Gun Shy Cant Pull the Trigger

[forexfilms 10]

I've never really understood being unable to place a trade due to fear of failure or fear of success. Perhaps I just have a more risk taking personality but I have more a problem of putting out too many trades rather than not being able to place one.

[steve46 12]

I will go past all the silly psycho-bable....fear of success...give me a break

 

Your uncertain about how it all works....you haven't "seen" this (trading) done successfully, therefore you don't know what it feels like to do it right (thats what uncertainty is)

 

I am guessing that you feel that you are "on your own" in term of making this work....

 

If those comments are on the money, what you need is good advice, not psycho-bable

 

I suggest you take some time off and look elsewhere....I have some preliminary recommendations

 

For example you may want to look up Jeff Quinto...and lets be clear...I am NOT recommending his mentorship program.....what I AM recommending is that you read is comments (available at no cost to you) about how to do this right....

 

Another recommendation is that you hook up with a successful trader and ask them if you can watch (thats right simply watch what they are doing).....This will be difficult to arrange but if you can find someone who will allow it, you will get to see what it feels like when you are executing trades (winners and losers), and most importantly you willl get to see how professionals manage their emotions through the ups and downs of this very demanding profession....again you may want to email Jeff Quinto and ask him if he knows someone who will help you out. If you cannot, get back to me, and I may allow you to watch me (I have a class going on now and depending on my situation I may have space for you...take the time to look for other resources first please.

 

While I am at it let me mention a couple of things that may make all the difference between feeling uncertain and exposed when trading to feeling confident and optimistic about each new day....

 

In my class, we don't have this problem (anxiety about pulling the trigger)...and reason we don't (in my opinion) is that we emphasize PREPARATION above all else....the evening before each new day's open, we go over our charts and we make sure we have located underlying demand and overhead support.....we make sure we have our time-based pivots printed out and that they are correct. We monitor the overnight market to insure that we know what has happened in Asia and Europe. We know what economic reports are going to be released, and what their impact will be on the US market. Finally before the open, we plan our first two trades in detail. We know what where we are going to enter, we know where we are going to take our initial profit, we know where we are going to move our stops and if it goes against us we know exactly how much we are going to lose...all in advance....

 

Do you do this? If the answer is "no"....at least part of your problem is obvious....you're not preparing like a professional, instead you are trading like an amateur and the result (random success and periodic loss) would make anyone uncertain and fearful....In other words your fear of pulling the trigger is actually your basic intelligence trying to keep you out of trouble....

 

Best of luck to you

Steve

[MightyMouse 12]

I will go past all the silly psycho-bable....fear of success...give me a break

 

 

In my class, we don't have this problem (anxiety about pulling the trigger)..

 

 

Your students do not have this problem like Iran does not have gays.

[steve46 12]

Your students do not have this problem like Iran does not have gays.

 

I have explained why my students do not have this problem (we prepare properly). If English comprehension is giving you problems, have an adult explain it to you.

[Rande Howell 10]

I have explained why my students do not have this problem (we prepare properly). If English comprehension is giving you problems, have an adult explain it to you.

 

And I thought you and MM were buddies .... Maybe I should have an adult explain this to me. Seriously though, I have a couple of clients who are Iranian. They are not gay. But one is Iranian Muslim and the other is Iranian Jew. Best friends. Of course, they and their families, like gays, were forced to leave. Best of luck with this venture. Would be interested if you happen to find a few closeted "fearbies" in your midst and what (if they are there) you do with them. The good news is that their TA is a black and white indicator that takes all guess work out of assessing performance over time.

 

Good Trading for you and your students

Rande Howell

[MightyMouse 12]

I have explained why my students do not have this problem (we prepare properly). If English comprehension is giving you problems, have an adult explain it to you.

 

The statement that “there are no gays in Iran” was a statement similar to one made by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he was asked about the treatment of gays in Iran. It was ridiculed and he was considered to be out of touch with reality since homosexuality is a commonly occurring phenomenon. Your statement that “In my class, we don't have this problem (anxiety about pulling the trigger)" seemed very similar from an ontological perspective.

 

If you do really know everything that is going on inside of your students minds then I certainly apologize for the comparison. Most people cannot read minds and I assumed that you were like most people. My bad

[steve46 12]

And I thought you and MM were buddies .... Maybe I should have an adult explain this to me. Seriously though, I have a couple of clients who are Iranian. They are not gay. But one is Iranian Muslim and the other is Iranian Jew. Best friends. Of course, they and their families, like gays, were forced to leave. Best of luck with this venture. Would be interested if you happen to find a few closeted "fearbies" in your midst and what (if they are there) you do with them. The good news is that their TA is a black and white indicator that takes all guess work out of assessing performance over time.

 

Good Trading for you and your students

Rande Howell

 

Actually Rande, I have made no comment about gay people...frankly I have no interest either way...

The gentleman in question (dubbed "Mighty Mouth" by another member) is as usual marching to a different drum and of course is welcome to it....I believe he is a person that you might actually help....

 

For the record, I have suggested that fear of "pulling the trigger" indicates that the participant has not prepared adequately. In our class we learn a method of preparation that instills enough confidence that our students can in fact overcome the natural tendency to be hesitant when entering a new environment. Once they see the benefit of skillful preparation, and we have established a track record of successful entry, as well the ability to handle periodic loss....those students report that they do not find the experience of entering the market as intimidating or compelling.

 

I would suggest that this comment is in fact an "adult explanation" of what is going on.....

 

Always glad to hear your comments about trading and world events

 

Steve

Edited June 20, 2011 by steve46

[Tams 20]

The statement that “there are no gays in Iran” was a statement similar to one made by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he was asked about the treatment of gays in Iran. It was ridiculed and he was considered to be out of touch with reality since homosexuality is a commonly occurring phenomenon. Your statement that “In my class, we don't have this problem (anxiety about pulling the trigger)" seemed very similar from an ontological perspective.

 

If you do really know everything that is going on inside of your students minds then I certainly apologize for the comparison. Most people cannot read minds and I assumed that you were like most people. My bad

 

yup... that's funny.

[SIUYA 11]

For the record, I have suggested that fear of "pulling the trigger" indicates that the participant has not prepared adequately. In our class we learn a method of preparation that instills enough confidence that our students can in fact overcome the natural tendency to be hesitant when entering a new environment. Once they see the benefit of skillful preparation, and we have established a track record of successful entry, as well the ability to handle periodic loss....those students report that they do not find the experience of entering the market as intimidating or compelling.

 

Steve - while what you teach can certainly help prepare and I agree with good preparation, in your experience what happens when you have a string of losses, or the preparation just seems to be fruitless at times. People then often forget quickly the previous track record of successful entries and some can get gun shy....Especially when there are discretionary elements.

While your students might not find the experience of pulling the trigger as intimidating or compelling - do you have some way of finding out/measuring if this problem occurs even within the preparation stage.

eg; traders after a string of losses start tweaking parts of the preparation in order to try and avoid any more losses.

thanks.

[steve46 12]

Steve - while what you teach can certainly help prepare and I agree with good preparation, in your experience what happens when you have a string of losses, or the preparation just seems to be fruitless at times. People then often forget quickly the previous track record of successful entries and some can get gun shy....Especially when there are discretionary elements.

While your students might not find the experience of pulling the trigger as intimidating or compelling - do you have some way of finding out/measuring if this problem occurs even within the preparation stage.

eg; traders after a string of losses start tweaking parts of the preparation in order to try and avoid any more losses.

thanks.

 

An excellent question! First, my environment is unique. I learned how to prepare properly and I cannot remember the last time I was surprised by a long string of losing trades. it just doesn't happen to me or my students.

 

In my experience, the ability to adjust and to find success in the market is all about preparation....in fact it seems to be the main difference between amateurs and pros....specifically amateurs seem to be willing to throw money at a system just because they read that it works on a website....No professional would do that....

 

Finally, a skilled pro is going to take the time to do a Monte Carlo test (or the equivalent) so that he/she can determine (among other things) what the expectation is for distribution of results over time, including consecutive losses and drawdowns.

 

By the way, you've just explained to me in a recent post that you have "17 years" of your own experience trading. So the obvious question is "how is it that you don't aleady know this?"

 

Here is a link to an article that may interest you;

 

http://www.mesasoftware.com/Papers/System%20Evaluation.pdf

 

Good Luck

Steve

Edited June 21, 2011 by steve46

[SIUYA 11]

By the way, you've just explained to me in a recent post that you have "17 years" of your own experience trading. So the obvious question is "how is it that you don't aleady know this?"

 

Here is a link to an article that may interest you;

 

http://www.mesasoftware.com/Papers/System%20Evaluation.pdf

 

Good Luck

Steve

 

by the way.....I was not asking about myself ...... I know when I am tweaking things too much, but pulling the trigger is not my problem - often being too eager to shoot is, but thats a whole other story. :crap:

 

As part of the discussion.....

I was asking how do you know when your students are and do you have plans/idea/etc to stop that? Or is the message just do the prep?

All the monte carlo, preparation and back testing will not necessarily stop folks from being gun shy.

thanks.

[steve46 12]

by the way.....I was not asking about myself ...... I know when I am tweaking things too much, but pulling the trigger is not my problem - often being too eager to shoot is, but thats a whole other story. :crap:

 

As part of the discussion.....

I was asking how do you know when your students are and do you have plans/idea/etc to stop that? Or is the message just do the prep?

All the monte carlo, preparation and back testing will not necessarily stop folks from being gun shy.

thanks.

 

Yes, my comment is that preparing skllfully corrects a lot of problems including this one (hesitation to enter into trades). It also means that the student has the chance to develop a good track record....a record of entering trades and obtaining favorable position and finally it means that when they are wrong they know how to manage not only the risk, but their own emotions. I show people how to do this, but you can't even start unless you know how to prepare.

[SIUYA 11]

so in other words - preparation is key. It will stop/minimise/correct a lot of mental problems.

I can agree with this 100%....

 

But take it one step further for me, be more than than just 1dimensional "prep is essential", which is the point I am trying to get to in this discussion......

 

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

2) do you have any suggestions for people to recognize that their preparation - or their over tweaking of it and looking for the holy grail, is actually doing them more harm than good?

 

This is on the basis of ....too much prep can stop some people from pulling the trigger - they want the perfect setup, are surprised when things dont go their way even after all their prep, they oversize their trades thinking that everything is perfect and they have a plan all perfectly mapped out, but reality has that way of biting hard.

(All the monte carlo simulations in real world trading are not Vegas maths.....too many boffins forget that in their search for perfection)

 

thanks.

[MightyMouse 12]

so in other words - preparation is key. It will stop/minimise/correct a lot of mental problems.

I can agree with this 100%....

 

But take it one step further for me, be more than than just 1dimensional "prep is essential", which is the point I am trying to get to in this discussion......

 

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

2) do you have any suggestions for people to recognize that their preparation - or their over tweaking of it and looking for the holy grail, is actually doing them more harm than good?

 

This is on the basis of ....too much prep can stop some people from pulling the trigger - they want the perfect setup, are surprised when things dont go their way even after all their prep, they oversize their trades thinking that everything is perfect and they have a plan all perfectly mapped out, but reality has that way of biting hard.

(All the monte carlo simulations in real world trading are not Vegas maths.....too many boffins forget that in their search for perfection)

 

thanks.

 

Siuya,

 

Some traders have a method that they researched that they know is right and can call bottoms and tops withing 1-2 points, they can catch the majority of a move, and they are correct 80% of the time. When you learn this method, you do not make mistakes and if you do make a mistake, you know right where the mistake is made and you can correct it without it having an impact on your psyche for the next trade. It is so good that a student who, by definition, is still learning can apply it and know that he his right and thereby avoid the pitfalls of being gun shy like the other 300 million traders who learn to trade.

 

I am not sure why this is not clear and obvious to you.

 

MM

[MadMarketScientist 11]

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

I'm not a teacher but as a student I believe it is necessary to at least step back and look at why the losses are occurring. Maybe the prep is wrong or maybe the timing is off but I would venture to say some tweaking is expected. steve46 would you agree with that?

 

MMS

[SIUYA 11]

Siuya,

 

Some traders have a method that they researched that they know is right and can call bottoms and tops withing 1-2 points, they can catch the majority of a move, and they are correct 80% of the time. When you learn this method, you do not make mistakes and if you do make a mistake, you know right where the mistake is made and you can correct it without it having an impact on your psyche for the next trade. It is so good that a student who, by definition, is still learning can apply it and know that he his right and thereby avoid the pitfalls of being gun shy like the other 300 million traders who learn to trade.

 

I am not sure why this is not clear and obvious to you.

 

MM

 

MM many things are clear and obvious with hindsight, but in assuming your tongue is not in your cheek....

 

1) If as a teacher - how do you know if your students are following the method and dont create issues?

 

I think the turtle trading experiment was interesting in that the method was shown to work...it was simple, it had straightforward rules, all the prep was all carried out and the stats for the previous trading was shown to work - Dennis was successful, and the method could be backtested on a computer.... in other words there was no real reason why every student could not succeed.....and yet not all did.

Curtis Faith was one of the successful ones (at least initially during the experiment and there is even conjecture about weather he was following the rules http://www.turtletrader.com/curtis-faith-performance.html) - and in a nutshell as I read it from his books one of his interpretations as to why others failed is that they basically were gun shy and did not take some of the trades.

 

Maybe as a teacher you dont care.....which is fine in itself - maybe this boils back down to the nature v nurture debate and if trading one persons particular method can really be taught - or weather it really does need to be suited to a particular personality.

 

Interested in feedback from those that teach and charge for this?

Edited June 22, 2011 by SIUYA

[steve46 12]

so in other words - preparation is key. It will stop/minimise/correct a lot of mental problems.

I can agree with this 100%....

 

But take it one step further for me, be more than than just 1dimensional "prep is essential", which is the point I am trying to get to in this discussion......

 

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

2) do you have any suggestions for people to recognize that their preparation - or their over tweaking of it and looking for the holy grail, is actually doing them more harm than good?

 

This is on the basis of ....too much prep can stop some people from pulling the trigger - they want the perfect setup, are surprised when things dont go their way even after all their prep, they oversize their trades thinking that everything is perfect and they have a plan all perfectly mapped out, but reality has that way of biting hard.

 

(All the monte carlo simulations in real world trading are not Vegas maths.....too many boffins forget that in their search for perfection)

 

thanks.

 

OK, since you are asking "for someone else" let me make a couple of suggestions.

First, if a person is really serious about this, sooner or later they will need to find a skilled experienced trader, willing to let them see how it is done....Personally I don't thing you can learn this profession by reading a book, or taking a weekend course or a webinar.....there is just too much detail, and nuance that has to be explained in person....

You ask how I can know that my students are tweaking their prep correctly....and my answer is that I only have a few students and I watch them very carefully....Furthermore in addition to the regular trading session, I hold periodic weekend meetings where we educate the student to make sure that they know just how important it is to be detail oriented.

Since we are few (the class will max out at 20 students) everyone knows whether you are executing properly, whether you are following the discipline, whether you are taking profit correctly and whether you are managing risk...In a small class you can't hid anything....

Finally, all of us (including myself) will be reporting our results on a quarterly basis.

 

I dont' really have the time to wonder whether people are overthinking, overtweaking, or whatever it is that you are suggesting. All I know is that I have been doing this "right" for many years...and when I show others how to do it, if they are motivated and pay attention, they make money....its that simple.

 

Regarding the last part of your question. There are adjustments that have to be made. They are seasonal adjustments and as such, they are no surprise. For example I tell my students that during the summer months we are going to make adjustments to our profit taking rules and we are going to change (slightly) when and how we place our stoploss...When there is no surprise and the adjustments are orderly, the impact is minimal....in fact it is part of what I teach the student to do....adapt to changing conditions...

 

I hope this answers your questions (because we are in process of preparing for fed day)

See you later

 

Steve

[SIUYA 11]

OK, since you are asking "for someone else" let me make a couple of suggestions.

 

you are such a skeptic Steve.

it was like this one time at band camp...and a friend of mine - lets say he was an Iranian...and he wanted to know if something meant he was gay.

 

so it seems in answer to the questions..

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

answer ......you dont - especially when they leave your course/tutelage, and if the feedback is mostly positive after this and no one actually gives feedback during the course they might be having issues then - I guess its working.

 

2) do you have any suggestions for people to recognize that their preparation - or their over tweaking of it and looking for the holy grail, is actually doing them more harm than good?

 

answer....you dont - apart from stick to the preparation and if you are making money then you must be doing something right.

 

.................

Dont get me wrong here Steve I think this makes perfect sense as the ultimate aim here is to make money and why reinvent the wheel. I was more curious as to your ideas/ results as a teacher as it seems that many traders - and it seems this is the case in Randes examples - that often traders who know what they are doing can become gun shy....its not just a new trader issue.....hence my line of questioning.

 

thanks. Enjoy Mr B

[MightyMouse 12]

An excellent question! First, my environment is unique. I learned how to prepare properly and I cannot remember the last time I was surprised by a long string of losing trades. it just doesn't happen to me or my students.

 

Steve

 

Suppose you were a poker player and someone who plays Texas Hold'em told you that he cannot remember the last time he or the people he taught to play poker have lost with a pair of aces in the hole. What would you think?

 

A.) He has been very lucky

 

B.) He is a liar

 

C.) Either A or B is a possible answer

 

D.) He is such a good poker player that when he gets aces he wins.

 

If you are not a poker player and were aspiring to play professionally, you might choose D, but after lots and lots of hands and experience, you learn that D is just not possible.

 

Depending on your people reading skills, you may be able to pinpoint which of A or B it is exactly but it is not necessary to do so since C includes the logical disjunction.

[steve46 12]

you are such a skeptic Steve.

it was like this one time at band camp...and a friend of mine - lets say he was an Iranian...and he wanted to know if something meant he was gay.

 

so it seems in answer to the questions..

1) how do you know as a teacher that your students are not tweaking their preparation after a string of losses....and this maybe causing them issues?

 

answer ......you dont - especially when they leave your course/tutelage, and if the feedback is mostly positive after this and no one actually gives feedback during the course they might be having issues then - I guess its working.

 

2) do you have any suggestions for people to recognize that their preparation - or their over tweaking of it and looking for the holy grail, is actually doing them more harm than good?

 

answer....you dont - apart from stick to the preparation and if you are making money then you must be doing something right.

 

.................

Dont get me wrong here Steve I think this makes perfect sense as the ultimate aim here is to make money and why reinvent the wheel. I was more curious as to your ideas/ results as a teacher as it seems that many traders - and it seems this is the case in Randes examples - that often traders who know what they are doing can become gun shy....its not just a new trader issue.....hence my line of questioning.

 

thanks. Enjoy Mr B

 

I answered your questions carefully. I can only answer from my point of view. How do I know what another teacher is doing? or not doing?

 

In answer to your question about what to do specifically I offered a link to a very well written commentary on testing...apparently it was too much work for you to read and comprehend the text...

 

My answer remains the same. The difference between pros and amateurs is in great part, about preparation....you prepare by testing your system and evaluating the results. You correct what doesn't work (thats called adapting to the environment) and you add risk management. The rest is all about discipline....The kinds of questions that have been asked in your last two posts are very similar to those asked by my students....that is why I am surprised that you suggest that you have 17 years of experience behind you. I have to say I have my hands full with my class in progress....so if you expect me to put on a seminar on the details, I don't have the time or the inclination to do that...sorry.

[SIUYA 11]

steve once again you cant but help imply that everyone else is clearly an idiot.

Its such a shame. You always seem to be defending and defining yourself by putting others down.

.

While in trying to ask some questions about your experiences as a teacher - I did not ask what your opinions of other teaches were, or what they are doing, so not sure where this came from.....

The written commentary on testing was read thankyou. - I have read it previously along with many other articles on testing. I with someone I paid wrote a portfolio backtesting system in Excel, and have also purchased off the shelf systems for portfolio back testing - not the single instrument or pretend portfolio systems often sold.....so your rather condescending and unnecessary comments about apparently being too much work make me wonder and laugh. Plus if thats the best article you can come up with.....sheesh.

The suggestion that I have 17 years experience as opposed to you in one post where you say you have X years (does that mean you have not hit a round number yet??)......well actually it is a fact, and I unlike you am completely able to understand that there are many things I dont know, and would like to learn. I also loose money some times, get ill disciplined and lazy, itchy, hungry and gassy.

I know there are many ways to do things that can be successful and I dont really feed the same need you do to build yourself up by putting others down....but certainly can if its required.

I understand over those 17 human years - not dog years - that the way I do things suits me, is not for everyone and yet at the same time I realise that others can benefit from a free and open discussion of various methods with out condescension, name calling and the like ......

 

Most teachers have no problems with any question and actually encourage even dumb questions, and encourage discussion....the question I ask may seem simple to some, but may help others (like that gay Iranian fellow)

 

So I have no problems in believing you Steve and I can accept that you are a guru trader and I have no real clear evidence other than that - so thats fine, but you do offer clear evidence that you need to do some preparation and learning in your teaching style and social skills

 

At present I have plenty of spare time, all my back testing, preparation and experience occasionally allows me that.

 

and Steve you still miss the point of the whole thread it seems - all the preparation in the world, all the backtests, all the monte carlo simulations, all the magic fairy dust in the world may not prevent issues regarding being gun shy.........but thanks for the input.

Edited June 23, 2011 by MadMarketScientist
no personal attacks please

[steve46 12]

I suspect you are feeling like an idiot because you have exaggerated your credentials and your experience trading.

 

I did not offer an opinion of other teachers, I simply said I had no way of knowing what they were doing or not doing....If you are uncertain about what I have said, I suggest you re-read my post...rather than continuing to mis-represent my comment.

 

I understand your point clearly, however my experience does not support your conclusion....In fact quite the opposite.

 

thanks for your input

Edited June 23, 2011 by steve46

[SIUYA 11]

actually Steve I dont feel like an idiot, but you seem intent on proving yourself to be one....you clearly dont understand my point as your experience closes off every other viable alternative outside of your world, and while your input was appreciated from your experience, there are others, and I think they were mentioned - Randes examples, and the turtles that have different experiences.

and yet you continue to try and belittle people if they dont comply with your narrow little world.

 

My credentials are not exaggerated in any sense of the word, and I am not the one trying to sell my services to others.

Edited June 23, 2011 by SIUYA

[steve46 12]

actually Steve I dont feel like an idiot, but you seem intent on proving yourself to be one....you clearly dont understand my point as your experience closes off every other viable alternative outside of your world, and while your input was appreciated from your experience, there are others, and I think they were mentioned - Randes examples, and the turtles that have different experiences.

and yet you continue to try and belittle people if they dont comply with your narrow little world.

 

My credentials are not exaggerated in any sense of the word, and I am not the one trying to sell my services to others.

 

Like yourself, Rande is selling his own particular concept to the public

I'm not having any, but you may want to spend more time corresponding with him...

Edited June 23, 2011 by steve46

[Rande Howell 10]

Like yourself, Rande is selling his own particular concept to the public

I'm not having any, but you may want to spend more time corresponding with him...

 

Please note that I do not generally promote my services in this forum. My intent is to keep a fairly clean separation between my participation here and my business. These forums provide a great arena to see the struggles of traders as they learn what it takes to trade successfully, both from a method perspective and a psychological perspective. So I participate. I find Siuya an interesting voice, often at odds with my perspective, but also important to my growth as a trader psychologist. His perspective is usually well grounded in experience and performance, so I listen. Whether I like what he says or not. My likes and dislikes are really not important to me. Performance in a domain always trumps my biases (most of the time). And I'm interested in Steve's students performances over time.

Rande Howell