MP and Electronics Trading

[TradeRunner 10]

...more things to make you go hmm!

 

"I have a roulette "system" that usually wins. Everybody says there is no such thing, but I can go to a casino and can usually walk away ahead. That's the key: "walk away ahead". I discovered that my methodology in roulette results in cyclical swings a lot of the time. I play for fun, not money, as there is no real edge. But how I win is that when the cyclical swing is in my favour and I'm ahead, I stop as a winner."

 

EL thinks he can win at roulette by stopping when he is ahead. So his idea is that playing roulette in multiple sittings is somehow different to playing it in one continuous session. How does this work? Your "luck" somehow resets after a break! I don't think EL has understood the fixed probabilities of roulette.

 

Does anyone else thinks EL's trading entries are a little bit too perfect?

[TheDude 10]

...more things to make you go hmm!

 

"I have a roulette "system" that usually wins. Everybody says there is no such thing, but I can go to a casino and can usually walk away ahead. That's the key: "walk away ahead". I discovered that my methodology in roulette results in cyclical swings a lot of the time. I play for fun, not money, as there is no real edge. But how I win is that when the cyclical swing is in my favour and I'm ahead, I stop as a winner."

 

EL thinks he can win at roulette by stopping when he is ahead. So his idea is that playing roulette in multiple sittings is somehow different to playing it in one continuous session. How does this work? Your "luck" somehow resets after a break! I don't think EL has understood the fixed probabilities of roulette.

 

Does anyone else thinks EL's trading entries are a little bit too perfect?

 

I think you're missing the point a bit here.

 

EL states quite clearly about roulette THERE IS NO REAL EDGE. So, what he does it seems to me is walk away when he's up, come back with a reduced stake. Simple. Again, quoting I PLAY FOR FUN, NOT MONEY. What he seems to be doing is taking his profit in a trend, then walking away. However in your analogy, you seem to compare the strategy to buying and holding in a never ending market fluctuating/roulette in a casino that never closes. Would you agree?

 

I'd suggest that if you are suspicious of someone's success, then you probably have doubts about your own ability and get a bit twisted seeing others do it.

 

Here's the secret: Hard work, more hard work, and then some more hard work. Easy when you know how!

[bigsnack 10]

His entries are great, and he tends to focus on the winners more than the losers, but what trader wouldn't? Whether or not you believe that EL is for real, he has also posted results of some people that took his training, and they were also showing very promising win rates and performance.

 

This is exactly why so often people that do well in this industry avoid these forums. One day the boredom or the loneliness or whatever gives them the urge to share. Eventually the thread they create turns into a collection of attacks on their methodology or their whether or not they are for real, and the people that believe in their system begin communicating with the original poster via IM. Seeing the futility of the open forum, a private room is created for the people who actually want to try and learn something, and when the open forum gets wind of it they cry foul.

 

If you have a winning system, I guarantee you could post nearly 100% of your methodology with a blotter of your daily results, and you would get more shit for it than praise. It must be ingrained in human nature. My opinion, of course

[TradeRunner 10]

Yes I understand he plays just for fun.

 

He does say "there is no real edge" but that conflicts "a system that usually wins". Actually not sure what he means here - is he saying that sometimes he walks away from the table a winner (just for that session) or that he is a roulette winner long term?

 

I didn't make an analogy I was just pointing out that splitting the sessions up doesn't make any difference to the probability of winning at roulette. You can walk away a winner from roulette and if you never play roulette again then you will be a long term roulette winner, but if you continue to play you will eventually lose over the long term.

 

I'd suggest that if you are suspicious of someone's success, then you probably have doubts about your own ability and get a bit twisted seeing others do it.

 

Yes I definitely have doubts about my own ability.

 

"a bit twisted seeing others do it" not really. I enjoy his blog and have read all of it but must admit to being a bit turned off lately when I see perfect pullback entries. I think he has shown losing trades but don't think he has ever discussed his losing days (he must have some losing days?)

[TradeRunner 10]

His entries are great, and he tends to focus on the winners more than the losers, but what trader wouldn't?

 

A trader who wants to represent a true picture of day trading

A trader who thinks that his losing trades are just as interesting as his wining trades

 

what trader wouldn't want to focus on his losing traders?

 

A trader who wants to sell something and losing trades are a bad advert.

A trader that is deluding themselves, others or both.

A trader who wants to protect their ego

(and I'm not specifically accusing EL of any of these, just iterating some reasons not to focus on losing trades)

 

This is exactly why so often people that do well in this industry avoid these forums. One day the boredom or the loneliness or whatever gives them the urge to share. Eventually the thread they create turns into a collection of attacks on their methodology or their whether or not they are for real, and the people that believe in their system begin communicating with the original poster via IM. Seeing the futility of the open forum, a private room is created for the people who actually want to try and learn something, and when the open forum gets wind of it they cry foul.

 

This is a forum for discussion and EL's blog is public and so is fair game for good and bad comments. EL used to work LIFFE's trading floor so I'm sure his skin is very thick! I'm not giving him sh*t just pointing out that his representation of trading is very rosy.

[TradeRunner 10]

Whether or not you believe that EL is for real, he has also posted results of some people that took his training, and they were also showing very promising win rates and performance.

 

I would love to here some feedback on his training course/material. So come on EL students don't leave him hanging!

[Tams 20]

I must say I have been a little disappointed with the EL blog.

 

When I first found it I was very happy to see what I thought was a true breath of fresh air.

 

Unfortunately it has developed into the usual mentoring service.

 

Now in itself I suppose you shouldn't ever be able to get something for nothing, but I think it has been the timing that has got me. Everything seems to have been planned right to the day, slowly tempting people in.

 

What concerns me is for someone who has been trading for so long, with such a solid method, why do the indicators change - and markets that are traded are very variable. Lastly has there ever been a losing day?

 

Probably I'm unfair - but it's made me wonder once again if there really is anyone out there actually trading profitably.

 

he is doing all these to promote his US$5,000 course

[beyondMP 10]

He now seems to be setting the next round of suckers. He is starting to talk up "Hybrid Trading". Don't be surprised if he starts to offer the next round of training featuring it.

[TheDude 10]

Yes I understand he plays just for fun.

 

He does say "there is no real edge" but that conflicts "a system that usually wins". Actually not sure what he means here - is he saying that sometimes he walks away from the table a winner (just for that session) or that he is a roulette winner long term?

 

I didn't make an analogy I was just pointing out that splitting the sessions up doesn't make any difference to the probability of winning at roulette. You can walk away a winner from roulette and if you never play roulette again then you will be a long term roulette winner, but if you continue to play you will eventually lose over the long term.

 

 

 

Yes I definitely have doubts about my own ability.

 

 

 

 

"a bit twisted seeing others do it" not really. I enjoy his blog and have read all of it but must admit to being a bit turned off lately when I see perfect pullback entries. I think he has shown losing trades but don't think he has ever discussed his losing days (he must have some losing days?)

 

Well, perhaps the DVD's explain all!!

 

Personally, I think there is merit in using the range bars, and I can see how they would help in timing when combined with his other tools. I can see why he does it, and the advantage of them, but for me, I just cant work with them. I've been using time bars for so long now, it would take a long time to get used to range bars until they are 2nd nature.

 

Thats a sign of 'owning' something. I own time bars, he owns range bars.

 

Lets not forget either, he's been doing this for a very long time.

 

**********

 

 

I agree with your later points about losing trades. Why they were entered and what, if anything was overlooked that could have suggested a loser was on the way. Of course, some trades just lose plain and simple. We've all had them. Everything looks fine, except we oversaw Mr Yikamoota in Tokyo decided to sell 20000 lots just as we were going long - as is his tradition after eating a fried cat sandwich for lunch (with extra wasabi)

Edited January 31, 2011 by TheDude

[TradeRunner 10]

Well, perhaps the DVD's explain all!!

 

Personally, I think there is merit in using the range bars, and I can see how they would help in timing when combined with his other tools. I can see why he does it, and the advantage of them, but for me, I just cant work with them. I've been using time bars for so long now, it would take a long time to get used to range bars until they are 2nd nature.

 

Thats a sign of 'owning' something. I own time bars, he owns range bars.

 

Lets not forget either, he's been doing this for a very long time.

 

Well perhaps they do - I will leave it to others to find out.

 

I use range bars because I find they are good at squashing down time and that helps me see the support/resistance levels where I might want to trade and a 10s - 1minute chart to fine tune my entry at those levels. So I guess you could say I own range and time bars:)

 

Like you say you have own your system.

[TradeRunner 10]

Hi electroniclocal

 

Do you ever have losing days?

Have you had a losing day since you started documenting your trades on your blog? If so could you identify that day so that I can read your blog entry?

 

Thanks

 

TradeRunner

[electroniclocal 10]

Hi electroniclocal

 

Do you ever have losing days?

Have you had a losing day since you started documenting your trades on your blog? If so could you identify that day so that I can read your blog entry?

 

Thanks

 

TradeRunner

 

Hi TradeRunner, read the blog tonight for your answer.

[TheDude 10]

Nice blog post EL. So you are human after all!!

 

I see what you mean about focusing on the positive, however I'd rather learn from someone elses mistakes than make them myself (wink)

 

As you say, the important thing is to admit when you're on the wrong side and get out ASAP keeping the loss small - as your old broker chum advised. Thats the difference between a bad trade being a cost of doing business, and a problem - to me anyway.

 

Thanks for all the effort you've put into the blog.

[TradeRunner 10]

Hi TradeRunner, read the blog tonight for your answer.

 

Thanks for the reply on the blog.

 

I would like to see more of a balance between your winning and losing trades after all how you deal with your losers is an important part of the trading equation isn't it? It will be interesting to see how many of your readers agree.

 

Do you show all the losing trades in a sequence? That isn't the impression that I have got - maybe I haven't paid close enough attention.

 

I personally don't have a problem with you selling your DVD and time. Don Miller does a similar thing however I think his blog presents a more "warts and all" view of trading.

 

TradeRunner