The Race

[MightyMouse 12]

We are not compounding annually are we? We are compounding daily. Maybe that is the source of your confusion. If you have an approach that trades a few times a day and averages a point or two a day you will take K to million+ in about a year without assuming undue risk. (Undue obviously is defined by the individual trader). As another poster pointed out perhaps you dint not have an edge at all? If you are a day trader and not averaging a point or two a day or you have a couple of good weeks followed by a couple of bad weeks then what you think is an edge is probably not. You really are doing yourself a disservice to close your mind to what are not just possibilities but mathematical facts.

 

I did a quick goggle search for a decent position sizing calculator so you could slot n some figures and see for your self. I came across this bog that is a good 'meta page' for a whole bunch of position sizing resources (links at the end). Position Sizing

 

I am not confused a single bit. I used annual compounding for simplicity. I ball parked the time it would take to get returns equal to the return that a good traded ends up with. I arbitrarily chose 15%. I could have chosen 20 or 12 percent. Each would have been a good rate of return. I suppose someone could achieve 15% a day if that is what you are suggesting. That person would be the master of the universe.

 

I think a lot of the confusion from my statements comes from people thinking that a trader sets out to earn 15%. Which no one here living the traders dream would consider a decent return for the year. I simply think differently.

 

No one sets out to earn 15%, each CTA would love to come in at the top of the pack, because the notoriety would bring in a lot more money and they get paid on performance. But that is just not possible and the good ones end up averaging somewhere around 15%.

 

In October i Will have 1 full year of real time live data to know exactly how much of an edge I have. I know now, however, that It makes no where near the continually compounded rate that one would need to turn 5k into a million in a year.

 

The fact that I will not have a 5 or 6 digit return at the end of the year does not concern me in the slightest. More is always better, but at this point i am happy taking money from the markets.

 

I think the greatest source of confusion here is confusing what is possible with what is probable. It is completely possible to turn 5k into 1 million in a year. I simply would not do the things I would have to do to try to achieve that type of result. I am sure I stated this somewhere in the beginning of this thread.

 

I tried this a few times a while back and I believe I posted something to that effect on TL a while back. One of the times I was "1 trade away" from the million. I ended up losing a great deal of the account. If you want to get a different perspecitve on taxation, have a really good year and a really bad year trading without being set up properly. Another time I didn't get quite as high, but did go bust. I am not suggesting that it cannot be done because I could not do it. I am here watching because I do believe it can be done, and would like to see someone do it. The only difference between someone who did do it and me was 1 or 2 trades.

[ekshay 10]

06/24

Hit my day's loss limit.

Will post statement when it arrives.

 

As per my MM plan, I'll now be exclusively trading YM, instead of TF & CL.

This may require a few days on sim.

 

Hey, the markets are going to be closed from July 1st to 6th, correct?

Edited June 24, 2010 by ekshay

[Attila 10]

CME Group Holiday Calendar

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/24..........

[MightyMouse 12]

06/24

Hit my day's loss limit.

Will post statement when it arrives.

 

As per my MM plan, I'll now be exclusively trading YM, instead of TF & CL.

This may require a few days on sim.

 

Hey, the markets are going to be closed from July 1st to 6th, correct?

 

There are support groups for traders who need help coping with long periods of closed markets.

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/25... Treaded water all week while NQ put in 5 down in a row.. Daily looks so orderly.

[MightyMouse 12]

This newsletter is definitely from a group of penny stock experts.

 

CLICK HERE to SIGN-UP--> Free Penny Stock Newsletter

 

Oh wow awesome. I am glad there people like Dave around to take the guess work out of trading.

 

Thanks Dave Tonsley for selflessly posting that expert newsletter.

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/28............ If no further management of the race I will stop posting after this week..

[thalestrader 14]

Statement for 06/28............ If no further management of the race I will stop posting after this week..

 

If I were you, I'd keep posting as you are likely to at least win the iPad by default. I received two updates this weekend - yours showing a balance of 2531.80, showing you still leading the race with 1531.80 miles. I received a PM from sick saying he has not traded and therefore has had no change. I'm following along as I can, but I have had very little time at the computer for anything other than maintaining my stock trades at night. And as you are the only one who is actively trading right now, there seemed to be little need to post a consolidated summary.

 

As things look now, I will likely be unable to return to the race as a participant before its 20 week run ends. Sicko, in his PM, says he is back from vacation and will be back at it this week. Of course, it is Tuesday and I've heard nothing else. So, as far as I'm concerned, Attila, if I were you, I'd keep right at it. I'm sure I'm not the only one who appreciates your efforts, and someone ought to win the iPad, after all. And who better than the one who has most consistently and persistently stuck to the spirit of the race?

 

That being said, I have to say that I am very disappointed that we have not seen more action out of Sicko.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[amswak 10]

If I were you, I'd keep posting as you are likely to at least win the iPad by default.

 

LOL, if I keep posting my balance daily (even though it isn't changing) can I try to win the ipad if Atilla drops out? :-D

 

Atilla, I do agree with thales - I still enjoy your postings, even if for nothing more than trying to keep the spirit of the race going.

[bakrob99 11]

If I were you, I'd keep posting as you are likely to at least win the iPad by default. .Best Wishes,

Thales

 

Doesn't the winner also have to pay for everybody to travel to a resort ... that could be a might expensive Ipad.

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/29......

 

Any doubt in my mind as to the weight of units traded on the survival hopes of the micro account trader was removed yesterday... Trading one unit is very difficult as it removes any hope of adapting strategy to accommodate the 2 main types of PA... chop and trend. Hold one unit on a chop day and I think, why didn't I take 10 points every time it was presented? Take 10 points on a trend day and you are rewarded with the other pain. Granted neither situation reduces the account balance but still..

 

Yesterday I took the fastest 20 points I ever saw, leaving another comfortable 20 behind. I admit from the daily (huge gap not filled early plus the selling frenzy), I surmised I was definitely covering early but Attila the Greedy and impatient was having none of that. He wanted his money AND also insisted all of us quit for the day... He won the battle.

 

Admin should have stipulated a minimum participation and closeness to 1 mil. requirement as I don't have any Ipad feelings at all... The only things I am pre-occupied with at this point are the 2 preceding paragraphs... trading as best I can a thousand Ipads (only kidding Steve) will be possible once I show the Greedy and fearful one the door and keep him out...

Edited June 30, 2010 by Attila

[Attila 10]

Doesn't the winner also have to pay for everybody to travel to a resort ... that could be a might expensive Ipad.

 

Devil in the deatils......

[thalestrader 14]

Doesn't the winner also have to pay for everybody to travel to a resort ... that could be a might expensive Ipad.

 

 

Only if the winner hits the million ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Attila 10]

Mid September still far away... a lot could happen before then so good time to get to work and hopefully some more participants show up....

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/30.... Clearly Attila the insane on duty today. Got mesmerized enough by the early chop not to see what was being built. Was transfixed on 1877 as the key (enough to move the 1863 long exit from 1874 to 1877 before leaving for a meeting) but it was lowered to 1875 without my knowledge.

 

Lesson.. what is going on will continue to go on.... until it doesn't, and only at the close can that decision be made... Still, 8 down in a row for NQ has to be a record. Getting used to E7 to broaden opportunities.

 

A surprise not a lot was made today and not a lot was lost either.

[Attila 10]

Statement for 07/01... Baptism by Euro fire.. What potential.. to move like that on no significant news that I could find... 5 steps back, 7 steps forward continues. Anticipated the 1712 low.. shouldn't have.

[Attila 10]

07/03 Statement.... Not a bad week and plan to step on the gas a bit more next week.. NDX down 10 days in a row...

[thalestrader 14]

Nice work, Attila ... looks like you scared sicktrader away!

 

What happened to you, Sicko?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Attila 10]

Statement for 07/06.....

 

Well Sicko has nothing to be threatened about after my day today. Returned to my newbie roots..

 

Fell for the Post July 4th Fireworks.. And that is precisely what it was... booom!!.. then down. The neatest breakdown I ever saw occurred (LONG 15 min. trendline break AND price level) at NQ 1749 and change... I actually took the trade short... BUT quickly took 9 points and returned to fighting the trend. In my mind after 10 down days NQ was going to rise.. period. From then on it was click anything that moves.. a trading trance if you may. As all this happened watched Euro bump into 1.266+ resistance and ignored it.

 

Since an account can NEVER get anywhere with days like this I am from here on limiting daily account loss to 8%. This will also automatically reduce the overtrading on DOM's (days of madness). I should actually also increase units to 2 as this will really force selectivity as each trade will have more meaning but will stick to risk plan. With decent trading next level should arrive soon.

 

I remember the dip from $1800 or so down to $900 and it's beneficial effect. I Expect the same from this.

 

Onward and upwards!

[Attila 10]

For better or worse I am moving to 2 units and await better trades to mitigate the added risk somewhat. The risk is I run out of trades too early in the day but it's a chance I will take from here on and see how it works out. The anxiety of losing all the profit in a trade too much to bear. Will also on weekends post an equity chart.

[daVinciLite 10]

Hello,

 

Please add me back to The Race. I posted my account info 5-10-10. I have not traded since that time.

 

Thanks

dVL

[Attila 10]

Hello,

 

Please add me back to The Race. I posted my account info 5-10-10. I have not traded since that time.

 

Thanks

dVL

 

Woohoo! Company!... Grab a board!.. Waves can be treacherous but the right ones are sweet... just be selective:)

[Attila 10]

Statement for 07/08..... Sold my last at 1763.. just as the festivities were commencing.. Takes skill to be so timely..

[MidKnight 12]

Attila,

 

Did I read that right in your last statement that 1 unit is still being traded? No big deal if that's the case and you don't need to justify it to anyone on the board either. I was just curious if I was reading the statement right because you had mentioned 2 units was going to begin. I always find broker statement sort of tricky to read, especially if folks scale in/out.

 

With thanks,

MK