Texas Hold 'em in Casino Royale

[torero 10]

I just saw the latest Bond movie and I was very impressed with the elaborate coverage of the poker game in the plot. Since I'm a newbie at poker, I had a few questions about the scenarios and of course about facts about poker.

 

In poker, what percentage play more an important role: reading the player or ability to calculate the probability that the hand is better than the opponent?

 

As for the reading the opponents' habits and movements to discover his weakness, if someone who can read the opponent but has little knowledge about probability in getting different outcomes? Are there tricks to not let the opponent read you like a book?

 

This is related to trading when the player says "All In". Technically in trading only newbies do this, but in poker this is common? Or are there many hands where the player do not have to resort to "All In"?

 

The last piece I thought was when Bond blew out his account, his EGO was at fault (just like in trading), does this apply to poker as well? Does ego part of bluffing? Don't know how it all fits in.

[Soultrader 12]

Glad you brought this up Torero . I myself also saw the new James Bond movie a week ago.

 

Here are some of the secrets of poker. You can not say that cards do not matter. But the ability to read your opponent is a vital key to success. Observation is a must... within 30 minutes one should clearly understand the style of their opponent. Does he like to bluff? Does he bet small when he catches a card on the flop? Does he like to reraise often? Does he fish for the river? Is he reckless and will call anything?

 

Once you understand your opponents style, the next step is to come up with strategies that can exploit his style. If he likes to trap, play your hands strong preflop but play carefully after the flop. If he likes to reraise, trap him. If he likes to play recklessly, wait for a decent hand and then bust him in one hand. These are some of the things I keep in mind when playing.

 

I play more online now which is why I focus more on the psychology of the opponent and try to identify his style through the way he bets. On the tables, however, I always always watch my opponent look at his cards first before looking at mine. Watch the opponents eyes... they say alot. Does his become silent on a good hand? Does he look down? Why did he take a deeper drag of his cigarette? Why is he taking longer than usual to place a bet? Did he just twitch? And on and on....

 

One trick to avoid the opponent from reading you is to act unpredictable. Mix poker styles.. bluff, play tight, play strong, and sometimes even show weakness. All you need is one hand that can take your opponent down completely. One of my favorite quotes from the poker movie "Rounders" is, "Throw in your cards the moment you know you cant win. Fold your hands."

 

The question of "All In"

 

I try to avoid an all-in situation as much as possible. My odds of winning are far better grinding my chips rather than gambling even with a 60% favorite. However, all-in is a must in poker. In a heads up tournament, all-in is a powerful move. Another situation I will usually go all-in is preflop when holding pocket Kings or Aces. If your opponent is holding an Ace-Jack, Ace-Queen preflop.... why give him the chance to catch an ace? If youre holding AA.... I never allow my opponent to catch a lucky 2 pair. Another situation would be on the turn when you know your opponent is fishing for a river. All-in equals pressure. An all-in bluff can be used depending on the cards on the table and if your opponent shows weakness. But generally speaking, my poker style is a pure grinder... not a gambler.

 

Playing on a Tilt

 

In many tournaments, players try to go at each other with EGO. I do not play like this... I play to make money and not to feel good about myself. I usually catch these ego mania type players... they love to raise with nothing and will reraise you with nothing. I love making them look like a fool by calling with a low pair or Ace high.

 

A string of losses and players can go on a tilt. Now tilt is your worse enemy. Playing on a tilt is the same thing as emotional trading. You are no longer trying to make money... but instead you are hoping to win a huge pot. Players will often call with rags (crap cards) or call all-ins to fish for the river card. Most of them go home broke.

 

One last quote from Rounders, "Some players forget the cardinal rule of poker.... leaving no outs."

[torero 10]

Excellent insight James. So how does one know he's up against a good if not great poker player in front of him? Are there that many EGOs walking around in tournaments? Are they easy victims like in trading?

 

I have watched a poker show late night after CNBC is done with their business programs. It's very interesting because it shows the online poker and there's an expert analyzing and commenting on each game. It's good learning experience I think. The expert can give analysis on who would be the likely candidate to move to the next round.

 

I'm starting to get hooked. Any books to recommend? I'm going to have to cash out my gift certificate soon!

[Soultrader 12]

Excellent insight James. So how does one know he's up against a good if not great poker player in front of him? Are there that many EGOs walking around in tournaments? Are they easy victims like in trading?

 

I have watched a poker show late night after CNBC is done with their business programs. It's very interesting because it shows the online poker and there's an expert analyzing and commenting on each game. It's good learning experience I think. The expert can give analysis on who would be the likely candidate to move to the next round.

 

I'm starting to get hooked. Any books to recommend? I'm going to have to cash out my gift certificate soon!

 

Watch out for the quiet ones with the big stack. They know how to sit tight and win monster pots. Also watch out for the ones that appear reckless but are actually just setting you up. They like to frustrate their opponents and when their shots comes they will take it all.

 

On any table you sit, watch out for the big stacks and be quick to know who you plan to take money from. A stack can be built faster by preying on the weaker players.

 

The easiest players by far are players on a tilt or those who are frustrated. I mean.. they are so pissed off that they will just throw their money away. Emotions is the worse enemy.

 

Surprisingly I have never read a single book on poker. I started playing when I was around 10. At first it was the arcade poker games which turned into friendly poker game betting cigerettes. Soon it was betting a little money, going to poker games, going to casinos, and then running a poker room in the basement.

 

Alot of my poker is pure intuition. I can figure out my opponents hands a good amount of times. Just like trading, I dont think poker is something that can be learned through a book. It requires years and years of experience. Im pretty sure the perecentage of winning poker players (who actually make a living off poker) are also similar to the 5% trading estimate.

[torero 10]

If you have a table of 4-6 players, so how do target one specific weak player?

[torero 10]

I found this very interesting page on Wikipedia on probabilities on outcomes in Texas Hold 'em.

 

Poker probability (Texas hold 'em) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

What are the chances of a full house and a flush happen on the same game? I didn't think this is unlikely in one game.

[Soultrader 12]

If you have a table of 4-6 players, so how do target one specific weak player?

 

I play alot of 6 player tournaments in which the payouts only go out to 1st and 2nd place. The less people in the game, the easier poker gets. This is because it becomes a game of pure skill.

 

I dont like to push aggressively in the beginning in a 6 person game. Instead, I let the other players make all the mistakes. There are many occasions in which 2-3 players will get eliminated before I play a single hand. If you can double up early, this is great. Because all you have to do now is to protect your chips and bully the small stacks. In a tournament, the size of your chips mean everything.

 

If you are catching a string of cold cards, I just sit tight and fold most of my hands. By the time there is 2-3 players left, I will start pushing..... a small table is my bread and butter.

 

You'll notice early in the game the players who keep limping in the blinds without raising. These players are the weak players. They love playing every single hand. I also, take notes on every player I encounter (online as well). I'll rank them from a scale of 1-10 and jot down some of their poker styles.

[torero 10]

It's tough to read everyone since there are so many on the table and so many styles. It's like trading 5 different instruments at once. I can't multi-task anymore.

[Soultrader 12]

Its sort of like reading tape, internals, different sectors, volume, etc... and trying to make sense out of it all.

 

Not that hard.. just need to get used to playing. The only thing I truly hate about poker is the bunch of amateurs who gamble with a 10-18% chance of winning and catching the card on the river.

 

It happens... hence poker. Trading is a little more skill rather than luck.

[torero 10]

This is where poker and trading rules become different. In trading, we don't need to do "ALL IN" to stay in the game. In poker, if this happens and I've noticed toward the end of the match when there are maybe 2-3 players left, there tend to be ALL IN showdowns. If I fold too often and resisting putting ALL IN to match this bluff or cards, I'd get wiped out through losing it slowly right?

[Soultrader 12]

When the table gets smaller in a tournament, all-ins are fairly common. It really becomes a game of pyschology and balls. Alot of professional poker players can not handle the emotional swings of no-limit texas holdem. Therefore they may choose to play limit holdem or other poker related games like omaha or stud.

 

In a small table or a heads up battle, folding too much is a sure way to lose. You need to be agressive and make absolutely no errors. One error can cost you the entire match in heads up. Take a stab at the right moments if you sense weakness but be careful of the traps.

 

Its definitely not an easy game to play.