Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dinerotrader

Oil Trading

Recommended Posts

  bathrobe said:
change your stops to stop limit orders instead of stop market orders and you shouldn't have any slippage.

 

Thanks,

 

On entries I use stoplimits.

 

On my exits however, stops are the only logical choice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Guys...I have been trading crude for most of 2010 and it has fast become one of my favorite markets to trade. Here's my two cents on slippage. I typically will see 1-3 ticks of slippage when I do have it. Lately it hasn't been a big issue for me at all. Occasionally I will see a 4-5 tick slip but it is rare. Inventory report wednesday's can get a little interesting but thats about it.

 

My problem with stop limits on entry is that you will miss trades from time to time. When CL starts moving you won't always get your fill with a stop limit. I hate missing moves on CL so I use stop markets for entry and accept the slippage when it comes. As long as the slippage stays around 1-3 ticks I'm ok with that. If it starts to jump to 4-5 ticks on a regular basis then that changes things and I will need to reevaluate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Entering on stop limits can be dangerous as the above poster said - you will basically guarantee fills on all losing trades and guarantee missing some winning trades. Not my cup of tea. I'd prefer to do the opposite.

 

:2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dinerotrader,

 

CL has been very difficult to trade this week. We haven't seen the nice early movement that we have been used to in the past. The moves are either happening premarket are later in the session. This has thrown a wrench in my trade plan because the moves are happening outside of my trade times.

 

I had a feeling we would see a late session breakout today but after the choppy morning I didn't want to risk it. This is one of the first down weeks I have had on CL in a long time. Let's hope things get back to normal next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dino,

Thats why I don't use Time charts. I want to catch the move with volume or price action. I wish I had traded the afternoon, but my system caught it. I only had about a minute and a half to catch it after the short.

clminute.thumb.jpg.16b7d7b8eb924f74e7b304a67a748e1b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Method,

My system is very mechanical. There is the 10% art, in adjusting the entries or stops, but I have a set of rules in my trade plan that can filters out some trades. However, I stick to those rules, which makes it mechanical. If I find that, a particular trade is not working out I can change the plan and add a filter, say taking trades against the trend or not taking re-entry trades. Is that as clear as mud:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  WorldTrader said:
Dino,

I fogot to ask, what time do you trade CL. Just the mornings, all day or the afternoons?

 

I normally only trade pit hours and sometimes pre-market if things are setup up well with S/R levels. I prefer to only trade the first 3 hours of pit but it changes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dino,

Today was great. I was talking to someone who had backtested and studied Crude and he said that on Tuesday 9am-10am was the best time to trade. I think 70% win rate. I missed the first trade as I got ready to trade a little late. I was back from Apple with my new I phone 4. The next trade I adjusted below the swing low so I only got 13 cents and then the last trade hit full 18 cent target. I skipped the second long as the adjustment above the tend line was more than 4 cents.

CLTuesday.thumb.jpg.2ee08483e08e97a033e5e2bc46234f56.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  WorldTrader said:
Dinero,

Today was great. I was talking to someone who had backtested and studied Crude and he said that on Tuesday 9am-10am was the best time to trade. I think 70% win rate.

 

That would depend on your trade setup. You appear to have many things on your chart but not sure what to make of it, how you are entering, and where your entries and exits are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dino,

I will attach a blown up chart with very few lines. There is a major trend line and a trail line. The pluses you see are the entries and the two sets of dots are the money management and full target. All of these numbers are in your data window. Very visual and easy to see targets, stops and entry. If you want I will do a video recap of a day. I hope this helps.

CLDETAILS.thumb.jpg.9a1349ca11a95f351fd19350960580ad.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  WorldTrader said:
Dinero,

I will attach a blown up chart with very few lines. There is a major trend line and a trail line. The pluses you see are the entries and the two sets of dots are the money management and full target. All of these numbers are in your data window. Very visual and easy to see targets, stops and entry. If you want I will do a video recap of a day. I hope this helps.

 

Not a big fan of video. Simple chart annotation of why you entered and exited and how you used your indicators would be fine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

talk about Drunk trading, I have been away for a while and looked at Crude today and it suddenly seems to be a lot less liquid than normal.

In terms of it regularly moved up or down ten cents from the last sale without having and trades. eg; last sale was 76.36, and it was offered 76.26

This seemed to happen a lot today.

It can certainly play havoc with automatic stops etc;

maybe crude is having a few blackout trades and its not remembering to trade at certain levels.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  paulrico said:
Interesting daily chart pattern to monitor in coming days:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=21608&stc=1&d=1277927105

 

Based on the pattern you see, where is the trade setup in your eyes? If you could show it on the chart that would be great. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure,

As we can see from the chart above, we are looking for possible support in the cluster zone 73,74 - 74,10 (end of Wave 4). If the prices are supported in this area then we will find the wave 5 projections as possible upside targets.

 

Slds,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  paulrico said:
Sure,

As we can see from the chart above, we are looking for possible support in the cluster zone 73,74 - 74,10 (end of Wave 4). If the prices are supported in this area then we will find the wave 5 projections as possible upside targets.

 

Slds,

 

Okay I more clearly see what you are seeing. Now the question is how do you get in watching a daily chart. At what point in the (4) area will you buy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, as we don’t know in advance whether or not a particular zone will hold, first I what to see if this area will stall the market and I then look for a (daily) bullish reversal bar.

 

(update: Crude sell off through the cluster zone and the price is now testing second cluster zone, Let´s see how it works!)

sld

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going long in crude oil following the Egypt situation which could result in a low supply from the region and subsequently high oil price .....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.