Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Tams

Catalogue of Strats Which DID NOT Work

Recommended Posts

somewhere else in the forum, there is a thread on

Catalogue of Strats Which Worked

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f106/catalogue-strats-worked-7750.html

 

well... let's attack the grail from both sides,

let's assemble a

Catalogue of Strats Which DID NOT Work

 

the other thread focus on automated systems,

I am starting this thread in the general trading area,

so that we can talk about Concepts, Methods, Tactics, Strategies as well as Systems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me kick off the discussion...

 

regarding the old adage... the Trend is Your Friend

 

 

one strategy that does not work is to go against the trend.

 

but, you might ask... how do I know the trend?

 

a kid can eyeball the chart and tell you the trend.

but we are not kids,

we over analyze things,

we can see the trees, but not the forest.

 

ok, a few people other than kids can see the trend too,

I am referring to the price action folks.

 

but not everybody are gifted to be price action traders, what am I to do?

 

 

May I suggest a moving average?

any moving average would do... simple, exponential, weighted, zero lag... etc.

 

what about the length?

try 20 period to start... then adjust as required.

 

try this analysis:

measure the trough to peak range of the moving average...

which range is bigger?

the down leg or the up leg?

 

ask yourself...

which leg has more profit potential?

which leg would you rather be on?

 

 

 

side note:

what not to trade:

instrument that has little volume

instrument that has little direction

they maybe good for investing/gambling, but not trading

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you consider using moving averages as trading with the trend, then what is your opinion about "moving average crossovers"? Do they work for you?

 

you are welcomed to start a new thread on the subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:bang head:

you are welcomed to start a new thread on the subject.

I thought this was a discussion, and you brought up moving averages.

 

I expounded on your comment and asked about moving average crossovers and your opinion of them....

 

Or what exactly is it that you are trying to discuss here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:bang head:

I thought this was a discussion, and you brought up moving averages.

 

I expounded on your comment and asked about moving average crossovers and your opinion of them....

 

Or what exactly is it that you are trying to discuss here?

 

I am trying to assemble a

Catalogue of Strats Which DID NOT Work.

 

if you think MA crossover does not work, then post it here.

if you don't know if it works or not, then start a thread to discuss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually tough to come up with qualified answers.

 

I'll offer this one buying 'oversold' selling 'overbought' markets based on oscillators (such as stochastic s) in trending markets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NOT working:

 

Trying to reverse a NOT working strategy and thereby producing a working strategy.

 

That's why this thread is pointless.

 

 

 

Some strategies that are not working:

(For the following assuming that "not working" means "producing loss")

 

 

Strategy 1.

Enter.

Wait until the position goes into negative.

(=inverse buy&hold)

 

Strategy 2.

a) Enter.

b) When positions turns increasingly negative increase position size (=try to average down).

c) When positions comes back close to break-even liquidate most of position (=realize loss).

d) Wait until condition b) is met again.

 

Strategy 2 is very frequently used obviously.

 

 

What can be taken from the examples:

Bad money management is a fail-safe road to loss.

(Point of entry is not that important if you want to loose big.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
NOT working:

 

...Strategy 2.

 

b) When positions turns increasingly negative increase position size (=try to average down).

 

average down is no doubt the biggest sin of all.

 

I have yet to meet a long term survivor who uses average down as a strategy.

(it might work on a buy and hold long term investment, but even Buffet got burnt a few times)

 

 

a side note:

What is the quickest way to lose the "newbie" moniker? --- try average down.

Edited by Tams

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you consider using moving averages as trading with the trend, then what is your opinion about "moving average crossovers"? Do they work for you?

 

using 'moving average crossovers' is definitely a strategy that DOES NOT WORK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
using 'moving average crossovers' is definitely a strategy that DOES NOT WORK

 

OK, but any insight as to WHY NOT, since moving averages themselves seem to follow the trend?

 

Kinda curious, as that's what I was looking to gain some further understanding about here....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OK, but any insight as to WHY NOT, since moving averages themselves seem to follow the trend?

 

Kinda curious, as that's what I was looking to gain some further understanding about here....

 

lots of talks here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/ma-cross-ranging-day-whipsaws-5995.html

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/fresh-first-crossover-strategies-7338.html

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/moving-average-crossover-volume-surge-2945.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have yet to see any evidence that the Jack Hershey / Spydertrader way of drawing lines all over the place work. I would definitely put that in the does not work category.

 

:cool:

 

We could however add it to the does not work but people cling to it like it does category.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This one is debatable - and also a long term trading subject - and also questionable in terms of what is long term, what parameters are used, what markets are traded.

The original turtle trading rules don't appear to work anymore.

They worked very well from the 70s to the 90s then have been pretty poor since. Variations on the model appear to work, however the original seem to have stopped working. (weather it works again in the future is the debate)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OK, but any insight as to WHY NOT, since moving averages themselves seem to follow the trend?

 

Kinda curious, as that's what I was looking to gain some further understanding about here....

 

Could be because a lot of the time markets don't 'trend' (depending on how one defines 'trend' of course).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, so I’m still waiting to see whether anybody can provide any evidence to support their positions on strategies they deem to be ineffective.

 

I've been going through this thread and have seen claims being made that a certain method doesn’t work yet no rigorous data has been provided to support such a hypothesis. I thought evidenced based trading was the fulcrum of good trading but hey, what do I know. May be there is a floating teapot in outer space! :missy:

 

If I came across somebody making a claim that they think XYZ method is ineffective I would immediately ask them the following questions:

 

1. Did you understand the basis of the methodology?

2. If you did understand the basis of the methodology how did you know that you understood it correctly?

3. Did you test the method over large enough data set?

4. Did you conduct out of sample tests?

5. Did you forward test the method and compare it to the statistics produced from your out of sample tests?

6. Did you test whether the method produces trades better than random?

 

These are just a few that come to mind.

 

Testing new trading strategies is like going out on many different dates. You have to interview the woman before you allow her into your bedroom. She will either turn you on or turn you off depending on what answers she gives. It's the same with trading strategies. You have to interview your trading strategy so it can prove to you whether it's worthy to have your hard cash inserted into! Treat new methods with respect and give them a chance through rigorous enquiry. One day you may get lucky with one and it may end up being a cash cow for you :D

 

Peace..........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Testing new trading strategies is like going out on many different dates. You have to interview the woman before you allow her into your bedroom. She will either turn you on or turn you off depending on what answers she gives. It's the same with trading strategies.

.

 

except those women who look so good you just throw your cash at them in the hope they will let you into their bedroom.

 

And then you marry them and they stop working!

 

(i know this is very un PC - i apologise for those who are offended)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
risking one dollar for a 50 cents target is definitely not going to work...

 

Not sure about that. As long as you are winning round 70% why not?

 

mathematically it sounds good... if life (ie trading) is a linear arithmetic event.

 

consider this:

 

trade#1= 0.50

trade#2= 0.50

trade#3= 0.50

trade#4= 0.50

trade#5= 0.50

trade#6= 0.50

trade#7= 0.50

trade#8= (1.00)

trade#9= (1.00)

trade#10= (1.00)

net = 0.50

 

 

1. if you win in the beginning, then lose later, you will break even.

but life is not linear... if you experienced multiple losses before accumulating enough "risk" capital, your predicament is a fast wipe out.

 

2. in reality... most practitioners would win some, then lose some, then win some again...

in the best case scenario, the trading career would ended up a statistically perpetual borderline break even event.

 

3. people increase their trade sizes (especially during a loss. ie average down)...

what happens is, whatever (meager profit and inflated ego) you accumulated at the beginning is not enough to cover the magnified losses later.

 

4. people move their stops and take quick profits... (I know, that is another story....)

 

 

there are more to it...

but this should be enough to stop any semi-intelligent newbie.

Edited by Tams

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mathematically it sounds good... if life (ie trading) is a linear arithmetic event.

 

consider this:

 

trade#1= 0.50

trade#2= 0.50

trade#3= 0.50

trade#4= 0.50

trade#5= 0.50

trade#6= 0.50

trade#7= 0.50

trade#8= (1.00)

trade#9= (1.00)

trade#10= (1.00)

net = 0.50

 

 

1. if you win in the beginning, then lose later, you will break even.

but life is not linear... if you experienced multiple losses before accumulating enough "risk" capital, your predicament is a fast wipe out.

 

2. in reality... most practitioners would win some, then lose some, then win some again...

in the best case scenario, the trading career would ended up a statistically perpetual borderline break even event.

 

3. people increase their trade sizes (especially during a loss. ie average down)...

what happens is, whatever (meager profit and inflated ego) you accumulated at the beginning is not enough to cover the magnified losses later.

 

4. people move their stops and take quick profits... (I know, that is another story....)

 

 

there are more to it...

but this should be enough to stop any semi-intelligent newbie.

 

No. This does not happen if you properly calculated your position size to give an acceptable risk of ruin. And you know what a high win rate actually is much better for risk of ruin than high R:R. It also tends to produce a smoother equity curve. This means you can actually bet larger with the same RoR as a lower %winner system

 

Sure you get streaks of losers but they are much shorter with a 70% win rate than with say a 30% win rate. Trying to find some tables for you but can't right now having a senior moment with google.

 

Edit: I should add I would probably want 80%+ to trade 2:1 risk:reward

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Picking Top/Bottom does not work.

 

if you have the power to profitably pick top/bottom...

you should also have the power to correctly pick the 6 numbers to win a lottery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i disagree with picking tops/bottoms and trading against the trend as "do not work" strategies.

 

why? because:

 

1. professionally, i trade profitably using both reversals and trend following strategies.

 

2. factually, Vegasoul (a highly successful hedge fund) has three major components to their strategy, of which one is trading reversals. their results and strategy summary proves that reversal trading is not a "do not work" strategy. for the summary of their strategy and results, its available in EurekaHedge (subscription based) and Cogent Hedge (free upon registeration).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
    • lmfx just officially launched their own LMGX token, Im planning to grab a couple of hundred and maybe have the option to stake them. 
    • Date: 2nd April 2025.   Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!   The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports. USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation! Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement". Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised. Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products. The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.   USDJPY 5-Minute Chart   US Economic and Employment Data The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting. The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation. USDJPY Technical Analysis Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.     The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674. Key Takeaway Points: Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions. Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries. The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details. The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.