Week 50

[torero 10]

I hope tex doesn't mind me taking the lead in opening this thread. I've already took a long this morning, following the Tokyo opening with a gap down. It just came back to near last session's high. Looking like a pullback from most recent high, I took a long here. Target is 9840 or higher, depending on how price react to that area.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

I hope tex doesn't mind me taking the lead in opening this thread.

 

No, not in the least! It's not my thread, anyone's more than welcome to kick it off!!

 

I didn't see the 'long' this morning torero. Looked like a slight downside bias to me leading into London?

 

Didn't take the short either, as we're not convinced this $ decline is done yet. I have interim support @ 1.97 on the hourly, & given the pace in which price has travelled past week or so, a little "range trading" wouldn't be out of the question ahead of this weeks NFP print?

 

Sure, the upside still carries the weight on this instrument - and I wouldn't expect too much heavy selling ahead of Friday, merely range containment and/or mild profit paring.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Little in the way of data today to drive prices, the only noteworthy item being Mike Moskow of the Chicago Fed, jawboning on CNBC @ 9.00am EST.

 

I guess much of the early week activity will revolve around technical jostling.

 

Long as 9650 remains protected, all should be well for the $ Bears. 9550 is now secondary support at these levels with decent demand lurking back there from swing stops.

 

[torero 10]

Stopped out. The gap down was a small clue but wasn't convinced enough since it filled it up quickly. But no problem at all, saw my signal and took it. Been fatten up like a Thanksgiving turkey so maybe market is telling me to digest a bit before another binge begins. I agree, I'm still lurking for longs until market says it's over. I'll just wait for it to find a comfortable spot and lounge and once it's ready, I'll get in.

 

 

 

I've been having trouble getting your pivot #s to match mine. What session times do you set?

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

I've been having trouble getting your pivot #s to match mine. What session times do you set?

 

 

I take the 35 & 50% levels from the NY close @ 5.00pm EST.

 

The only times we'll adjust those % guides are: if/when prices begin to extend their "normal" range parameters.

 

But for most of this year, normal (inside) range activity has contained prices sufficiently enough for us to look for rebounds away from those 35-50% barriers.

 

On another note, we've yet to experience any meaningful retracement activity on this current leg up. Worth keeping your Fib guides plotted on the swings to assist any aggressive reversal behaviour as & when prices get spooked at these lofty heights.

 

It won't take much for emotive reaction to accellerate once folks begin to get a little freaked with the buck stretched to it's limits. Often, all it takes is a small displeasure in the "expected" data to unravel prices. Once that occurs, human emotion takes over & all hell breaks loose.

 

I usually keep the 240m chart highlighted with the near term (price) s&r levels + appropriate Fibs plotted to help guide potential stall area's...that way, I can then drill down to smaller timeframes & look for relevant lower top/higher bottom activity for triggers.

 

[torero 10]

I went up the timeframe to 60min and saw this. Very interesting indeed. I may rely on this timeframe to keep it long for now. NY may have to decide which way to go.

 

[torero 10]

Saw this bull flag formation this morning. And finally it made a breakout and pullback. Going long here and see what happens.

 

 

[torero 10]

Wise as ever, tex. I'm going to move up a higher frame to stay focused determine the plays from there. I got stopped out from the 15min bull flag but evidently law of the higher frame is dictating the moves, not the patterns in the smaller frames like the previous times. Once again, you've shined with your wisdom

 

reaver,

 

Attached is the fib levels tex and I use

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hey guys!

 

Yeah, it's a bit choppy this week terero. We haven't initiated any fresh (intraday) positions thus far, preferring to wait till we see how this consolidation phase plays out on Cable & the Franc.

 

The 4hr triangle is still cutting out (Cable), which looks like it could well break farther North. But again, we'd prefer to wait for the apex to shake out. This could well play out into late week now with Friday's NFP the likely catalyst to continued momentum should it print to the $ negative.

 

Reaver:

 

I don't really plot Fibs on anything lower than a 240m frame. Obviously folks can refer to whichever timeframe they wish, but personally I've never found the smaller timeframe % levels to be particularly accurate or relevant.

 

I'm more interested in whether a Big Fib line confluences a hard (price based) s&r zone or a Round Number (00-50) than I am the actual Fib level. If I get one or more price based confluences, then that zone is of definite interest.

 

One of our colleagues is closely observing the 14EMA on the 240m Cable chart. If you plot it, you'll see what I mean. It's managed to hold it's close against that trend marker since it broke up thru 8850.

 

Any prolonged close below it, especially should the NFP's offer the buck a temp kicker, will be a decent buffer as to the potential strength of Cable in the short term

 

Mov Averages, in a trending phase, are certainly as good as any other price aid for offering a heads up. As long as they're observed via the longer timeframes & utilized correctly.

 

Anyhow, hope the comments help!

[torero 10]

Good advice, tex, on the Fib level only valid in 240 or higher. I'll keep that in mind. Yes, been staying out after 2 false starts, so I'm staying flat now until 9650 nears.

[Reaver 10]

Thanks Texxas,

that helped alot!

[torero 10]

Looks like that bounce right off the 9676 perfectly. It's amazing how fast it recovered from the support. Since I missed this boat, let's if the next boat comes around.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

One of our colleagues is closely observing the 14EMA on the 240m Cable chart. If you plot it, you'll see what I mean. It's managed to hold it's close against that trend marker since it broke up thru 8850.

 

Any prolonged close below it, especially should the NFP's offer the buck a temp kicker, will be a decent buffer as to the potential strength of Cable in the short term

 

Mov Averages, in a trending phase, are certainly as good as any other price aid for offering a heads up. As long as they're observed via the longer timeframes & utilized correctly.

 

 

Not sure whether anyone here observes or uses moving averages in their trading? Most of the mainstream trade sites out there appear to be infested with mov avg crossovers on various timeframes, with no apparent understanding or appreciation of how to filter/maximize their usage.

 

Continual "blind triggering" of any price aid is a sure fire route to the poor house (especially mov averages), & like any other form of price aid activity, a good understanding of it's weakness/strength capabilities is essential.

 

I mentioned y'day one of our colleagues has been plotting the 14EMA on the 240m frame (a favored math reading on this swing frame) during this aggressive shunt up on the Cable.

 

He had 2 options as price began threatening this consolidation zone.

 

1) He could have extracted some more profit from the swing position ahead of Friday's NFP data & focus on his trailing stops into weeks end...or

 

2) Run a 'jobbing' trade (a counter short) on an intraday basis to soak up any potential move back to his 1st line trailing stops before considering legging out on the swinger. Thus balancing out the p/l to ensure this temp top up at 9850 wasn't a critical top?

 

He elected to execute the latter. With NFP so close, he doesn't want to compromize the profits on this leg should the Payrolls come in negative for the buck. If the data prints $ negative, we should get another fierce leg down on the buck & punch prices thru this consolidation top.

 

If prices roll over here, he can calmly close out further swing positions and/or close out fully & reverse tack.

 

The 240m chart highlights the break of the 14EMA line off the 12.00 London bar. The preceding neutral bar prints were telling him price was struggling up here & a potential (temporary?) 'topping out' was unfolding.

 

 

 

By drilling down to the 15m frame, he can guage the pullback strength off the 4hr low bar print & assess the potential of either partially encashing/running a short-term contra position. This now offers him total control on the primary swing position. It's not forcing him into a panic scenario wondering whether this consolidation top is a genuine "rollover" or simply a profit taking/temp exhaustive phase in the overall Cable Bull run.

 

If prices move back to his intraday entry, he can fold at the b/e & remain positioned 'long' the move on the remainder of his trades. If it continues down thru 1.97+ he can ride it & adjust his lower trailing stops to capture a "double profit" scenario.

 

The point being: whichever indicator/price aid mechanism you choose to employ, don't trade it blindly...look for the pullback or test of a price bust area to ensure you're not being lulled into a trap!

 

Hope it helps sparks an idea or two as to how folks might incorporate indicators/price aids into their arsenal?

 

[cowpip 10]

That is excellent money management, texxas. Without this kind of money management, accounts are surely more prone to bleed unnecessarily.

 

Excellent post! Thanks.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Cheers Cary!

 

It's just one option. This type of activity works best when prices are trucking along aggressively in a trend.

 

It's certainly not financially productive to bolt it on when prices are contained inside >150 pip or so ranges. Otherwise it's likely to result in a cancelling out scenario. Not to mention ramping up comms/costs etc.

 

It really comes into it's own when you've scaled out of your 1st profit leg & maybe re-adjusted stops to protect the initial entry?

 

It then saves diluting the profit of the original entry by scaling out. Sure, scaling/compounding is still a sensible option, as we never really know how far a move is gonna run.

 

But when prices ramp up/down aggressively & you trail it to sensible swing zones, jobbing can satisfy the "greed/fear" concerns.

 

All it really does is buy the trader time. Sufficient time in which to assess the price action moving away from a potential "turn" against the trend.

 

Eventually of course a decision needs to made. But rather than instigate a knee-jerk reaction (only for price to fake out the weak hands before re-engaging the original directional move), it affords a little more observation time!!

[torero 10]

That's excellent observation and advice. I'm sitting tight today, not sure which way the market wants to go just yet now that 9650 is blown but I'm not convinced just yet.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yeah, they're treading cautiously ahead of Friday by the looks.

 

The UK printed a softer than anticipated Industrial Production number earlier this morning & there's obviously pockets of profit taking unfolding this week too.

 

As you say, it's not particularly convincing nor is it going to worry the Bears too much either at these levels.

 

It's shyed away from this 1st (23.6%) Fib above the 1.96 round number pretty smartly, which undoubtedly equates to continuing range trading in front of the Payrolls.

 

It's playing a game of bluff with the nervy traders trailing tight stops at the mo... 'shake, shake, shake'

 

[torero 10]

Looks like we're near or at 21.4% on 240min frame. Let's see if this will make a double-bottom to make sure this is good support. A bullish pennant is still at work and I'm still flat. It's also curious to note that the opposing pattern is the inverted cup-and-handle pattern at play as well. Hmmmm, ambiguous isn't it?

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

A quiet week leads us into one of the months most volatile data prints. Cable has held it's footing quite comfortably during this profit paring phase, & continues to flirt with it's 1st pullback Fib off the larger swing run above this 1.96 big fugure.

 

The 2 near term support zones (on the 4hr chart below) are clear initial targets for the ($) Bulls should the Payrolls offer an excuse to run prices up on the buck.

 

No real danger as yet for $ shorts, as prices have at least another 2.5 cents to shift (back to the 50% zone) in order to honor a satisfactory retrace/pullback point on the swing chart.

 

Volumes, as expected, are on the light side leading into 8.30 EST. Some decent guages now exist both North & South of this level into the day's close - should be an interesting NY session.