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By Stocks4life · Posted
DUOL Duolingo stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?DUOL -
By Stocks4life · Posted
CVNA Carvana stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA -
By Stocks4life · Posted
RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals stock, strong day, watch for a local breakout above 2.06 at https://stockconsultant.com/?RVPH -
By Stocks4life · Posted
TMQ Trilogy Metals stock, great day off the 1.23 support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?TMQ -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 4th February 2025. The British Pound Remains Resilient Amid USD Strength! This week, the Great British Pound is one of the best-performing currencies against the US Dollar. The US Dollar saw strong gains during Monday’s Asian session but was unable to maintain momentum due to Trump pausing tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Why is the GBP performing better than the Euro and other currencies? Why Is The British Pound Holding Strong Against The Dollar? The British Pound is strengthening due to President Trump's favourable stance toward the UK. Economists advise the UK is still at risk of tariffs in the next 4-years, but are not likely to be imminent. President Trump has announced tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been postponed but stated Tariffs on the EU are almost certain. Therefore, the GBP has benefited from being left out of President Trump’s blacklist for now. Therefore, the GBP’s bearish price movement is weaker than that seen amongst other currency pairs. The GBP index this week is trading 0.22% lower but is still performing better than other currencies. The worst-performing currency of the past week is the Euro and the JPY is the best-performing along with the GBP. Economists advise the GBP may be able to benefit from global tariffs being put on partners as long as the US does not impose tariffs on the UK. In addition to this, the price movement of the Pound will also depend on monetary policy. The Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 (GMT+2). The regulator is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. This decision is driven by inflation concerns linked to the US Republican administration's trade policies. As a result, the GBP is also gaining support from the BoE, which remains cautious about reducing rates too quickly. In December, consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year, below analysts' expectations, nearing the 2.0% target. Meanwhile, the services CPI dropped sharply from 5.0% to 4.4%. However, rising energy costs could drive inflation higher. Additionally, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' decision to raise employers' National Insurance contributions, along with minimum wage indexation, has increased labour costs. This could, in turn, impact household spending. Why Did the US Dollar Lose Momentum? The gains seen during Monday’s Asian Session were in response to tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. However, tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been put on hold as both nations have said they are willing to provide 10,000 soldiers at their borders to stop drug trafficking and immigration. As the pause was announced, the US Dollar started to retreat as traders took advantage of the higher price to cash in their profits. Experts now point out that the tariff increases will impact half of all imports. Reducing reliance on external suppliers would require doubling domestic production, an unfeasible goal in the short term, potentially leading to a significant rise in consumer prices. As a result, Federal Reserve officials may be compelled to maintain the current policy for an extended period. Depending on inflation, the Fed may even consider tightening the policy if inflation rises. Against this backdrop, analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. President Trump acknowledged the potential negative effects of his actions but expressed confidence that no drastic consequences would occur. GBPUSD - Forecasts and Technical Analysis! The fundamental outlook for the UK is not likely to change this week, but for the US Dollar, the latest developments will likely change on a daily basis. Particularly, investors will be focusing on further comments on Tariffs, earnings data and this week’s employment data. If earnings data from Alphabet and Amazon are weaker than expectations and trigger a lower risk appetite, the US Dollar as a safe haven asset may increase in value. Investors will also monitor this week’s JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, Salary Growth and NFP Employment Change. If the employment data again reads higher than the current expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely be less tempted to cut interest rates any time soon. Consequently, the GBPUSD may fall as the BoE simultaneously cuts interest rates for the first time in 2025. If the price falls below 1.23777, the exchange rate will form a breakout and drop below most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. In addition to this, with a bearish momentum of 0.32%, the decline is also likely to bring the RSI below the 50.00 level. If this materialises, the price may witness a bearish signal pointing towards further declines. Key Takeaways: The US Dollar loses momentum after Trump puts tariffs on Canada and Mexico on hold. Tariffs in the UK are not likely in the near future but remain at risk for the next 4-years. The EU is likely to see tariffs imposed upon them. The Bank of England is likely to cut 0.25% basis points on Thursday. Analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%. If the GBPUSD drops below 1.23777, it will trigger a breakout and prompt a bearish signal. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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