The $!(V@# / DOW Spread

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Turned the current Active Green Stay Line to almost flat angle.

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun

 

Order Changes:

Buy stops moved to ~ 11940 Jun

 

Comments: … barely on topic

“…If Germans rioted they would be in the streets today. They totally got sold out beyond belief. But it doesn’t seem to be in their nature to riot so rather I think they will dump their Euros and buy gold. That’s how Germans riot…” Michael Krieger, circa 2010

 

“… gold will not save them” zdo, circa 2010

 

The Road To Destruction | David Chapman | Safehaven.com

types, notwithstanding…

 

Comments:

Pension Pulse: Is the World Heading Towards Parity?

Bangkok Dangerous | zero hedge

 

Comments:

and just for mean snicks…

The Silver Curtain | zero hedge

 

Have a great weekend all...

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Turned next leg of the Active Green Stay Line back down.

Starting to work angle, but not start level, of red line for adding to position…

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun. Buy stops still clustered ~ 11940 Jun

 

Order Changes:

None

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

None actionable.

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun. Buy stops still clustered ~ 11940 Jun

 

Order Changes:

None

 

Comments:

A couple "SR" / more like vapor trail SR lines being approached... will they hold?

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Extending Active Green Stay Line on pretty much same angle.

All red lines just marking time…

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun.

 

Order Changes:

Buy stops moved to ~ 11880 Jun

 

Comments: Picture is already hours old...Not much to say here… thank goodness… don’t have time to say it…

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Flattened the angle of Active Green Stay Line extensions.

Reset lengths of some of the red lines…

Added tentative downsloping trend line closer to price… one way to immediately get Stay Line outside of trendline. Other way is happening on original downsloping trendline via near 0 degree angle of Green StayLine…

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun.

 

Order Changes:

Buy stops moved to ~ 11820 Jun

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

'Recalibrated' lengths etc of Active Green Stay Line and again / some more ... Reset lengths of some of the red lines…

Added yet another tentative downsloping trend line closer to price… one way to immediately get Stay Line outside of trendline. Other way is happening on original downsloping trendline via near 0 degree angle of Green StayLine…

These red trend lines are not actionable at this point...

... StayLines are supposed to be low brainer, not no brainer

 

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun.

 

Order Changes:

None. Buy stops still clustered ~ 11820 Jun

 

Comments:

off topic

Bruce Krasting: SNB Folds

 

Europe's Core Is Burning, As Austria Next On The Implosion Radar; German, France CDS Blow Out | zero hedge

 

Comments:

off topic

How much longer will this spring's 'volatility' party last?

Have a great weekend all.

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Resumed steeper angle of Active Green Stay Line extensions.

Reset lengths of some of the red lines…

Starting to vaporize two of the three downsloping trendlines, but will leave them in for experimentation ( since I don’t know squat about trendlines :helloooo: ) to see if any of them hold a charge…

Added another horizontal line at ~ 10500

 

Position Changes:

None. Still short net 25% allocated ~10980 Jun.

 

Order Changes:

Cancelled Jun Buy stop losses. Set Sep at ~ 11910

 

Comments:

In my intraday trading I have been trading currencies in 100% trending systems only for over a month now. What a great month!

Trading 100% trending systems only is ending today...

 

Comments:

Silver lagging gold… just a comment… :missy:

 

Comments:

Planning to start hedging silver physical position at ~ 22

(not related to this trade btw.)

 

Comments:

Shanghai: 1990 vs. 2010

 

Comments: increasingly off topic

Bruce Krasting: Hungarian Bond Story

 

Your Brain on Computers - Attached to Technology and Paying a Price - NYTimes.com

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Pushed extensions of Active Green Stay Line out more than usual – see comments for why…

Activated upsloping Red line – see comments below …

Reset lengths of some of the red lines…

 

Position Changes:

Went flat Jun at ~ 9970 this AM. – see comments …

 

Order Changes:

Rollover re-entry orders entered arrayed around 9766 Sep

‘Stop losses’ still sitting at ~ 10910 Sep

 

Comments:

Will not be actively browsing and posting very much for a month or so - going on extended vacation / trips. Pushed lines out farther than usual – mostly just as an exercise. Will be around Friday but will probably only come in for a couple of hours in the AM

 

Went flat Jun this AM for rollover (see green ‘dot’ on image) but am waiting to enter short Sep.

Will trail up a stop under Activated upsloping Red lines for that.

In ideal world, would re-enter (and add to) position up around the upper horizontal trend line, but have low expectations that will actually happen. Will only be looking at this every few days. If I post at all it will be just position changes sans images … and then likely catch up images upon my return if I still have any interest in posting this boring spread trade…

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Nothing of note… extending stay lines and entry lines out way ahead of the action

Removed the lower downsloping trendline.

Moved both the other trend lines down closer to April price pivots. No angle changes. Will be interesting to see if the top one has any charge…

 

Position Changes:

None … still flat

 

Order Changes:

Moved re-entry orders from ~ 9766 Sep to > 9930 Sep

 

Comments:

“Just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in”…

 

… seeing price did make it to the upper horizontal line… wasn’t around any charts …

Extending stay lines and entry lines out way ahead of the action just to see how it turns out… extended them even more since taking screenshot... steeper and converging after 7/1

As long as the long in Silver is still performing well or the indexes are not crashing, will really not be too concerned about being actively short the Dow side of the spread….

 

See ya’ll in a couple of weeks… maybe…

Stay Lines are experimental … that’s what makes them appropriate for Trader’s Lab…

but opening the site up now (vs even a couple of weeks ago ) - am not so impressed with the direction it is taking…

 

All the best, zdo

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Active Green StayLine decrementing on down…

All red lines deactivated since short entry

Will synch up line lengths soon…

 

Position Changes:

Short (as of 6/29) at ~ 9930 Sep

 

Order Changes:

StayLine stops down to ~10555 now... started higher...

 

Comments:

Transitioning back into trading after long vacations… early morning tee times (to beat the heat) will still be ‘interfering’ for another couple of weeks then will be back at it … jury is still out on whether I will continue the StayLines thread – I may be the only person benefiting from the experiment …

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Extended Active Green StayLine out at same small angle down

Deactivated red lines coming up at steepest angle in a really long time

Will synch up line lengths more soon…

 

Position Changes:

Short (as of 6/29) at ~ 9930 Sep

 

Order Changes:

Moved StayLine stops down to ~10535 Sep

 

Comments:

None really… prices could still go way up nominally and still be going ‘down’…

Have a great weekend all...

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

Extended Active Green StayLine out at slightly more angle down

Deactivated red lines still coming up at steepest angle in a really long time

 

Position Changes:

None. Still Short at ~ 9930 Sep

 

Order Changes:

Moved StayLine stops down to ~10410 Sep -

 

Comments:

...fixing to get stopped out is the only reason I'm posting

Again… prices could still go way up nominally and still be going ‘down’…

Have a great weekend all...

[zdo 20]

Line Changes:

No active lines at this time...

 

Position Changes:

Flat (as of 7/26)

 

Order Changes:

Sell on stop net 25% allocated at ~10,180 Sep

 

Comments:

One more time… index prices could still go way up nominally and still be going ‘down’…

 

Comments:

Bruce Krasting: "Federal Debt and the Risk of a Financial Crisis" - CBO

 

Comments:

Still long Silver… as mentioned way back in late May / early June really have little interest in being heavy in the short side of this spread unless indexes are crashing…

 

Comments:

Going forward will probably only post pictures when short (or on the verge of it) and StayLines are operative… may not post any at all…

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still Flat (as of 7/26)

 

Comments:

One more time… index prices could still go way up nominally and still be going ‘down’…

 

Comments:

Still long Silver… as mentioned way back in late May / early June really have little interest in being heavy in the short side of this spread unless indexes are crashing…

 

Comments:

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

Scaling into a fairly large position short Yen.

Also applying aggressive methods (and cautious sizing) to trades in Swiss crosses

 

Comments:

Sizing ‘trick’ – this is probably not an original idea (ie I may have read it long ago and then ‘had’ the idea recently) but when running sizing algo’s for futures instead of rounding down (or up) you can just do the fractional part of a contract with Oanda (or other fx broker with continuously variable units / no minimum or maximum).

 

For example, since mid to late July I have been scaling into a short Yen position and when the sizing algo says XX.357 contracts, etc, I can put on XX futures and then the equivalent of .357 contracts with Oanda.

Each of the trades on the attached chart show fractions of a contract ranging from .08 to .95. One trade on Aug 18 was so close to exact number of futures, I didn’t do a fractional with Oanda.

 

Spread for USDJPY is running ~1.0 - 2.0 and costs are limited to paying the spread

Costs are acceptable for me on anything below 3.0 spread (ie doing same ‘trick’ with equivalent of EURJPY futures, but using fx full size currenex units for CADJPY, CHFJPY parts and doing the fractionals with Oanda, etc.)

 

May also come in handy with the sizing of the scaling back out of the trades later…

 

Some may say this much precision in sizing isn't important. Past a certain size in a progressive scaling trade it certainly isn't... but early in the game the precise fractional sizing makes sense to me... However it's not widely applicable - for example, looked at doing fractional parts of Silver contracts with Oanda for the trade this thread is about to balance the sizing issues btwn YM and SI but spread is ridiculous

 

All the best, zdo

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

 

Comments:

Will be legging into short YM side of this spread soon… Will be using these experimental StayLines for stop loss placements…

 

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

Comments: In outright AG and SI trades, per plan, will continue buying to around 24 and then start actively ‘hedging’ whole position…

 

Coomments:

From last post “Also applying aggressive methods (and cautious sizing) to trades in Swiss crosses” Coming to the end of that run for me… short time frame bracket breakout trades have not gone parabolic but have still kicked some butt the last couple of months ++ .

 

Comments:

Still scaling into a fairly large position short Yen. (See attached 3 hour chart) One more entry ‘scheduled’ with fractional contracts and then after that have 5 more entries planned – but fractional sizing doesn’t make any sense for them... will be “Past a certain size”.

btw, I described this as a ‘scale in’ trade, but it’s not by strict definition a real scale in as I would complete buying the planned inventory whether or not it’s going up or down AND I would also stop out well before wipe out.

A ‘real’ scale trade would only buy at progressively lower levels and would have no stop… :helloooo:

 

All the best, zdo

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

 

Comments:

Ditto again… will be legging into short YM side of this spread soon… will be using these experimental StayLines for stop loss placements…

 

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

 

Comments: Re: From last post “In outright AG and SI trades, per plan, will continue buying to around 24 and then start ‘hedging’ whole position…”

Buying is complete. Also close to 100% allocated to AU and derivative positions.

Will now be hedging physical and far out futures Silver positions with stops in close by futures...

 

Comments: Re: : From last post “Still scaling into a fairly large position short Yen. One more entry ‘scheduled’ with fractional contracts and then after that have 5 more entries planned – but fractional sizing doesn’t make any sense for them... will be “Past a certain size”.

Final fractional was filled at ~ 82.70 on 10/06.

First of five planned (non fractional / rounded up/full sized) positions filled 10/13 near 81.00

 

Comments: Also, recently (and cautiously) started to take some long dollar positions (Swissy, Loonies, Eurotrash, etc. however not near first limit orders in British Pound yet…)

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

 

Comments:

Ditto again… will be legging into short YM side of this spread ‘soon’… and will be using these experimental StayLines for stop loss placements…

 

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

 

Comments: Re: From last post “In outright AG and SI trades, per plan, will continue buying to around 24 and then start ‘hedging’ whole position…”

Silver buying is complete. .

Will ‘hedge” physical and far out futures Silver positions with stops in close by futures clustered just under equivalent of 23 cash... and may move that cluster down into (some) 'space' (below 21.75)...

Also, now at 100% allocated to AU and derivative positions. I plan to 'trade' the corrections in AU derivatives and attempt to buy back at lower levels if and when $ rallies instead of doing a 'hedge' strategy in AU like in AG

 

Comments: Still scaling into a fairly large position short Yen. AveragePrice jumping on down now. Next fill would be bigger than size of first 7 buys combined…

 

Comments: 'dat dag blamed bush’ is trying to drive the price of oil up again

 

Comments: I know. What a boring log...

Edited November 5, 2010 by zdo
speling

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

…

 

ditto again

 

 

 

 

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

 

Comment: In outright AG and SI positions I have decided to start taking profits at near dollar increments from $41 up to $50 oz (3 % of net position each time for a total of 30% of whole position). Probably do the equivalent in AU but haven't decided at this point in time...

 

Comment: Yen shorting campaign sort of in limbo. Avg price is just north of 82 USDJPY and if it proceeds upward from here or as low as from around Nov lows, will start scaling out at around 84.90 USDJPY . But - would much prefer to continue buying USDJPY at much lower levels to establish a sub 80 avg price for a longer holding period… we’ll see…

 

Comment: Also of note: (For the first year since I can’t remember when,) I will not be using strict rule seasonals strategies in agricultural,etc futures this year. This has quite a bit of personal significance because since long ago seasonal trading provided the structure and financial support for me to stay in the game long enough to develop and learn how to day trade.

 

Comment: Washington's Blog

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

Still mumbling “soon” on shorting the YM, but simply have had no signals or even hints of setups… a long silver, short dow spread trade is the subject of this thread after all...

 

fwiw and not directly related to this trade…

 

Comments: Have been hedging derivative AG and SI positions. Two successful entries to date - one shown somewhere in another thread. Starting to lift some hedges now…. and plan to add more longs below 24.75 SI and whatever price AU is if and when SI is at 24.75

 

Comment: Yen shorting campaign is still in limbo… doing ok in other pairs (esp EJ) but USDJPY has gone no where…would still prefer original plan of the avg price of whole allocation to end up below 80… we’ll see. ie not predicting anything

 

Comments: re: from 11/05/10 ‘dad blamed bush’ is going to drive the price of oil up again”

That was code. I may never short oil again in the rest of my trading career – just flat or long…

In reality it’s not quite yet, but as a powerful idea / concept, peak oil setting into collective mind

 

Comment: re: “ Also of note: For the first year since I can’t remember when, I will not be using strict rule seasonals strategies in agricultural,etc futures”

All trend trading…so far so good… beyond b.e. :missy:

 

Comment: Several other trades simply didn’t report at the time and now, since I don’t see much usefulness in after the fact reporting, I’ll just not mention at all…

ie Snowboarding is more fun than posting… etc

 

Comment: cryptogon.com » Unverified: Swiss Bank Finally Handed Over Client’s Physical Gold After a Month Delay and Legal Threats

Wonder why the banks have no trouble taking delivery ?? Hey this code bs is fun…:helloooo:

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

 

fwiw and not related to this thread

Comments: Inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions now. Highest orders up to around 35.39 in silver but in gold they are all still stuck below 1378

 

Comment: Yen shorting campaign. Average price now well under 80 on the USDJPY long position… not exactly under ideal conditions (for the Japanee) … wishing them all the best over there.

 

very interesting...

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-03/acs-dot031811.php

Edited March 29, 2011 by zdo
very...

[zdo 20]

Position Changes:

None. Still long Silver… Still Flat YM (since 7/26)

 

Comments:

But not ditto again… soon is now... will be legging into short YM side of this spread over next ten days - preferably into strength... four more years left in this campaign...

 

fwiw and not related to this thread

Comments: Still inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions.

As my boy D. Gartman says ~ "the easy money in this pm move is probably close to over"

[zdo 20]

... still not in as of Friday but have placed entry stops below as a contingency

 

fwiw and not related to this thread

... am now also implementing 3% per dollar move plan in silver from post 43. Trailing stops in 'space' behind gold.

 

In the short yen position, plan is to liquidate around USDJPY 88 (and equivalent in correlated positions).

A small profit is locked in below ie would not and should not let position ever go into red going forward...

True to 'biology' - I think mostly because it is such a huge position, but it is tempting to take profits now... especially the way the USSD is acting

Ya'll have a great hyperinflationary and creeping deflationary weekend.

[zdo 20]

Position Changes: None. Still long Silver, Still trailing entry stops up under YM to go short net 25% allocated.

 

fwiw and not related to this thread

Comments: Still inching arrays of hedging stops up under all other silver and gold positions now. Still taking 3% off the table in AG each ~ dollar move up. (eBay is a great place to sell physical silver now – they pay over spot and also pay shipping… hm)

May hedge everything at 52 and equivalent in AU at that time...

 

Comments: (and definitely not related to this trade…) getting short cotton for a year or so…

[zdo 20]

dark dank dusty cobwebby old thread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

dark dank dusty cobwebby old thread

 

haven't posted the trades ( on mostly the silver side) in a long time...

imo, for something like this, if I don't post every single trade in a very timely fashion - best not to post any at all ... nonetheless

 

... cleaning up and catching up in one line -

this long running campaign is setting up for some heavier allocations.

 

incrementing short entry stops up under Dow side ...

 

... see SI side falling off the ledge more ?

(I've been looking at ~ 24 area for a couple of years now... just looking )