Cory2679's Log

[blueberrycake 10]

 

My pledge...to myself, to the people who know me, to the readers at TL, to whomever...is to continue on this path and not veer from it in any way. This will allow me to devote all of my mental energy to the Thales Chart Method and not waste it on other things.

 

I hope you don't mind my saying it, but it seems like a risky thing to devote yourself to trading a method that someone posts on the internet. Maybe Thalestrader is a great trader and everything that he said is exactly right. Or maybe he is not a successful trader at all, just someone whose online persona is very different from who he really is. It's simply impossible to know one way or another.

 

If you believe that there is merit to his method, why not download a few years worth of historical data and backtest thoroughly in replay mode? That should both help you refine the methodology and gain additional confidence in it without risking real money.

 

I've personally read through the Thalestrader thread and have enjoyed it. I suspect that he is probably a real trader (though I obviously don't know). That being said, based on my personal experience in trading, I think there is far more discretion involved in how he decides which setups to take and which to skip than many readers of his thread suspect.

 

-bbc

[pa18 10]

It's Been a Year

 

It's been about a year since I joined Traders Laboratory and first discovered thalestrader's "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread...and what I'll call the Thales Chart Method. Over the past 50 weeks or so, I have been desperately trying to "master" the approach and "break out" as a trader. Thus far, I have experienced admittedly lackluster success overall. I have had periods of fairly consistent success, but the year has been a roller-coaster ride.

 

Needless to say, I have had periods of great discouragement...almost to the point of giving up...a state of mind that alone is probably a great hindrance to my success.

 

I decided to take a hard look at where I am, where I've been, and where to go from here. I obviously don't have forever to master this, so I need to use the time I have left as efficiently and productively as possible.

 

I've come to the conclusion that most of the problems I've been having aren’t with the mechanics of the approach, but with things extraneous to the approach.

 

Where I've Been

 

When I first began my Thales Chart Method apprenticeship, I think I caught on pretty well. I was getting positive feedback and I was optimistic.

 

However, after a short while I began to taint the "purity" of the approach and started having problems with my trading...

 

I sim-traded for a very short while, then went live with a futures account and suffered emotionally because of the large size one is forced to trade with futures...I was too new to the approach (and too poor) to jump in with that size.

 

Later, I decided to try to mimic Thales's daughter by trading a small spot forex account. However, I messed up again...after hearing stories that she had turned a $25 account into $10K in such and such amount of time, I had the brilliant idea to start with $250 so that I would turn it into $100K in such and such amount of time. The difference is that $25 is such a small amount of money that it can be lost and replaced without a problem...which made it not unreasonable for Thales's daughter to take on the amount of “risk” she did in the beginning (trading even 1 microlot with a $25 account can be a relatively hefty position size). But, I wasn't thinking about that...and I went on to eventually risking about 20% per trade with that $250 account! I'm sure I don't have to tell you how that went (I now risk no more than 2%!).

 

It gets worse...I later attempted the same thing with a $500 account! I didn't learn my lesson and traded risking 20% on a $500 account!! I'm a little embarrassed to even be typing this.

 

And the story goes on like this...continuously changing what size I'm trading, how much I'm risking, what broker I'm using, what hours I’m trading, my "plan" for scaling up to "full size," blah blah blah. This has gone on now for a year!

 

I'll admit...from time to time I've lost sight of the forest for focusing too much on the trees...essentially focusing on 123's in isolation from S/R and context...but this is something that has happened, I've realized, and then gotten back on track...this is not what has primarily been holding me back, in my opinion.

 

My most recent hiccup comes from trying to apply Thales's approach to very fast timeframes...my logic being that if there is such and such opportunity on a 15 minute chart, then there must be 15 times the opportunity on a 1 minute chart! However, Thales advocates trying to identify and trade the main intraday swing (for daytrading). I won't go into details here, but a discussion about this topic began here.

 

Don't get me wrong...it's not like I've gotten absolutely nowhere...I think I've managed to sharpen my focus and attack some over the year.

 

Where I Am

 

After evaluating the problems I've been having, I'm now trying to clear my mind of all the muck, and take a fresh, uninhibited try at the Thales Chart Method.

 

Where I'm Going

 

Essentially, I'm now going to follow the plan Thales laid out here, plain and simple:

 

 

 

One very minor change that I’m making to his plan is that rather than four weeks in a row of 50+ net ticks, my metric will be four weeks in a row of 2.5+ net R. I know Thales is an advocate of position sizing and R-multiples, and it is what I'm comfortable with. Realistically, 2.5 R for me will most often be more than 50 ticks...but R will be how I track my performance.

 

I've recently opened a FXCM Micro demo account. I'll be trading the EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the USD/JPY...like Thales's daughter and he traded. They're highly correlated markets, and could be considered nearly "one market," and I will simply look for the best opportunity of the moment for day trading. I understand that Thales's daughter gradually favored the EUR/JPY and eventually devoted most of her attention to only that pair...something similar might happen with me, but if it does, I want it to happen "naturally" (like it did with her), rather than forcing it.

 

I'm trading from 7am eastern time (an hour before the New York open) until between 2pm-4pm, and from 7pm-11pm (Tokyo AM hours)...except on Sunday evenings, when I'll trade 5pm-11pm. I won't enter any new trades outside of those hours, although I may let some open trades run past them. I have a part-time job now that sometimes interferes with my trading...sometimes it will force me to quit in the morning by 2pm, and sometimes I won't be able to trade in the evenings.

 

I've also re-arranged my desktop and trading computer to best suit my trading.

 

I'm using Ninja Trader for my primary day trading charts...15 minute bars is the default, but I'll change time frames and use range charts as needed/wanted...

 

 

I'm using Meta Trader for my "secondary" charts...longer timeframe charts for context and longer-term S/R considerations. My default is 4 hour bars, but as with my primary charts, I'll switch to other timeframes as needed/wanted. I periodically update my markings on these charts as needed...I left my markings on the charts for the screenshot because I was afraid I'd have to redraw them if I removed them.

 

 

..and I'm trading on my new 17.3" laptop I bought a little while back.

 

 

My Pledge and Final Thought

 

My pledge...to myself, to the people who know me, to the readers at TL, to whomever...is to continue on this path and not veer from it in any way. This will allow me to devote all of my mental energy to the Thales Chart Method and not waste it on other things.

 

I get frustrated because I think, "Gosh, I've been doing this for a year!!" However, as illustrated in the "Where I've Been" section, I really haven't...I haven't been laser focused on Thales's approach for a year, day after day, week after week, just trying to master the approach…far from it, to be honest. I've been distracted by extraneous things. That ends now!!

 

I am determined to stick with it, because in my view, if it takes 2 years to master, it'd be well worth it...heck, if it took 5 years, it'd still be well worth it. However, I am well aware of the possibility that someone could stick with it for 10 years and get practically nowhere. However, I believe/hope that with hard work, study, diligence and patience, I will get to where I want to be within weeks or months from where I am now, rather than years (as long as I keep my head straight and emotions in check...and this should really be huge font, bright colors, double-underlined, etc.). Life is all about choices...and I am making the choice to continue (while I still have a choice). I am aware and mindful of the risk/tradeoff.

 

I’m going begin demo-trading at the start of next week…I plan to simply “study” for the rest of this week and over the weekend. After that I will continue to "study" and read/re-read the readings/books Thales has recommended. Also, I plan to be posting a lot more in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread over the next several weeks.

 

-Cory

 

Glad you're back on track.

 

I went through a similar thing on my forex journey. You will step off the path once in a while but your stride will become stronger and more confident when you get back on your path.

 

Don't be too hard on yourself, it's very common event with traders You can only get better from this point onwards.

[Cory2679 11]

The First Amendment to the Plan

 

After careful thought and consideration, I have decided to make an amendment to the plan I laid out a few weeks ago.

 

…four weeks in a row of 2.5+ net R…

 

The amendment is...rather than the goal being "four weeks in a row of 2.5+ net R," the goal will now be 10R, period...however long (or short) a time it takes.

 

I had really already made an amendment to Thales's original plan...rather than 50 ticks per week, I "translated" that to R (2.5R). That amendment was in the spirit of position sizing/R-multiples ala Van Tharp. This amendment is in the spirit of trading for infinite yield...

 

I essentially already explained the dilemma in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread...

 

...I think part of the problem is my target of 4 weeks in a row with 2.5+ net R......once I hit 2.5R for the week (which I did after the close of Tuesday), it's really hard to put that at risk to make more (and if I do, and I drop back below 2.5R, it's really demoralizing), and it creates problems (like squeezing stops way too tight, cutting profits way short, getting to BE too soon, etc.). I have a possible solution to this that I'm going to post to my log before the end of the day.

 

I'm not going to write paragraphs explaining and justifying my decision (like I had planned) because I think it's fairly straightforward. The only thing I will add is that I will allow a "reset" of my track record at the end of any given week if I am down overall on my quest toward net +10R (for the demo account only)...although, in the past three weeks since my previous post, this would have not been an issue...I'm overall profitable since my big post (you can follow/review most of my trading in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread...I've been posting a lot there). However, I'm going to start from scratch this Monday at "0R."

 

I believe that this amendment will help eliminate one of my current barriers to success.

 

----------

 

I'm trading from 7am eastern time (an hour before the New York open) until between 2pm-4pm, and from 7pm-11pm (Tokyo AM hours)...except on Sunday evenings, when I'll trade 5pm-11pm. I won't enter any new trades outside of those hours, although I may let some open trades run past them. I have a part-time job now that sometimes interferes with my trading...sometimes it will force me to quit in the morning by 2pm, and sometimes I won't be able to trade in the evenings.

 

On another note, I have a correction to my previous post…I said I was trading Tokyo AM hours, which I said was 7pm-11pm Eastern Time. However, I was confused at the time and it turns out that currently, according to Forex Factory, the Tokyo AM hours are 7pm-10pm Eastern Time (9am-12pm Tokyo time). However, my “trading hours” are not set in stone…if it’s 6:55am, I’m not going to refuse a trade because it’s not 7am yet. In fact, my trading hours are really looking more like 6am-11pm Eastern Time.

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Cory,

 

It's good to hear about your experience over the past year. Sadly, people need to go through these experiences and survive through them. I know many people (including myself) have touched on several areas that you mention in your post, such as:

- small timeframes

- importance of context. I was strongly commenting on this importance early on in the real-time thread

- excessive risk and it's partner patience

 

It took me 4 years of full-time trading to become a BE trader so I know very well the ups and downs and self-doubt one goes through along the journey. Everyone will be different and there is no need to compare yourself to the results of others. My only small piece of advice is that while it is great to have a plan going forward as you have outlined above, I also think one needs to keep an open mind and try various things out. I don't mean try things just for a week and then try something else. I'm meaning more to keep an open mind and continue to explore, measure, assess, and refine. I think this is especially crucial in the learning stages as not only does one need to find what works in the markets (and honestly, probably every method can work when applied properly), but they also need to find what fits them.

 

For example, this year I opened my mind to adding to my winners and it has made an enormous change to my trading. Not just in my bottom line, but also to my psychology. Keeping an open mind without being completely sidetracked is a skill to be acquired and one that has taken me 5 years to acquire.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

First Post of 2011

 

Well, I had decided to take some time off from TL, but I've changed my mind...the reason being that I've realized that consistently posting to the Reading Charts in Real Time thread does a great deal to help me stay focused and accountable. Therefore, I will resume my regular posting to the thread beginning next week.

 

My New, Set-In-Stone Schedule

 

For the new year, I've decided it may be beneficial to have a set-in-stone work/trading schedule. So, here it is:

 

• My trading hours for entering new trades will be the New York AM hours and the first half of the PM hours...as well as an hour before the NY open (London's open during that time). So, that's 7AM - 2:30PM Eastern Time. Plus, the Tokyo AM hours...currently that is 7PM-10PM Eastern Time (9AM-12PM Tokyo Time)...I'm not sure if that will change with DST or something like that, but for now it's 7-10.
   
  
• I will allow myself 1 hour to stick around after my "close" to manage any open positions I may have. After that, I either need to be out or simply have my orders in and walk away. This way, the latest I will be on my computer at night is 11PM (and 3:30PM in the afternoon)...I think it will be beneficial for me to have a strict rule like this.
   
  
• I won't trade on holidays.
   
  
• I won't trade during infrequent special situations when I deem it reasonable not to (ie a beach vacation, etc.)
   
  
• I have a part-time job where I work about 20 hours per week. My availability there is 3PM - Close M-F, and All Day Sa-Su. So, sometimes my job will interfere with my trading.
  

Tracking Performance

 

I will be starting next week with a fresh start of "0R." My "plan" hasn't changed...my immediate goal is to rack up +10R on an FXCM Demo account. I've decided that it just needs to be +10R over whatever period of time...so if I lost 400R then made 10R, that would count. The logic being that if I was a loser, and was gradually getting better and better, and eventually transformed into a break-even and then profitable trader, it would be silly then to tell myself I have to make up for all of the demo losses I made as a loser before I move on.

 

HOWEVER, while this is indeed my "plan," I will be making an effort to simply keep it in the back of my mind, rather than at the forefront. I need to have less of a micro-focus on trade performance, and more of a focus on just doing my best, learning, and getting better...this will lead to less frustration and emotion.

 

Final Thought

 

I'm going to be making a strong effort to keep my emotion out of my posts in the RCRT thread...I get so emotional and over-dramatic...I just end up embarrassing myself. Plus, usually I'm just over-reacting and whatever it is isn't nearly as bad as I make it out to be, and I feel completely different after I've calmed down. I'm going to just post my trades, and that's it.

 

Here's to a great 2011!

[brownsfan019 17]

Keep it going Cory! Good luck in 2011!

 

[Cory2679 11]

My New, Set-In-Stone Schedule

 

For the new year, I've decided it may be beneficial to have a set-in-stone work/trading schedule. So, here it is:

 

• My trading hours for entering new trades will be the New York AM hours and the first half of the PM hours...as well as an hour before the NY open (London's open during that time). So, that's 7AM - 2:30PM Eastern Time. Plus, the Tokyo AM hours...currently that is 7PM-10PM Eastern Time (9AM-12PM Tokyo Time)...I'm not sure if that will change with DST or something like that, but for now it's 7-10.
   
  
• I will allow myself 1 hour to stick around after my "close" to manage any open positions I may have. After that, I either need to be out or simply have my orders in and walk away. This way, the latest I will be on my computer at night is 11PM (and 3:30PM in the afternoon)...I think it will be beneficial for me to have a strict rule like this.
   
  
• I won't trade on holidays.
   
  
• I won't trade during infrequent special situations when I deem it reasonable not to (ie a beach vacation, etc.)
   
  
• I have a part-time job where I work about 20 hours per week. My availability there is 3PM - Close M-F, and All Day Sa-Su. So, sometimes my job will interfere with my trading.
  

 

One quick addition to my set-in-stone schedule:

 

• On days that I have to leave my computer early, I will not open any new trades the hour before I know I have to leave. For example, if I have to leave my house at 2:30, I won't enter any new trades after 1:30. That'll give me an hour to manage any open positions I may have. After that, like normal, I either need to be out or simply have my orders in and walk away.
  

I know none of you probably care about that...it's really just for me.

 

All right...that should be my last post here (my log) for a while...

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I haven't been very consistent updating this log or posting to the RCIRT thread lately. I think I just got a little tired of posting. I will provide a real update here eventually.

 

I have my usual ups and downs, but on balance, things are going well and I'm making progress...I am confident and optimistic.

 

I'm making this post because I read something yesterday...it was one of those things that I fealt was practially written for me...so I thought I'd share it here...it's the last page in Raghee Horner's book called "Forex Trading for Maximum Profit." I've attached it to this post.

 

I'm not so much on a holy-grail indicator pursuit or anything, but deep down, I know I do expect myself to catch every move, and when I don't, I get really upset...and it leads to entering on every little wiggle so that I don't miss a possible move. I know in my head that not every move is for me, but I don't think I truly know it in my "heart," so to speak.

 

Someone said this in the Reading Charts in Real Time thread...I can't remember who...I just have it in my notes...which I think is pretty important/relevant to the spirit of this post:

 

"If the trade is not completely obvious, then don't enter. You don't need to trade every single movement that a chart presents. If your reward is not equal to or greater than your risk, don't enter. If you doubt anything, then don't enter. These are all mental parameters that keep you out of more trouble than you can handle. To stick to these rules is the test."

[MidKnight 12]

It is true Cory. That ever so seemingly simple concept took me 5 years to even start to accept, but once I did things started to get a lot easier AND a lot more boring. Please don't interpret that as me saying I don't find trading enjoyable, I just mean there can be long periods of doing nothing, sometimes several days in a row but I still punch into work every day and see what the day holds. Those are my hardest and most exhausting days -- when I do nothing.

 

I wouldn't say I have fully accepted the concept yet, but significantly more than I ever have in my life.

 

Glad to see you are still trading and pursuing your goal.

 

With warm regards,

MK

[iwshares 10]

Hey Cory just checking in to see how your doing? Are you still trading, if so are you still following the 123 Thales method?