Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

FulcrumTrader

MASSIVE Hedge in the "ES" Before Jan 22nd Sell Off!

Recommended Posts

Hi, Fulcrum Trader! Don't you look at larger time frame cumulative delta to see the medium term trend? In a 350k volume chart, for instance, we can see the short inventory is far from being taken. We can see an important level at about 1100. Prices right now reaching this level, but cumulative delta not even close to the value it was when ES last visit 1100 level.

 

Images | ChartHub.com

 

[]s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Ceschiatti said:
Hi, Fulcrum Trader! Don't you look at larger time frame cumulative delta to see the medium term trend? In a 350k volume chart, for instance, we can see the short inventory is far from being taken. We can see an important level at about 1100. Prices right now reaching this level, but cumulative delta not even close to the value it was when ES last visit 1100 level.

 

Images | ChartHub.com

 

[]s

You are not properly interpreting the longer term Delta Volume Distributions if you think all that SHORT inventory is still in the market. There is still some SHORT inventory being held in this market from previous trade at the 1101.50 and 1103.50 areas of price......but for the most part, those who were sellers at the 1148.00's on down have already covered out most of those positions profitably (in the run down to the 1040.75 level).

 

There is a lot of extra work that needs to be done to properly determine how much SHORT inventory is still in a market after over a 100 point move (and where is any remaining SHORT inventory still being held from). I have spent over 7 years now exclusively working with and tracking Cumulative Delta, so I know how to read longer term Delta Volume Distributions very well. Tracking intraday and longer term Delta Volume Distributions in various futures instruments is my specialty, so I also use some higher time frame Renko charts.

 

At present, the last significant held SHORT inventory in this market is tied to the 1101.50's and 1103.50's (also, the new SHORT inventory zone that was accumulated in a Delta Zone of resting SHORT inventory in the 1100.00 to 1097.00 range of price....this was from yesterday's action). Any trade north of the 1103.50's in the next few trade days may cause the last significant held SHORT inventory by Commercials to unwind......that is what I am tracking for at this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  FulcrumTrader said:
Any trade north of the 1103.50's in the next few trade days may cause the last significant held SHORT inventory by Commercials to unwind......that is what I am tracking for at this time.

 

Great call Fulcrum! Looks like we got that event at 3:40pm today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  i trade said:
Great call Fulcrum! Looks like we got that event at 3:40pm today?
Today we did finally get the Equities buy program run needed to push the 1103.50's through SHORT covering dominating the ES order flow. The recent upper rotational sellers from yesterday did unwind their held SHORT inventory and I did get a moderate "Inventory Grab" SHORT signal. I sold the move in the 1104's/1105's as previous weeks resting SHORT inventory from the 1103.50's area of price still held in place. Also of note, the last minutes of the day had us 12,000 new contracts net SHORT as we closed the Globex session. :cool:

 

Well, we all know what happened after that.....LOL! Commercials I am sure will be sending a king size "Thank You" card to the FED for the news release timing. I hit targets right out of that Globex session re-open at the 1101.00's and 1096.00's so far......next targets at the 1092.00's and then 1088.00's. Holding DAX SHORT's I put on before the close too.......those will open gapped down most likely, so I will scale them out latter tonight and into tomorrow if we continue to breakdown.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

personally I would aggregate the two seeing as they are fungible. (actually I might aggregate all months in both contracts thus eliminating spreads). What he is saying is not that the ES has no longer term traders, just that the SP is a better instrument to look at to track there positions.

 

I was more interested in the second vid trying to establish whether positions are 'directional' or hedges.

 

As an aside have you tried comparing your delta based proxy for Inventory with actual Inventory (OI)? Even with actual data only available weekly it might reveal interesting info.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  BlowFish said:
personally I would aggregate the two seeing as they are fungible. (actually I might aggregate all months in both contracts thus eliminating spreads). What he is saying is not that the ES has no longer term traders, just that the SP is a better instrument to look at to track there positions.

Right....I just disagree with his conclusion.

 

Also, I do pay attention to the open interest of the various futures instruments that I trade. Fortunately, the Cumulative Delta and Delta Volume Distributions are realtime information that I can use for actionable trade entry determinations (unlike most open interest information).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes I think I understand how you use cumulative delta as a real time proxy for inventory/OI. I would have thought it might be interesting to compare with actual inventory holdings (obviously on the coarser time frame), figured you might notice interesting things that suggest refinements to your tools or there application. It should also be able to quantifiablly show how good a proxy it is. I have a hunch (not exactly sure why) that it might actually 'amplify' changes in inventory I don't think this would matter the way you are doing things (relatively rather than absolutely when it comes to inventory), it may even be desirable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FT...any comment or experience with the accuracy of the DTN IQ data feed when it comes to bid/ask volume data? Also, if you wouldn't mind could you post an intraday chart from Thursday and/or Friday of this current week showing cumulative delta so I can compare it to my data?

Appreciate it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  i trade said:
FT...any comment or experience with the accuracy of the DTN IQ data feed when it comes to bid/ask volume data? Also, if you wouldn't mind could you post an intraday chart from Thursday and/or Friday of this current week showing cumulative delta so I can compare it to my data?

Appreciate it!

As stated in various threads here at TL, I do know that DTN.IQ feed is very solid and I have no complaints. I have been traveling this weekend on trading business so I will try and put up some charts soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fulcrum can you add some words (on your experience) about TT ?

From some of your posts I seen you consider the TT Fix adapter a "low quality instrument".

1)From wich perspective?

CumulativeDelta analysis only - due probably to Ticker Plant absence and the coalescing of data - or in general (speed,loosing data,etc) ?

2)Have you some experience on TT API (About Cumulative Delta,un-coalescing of data,speed...)?

 

Thanks again for your sharing experience

 

Paolo

 

 

  FulcrumTrader said:
As stated in various threads here at TL, I do know that DTN.IQ feed is very solid and I have no complaints. I have been traveling this weekend on trading business so I will try and put up some charts soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On Balance Volume adds the volume of a bar if it closes up and subtracts the volume of a bar if it closes down, and tracks that bar to bar.

 

Cumulative Delta does this on a trade by trade basis, and adds if the trade was at the ask and subtracts if the trade was at the bid.

 

You can also do something that is part way between the two where you accumulate tick by tick (like cumulative delta) but add on an up tick and subtract on a down tick (like on balance volume).

 

I trust this is clear - the two are similar in high level abstract concept but extremely different in practice and usage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  paolfili said:
Fulcrum can you add some words (on your experience) about TT ?

From some of your posts I seen you consider the TT Fix adapter a "low quality instrument".

1)From wich perspective?

CumulativeDelta analysis only - due probably to Ticker Plant absence and the coalescing of data - or in general (speed,loosing data,etc) ?

2)Have you some experience on TT API (About Cumulative Delta,un-coalescing of data,speed...)?

 

Thanks again for your sharing experience

 

Paolo

 

TT Fix Adapter feed is usable if uncoalesced and if you have a proper means to capture and store the data for historical lookback capability (like TradeVec.com will be doing for BID/ASK differential volume needs).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  enochbenjamin said:
Fulcrum, or anybody... Do you know if there is significant difference between cumulative delta and on balance volume? They seem like they attempt to determine the same thing???

 

I myself never use OBV....I stick with the "market order" driven order flow tracking with CD.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.