The Race

[BlowFish 10]

Brownie,

 

I think I remember reading in a thread where you mentioned a screen capture program. If I am right, can you please mention it again because I really need one. Thanks in advance.

 

You can get Snaggit version 7(ish) legitimately for free. Has everything you could want. They (TechSmith) also now do a new thing called Jing which is some sort of capture and integrated cloud sharing gizzmo.

[ADarkerRattlingMe 10]

Brownie,

 

I think I remember reading in a thread where you mentioned a screen capture program. If I am right, can you please mention it again because I really need one. Thanks in advance.

 

I use Faststone Capture.

 

It doesn't have nearly as much fancy-stuff as the programs mentioned so far; but it is by far the most lightweight (cpu and memory usage).

 

A lot of the time I capture with FS and edit with Snag-it.

[thalestrader 14]

I'm a piker. Piker-in-Chief of the International Brotherhood of Pikers, as a matter of fact. And if I may offer my opinion (the opinion of a piker, so take it for what it's worth), I find it interesting in a thread devoted to growing a sub-piker account to a million large, that an article about one of the greatest professional gamblers alive today goes unremarked, but we do find a page devoted to account statement fonts and what constitutes too cheap or too dear commissions. But, as these issues must have some merit, let's have at it and be done with it so we can focus on the task at hand.

 

Let this piker go on record as stating that I really like Transact's statements. I honestly would not want them to change anything. I can print them without using $80 worth ink, and I can see exactly what was done and how it shook out at a glance, etc. and so on. I like my statements like I like my charts - clean and crisp in black and white. If I wanted a Hallmark card ...

 

Let this piker also go on record as stating that one will never make a million worrying about commissions rather than focusing on a plan that gives you a sharp edge capable of cutting through the seemingly insurmountable.

 

While I never ran piker dough to a million, I did manage to run 3K to 100K and then back down to 2K all in about three months soon after I opened my first futures account back in the 90's. And back then I was paying $50 r/t (plus fees!) to Lind-Waldock the whole way up and the whole way down. Of course, I was not day trading. But the point is this: Even at $50 r/t, the commissions didn't keep me from being wildly profitable, and the commissions did not cause my wild blow up (it was my recklessness that led both to the wild profits and the wild destruction).

 

And consider - does anyone here have any idea the commissions paid as a percent of capital by Livermore, Wyckoff, and Loeb? Typically commissions were about 3%- 5% of capital (1.5%-2.5% in and 1.5%-2.5% out); and back then, we of the piker guild paid even more dear than that! But that did not prevent these men from amassing (and in at least one case, losing) great fortunes. By contrast, in my little piker account, commissions and fees were just 5% of my profits, and if measured against the notional value of my positions, commissions and fees barely register at all!

 

So let's keep our eye on the prize folks - if you are in The Race, you should be focused on sticking to your plan to get from four figures (or less) to seven figures. If you do not have a plan, you should be working on developing one. If you have a plan that will take from your little 1K to 1,000,000, it will take you there whether you are paying Interactive Brokers bundle rate or the higher commissions charged by the low day trade margin FCM's and IB's.

 

macdfx is right. If you are in The Race, you are, at least with respect to the qualifying account, a Piker. Be proud to be a piker in this race. TL has 43, 254 registered "traders," and only 8 have bellied up to the bar to participate. You each ought to be proud to be called a piker. We are here trying publicly to do what all pikers everywhere and at all times have always dreamed of doing.

 

Even the self-professed "pros" don't have the sand to join in - sure, we see them lurking, and lurking repeatedly, but will they join us and compete against us, bringing to bear there superior data mining, intelligent predicting algorithms, and the added edge of paying pennies to our dollars in transactions costs? Of course not - because just about every flippin' one of them is a fraud, a phony, and a fake who will tell you they won't compete because they already "know" it can't be done.

 

Well, folks, as James Baldwin said, "those who say it can't be done are usually interrupted by others doing it." Let's keep on interrupting them, shall we?

 

The Few. The Proud. The Pikers.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales the Piker

Proud Member of the International Brotherhood of Pikers Since 1986

Edited April 30, 2010 by thalestrader
typo

[MidKnight 12]

LOL - what a well written, inspiring and funny piece. Thanks for the post

[bathrobe 10]

well stated, correct, and understood

 

[thalestrader 14]

Just caught up with your contest, and am trying to wrap my head around it. In particular,

2) the winner must use a portion of the winnings to provide transportation, hotel, and dinners for 3-5 days for each of the participants at a venue of the winner's choosing. 

. Since new entrants are accepted at any time, what's to stop several from signing up just before the winner reaches the goal? Guess you'll cross that bridge should any of us approach it...

 

As mentioned in the "Let's Trade" thread that prompted The Race, in order to be included in the trip, a Racer must participate for a minimum of ten weeks, unless he or she shows a statement of a legitimately blown account. For example, if you start with 3K today, and you blow $2600 on Monday and thus you fall below your broker's minimum margin requirements, you have earned your seat at the party table. While there is no requirement that one trades every day, week, or even month, one must still show that one was making a legitimate attempt to accomplish the goal of the contest and must participate in the life of the thread. At the conclusion of the contest, those who participated will decide together who exhibited a proper effort and who was simply trying to get a free ticket to the ball hoping to dance with sicktrader.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited April 30, 2010 by thalestrader

[sicktrader 10]

I'm a piker. Piker-in-Chief of the International Brotherhood of Pikers, as a matter of fact. And if I may offer my opinion (the opinion of a piker, so take it for what it's worth), I find it interesting in a thread devoted to growing a sub-piker account to a million large, that an article about one of the greatest professional gamblers alive today goes unremarked, but we do find a page devoted to account statement fonts and what constitutes too cheap or too dear commissions. But, as these issues must have some merit, let's have at it and be done with it so we can focus on the task at hand.

 

Let this piker go on record as stating that I really like Transact's statements. I honestly would not want them to change anything. I can print them without using $80 worth ink, and I can see exactly what was done and how it shook out at a glance, etc. and so on. I like my statements like I like my charts - clean and crisp in black and white. If I wanted a Hallmark card ...

 

Let this piker also go on record as stating that one will never make a million worrying about commissions rather than focusing on a plan that gives you a sharp edge capable of cutting through the seemingly insurmountable.

 

While I never ran piker dough to a million, I did manage to run 3K to 100K and then back down to 2K all in about three months soon after I opened my first futures account back in the 90's. And back then I was paying $50 r/t (plus fees!) to Lind-Waldock the whole way up and the whole way down. Of course, I was not day trading. But the point is this: Even at $50 r/t, the commissions didn't keep me from being wildly profitable, and the commissions did not cause my wild blow up (it was my recklessness that led both to the wild profits and the wild destruction).

 

And consider - does anyone here have any idea the commissions paid as a percent of capital by Livermore, Wyckoff, and Loeb? Typically commissions were about 3%- 5% of capital (1.5%-2.5% in and 1.5%-2.5% out); and back then, we of the piker guild paid even more dear than that! But that did not prevent these men from amassing (and in at least one case, losing) great fortunes. By contrast, in my little piker account, commissions and fees were just 5% of my profits, and if measured against the notional value of my positions, commissions and fees barely register at all!

 

So let's keep our eye on the prize folks - if you are in The Race, you should be focused on sticking to your plan to get from four figures (or less) to seven figures. If you do not have a plan, you should be working on developing one. If you have a plan that will take from your little 1K to 1,000,000, it will take you there whether you are paying Interactive Brokers bundle rate or the higher commissions charged by the low day trade margin FCM's and IB's.

 

macdfx is right. If you are in The Race, you are, at least with respect to the qualifying account, a Piker. Be proud to be a piker in this race. TL has 43, 254 registered "traders," and only 8 have bellied up to the bar to participate. You each ought to be proud to be called a piker. We are here trying publicly to do what all pikers everywhere and at all times have always dreamed of doing.

 

Even the self-professed "pros" don't have the sand to join in - sure, we see them lurking, and lurking repeatedly, but will they join us and compete against us, bringing to bear there superior data mining, intelligent predicting algorithms, and the added edge of paying pennies to our dollars in transactions costs? Of course not - because just about every flippin' one of them is a fraud, a phony, and a fake who will tell you they won't compete because they already "know" it can't be done.

 

Well, folks, as James Baldwin said, "those who say it can't be done are usually interrupted by others doing it." Let's keep on interrupting them, shall we?

 

The Few. The Proud. The Pikers.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales the Piker

Proud Member of the International Brotherhood of Pikers Since 1986

 

 

Thales,

 

It was a good story indeed. However, There are many great gamblers out there, and in the end, money mangement leads to their destruction. I am a gambler, have been pretty much all my life. I remember in high school myself and a friend bought a tout for a week, and I managed to lose 7K on top of the 2k I had to pay him. Well, this isn't my point, but I paid the bookie, and I paid for this mistake for the next five years. Just two weeks ago, one of the most recognized gamblers in the world left a note on his forum that "he would be away for awhile". Well, two days later they found him and his wife in a double suicide (though not proven yet to be the case). You see, he was down and was chasing. He owed agents all over the world, but nobody outside of his circle knew. Turns out he put 500k down on Duke in the NCAA finals, and we all know the result. The man had been a millionaire many times over, and I believe he could have paid everything off if he unloaded his home and everything else. The bottom line is that for good or for bad you need to stick to your plan. If it goes bad, then if your plan is sound, just hold your sack and wait for it to go right.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is an updated list of Racers along with their respective posted starting stake. If I have missed anyone, let me know. Also, all Racers should try to get his or her Friday statement posted by Sunday morning. I would like to post the the week ending summary before Sunday's Tokyo open. Furthermore, rather than taking a chance that I miss one of your posts, please PM me your week-ending equity so I can more easily and quickly put the summary together and get that posted to the thread.

 

 

yeaheah $ 137.80

 

fxThunder $ 453.43

 

sicktrader $ 941.31

 

thalestrader $1537.75

 

daedalus $1653.85

 

enoch benjamin $2036.36

 

ADarkerRattlingMe $2196.80

 

bathrobe $2542.38

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

There are many great gamblers out there, and in the end, money management leads to their destruction.

 

Or, rather, poor money management leads to their destruction. I agree completely. And money management, albeit a far more aggressive MM than is usually advocated among traders, will be key to succeeding at reaching the million.

 

This is why I posted that article about Dahlman. There are some real nuggets in there that I think offer hints that may help us along the way. For example, the author tells us that

 

If Dahlman does not look like a gambler, he does not bet like a gambler either. At least not like any gambler I've seen in action, most of them, admittedly, losers. In the two days I watched him bet, he never put serious money on a horse with long odds. Not once did I get the vicarious thrill of seeing him hit a 20-to-1 shot or collect on a $500, $200 or even $50 exacta. He is a plodder.

 

This reminds me of advice Linda Raschke once gave in an interview in "Inside Advantage," a defunct newsletter published by Murray Ruggiero in the '90's:

 

You can start out trading a $4000 account trading a 1 lot ... but you don't position trade .... you should be in there [and day trade] and try to grab $200 a trade until you can build up ...there is no reason you couldn't average $1000/week trading a one lot ... throw all the percentage crap out the window ... it is much more important to say I was able to make $2000 a month [than I made 300% on my margin] ... if you are making $20000-$25000 [per year] off of a one lot, that is fabulous. That is what I try to do

 

My plan, as far as adding contracts, is similar to yours, though not quite as agressive (I plan on adding every $1500 as compared to your $1300. Like you, I will finish each week trading the same number of lots with which I started the week, regardless of any equity increase that would allow adding size.

 

As Rashcke suggests, I want to get in there and grab what I can each day per contract on average and over time, taking into account the inevitable losing streaks.

 

Elsewhere, Raschke herself advocates not more frequent trading, but rather adding size to your established "set-ups" as your capital increases. Essentially, what we are trying to do in this thread is accelerate the equity curve through aggressive (though somehow sound) money management. In other words, though we are accelerating a positive equity curve, we do not want to do so by relying on the "Hail Mary" pass, but rather through a strong running and passing game played as a hurry up offense. This is why we will likely not be able to get any Browns fans to participate in The Race (nudge nudge wink wink).

 

I also cut the million mile march into much smaller increments. I have small segments or mile markers along the way. They are not really goals so much as gauges telling me whether or not I am on track. For example, my first marker was at the $615 profit level. I hit that this week. I may fall below it on Monday, for all I know. But, within my plan, it is a marker telling me where I am on the course and how I'm doing. My next marker is at an additional $861 profit. I am a few dollars into that piece.

 

So far this has been a fun project for me, and hope each of us gets to stand together at the finish line.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[amswak 10]

If you believe it is possible to make $200 per contract per day, then it is theoretically possible to turn $1k into $1mil in 20 weeks (you would have $1,217,500 on week 19, actually).

 

The question is could you execute at the same level when looking at a 500 contract trade (which it would eventually get to) as you did with one or two contracts? For most people, this is where I would think things break down. (of course assuming the additional slippage from trying to fill 500 contracts doesn't cause a problem...)

[enochbenjamin 10]

Or, rather, poor money management leads to their destruction. I agree completely. And money management, albeit a far more aggressive MM than is usually advocated among traders, will be key to succeeding at reaching the million...

 

This reminds me of advice Linda Raschke once gave in an interview in "Inside Advantage," a defunct newsletter published by Murray Ruggiero in the '90's:

 

You can start out trading a $4000 account trading a 1 lot ... but you don't position trade .... you should be in there [and day trade] and try to grab $200 a trade until you can build up ...there is no reason you couldn't average $1000/week trading a one lot ... throw all the percentage crap out the window ... it is much more important to say I was able to make $2000 a month [than I made 300% on my margin] ... if you are making $20000-$25000 [per year] off of a one lot, that is fabulous. That is what I try to do

 

Excellent post. I think the late George Lane NEVER funded an account with more than $5000 and constantly withdrew the funds. If I recall correctly his reasoning had more to do with distrust of brokers than trading, but his premise is still valid - that if you know how to trade you should be able to make a living off of a 5k account. This "Race" will either prove or disprove this statement.

 

Linda's comments remind me of another trader whose name i can't recall at the moment who stated that he never saw a trader on the floor who hit homeruns who lasted. Most of the seasoned veterans hit singles and doubles all day every day - week after week and year after year. I think a lot of traders get lulled in reading about the "Market Wizzards" who are not normal people - they are the Michael Jordans of the world. The aforementioned trader also recalls when he first started a veteran asked him why he was trying to capture so much all the time and explained to him that if he just tried to get $300/day he would be making a very respectable $72,000/year. That's when his light bulb went off and he started adding size NOT ticks to his $300 nut. If you can consistently get $300/day with a single contract get up to 20 contracts and your earning 1.5 million/year.

 

Now don't get me wrong - trading size is a lot harder than it sounds. I can trade 1 lots fairly well. I've managed 2,3 and even 4 without too much of a problem. But for some reason my psyche has a hard time getting up to 5/6 contracts and I do some pretty bizarre things that result in some pretty significant losses in a short amount of time (seconds).

 

Anyway I might be rambling as I started the whiskey wind-down and the real reason I logged on was to see if I was still in the race after I forgot to post my losing statement yesterday. I think I did post that I hit my max loss yesterday - had made up for it today and had a $500+ day but got greedy after my quitting time and ended up with just $265 today.

 

I feel this post is getting long and not sure I'm adding anything of value, so good nite all!

[sicktrader 10]

Thales,

 

You should go into teaching once you have made your cash.

 

Second, I explained before the $1,300 does provide room for a few trades before I fall under my $900 margin. But, more importantly, I know what my system averages a week in terms of points. I need 100-120 points to double, and I know my average to reach that is less than two weeks. Your potential problem, no harm intended, as I see it is that you are mixing this with that and really don't know how long it takes you to double. Maybe it will go your way, but maybe it won't. I hope that you make it, and I mean that, but if you are unsure of the system that you are using that may lead to trouble. I know that you have systems that you have used a long time, but you had mentioned that in the Race you were also trying some new systems as well.

[bathrobe 10]

So, obviously this week I was unable to trade for the most part. Today was like the other(s) I do not remember right now how many days. Only 2 ticks on euro on 1 contract. I am going to rest up and hydrate this weekend so I can get at it on Monday.

 

Chris

[amswak 10]

Thales,

 

You should go into teaching once you have made your cash.

 

+1 I agree. And I thought the article you previously posted was great.

[amswak 10]

I am going to rest up and hydrate this weekend

 

I use migraines as an excuse to drink extra coffee :coffee:

[MCM 10]

Hi - for those who get headaches from staring at the screen - and for all people who stare at screens all day. An optometrist friend of mine gave some great advice a few years ago, that has helped me and others from eye strain.... and saved some friends from such headaches.

Your eyes are a muscle - get into the habit of exercising them. Every 20minutes or so, look up from the screen and refocus them at something in the distance. look out the window, get up from the desk and refocus. Take your eyes for a quick walk and stretch. Make it part of the trading day.

 

Otherwise, good luck with the race, I dont intra day trade enough/much, but might join in a few weeks when I get back from holidays for a bit of fun. I just thought I would post with the eye advice.

 

 

Id swear you were a pilot - only other place I have other heard that piece of advice is from my buddies who are Navy pilots.

 

Enjoying the Race - thinking it might just be worth it to open up an account or pull some cash out of one account to get below the starting minimum amount.

[bathrobe 10]

I use migraines as an excuse to drink extra coffee :coffee:

 

When I cut caffeine out of my diet my migraines let up some.....not all the way but it helped.

[thalestrader 14]

... more importantly, I know what my system averages a week in terms of points. I need 100-120 points to double, and I know my average to reach that is less than two weeks. Your potential problem, no harm intended, as I see it is that you are mixing this with that and really don't know how long it takes you to double.

 

I think we are very much on the same page. I need 120 ticks to double. Average time to 120 ticks based upon back tests should be less than two weeks (based on trading every day - I will be out much of May, and after Monday, my trading will be somewhat spotty for several weeks).

 

I think I know how you plan to get to a million. Whether I can execute that plan remains to be seen. Theoretically (famous last word) this is possible. There are potential problems everywhere.

 

Also, as size increases, ticks to double from previous levels should decrease, as it is possible to add size between levels. For example, if from 1500 to 3000 require 120 ticks net of commish and fees with one contract, one would assume that one also needs 120 ticks net of commish and fees trading two contracts to move from 3000 to 6000. However, at 60 ticks, equity will be 4500, so a third contract will be added, this will mean 6000 is reached after an additional 40 ticks net, so while it will take 120 ticks to move from level 1 to level 2, it will take 100 ticks to move form level 2 to level 3. From level three (6000) to level 4 (12000) will require 95 ticks.

 

This assumes perfect progression and perfect addition of contracts at $1500 increments. Of course, the equity curve will not be perfect, and thus, I assume that each double will require between 100-120 ticks net of commish and fees.

 

This is proving to be an extremely enjoyable game, sicktrader.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[amswak 10]

thales,

 

out of curiosity, and maybe I am just thinking backwards this evening, why do you stick to a doubling position size strategy? If you grow your account based on a fixed position-to-equity ratio to size positions (and assuming ideal constant gains) it should follow an exponential curve, not a square curve (as simply doubling would). Is sticking to doubling done for risk management purposes?

[brownsfan019 17]

In other words, though we are accelerating a positive equity curve, we do not want to do so by relying on the "Hail Mary" pass, but rather through a strong running and passing game played as a hurry up offense. This is why we will likely not be able to get any Browns fans to participate in The Race (nudge nudge wink wink).

 

As I learned in the p/l thread, you are correct that many won't participate b/c they can't or won't. I posted daily blotters for a very long time in those threads and very few posted w/ me regularly. I'd say basically no one posted with the regularity that I was. And it got old posting by myself.

 

I think I've said in a few threads that I will not be participating in the race. Personally, I think there is a fundamental flaw in a contest where the participants realize that the goal is very unrealistic. I don't plan my business this way, nor do I trade this way. I set realistic goals as this is my livelihood. It's not a game or just a fun little thing to do on the side as a hobby.

 

So I'd ask that any comments directed to me entering the race stop b/c I will not be joining this particular version of the race.

[thalestrader 14]

So I'd ask that any comments directed to me entering the race stop b/c I will not be joining this particular version of the race.

 

No problem, Brownie. I was just making what I thought a somewhat funny joke about the Browns (obviously directed to you), and it was not intended to egg you into joining us this time around. I respect anyone's decision to join or not join in this edition of The Race, including yours. I'm happy just to have you along as our guardian moderator.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

out of curiosity, and maybe I am just thinking backwards this evening, why do you stick to a doubling position size strategy? If you grow your account based on a fixed position-to-equity ratio to size positions (and assuming ideal constant gains) it should follow an exponential curve, not a square curve (as simply doubling would). Is sticking to doubling done for risk management purposes?

 

You are obviously much smarter than I, as I confess that I am unable to wrap my head around what is meant by a "square curve." The best answer I can give at this point is that I have always used a fixed % equity for position sizing, and have not turned 1K into 1 million in 20 weeks doing so. So, I am looking at the problem from the most elemenatry and child-like view: If I am going to make 1K grow to 1,000,000, I only need to double my bank roll 10 times. Sounds easy, right? I know it is not going to be that easy, but we Pikers have to start some where if we are to climb the Pike's Peak of Pikerdom.

 

I'm all ears, and that is what this thread is for, so if you have ideas, please share them. Feel free to use charts, graphs, equations, etc. and so, but please do share.

 

Also, in the initial post I made a remark concerning the risk of ruin. I would encourage others (blowfish, kiwi) to share their knowledge about these matters with us. I did not mean to silence any such discussion. I just want to avoid the usual crankiness that thread such as this tend to elicit at venues such as ET.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Head2k 10]

I believe that by a "square curve" a parabolic function is meant. But I believe that Thales' MM doesn't result in a parabolic equity growth. Actually it is exponential-like curve composed of little linear segments

Each linear segment represents one week and each following week is twice steeper than the previous one, which resembles 2^x, not x^2.

Assuming he actually doubles his position after every week and he has perfectly constant gains per contract.

 

As for Risk of Ruin, I believe it remains more or less constant for the whole race, if one doesn't change system and if one uses the same position to equity ratio for the whole race. Which seems to be the case.

In normal conditions, I guess a trader would like to decrease his RoR as his capital grows, but this is a race so an aggressive MM is used. That is also the reason I wouldn't join such a race. I am a beginner and the primary goal for me is to preserve my capital, not to become a millionaire in half a year.

[sicktrader 10]

Thales,

I ended the week at $1555.63. I will post a statement when I stop in at the office later. Thanks for your effort in all of this.

[yeaheah 10]

This are all transactions from last week:

 

 

Good weekend everybody.