gained from experience, is that most public discussions of 'edges' are a waste of time. Many private ones are too. But...

 

Here's an actionable + for your charts - please recruit elsewhere... thx

[MadMarketScientist 11]

It should go without saying, but no posting private messages, PM's etc... I have deleted the posts mentioning it.

 

Whether the argument/debate on the value of the above is worthwhile I can leave you all to discuss that -- we're all adults right? I am assuming you do not want me moderating everything just because it gets a little controversial. No fun in that.

 

However, please stick to the topic at hand rather than personal. Posters do have the right to question a post, and even say it's wrong. They are not stalkers and this isn't a forum where we all need to agree with every post and if we do, get talked down to. At the same time, make the argument constructive -- disagree, say why and let's not challenge each other personally. If you think it's crap, you're entitled - just say why constructively and if you love it, give it a "Thanks"

 

Thanks for the understanding.

[TheDude 10]

I'm firmly in the 'don't get it' camp. There is nothing at all in those charts that a simple volume plot wouldn't have shown to some extent or the other. However, from the posts I have read:

 

- The whole thing wreaks of unnecessary complication. All those flashing lights, pie charts etc are for the ego to appear clever. Just my opinion of course If I want to know if price is going up or down, I simply look at the numbers - they do a pretty good job for me. e.g 93 is higher than 89, so the price must have gone up 4. Not hard is it?

- There seems to be some claim in the ability to detect who is responsible for this activity. Any such attempt is purely opinion as I have shown in other threads of Uber Blame's

- There have been somewhat arrogant posts dismissing VSA, TA, MP and other methods, yet it would seem that there are in fact great parallels in what and how things are being explained. I'd hate to see Uber Blames face if any serious quant saw his work. Oooh how they would scoff!

 

 

I find the whole scenario to be simply an exercise in inflating ego and attention seeking.

 

Uber Blame - Thanks for the PM offering me a job in your secret hedge fund/prop shop hybrid, but no thanks. You have a tea boy, and an excellent job he does too! I suggest you keep him.

[zdo 20]

...

Otherwise, just another trending move that as the above poster said you don't need any fancy indicators to catch a trending move. A simple EMA will do the trick.

 

Here’s BF point from way back early in the thread…

 

14 trades – all winners.

Not the slightest consideration (mental or coding) of ‘commercials’

or even volume (nope -bottom indicator ain’t volume…)

no Heads Up Display

no cross time frame, etc Intelligent Agents – except the ones inside my head and they aren’t that bright

no intensity readings…

not rocket science… if I can do it, many of the traders who are a lot smarter than me on here can too…

 

btw normally style on price chart is not +'s ... temporarily changed it for comparison purposes...

[boomerangas 10]

I'd say in addition that if one really worked in this industry for a long time as a dealer/broker/market maker/rocket scientist you should be aware that any serious trader, which trades 100+ ES lots per trade don't use ANY indicators. I never saw such a guy at the "institutionals" desks and Urma, tell me whatever you want.

 

p.s. it seems that Urma is having a bad trading day today ( you can't trade profitable if you are in the state of imbalance of nervous cells inventory )

 

Here’s BF point from way back early in the thread…

 

14 trades – all winners.

Not the slightest consideration (mental or coding) of ‘commercials’

or even volume (nope -bottom indicator ain’t volume…)

no Heads Up Display

no cross time frame, etc Intelligent Agents – except the ones inside my head and they aren’t that bright

no intensity readings…

not rocket science… if I can do it, many of the traders who are a lot smarter than me on here can too…

 

btw normally style on price chart is not +'s ... temporarily changed it for comparison purposes...

Edited May 27, 2010 by boomerangas

[TheDude 10]

I'd say in addition that if one really worked in this industry for a long time as a dealer/broker/market maker/rocket scientist you should be aware that any serious trader, which trades 100+ ES lots per trade don't use ANY indicators. I never saw such a guy at the "institutionals" desks and Urma, tell me whatever you want.

 

 

 

Correct.

 

I did once see some FX traders at Fuji (now Mizuho) using Bollinger Bands, but thats it. (I've never seen a real quant use Tradestation either....)

[zdo 20]

I'd say in addition that if one really worked in this industry for a long time as a dealer/broker/market maker/rocket scientist you should be aware that any serious trader, which trades 100+ ES lots per trade don't use ANY indicators.

 

Exactly. These days I’m trading far more currencies than indexes (much more bang for the buck) and I was sorta thinking the same thing - I doubt many on the big desks are poring over charts with 66 'intelligent agents' cranking away on the screen… no doubt a percentage of them are, but not many…

[macdfx 10]

I wonder if "professional traders" use Market Profile too.

[boomerangas 10]

I'd say yes, it depends from trader and market traded ( locals, market makers, big sharks doesn't use it ) But mid-sized desks are using this because it provides some vision of real sup/res and the real value of the instrument.

 

[HIGHLIGHT RED][/HIGHLIGHT RED]

I wonder if "professional traders" use Market Profile too.

[TheDude 10]

Serious question -

 

Have these intelligent agents ever generated losing trades?

 

I'll fess up and admit I have losing trades sometimes, I'm sure others do as well. But what about the intelligent agents?????

 

It would be interesting to see some expectancy or risk-Reward stats along with win rate.

 

How intelligent are they?

Edited May 27, 2010 by TheDude

[Simple 10]

My earlier post got deleted because I mistakenly quoted Pat's scurrilous post including other's private messages. Thanks for that MMW and for responding to mine and thousands of other complaints.

 

It seems that this thread represents how people see UrmaBlume and his repeat posts/thread starts of the same thing. Each time it wins. Each time its a miracle of Pat's genius.

 

Each time hundreds of people pm him to tell him how wonderful and generous he is. Each time hundreds pm to ask for jobs. We all go Wow!

 

What kind of fantasy do you need to live in to do this?

[MightyMouse 12]

Hey Guys! Look at the magic indicator that I have.

I want you to wish that you had it.

I want you to think that my magic indicator is what you need to be a successful trader.

It boosts my ego when people try to figure out what I am doing.

I want you to wish you were like me.

I don't realize how utterly flawed my reasoning is.

I don't reaalize that some of you know how flawed my reasoning is.

I dare not show you how poorly the magic indicator performs on real time data

I could have made a lot of money in the past with my magic indicator

I have not learned how to trade yet, but somehow I am compelled to make you think that I am a better trader than you.

My ego is very important to me.

Poker players from a particular country make great traders.

 

Almost poetic.

[Tams 20]

You have sour grape written all over your forehead...

His posts are no more obscure than dbphoenix talking about his ebook,

(or many cryptic posts around the internet),

the only difference is -- your desire for urma's so called "secret" is

greater than your wish for db's book.

as in any situation, not just on an anonymous internet forum, it would take less energy to walk away from a discussion you cannot win.

Edited May 29, 2010 by Tams

[UrmaBlume 10]

You have sour grape written all over your forehead...

His posts are no more obscure than dbphoenix talking about his ebook,

(or many cryptic posts around the internet),

the only difference is -- your desire for urma's so called "secret" is

greater than your wish for db's book.

as in any situation, not just on an anonymous internet forum, it would take less energy to walk away from a discussion you cannot win.

 

Thanks Tams.

 

How completely right on and how very well said.

 

So very similar in tone, content and intent is that post to others of its ilk.

 

cheers

 

UB

[Guest Muir]

I'll throw my 2cents.

 

I have bought and read DBs book and the free download of the Wyckoff's couse ("The Wyckoff method of tape reading.")

 

Recently I finished Mamis' "When to Sell" "How to buy" and "The nature of risk."

 

From the above, you can tell what I like, how I think and how I strive to trade.

 

_____

 

A while back ago, I bought a highly recommended and expensive TA book.

 

I am absolutely sure, many will lose money attempting find the imaginary patterns described.

 

So what?

Did I do a review on it?

No.

Rather, the thought that this passed off as insights and cutting edge, made me relieved.

Do I have a moral obligation to tell others what I think of this book?

No, I do not.

If someone at TL asked me about the book, I'd probably would tell them what I thought, but even then, I may not, it depends on the person asking.

 

__

 

I have no opinion on what Urma is presenting, maybe it only helps him.

I have heard it say of other traders that "he is a great trader, inspite of the lousy system that he is using."

Or maybe, Urma is thinking of marketing this in the future.

So what?

The person being marketed to is still responsible for his/her perception of what is being presented.

 

___

 

my 2 pennies.

 

(p.s. nice place this site)