The Race

[thalestrader 14]

PS: I wish sicktrader would step up his level of participation...he claims to have done this before multiple times!

 

I too would like to see this. After all, if it had not been for Sicko assertions, I would never have thought to start this thread.

 

Let's Go, Sicko!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

....................

Edited June 19, 2010 by Gabe2004

[retire48 10]

Wow, I take a day off and a lot of talk.. Well I am still alive, had a decent Thursday

up to $2429 (Thales, will PM you), out of town so did not trade Friday. Will post Thursday's statement on Sunday evening.

 

Thales, I don't care what revisions you make to the race... FXCowboy, will miss your participation... I fully understand the pressure of going for a fixed (a very difficult one) goal AND attempting it in a spectator setting, after all, I posted the request to post my statement less often to trade my balance less.

 

As far as the goal goes, I am suprised anyone's trading is affected by it. I am pretty much oblivious to it. I have my risk control and unit growth limits in place and that's all I care about. Trading in public is a bit bothersome and I believe adversely affects many traders in spite if the anonimity of the internet.

 

The tiny account trader, paradoxically, is most likely to want to partcipate in race such as this one while he/she is least able to reach the goal for a couple of reasons:

 

Probably not a successful trader (small account)..

 

Doesn't understand the realities of trading (small account)

 

Is most likely to very affected by fear (doesn't have a lot of money) and greed (doesn't have a lot of money).

 

Please not criticizing any participating or that have participated here, just general observations of myself and others traders over the years.

 

Those that are able to do it don't feel the need to as they don't need to and they know how difficult it actually is so a complete waste of their time as they have nothing to prove. We all know those that participate in journals tend to want to prove something other than make money. Yes be the greatest trader that ever lived....

 

The timeline of the goal I ignored the minute I read it.. A 100k in 52 weeks maybe and even better, set a date, say December 31 2010 and the highest gainer wins. As we know, capital preservation matters as well. In fact, though complicated, I would suggest a consistency component, which actually is a better roadmap to higher gains long-term, whatever they are.

 

Please forgive typos.. iPhone typing here....

[gandalf33 10]

What about $5k to $100k?

 

I know the word "million" is more appealing and $5k to $100k in 20 weeks even seems realistic, losing the absolute fascination of the original idea, but maybe the realism of it is the beauty of it, which would keep the contestants still going. And maybe not, since I did not see any contestant even shifting through the $5k in their accounts.

 

I think that who has not made $1 mill in trading yet (which is perhaps 95-99% of SUCCESSFUL traders?) will not be able to withstand the pressure of trading $500k if they never had this amount in their accounts before, which is only half-way... (half-way in terms of money, but I admit, perhaps the last stage of trading $3k to a million). This fact alone greatly lowers the already tiny chances for the race to end successfully.

 

But with $5k to $100k, we're perhaps talking more luck than skill and that race would become too common compared to others - that I really don't know.

[Attila 10]

Wow, I take a day off and a lot of talk.. Well I am still alive, had a decent Thursday

up to $2429 (Thales, will PM you), out of town so did not trade Friday. Will post Thursday's statement on Sunday evening.

 

Thales, I don't care what revisions you make to the race... FXCowboy, will miss your participation... I fully understand the pressure of going for a fixed (a very difficult one) goal AND attempting it in a spectator setting, after all, I posted the request to post my statement less often to trade my balance less.

 

As far as the goal goes, I am suprised anyone's trading is affected by it. I am pretty much oblivious to it. I have my risk control and unit growth limits in place and that's all I care about. Trading in public is a bit bothersome and I believe adversely affects many traders in spite if the anonimity of the internet.

 

The tiny account trader, paradoxically, is most likely to want to partcipate in race such as this one while he/she is least able to reach the goal for a couple of reasons:

 

Probably not a successful trader (small account)..

 

Doesn't understand the realities of trading (small account)

 

Is most likely to very affected by fear (doesn't have a lot of money) and greed (doesn't have a lot of money).

 

Please not criticizing any participating or that have participated here, just general observations of myself and others traders over the years.

 

Those that are able to do it don't feel the need to as they don't need to and they know how difficult it actually is so a complete waste of their time as they have nothing to prove. We all know those that participate in journals tend to want to prove something other than make money. Yes be the greatest trader that ever lived....

 

The timeline of the goal I ignored the minute I read it.. A 100k in 52 weeks maybe and even better, set a date, say December 31 2010 and the highest gainer wins. As we know, capital preservation matters as well. In fact, though complicated, I would suggest a consistency component, which actually is a better roadmap to higher gains long-term, whatever they are.

 

Please forgive typos.. iPhone typing here....

 

 

This is my post...(Attila). Unfortunately my iPhone logged me on with my first alias here on TL that I no longer use.

[ekshay 10]

But with $5k to $100k, we're perhaps talking more luck than skill and that race would become too common compared to others - that I really don't know.

 

1.

Can we interpret that if the goal was $100k and max start fund was $5k, YOU would join?

I would.

 

2.

Are you saying that Luck, not Skill, is more likely to be a cause for someone taking a $5k account to $100k ???

This, I find hard to grasp.

[dam5h 10]

2.

Are you saying that Luck, not Skill, is more likely to be a cause for someone taking a $5k account to $100k ???

This, I find hard to grasp.

 

it's directly proportional to how many trades it take along the way.

[ekshay 10]

it's directly proportional to how many trades it take along the way.

Hey, that question was directed to Gandalf33.

 

Your point, I maybe understand. I interpret what you are saying is, that "the more the number of trades, the less that it is luck". That someone may have some opportune windfalls if its a few trades only. :hmmmm:

 

I still though, have a tough time with it. I mean $5k to $100k ... its 2000% return we are talking about. Attributing it to Luck !!!

 

Now, can the same trader go on to lose in the future. Sure.

[dam5h 10]

Hey, that question was directed to Gandalf33.

 

Your point, I maybe understand. I interpret what you are saying is, that "the more the number of trades, the less that it is luck". That someone may have some opportune windfalls if its a few trades only. :hmmmm:

 

I still though, have a tough time with it. I mean $5k to $100k ... its 2000% return we are talking about. Attributing it to Luck !!!

 

Now, can the same trader go on to lose in the future. Sure.

 

i've done it before, and now realize in hindsight that i was much luckier than good.

 

now if i do it again, i can claim it will not be luck (although i'll take any i can get). mainly because it will take far far more trades as my holding period is drastically shorter now, as well as different markets/instruments. down to 30 min from what was months when i went on that run.

[ekshay 10]

Back to the race.

 

This Race started on the week starting 26th April 2010, for a total duration of 20 weeks.

One of the requirements is that one needs to be active participant for atleast 10 weeks.

 

We are already 8 weeks in. Anyone who wants to join has another 2 weeks to raise their hand.

 

-----

 

I have not traded real money since Jan 2008. Other businesses kept me occupied.

Resuming this in Nov 2009, the last I simmed was Jan 2010. Then, busy again.

 

I hadn't even checked TL between Jan and May this year. When I first saw this thread it was already 5 weeks in.

 

I was hoping some major inspiration. Something that would kick me in the direction of trading real money millions.

 

Reading the first 200 posts of this thread, it really does seem that if Sicko & Thales had been able to continue, this page would have totally different kinds of posts. I hope they can return. Surely, it'll be an enjoyable experience for them as well.

 

Until then, I'll join in. Fresh deposit last week. No trades taken yet. Screenshot attached.

 

My personal goal would rather be a "humble" pikerly, naive target of :haha: 1000% return within the next 12 weeks. Thats taking this account from 2,500 to $25k.

 

Lets see if I am another statistic or an inspiration.

 

Cheers. :beer:

 

----

 

My primary psychological hurdle several years ago, was getting frozen after having something as normal as 3 losses in a row.

The amount didn't matter. The idea that "I was wrong" did. Always trying to fix the system, or find the grail edition of it.

I do believe I am no longer the same man I was back then. But, if that behaviour arises, the added accountability of the Race will help cut short the number of frozen days. :smoking:

[Attila 10]

Statement for 06/07.... couldn't figure out how to get regular PDF later that a day after.

[sicktrader 10]

I am on a vacation, but I will be trading starting Tuesday. 10 weeks is more than enough time. Well, not quite, but certainly possible now that I will be using multiple systems.

[MightyMouse 12]

A surprising but welcome post from MM!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales,

 

I felt uncomfortable and out of character when I typed it.

I apologize. I will try to be more consistently miserable.

 

 

MM

[gandalf33 10]

1. Can we interpret that if the goal was $100k and max start fund was $5k, YOU would join? I would.

 

No. That was merely loud thinking about race's principles & foundations. I'm new to trading and recently realized I wouldn't join any kind of race for the next few years. Then, maybe. I see you have already joined, and what I wish you is surpassing your goal.

 

2. Are you saying that Luck, not Skill, is more likely to be a cause for someone taking a $5k account to $100k ???

This, I find hard to grasp.

 

Yes. The words 'more likely' are perfectly accurate here. In my opinion, and a humble one here, if 50 people will join such a race ($5k to $100k), and we point a finger to one single trader before it starts, whom we know about he's the best (perhaps by much larger gains each year than the 2nd best from those 50), then this trader would perhaps end in top 10 of 50 contestants. Someone would be celebrated as the winner, with the real winner being amongst the top, but not on the top by the luck of others. If this race is then repeated 20 times, maybe he would end on the first place once, and consistently wind up amongst the top 10-15 people, maybe top 5. That's a good trader to me, not the actual winners changing from race to race.

 

However, the same person is more likely to arrive at a million over and over again if race's to be repeated - something that's "lost" by reducing the goal size, thus giving luck more room.

 

But, perhaps wham I'm talking about here, would be more true for $5k into $20k, not $100k. Thus I really cannott know at the moment - one man's opinion here.

[Kiwi 16]

Its like Soccer guys ... bloody hard to tell what's going to happen. Especially if you get an Italian referee.

[MightyMouse 12]

1.

Can we interpret that if the goal was $100k and max start fund was $5k, YOU would join?

I would.

 

2.

Are you saying that Luck, not Skill, is more likely to be a cause for someone taking a $5k account to $100k ???

This, I find hard to grasp.

 

Turning 5K into 100k in anything less than 20-25 years is without doubt a result of extraordinary luck.

 

Luck has a lot to do with achieving an unequal distribution of high positive returns. Embrace it. Don't reject it because you are going to need it.

[TMBTC 10]

Turning 5K into 100k in anything less than 20-25 years is without doubt a result of extraordinary luck.

 

Nice to see MM is back to his old self.

 

MM -- if you truly believe that, then why do you waste your time on trading? The way you put it, it doesn't seem all that lucrative to me...

 

----------

 

I believe this type of negative attitude (the type you see flooding trading forums) is some sort of psychological defense mechanism. It goes without saying that if people don't believe that certain levels of performance are achievable without being extremely lucky, then those people haven't come close to achieving sustained performance like that themselves. So, the natural response to cope with this perceived "failure" is to not take responsibility for it...it's not my fault I that can't do it, it's impossible...anyone who does do it is just lucky...etc. That way you don't have to take responsibility for your performance, because it's out of your hands.

 

This really wasn't directed at MM...just thoughts on the overall negative attitudes I see overwhelming trading forums.

 

For the record, I consider it very reasonable to turn a $5k account to $100k in one year for a great trader. Of course, as the account size grows, the yearly returns diminish proportionally for obvious reasons (ie turning $500k to $10 mil in one year is a different story).

[Cory2679 11]

But, perhaps wham I'm talking about here, would be more true for $5k into $20k, not $100k. Thus I really cannott know at the moment - one man's opinion here.

 

I think it has more to do with how the person arrived at their returns...I personally know of someone who bought some stock near the lows of the crash and held it....they've quadrupled their account (so equivalent of $5k to $20k)...and I'll tell you something...I bet they'd hold it all the way back down if it fell. They're returns tell nothing of their trading ability....and who knows, if the market continues to rally they may hit the equivalent of $100k!!...but yet, in my opinion, they aren't by any means good traders/investors.

 

However, a daytrader who has achieved the same returns is totally different...a daytrader who takes a handful of trades every single day, week after week after week, with reasonable leverage, who turns $5k into $20k (or $100k) is a real accomplishment.

 

So, I don't think you can go by money/returns because it really just depends...

 

I'd say as a rule of thumb: the higher frequency the trader, the less time that's needed to determine mastery/skill.

 

[MightyMouse 12]

Nice to see MM is back to his old self.

 

MM -- if you truly believe that, then why do you waste your time on trading? The way you put it, it doesn't seem all that lucrative to me...

 

----------

 

I believe this type of negative attitude (the type you see flooding trading forums) is some sort of psychological defense mechanism. It goes without saying that if people don't believe that certain levels of performance are achievable without being extremely lucky, then those people haven't come close to achieving sustained performance like that themselves. So, the natural response to cope with this perceived "failure" is to not take responsibility for it...it's not my fault I that can't do it, it's impossible...anyone who does do it is just lucky...etc. That way you don't have to take responsibility for your performance, because it's out of your hands.

 

This really wasn't directed at MM...just thoughts on the overall negative attitudes I see overwhelming trading forums.

 

For the record, I consider it very reasonable to turn a $5k account to $100k in one year for a great trader. Of course, as the account size grows, the yearly returns diminish proportionally for obvious reasons (ie turning $500k to $10 mil in one year is a different story).

 

Simply stating that luck has a lot to do with extraordinary gains is not negative unless you think that needing to be lucky to make a lot of money in a short period of time is negative, then it is negative for you, but not for me.

 

I am one of the few people on this thread that believe the goal can be achieved in spite of the fact that most traders have dropped out. In fact, I know that in time someone will do it.

 

If you think being realistic about trading results is negative, then I don't know what to say.

 

Turning 5k into 100k can be done it is simply very hard to do. It is even harder when you put a time constraint of 1 year onto the accomplishment of the goal.

 

If you can demonstrate the ability to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years, you will get you a top trading job at any of the major investment banking firms or hedge funds. They would kill each other to hire you since most of their traders do not come close to the annual return they would have to consistently do to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years.

 

15% per year is an awesome return and would put you in the top .1% of all traders. If the prospects of making "only" 15% does not seem lucrative to you, then you should probably find something else to do. It could certainly be a lot worse than 15% too and it is for most.

[TMBTC 10]

Simply stating that luck has a lot to do with extraordinary gains is not negative unless you think that needing to be lucky to make a lot of money in a short period of time is negative, then it is negative for you, but not for me.

 

I am one of the few people on this thread that believe the goal can be achieved in spite of the fact that most traders have dropped out. In fact, I know that in time someone will do it.

 

If you think being realistic about trading results is negative, then I don't know what to say.

 

Turning 5k into 100k can be done it is simply very hard to do. It is even harder when you put a time constraint of 1 year onto the accomplishment of the goal.

 

If you can demonstrate the ability to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years, you will get you a top trading job at any of the major investment banking firms or hedge funds. They would kill each other to hire you since most of their traders do not come close to the annual return they would have to consistently do to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years.

 

15% per year is an awesome return and would put you in the top .1% of all traders. If the prospects of making "only" 15% does not seem lucrative to you, then you should probably find something else to do. It could certainly be a lot worse than 15% too and it is for most.

 

You can't compare traders/fund managers managing millions of dollars with trading a $5k account.

 

I don't want to spend time arguing. We can just agree to disagree.

[MightyMouse 12]

You can't compare traders/fund managers managing millions of dollars with trading a $5k account.

 

I don't want to spend time arguing. We can just agree to disagree.

 

If the 5k is all you have, you should treat it like its a million. But, people learn at different rates which is why you consider this an argument in the first place.

[TMBTC 10]

If the 5k is all you have, you should treat it like its a million. But, people learn at different rates which is why you consider this an argument in the first place.

 

Well, it sounds like you've got it all figured out. Good luck. Sorry to have bothered you with my nonsense.

[yeaheah 10]

Hey guys, i'm still alive and will try another or some new strategies.

 

My balance is still $108.17

 

Haven't traded the last 3 weeks.

[thalestrader 14]

Turning 5K into 100k in anything less than 20-25 years is without doubt a result of extraordinary luck.

 

Luck has a lot to do with achieving an unequal distribution of high positive returns. Embrace it. Don't reject it because you are going to need it.

 

MM, have you ever read Gerald Loeb's The Battle for Investment Survival? Or Darvas's How I made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market? How about William O'Neils's How to Make Money in Stocks, or Bernard Baruch's My Own Story. You seem to own a line on what is and is not possible, and your mind has been closed to the possibility that you're line is crooked and leads you in the wrong direction.

 

The 5K to 100K using common stocks would actually be a much more interesting project to me. Perhaps once The Race concludes...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[amswak 10]

Hey guys, i'm still alive and will try another or some new strategies.

 

My balance is still $108.17

 

Haven't traded the last 3 weeks.

 

What a coincidence! I too am alive, getting ready to try out some new strats, and my balance is also still $108 + some change.

 

btw, I am amazed in the level of negativity recently in this thread. It was called a RACE for a reason. I don't think any of us entered without knowing how much of a challenge it would be...