Euro Futures

[tjnoon 10]

I thought I would start this out by posting up some results I've been getting trading Euro Currency Futures (EC). Everyone is trading EURUSD forex which is great. But so many overlook the fact that you can trade Euro/USD Futures contracts and get great results. I've got a UTA spreadsheet that I started backtesting the EC with. I began my backtest on Jan 25th with a 233 tick chart. I backtested a very tight and concise ruleset.

 

1. Start time is 8:30 cst (exchange time)
   
2. I tested a two position strategy. The 1st position gets out at a fixed target and the 2nd position uses a trailing stop.
   
3. I'm using the HVMM 2010 trade strategy
   
4. If a trade sets up, while my trailing position is still live, I will take the 'reentry' with the fixed position only.
   
5. Quitting strategy was 2 fixed target winners and a positive result or, quit by 11 am cst. The strategy is to take what the market will give while quitting positive on most sessions. Trailing stop considered a bonus trade and didn't count towards quitting goals. The only caveat was that one of the trades had to have made more than just 1 tick to qualify for my stopping goal.
   

 

I began posting my live trades in April. Here are the results after 351 trade entries.

Remember, each position is entered as a separate trade, so if you put on two positions as described, you enter each one as a unique trade. So 351 trades is closer to 160 or so actual trades.

 

• Wins: 239; Losses: 112; 1 BE
  
• 68% win rate
  
• Profit Factor: 1.82
  
• Expectation .26
  
• Total Net Points: + 988 @ $12.5 per point
  
• Pre Cost Profit: $12,350
  

 

You can see by the diagram below that I started with some losses. In fact, January was relatively flat. But by sticking to it, the tradeplan finally took off and put together a great rally for about 2 months. Then a one step back occurred in April. Finally, you can see the two steps forward kicking in as the winners started to come in again. This is what should expect with a solid trade strategy that is winning about 2/3rds of its trades. One step back, two steps forward. Remember, wins and losses come at a random distribution. We can't control that. But, by backtesting and then posting our real trades into the UTA, we can determine a very real EDGE in the market. So long as we stick to the plan, the odds will work out in our favor and we'll get a natural action move to the upside with our equity curve, and then a reaction that flattens out or draws down some, and then a new action move to the upside again. This is the beginnings of your classic stairstepping equity curve, up and to the right. UTA and the vision it has given me, has instilled the confidence in me to show up tomorrow, and take my trades according to this plan.

Edited May 11, 2010 by tjnoon

[tjnoon 10]

We've been trading this dynamic market in our live futures traderoom now for several months using the HVMM strategy. It's proven to be a highly effective and dependable market to trade with lots of action. In this video, we'll take a look at last week's +139 point net result. At $12.50 per point, that's over $1700 on very few trades. Moreover, we'll look at some huge trades that took place with our trailing stop strategy. Unfortunately for us, it happened after we were already finished with our session. The EC has been so active that for those who have 'more trade in them' than our typical and highly controlled 'power of quitting' approach, these set-ups might inspire you to look deeper into the session. And, with our powerful trade analysis tool, the UTA, you could do some specific time of day studies to maybe pinpoint some windows of time when these large moves have a higher likelihood of transpiring. The video also will look at what results would look like by incorporating a very simple fixed fractional money management technique, using a UTA tool.

 

Check it out here

[DaKine 10]

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[Tiobingo 10]

Hey TJ,

 

I was in your trade room today. I just discovered your room and thought I'd take you up on yur free service. It was great, thanks.. I learned a lot already and can see how important it is to be disciplined. You mentioned UTA a couple times and then I found your furom here on TL. I'm new to this actually so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but what exactly is UTA? You mentioned it but didn't show it in your chat room. By the way, I know you warned against taking live trades without some practice and learning how you call trades, but I decided to roll the dice and go with your calls. Excellent!! You won 4 out of 5 currency future trades and they were very easy to follow. Also, the other traders in the room were very nice and helpful. You've got a great thing going and I hope you do it for a long time to come. Thanks again. I will most definitely be subscribing after my free two weeks.

[tjnoon 10]

Glad you enjoyed it Tio.. Today was a bit tougher though, no? It's not always as easy as yesterday. I can't seem to be able to open up UTA while in my traderoom. There's a bug in the system so I can't show it live. Bummer.. But if you have any specific questions about it, let me know. I'll do my best to answer them here for you.

[tjnoon 10]

The EC has been struggling a bit with my strategy these past couple weeks. Most of the action has been occurring in the premarket and overseas session, so by the time I wake up and begin trading the US session, the EC has begun to chop around. Still though, I had a photo finish today and actually won 3 of my last 4 trades this week, with the 4th breaking even with a 1 tick gain. Those last few trades had me finishing mildly positive on the week with +12 points. Not great but it could have been worse. I was down -49 points last week but up +184 for May.

 

The UTA keeps me steady with the EC though. Currently, after 448 trades, I am sitting with a 66% win rate, which to me, is the sweet spot anyway. Two steps forward, one step back works for me. My equity curve also keeps me very encouraged as it shows that I am sitting just below my equity highs. When I scroll down my win/loss column in my UTA spreadsheet, I can see a few occassions like these past two weeks, where the EC struggled. I also can see how hot it would get in contrast. The hot times way outperform the oppositve affect from the struggling times. The EC is streaky and you just have to be able to deal with the ups and downs of this market. The system I am using is holding solid in the 2/3 win vs 1/3 loss range and I'm comfortable with that. As a result, since Feb 1st (remember the 1st 6 weeks were backtest trades) this methodology has gained +958 points on very limited trading.

 

I am excited about this coming week and know, based on history and experience that the best trades come after the worst. Sitting just below my equity highs, it is plain to me that I will be breaking out to new profit levels very, very soon. Perhaps this coming week.

[AmCan1 10]

Hey TJ, I'm currious how the EC has been holding up since your last post. Seems to have been pretty choppy during the US session lately.

[tjnoon 10]

Like the BP, the EC has also been holding steady with a 66.25% win rate. It's also sitting just below its equity highs and should breakout to new profit levels any time. Here's the recent equity curve, a la UTA.

[tjnoon 10]

By the way AmCan1, what are you trading? I see you agree with the importance of manually backtesting. What has been working for you lately?