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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 12th February 2025. Financial Markets Await Key Inflation Data Amid Fed's Steady Stance. Market activity remained largely uneventful despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the commencement of the Treasury’s February refunding. Investors stayed on the sidelines, with little market-moving news to provide direction. Ongoing concerns over tariffs added an element of uncertainty, while Treasury yields remained under pressure throughout the session. Powell Reaffirms Cautious Approach to Interest Rates In his Senate testimony, Powell reiterated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no rush to adjust interest rates. He highlighted the resilience of the US economy and labour market, noting that while inflation has moderated over the past two years, it remains elevated. Powell also suggested that the neutral rate might be slightly higher than previously estimated, though this is not a new stance among policymakers. He avoided discussing fiscal policies or tariffs but explicitly stated that the Federal Reserve has no plans to issue a central bank digital currency. However, he confirmed the Fed’s support for stablecoin regulations. Bond Market Reaction and Treasury Yield Movements Treasury markets remained under pressure, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report keeping buyers on the sidelines. Even a strong 3-year auction failed to provide a significant boost. Short-term yields saw slight increases, with the 2-year yield closing at 4.287% and the 3-year yield at 4.305%, both just below their session highs. Longer-term yields also edged higher, with the 10-year note at 4.533% and the 30-year bond at 4.743%. Wall Street Mixed as Dollar Weakens US equity markets closed mixed after recovering from early losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.28%, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.03%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.36%, weighed down by sector-specific pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from a session high of 108.463 to settle at 107.944 as Powell’s remarks reassured investors, overshadowing concerns over tariffs and rising yields. Asian and European Markets React Ahead of the inflation data release, equity index futures showed mixed movements, while Treasury yields edged lower following Tuesday’s declines. In Asia, Japanese 5-year bond yields reached 1% for the first time since 2008, and the yen weakened for a third consecutive session on tariff-related worries. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong stocks saw tech-driven gains, with Alibaba Group rising 8.6% on reports of a partnership with Apple to integrate AI into its products. DeepSeek’s AI developments also boosted Chinese stocks, with analysts suggesting the rally has further upside potential. In Europe, ABN Amro Bank NV reported lower-than-expected profits, while Heineken NV exceeded expectations on beer volumes. The UK’s fiscal watchdog revised its growth forecasts downward, posing fresh challenges for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who may face potential spending cuts. Inflation Data in Focus Investors are eagerly awaiting key US inflation data, set for release later today. Market forecasts indicate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, likely rose 0.3% in January—the fifth such increase in the past six months. The strong labour market continues to support economic growth, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Money markets are currently pricing in a single quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year, expected by September. Earlier projections included two additional cuts in 2025, but a strong January jobs report has prompted a reassessment of the policy outlook. Currency and Commodity Market Highlights The Yen remained under pressure as investors worried about Japan’s potential inclusion in the latest round of US tariffs. The Rupee extended its rally following suspected central bank intervention, while Vietnam’s Dong fell to a record low against the dollar. EURUSD Faces Downside Risks Amid Tariff and Fed Policy Concerns EURUSD remains steady around 1.0360 during Wednesday’s Asian session but could face depreciation as the US advances a plan for reciprocal tariffs. President Trump’s administration is considering executive action to match or exceed tariffs imposed on US exports, potentially targeting the EU, Japan, and China. The Eurozone is particularly vulnerable, as it currently imposes a 10% duty on US automobile imports while benefiting from lower tariffs on its own exports. Additional trade tensions could weigh on the Euro. Meanwhile, the US Dollar may strengthen after Fed Chair Powell signalled no urgency to cut interest rates, reinforcing a risk-off sentiment alongside Trump’s 25% tariff hike. These factors could add pressure on EURUSD in the near term. In the commodities market, oil prices edged lower amid reports of a large increase in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude traded below $77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $73. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 9-million-barrel increase in US inventories, marking the largest build in a year if confirmed by official data. Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session after briefly surging above $2,942 per ounce in volatile trading. Market Outlook As the global markets brace for inflation data and further Fed guidance, investors remain cautious. Powell’s testimony reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance on rate adjustments, while geopolitical and economic uncertainties—ranging from trade tariffs to currency fluctuations—continue to influence market sentiment. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators for further direction on interest rates and inflation trends. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
LZ LegalZoomcom stock, watch for a bull flag breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?LZ -
By Stocks4life · Posted
XMTR Xometry stock, watch for a local breakout above 37.5, target 44 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?XMTR -
By Stocks4life · Posted
INTC Intel stock, nice bounce off the lower 19.12 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?INTC -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 11th February 2025. Market Update: Tariffs, Inflation, and Investor Sentiment Shape Global Markets. Asian equities and US stock index futures experienced declines. At the same time, gold surged to a record high, reflecting investor caution following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium. Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China faced selling pressure, contributing to a regional downturn. Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Euro Stoxx 50 also traded lower. Meanwhile, Japanese markets remained closed due to a public holiday. Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset duringeconomic uncertainty, extended its rally for a third consecutive session, briefly surpassing $2,942 before paring some gains. The US dollar index maintained its Monday gains, signalling sustained strength amid market volatility. The precious metal has surged about 11% this year, setting successive records as Trump’s disruptive moves on trade and geopolitics reinforce its role as a store of value in uncertain times. US Steel and Metals Sector Reacts to Tariffs Shares of US Steel Corporation surged as much as 6% following Trump’s announcement, as domestic metals producers saw a boost from the prospect of increased business and stronger pricing power. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, the top steel suppliers to the US, are expected to be significantly impacted by these trade restrictions. Trump stated that the new tariffs, effective in March, aim to revitalize domestic production and job growth. However, he also suggested the possibility of further tariff increases, adding to market uncertainty. Investor Concerns Over Tariffs and Trade War Escalation Investors are grappling with the implications of Trump’s tariffs, particularly in distinguishing between policy announcements and concrete actions. The uncertainty surrounding additional levies and potential retaliatory measures has reignited fears of an intensifying global trade war. Tariffs on Chinese goods are already in effect, and concerns persist about further economic fallout. According to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs, the key challenge in portfolio strategy now lies in identifying assets that can effectively hedge against tariff risks. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, he noted, “The big challenge is that this is going to be much more difficult from here because the tariffs are very specific.” Key Economic Data and Federal Reserve Testimony in Focus Beyond trade tensions, investors are closely watching this week’s critical economic reports and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress, while fresh inflation data will provide further insight into price trends. According to the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation expectations for both the one-year and three-year outlooks remained steady at 3% in January. Short-term US inflation expectations have now risen above longer-term projections to their widest gap since 2023, signalling potential shifts in monetary policy. Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market today. A reprieve from negative surprises, such as the impact of DeepSeek, ongoing tariffs, and consumer sentiment concerns, could push S&P 500 to break out of its two-month consolidation. Currency and Commodity Markets React The currency market also reflected shifting investor sentiment. The Japanese Yen remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the British Pound weakened after a report from the Financial Times cited Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann’s concerns that weakening demand is beginning to outweigh inflationary risks. Gold’s continued ascent has been accompanied by significant inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Global holdings have risen in six of the past seven weeks, reaching their highest levels since November. Banks have forecast that gold could test the $3,000 mark, with Citigroup predicting it could hit that level within three months and J.P. Morgan Private Bank projecting a year-end target of $3,150. Market Resilience Amid Trade Uncertainty Despite ongoing tariff tensions, equities have demonstrated resilience, leading some analysts to caution that further trade escalations could trigger renewed market pullbacks. Strategists at Deutsche Bank AG, including Binky Chadha, suggested that historical patterns indicate sharp but short-lived equity selloffs during geopolitical events, with markets typically rebounding before any formal de-escalation occurs. They projected that, in such scenarios, equity markets could decline by 6%-8% over a three-week period before recovering in a similar timeframe. China’s Growing Gold Reserves and Market Influence China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January, signalling an ongoing commitment to diversifying its holdings despite record-high prices. In addition, China introduced a pilot program allowing 10 major insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets in bullion for the first time. This initiative could translate into as much as 200 billion Yuan ($27.4 billion) in potential gold investments. Key Market Events to Watch This Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today Speeches by Fed officials Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Michelle Bowman today US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Wednesday As global markets continue to navigate economic uncertainties, investors remain watchful of trade developments, monetary policy signals, and inflation trends that could shape the financial landscape in the coming weeks. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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