[pivots] Rick Ackerman's "Hidden Pivots"

[Tasuki 10]

Hello all,

I just discovered a website by Rick Ackerman who has a trading method that looks interesting. Maybe not interesting enough to shell out $990 to get all the details, but worthwhile enough to check out the free stuff.

 

He's got a free video at this address which gives a teaser of what he does:

http://www.rickackerman.com/video/

 

Here's what I've been able to figure out so far:

His basic trading setup is the AB=CD pattern which is so familiar to most folks. However, he seems to have some interesting twists to it.

 

His AB leg (which he calls the "impulse leg") has to exceed at least two prior pivots---an "internal" pivot which is a pivot prior to the pivot A in which price is going in the same direction as the AB leg, and an "external" pivot, which is a prior pivot to the pivot A in which price is headed in the opposite direction from the AB leg. I'm guessing he has some rules for how you pick those pivots. He then waits for the BC pullback, and he enters as the CD leg is starting to form. No doubt he also has rules for how to enter the CD leg.

 

Something he does that's tricky is he chooses what he calls "subtle" impulse legs. They're "camouflaged", meaning that you wouldn't necessarily think of them as the beginning of tradable moves, and this is what gives him an advantage, so he says--because he's entering the market at trade locations that don't look attractive to the majority of traders (his examples do seem to bear out his belief). The key, I'm guessing, is in the strict rules he applies to these impulse legs--they have to exceed at least two prior pivots, an internal and an external.

 

Another key feature that must be part of his system is a strict set of rules for choosing your C pivot, because his examples show that he is entering the market very soon after that C pivot forms, so he has to know very precisely when he's got a true C pivot and not just some random wash and rinse in the market.

 

The thing I like about his method is that it is based strictly on price action, and therefore doesn't get in the way of any other method that you care to apply over top of it, such as VSA, or pitchforks, or indicators, or whathaveyou.

 

My plan is just to study these impulse legs that he describes and see if I can find them in real time, and in time enough to trade them.

 

If anyone has any further insight into Rick's methods, or has actually taken his course, any and all comments would be most welcome.

 

I've posted a few charts to show his method the best I can, given the fact that I'm trying to smoke it out of his free material. Probably not fair to him, but maybe useful to some of you. I hope.

 

Cheers, Tasuki

[DugDug 10]

  Tasuki said:

Hello all,

he says--because he's entering the market at trade locations that don't look attractive to the majority of traders (his examples do seem to bear out his belief). The key, I'm guessing, is in the strict rules he applies to these impulse legs--they have to exceed at least two prior pivots, an internal and an external.

 

 

 

To me it looks interesting only from the point of view that its where a lot of other people may not be looking.

However it seems to me to be a combination of a few other ideas - buying a break of an ABC/ross hook in the 5th wave using elliot wave theory. ie; waiting for a pullback, then going with a continuation pattern of the main trend after that pullback.

 

Unless it has a really really high percentage of winners it seems to me that its not a strategy that leads to running positions. (which is were the best money is made)

Given it requires "strict rules" then I figure there are better ideas around that I would prefer to apply strict and uncomplicated rules on.

 

But if it works for others - good luck to them.

[Tasuki 10]

  DugDug said:

To me it looks interesting only from the point of view that its where a lot of other people may not be looking.

However it seems to me to be a combination of a few other ideas - buying a break of an ABC/ross hook in the 5th wave using elliot wave theory. ie; waiting for a pullback, then going with a continuation pattern of the main trend after that pullback.

 

Unless it has a really really high percentage of winners it seems to me that its not a strategy that leads to running positions. (which is were the best money is made)

Given it requires "strict rules" then I figure there are better ideas around that I would prefer to apply strict and uncomplicated rules on.

 

But if it works for others - good luck to them.

 

Actually, in fairness to this guy Rick, the "strict rules" was my assumption, I just can't see how he would avoid alot of losers unless he was extremely careful with his entries.

 

As far as a strategy that leads to runners, I'm not sure how Rick would treat his methodology, but I know what I would do---take partial profits at the point D target and let a portion run. In this way, the strategy could indeed be successful in catching the big wins.

 

Attached is a chart of SSRI weekly. I was able to glean this tidbit from the free video---if price gets to the halfway point of the projected CD leg, and falls back (rather than motoring right through to the D target), then Rick predicts that the price will ultimately fail to reach the D target by the exact same amount as it fell back when it reached this midpoint. That's actualy kind of cool, and useful as well. For swing trading, as you would likely be doing with a weekly chart, this can be quite a powerful technique.

[SunTrader 10]

  Tasuki said:

Hello all,

I just discovered a website by Rick Ackerman who has a trading method that looks interesting ...........

His approach IMO seems more complicated than it has to be.

 

This is all looking back in hindsight but on first chart the trading day of 12/2/08 followed a huge 80 point drop on 12/1/08. I would not be looking to go long - even if the expected bounce happened - as it did, not once but twice @ 10am est and again @ 230pm est.

 

I don't remember how I traded it that day, more than year ago, but looking at it now can see clearly where the point to go short (my preference) was:

[Tasuki 10]

  SunTrader said:

His approach IMO seems more complicated than it has to be.

 

This is all looking back in hindsight but on first chart the trading day of 12/2/08 followed a huge 80 point drop on 12/1/08. I would not be looking to go long - even if the expected bounce happened - as it did, not once but twice @ 10am est and again @ 230pm est.

 

I don't remember how I traded it that day, more than year ago, but looking at it now can see clearly where the point to go short (my preference) was:

 

It feels a bit weird analyzing charts from 2008, but the attached chart shows where Rick got long on that day in December 2008. You're right, Suntrader, not the greatest possible trade of the day, but it would have been a nice winner, nonetheless.

[Tasuki 10]

  Rick A said:

Thank you for bringing the Hidden Pivot Method to the attention of this group, Tasuki.

 

I offer a six-hour webinar each month to those who want to learn my system.

 

Hi Rick, glad you joined Traders Lab, and many thanks for the clarifications of your methodology. I know you're new here, having joined yesterday, but just a word of caution---the founder of TL doesn't tolerate any self-advertising whatsoever (even when it would be useful, as in your post). The rationale is that otherwise the forums would be overrun with people selling courses. Pretty much the only thing that seems to be OK is mentioning a website where members can go for further info if they're so inclined.

 

What would be helpful, and completely OK, would be posting a few charts of your setups to show where you would enter and exit, and why. Then if people like what they see, they can find your course if they're interested. I've been particularly tuned into your gold forecasts, which have been really excellent, from what I've seen. I'm sure lots of members on TL would like to hear what you have to say about gold. Maybe we could entice you to start a thread on the forums to discuss gold's prospects? Just a suggestion.

 

Tasuki

[thalestrader 14]

You got to wonder about a guy who comes out asking for a grand in his very first post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Tasuki 10]

  thalestrader said:

You got to wonder about a guy who comes out asking for a grand in his very first post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales, I know what you mean, but I think that was due to his inexperience with our forum. We'll see if he responds with anything more substantive.

Tasuki

[Rick A 10]

I have responded as appropriate, Tasuki, including to a post by Thales that was personally insulting, but your moderator apparently has censored all of my responses. Sayonara.

[thalestrader 14]

  Rick A said:

I have responded as appropriate... including to a post by Thales that was personally insulting,....

 

You used your inaugural post to a free forum to make mention of the fact that for just $995 you will teach others to to as you do, and you're insulted?

 

And then your next post is to cry about having been insulted because of the content of your first post?

 

For the record, your first post was fine up to the point where you decided advertise your services.

 

Just once I'd like to see someone who has broken with the accepted practices here within the TL community, whether or not it was intended, to apologize for the transgression. Instead we get one guy telling us that we should "calm down" and another guy crying that he's been insulted.

 

-Thales

[BlowFish 10]

I think there have been one or two. Richard springs to mind, apologies to R if I have misremembered.

 

More importantly there are a couple of vendors here who are not sponsors but make valuable contributions to the community. Win win situation.

[SunTrader 10]

Handled as it should be.

 

Anyone who has any posting experience whatsoever in online forums should know.

[Tasuki 10]

  SunTrader said:

Handled as it should be.

 

Anyone who has any posting experience whatsoever in online forums should know.

 

Well, this is the last time I start a thread on TL and try to add something of value to the forums. By jumping down this guy's throat, you pinheads have driven away a successful trader whose calls on the gold market (at least) are scary-good. Had you folks been a little more patient with him, we might have learned some more about his methods, which obviously work. In your insane drive for the purity of the forums (free of salesmen) you have done us all a disservice.

 

Whatever makes you think that this guy Rick had any experience whatsoever with online trading forums? From what I can tell, he's a crusty old floor trader, and my own experience with former floor traders is that they are averse to online chat sites and trading forums and generally know jack about them.

 

Yeah, I'll agree, it was tacky by our TL standards to advertise his services, but how the hell was he supposed to know that? Instead of insulting him by deleting his post, why not politely tell him that this was uncool, and ask him to edit his post and resubmit it? It is this lack of courtesy on the part of the forum moderators (not to mention the posters) that is unfortunately immature. IMHO you should review your impatience with someone new, especially someone who obviously knows a thing or two and might have been willing to share, if he had been treated less rudely.

 

Well, you folks can do whatever you like, I'll just hang out elsewhere.

[SunTrader 10]

  Tasuki said:

Whatever makes you think that this guy Rick had any experience whatsoever with online trading forums? From what I can tell, ......

You assume and don't really know but it is the forum admin that is jumping to conclusions. :hmmmm:

 

Well I'm assuming you have made the final decision to move on. Oh well. Good luck.

[RichardTodd 10]

FWIW people in business do "vanity searches", and also their clients tell them when they are mentioned on sites. So, in my case, someone emailed me to say "check out this link" and I saw tens of pages of people investigating one of the indicators I used to sell. Their posts linked to my sites. Their posts used my screenshots. It was exciting. The last thing on my mind was investigating the board attitude toward advertising, when from my perspective I was looking at a thread full of positive advertising already. It's an easy mistake to make when part of your job is to market yourself.

 

But, even though it's an easy mistake, it's still a mistake, and the internet isn't known for politeness. So, when you get slapped down for being a sleazy marketer, you can either adapt or go home crying. One would think that if he had something of substance to say, his ego could take the hit....

 

(at least he didn't come back as Ackerfan9391 posting "interesting" charts and claiming to love the service in every post :rofl:)

[DugDug 10]

  RichardTodd said:

. One would think that if he had something of substance to say, his ego could take the hit....

)

 

I like the attitude Richard.... I dont think many people like salesmen especially those who deny they want to sell something.

I particularly like the quote above..... I mean who cares what the internet is saying, so long as you are either selling, or the market is whispering sweet nothings into your ear.

[thalestrader 14]

If RA were thinking clearly, he'd have used the opportunity to post some real time examples here in this thread. I can tell you from my experience in the Reading Charts thread that if he were to post just a couple of winning trades and answered a few questions politely, he'd have had plenty of PM's from folks ready, willing, and able to pony up for his seminar course. Instead, he goes right for the close.

 

There is a right way and a wrong way to market yourself. In the context of TL, he did it the wrong way. That does not mean that it was too late to do the right thing (a "win win" as Blowfish calls it), but he certainly did himself no favors by his reaction. I would have liked for him to contribute here. I just did not like the upfront "Tell them what they get for just $995" approach. I certainly do not feel I "jumped down the guy's throat." I simply said that you have to wonder about a guy who uses his initial post to ask for a grand. I and I still think you have to wonder.

 

For what it is worth, I am not opposed to all seminar teachers. I would gladly pay to attend any Linda Raschke event. William O'Neil? You betcha'. Regrettably it is too late to revisit George Lane, but certainly it was money well spent. Trading can be taught. But show us something, then ask for the money. RA had, and perhaps can still salvage, an opportunity to provide us with some kind of body of evidence that indicates that there is something of value and worth hearing there.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Tasuki 10]

  thalestrader said:

If RA were thinking clearly, he'd have used the opportunity to post some real time examples here in this thread. I can tell you from my experience in the Reading Charts thread that if he were to post just a couple of winning trades and answered a few questions politely, he'd have had plenty of PM's from folks ready, willing, and able to pony up for his seminar course. Instead, he goes right for the close.

 

There is a right way and a wrong way to market yourself. In the context of TL, he did it the wrong way. That does not mean that it was too late to do the right thing (a "win win" as Blowfish calls it), but he certainly did himself no favors by his reaction. I would have liked for him to contribute here. I just did not like the upfront "Tell them what they get for just $995" approach. I certainly do not feel I "jumped down the guy's throat." I simply said that you have to wonder about a guy who uses his initial post to ask for a grand. I and I still think you have to wonder.

 

For what it is worth, I am not opposed to all seminar teachers. I would gladly pay to attend any Linda Raschke event. William O'Neil? You betcha'. Regrettably it is too late to revisit George Lane, but certainly it was money well spent. Trading can be taught. But show us something, then ask for the money. RA had, and perhaps can still salvage, an opportunity to provide us with some kind of body of evidence that indicates that there is something of value and worth hearing there.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

very well said, Thales.

 

Possibly, RA is just a scam artist. From what I've seen so far, however, that is unlikely. Actually, very unlikely.

Possibly, RA is afraid that, if he shows his trades, people will catch on and he'll have nothing to teach. This seems quite plausible, or at least plausible that he thinks so.

Possibly, he's just a crusty old bastard who's a good enough trader that he doesn't actually give a damn about teaching or sharing. Given his past as a floor trader, this is also entirely possible.

Pity, really, because I think these "hidden pivots" might be useful for entries in difficult markets, if we could figure out how they work.

 

Tasuki

[sevensa 10]

  Tasuki said:

very well said, Thales.

 

Possibly, RA is just a scam artist. From what I've seen so far, however, that is unlikely. Actually, very unlikely.

Possibly, RA is afraid that, if he shows his trades, people will catch on and he'll have nothing to teach. This seems quite plausible, or at least plausible that he thinks so.

Possibly, he's just a crusty old bastard who's a good enough trader that he doesn't actually give a damn about teaching or sharing. Given his past as a floor trader, this is also entirely possible.

Pity, really, because I think these "hidden pivots" might be useful for entries in difficult markets, if we could figure out how they work.

 

Tasuki

 

I really do not see the point of continue to cry about this. You make it sound like this was our one shot of finding the holy grail. From his first post, he obviously was not going to provide it here for free. If you really think this "hidden pivots" are so important, why not shell out the $995 and find out? For something you think is that important, $995 should be peanuts.

[Kiwi 16]

All this stuff is bullshit anyway. If its not in the public domain its not going to sell for 995 if its real.

 

Shame on you Sevensea. 995 is not peanuts if it feeds the scammers - it keeps the parasitic fukkers alive.

[sevensa 10]

  Kiwi said:

All this stuff is bullshit anyway. If its not in the public domain its not going to sell for 995 if its real.

 

Shame on you Sevensea. 995 is not peanuts if it feeds the scammers - it keeps the parasitic fukkers alive.

 

How about telling us how you really feel?

 

That wasn't my point. Tasuki doesn't believe it is a scam and my point was that if someone really think something is so wonderful, $995 should be peanuts for it. If you think $995 is too much to pay for something you honestly believe will improve your trading, we will just have to disagree as I will glady do it as I know it will pay for itself in no time. (Not that I think this particular product is worth paying anything for and I won't.)

 

I wouldn't go so far as saying that "all this stuff is bullshit" though. I've paid for "stuff" in the past that was quite useful and improved my trading and paid for itself many times over it's cost.

[BlowFish 10]

  Tasuki said:

v

 

Possibly, RA is afraid that, if he shows his trades, people will catch on and he'll have nothing to teach. This seems quite plausible, or at least plausible that he thinks so.

 

 

  Kiwi said:

All this stuff is bullshit anyway. If its not in the public domain its not going to sell for 995 if its real.

 

Shame on you Sevensea. 995 is not peanuts if it feeds the scammers - it keeps the parasitic fukkers alive.

 

Well a very cursory look and my hunch is that a) there is possibly some validity to the approach b) there is nothing really novel there, price action, measured moves, blah, blah.

 

There is no secret sauce. If you find it difficult to pull this sort of stuff together into an effective approach then maybe it is worth shelling out for this or something like it. The technique is secondary providing you accept the principles. My advice would be, be very wary of people that imply the secret to success is in the nuances of the technique rather than the traders application of it. I am not suggesting R is doing this but it is a very quick way to filter quite a large portion of the BSers.

[Marsupilami 10]

I don't think RA is a scam. I'm pretty sure I know what he does and this stuff can work incredibly well although it is more of an art than a science and it is definitely nothing new, it is extremely basic and it can certainly work if you are an experienced trader. If you try to apply his setup mechanically, however, you will get killed.

 

There are guys who sell the same setup (maybe with a few nuances) for much more, although they provide "lifelong" training and trade this way day in and day out along with a group of other traders. It seems to work for them although I'm pretty sure they are not trading from a yacht or a tropical island.

 

So if RA does what I think he does, the 995 $ is definitely a fair price, imho.

[thalestrader 14]

I do not think he is a scam. His approach is worth studying if you are still without an approach that works for you.

 

I, like Sevensa, have bought information that I would gladly pay for again (I gave as examples Linda Raschke and George Lane). I do not think $995 is an exorbitant amount to charge, especially if follow up were included (I'd probably charge 5 times than much just to give some of the folks here at TL my personal email address for all the headaches I'm sure they'd give me).

 

My point above was that RA was far too heavy handed in his self-promotion. I do not think he is simply a "crusty old trader" who doesn't care about teaching ... of course he does, or else why else mention his monthly seminar and its attendant fee? My guess is that he does know how to trade. Whether he still trades or not, or whether he is still able to trade well or not, I do not know (I have known a few over the years who know how to trade, and who at one time could trade, but have since lost their nerve and are no longer able to trade, though they know what they have to do to do it well). So whether he trades or not, RA certainly is interested in teaching (though, apparently, not "sharing") his method.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Rick A 10]

I don't do any advertising,Thales. My monthly webinar fills up because my forecasting method works, because I am sincerely committed to each and every one of my students, and because they are eager to spread the word.

 

Regarding the matter of an apology, the initial post by me that you've alluded to was deleted without explanation, and so your flippant remark, "You got to wonder about a guy..." was the first indication I had that I'd violated TL etiquette. I'm sure you can understand why this comment did not elicit in me, first of all, a desire to make amends.

 

I do recall taking care to avoid striking a tone that might have been construed as boastful or self-promoting. In context, the $990 price that I mentioned should have offended no one; however, I apologize if it did. I had intended it only as a point of comparison to whatever other courses might be popular among your members. If I had been using your room to promote my wares, I would not have passed up the opportunity to shower you with $50 discount coupons.

 

Your members are welcome to check out Rick's Picks any time. (Do I dare mention that a free 7-day trial is available for this purpose? It affords entry to a 24/7 chat room, as well as acces to my daily touts and other services).

 

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