Oil Trading

[Dinerotrader 10]

There was that lovely, false breakout at significant S/R with a down trendline. What a nice setup. Pretty good economic news to really make the move nice.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Gold and Oil

 

Just curious if anyone uses gold and oil as indicators for the other since they are often very correlated markets.

 

Here is the chart for both gold and oil from part of today. I noted the time 7:25 on both charts which is arizona time, add 3 for ET. Oil was doing a lot of consolidating moves but I was watching gold and it gave me a slight leaning to the long side. I ended up taking a long just before the move and got 62 ticks. Just curious if anyone else uses other markets as an indicator for oil or whatever they trade and if anyone sees any legitimacy to employing such a method.

 

[ochie 10]

Just curious if anyone else uses other markets as an indicator for oil or whatever they trade and if anyone sees any legitimacy to employing such a method.

]

 

I'll post this one since you mentioned whatever someone else may trade, here is an example of inverse correlation between the Treasuries (ZF) and the Equities (NQ).today. BTW, Your Oil - Gold is a good one.

 

 

[patrader 10]

a little sunday nite fun.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Been really busy with oil lately and haven't gotten around to posting much. I wonder when we'll finally stop this dramatic slide downward. The most frustrating part lately has been that oil has made a lot of big moves outside of RTH.

 

[jonbig04 10]

I had the same wedge marked. Buyers sure got hammered after it finally broke down.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Some serious volatility on oil today. I don't currently trade to catch these huge moves so this was not good for me in general.

 

NOTE: Inventory is NOT on Wednesday this week. It comes out on Thursday this week at 11:00 ET.

 

[jonbig04 10]

Just a quick look at crude. Given the lower highs, I would like to play a break down below 71.64, but I will play a break up above 72.95 too, albeit much less aggressively.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Here is how I see the S/R from the past few days action.

 

[jonbig04 10]

Just a quick look at crude. Given the lower highs, I would like to play a break down below 71.64, but I will play a break up above 72.95 too, albeit much less aggressively.

 

Got owned try to play the long. Level got chopped up. I would still like to play a breakdown below 71.64 though.

[SIUYA 11]

bearish chop? There seemed to be a few examples of this in the trading live time thread.

[SIUYA 11]

Just thought I would share.

Ouch. bought back, shorted again, bought back. Running one short......

then there is slippage on the last lot..... 14 ticks..... wow there must have been some sort of inventory number

(makes the idea of backtesting v reality interesting, and sometimes I wonder why I trade through numbers....net net its probably break even)

Never chased the long..... sometimes I hate this job.

 

[WorldTrader 10]

Oil was very choppy this morning. On Invetroy days, I just trade after the news. I had a NG loss and then 2 wins. On CL I had two winners after the news. I hope the pictures come out ok.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

I hope the pictures come out ok.

 

Pictures are unreadable for me. Try attaching them using these instructions.

[SIUYA 11]

Thought I might share this setup I am currently using in Oil.

Its nothing knew, it takes a fair bit of patience and waiting, but it offers a reasonable way of entering (or so it seems to for me )

Basically using a 5 tick range chart (anything else would probably work also if it captures enough to complete a swing)

 

1) wait for what you expect is a buy zone

2) wait for an abc down

3) entry on the next abc up (in this case I pre-empted it and snuck in early)

 

The red lines are the swing high points. I ideally would like to see these get taken out and then to me the down move is complete to let the swing up ride. Exit is whatever trailing stop you care to use.

I hope it is self explanatory.

The worst thing about this setup is the waiting and determining a buy zone (based on previous days bases), also note that there was an initial entry that stopped me out as well.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

That 72.40 level is really getting a lot of rejections on either side. A breakout could get some momentum.

 

[jonbig04 10]

72.40 certainly is a nice flipped area. IMHO there was a little too much acceptance above 72.40 itself. There was a test to 72.59 and one to 72.50. I was hoping we would get another perfect rejection at 72.40 today, then I could try to a BO above it tomorrow or tonight. But alas the level has been all violated up by after hours trading. Just my two cents.

 

I like a breakout below 70.75 personally. I had qualms about it because there was that probe down to 70.63. But the other 3 tests of the level have all caused major reactions in price and were all within 1 or 2 ticks from each other. That along with the fact that 70.75 was a pretty major area during the end of last month. And of course the larger trend being down (at least how I see it) makes me much more aggressive in pursuing it.

 

I actually decided to be aggressive and short a break below the level this morning. Price came within 3 ticks of my sell stop before again finding support and rallying all the way back up. Specific S/R levels FTW! With an ill defined S/R zone that wouldn't have been possible...or at least not very likely.

[WorldTrader 10]

So, Siuya,

You don't use anyting other than price action and swings high and low? I love range bars on CL I use range of 6, but I have some other indicators. I will try and post a better picture from my trading tomorrow. Let's see if we can have our own race here.

[jonbig04 10]

Possible CL trade. Just possible.

 

[WorldTrader 10]

Thanks for this thread!

I trade CL every day. Yesterday was tight and I had two very small winners. Then it finally broke above 76 with some action. This was my final trade. My trade plan is two wins and positive, then I am done. Today, on inventory day I wait till after the news then trade. I might take one before 9am if we get some good price action off the 8:30 news. Will let you know later.

http://im1.shutterfly.com/media/47a0d837b3127ccefa355d1cfc6900000030O08EbtmjVq3Zg9vPhY/cC/f%3D0/ps%3D50/r%3D0/rx%3D550/ry%3D400/

 

Sorry about the picture. I will read up on how to post one better.

Edited June 16, 2010 by WorldTrader
picture not so good

[brownsfan019 17]

 

Sorry about the picture. I will read up on how to post one better.

 

How to post chart

 

That should walk you through how to post chart in thread.

[jonbig04 10]

[neutral 10]

What is your experience on slippage on stop loss orders for real $ oiltrades?

 

Im currently getting to know oil a little bid better on a simulator and Im experiencing

an average slippage of about 1,3 cent.

 

On the simulator, I havent experienced a big olispike against me yet.

So for the time beeing I have set my long term expectation for slippage on stoporders to 1,5cents.

 

I this in your view a reasonable estimate for real $ trades?

[neutral 10]

What are you guys paying for an roundturn of 1 CL oil contract

 

Ib, my current broker asks 4.62 for a roundturn.

[bathrobe 10]

What is your experience on slippage on stop loss orders for real $ oiltrades?

 

Im currently getting to know oil a little bid better on a simulator and Im experiencing

an average slippage of about 1,3 cent.

 

On the simulator, I havent experienced a big olispike against me yet.

So for the time beeing I have set my long term expectation for slippage on stoporders to 1,5cents.

 

I this in your view a reasonable estimate for real $ trades?

 

change your stops to stop limit orders instead of stop market orders and you shouldn't have any slippage.