Trader P/L 2010

[brownsfan019 17]

1-7-10: +$510.00

 

Missed a few nice ones on oil. I was a little preoccupied with stuff breaking around here (when it rain it pours) and lost concentration.

[method 10]

Intraday short turned out to be an overnight one. The market looks surprisingly dull. It's either going to make a huge downward move or shoot straight up. It's just calm before the storm methinks

 

returned about 45 euros on the dax.

 

 

btw for some reason I have two accounts on this forum- eric341 & this one. I'll be using this one from now onwards

Edited January 8, 2010 by method

[brownsfan019 17]

So BF are you still working from a capital base of 10k? I thought you would size up about by 5 times since you returned about 500% last year :P

 

I'm just leaving it at 1-2 contracts being traded for purposes here. I thought about doing some adjustments but I just don't have the time right now to do it the right way.

 

Whatever you see me post, you can just multiple good or bad on how many contracts you might be trading if you were mimicking my results. For example, a 10 lot account would have made $5k today.

[Dinerotrader 10]

I'm just leaving it at 1-2 contracts being traded for purposes here. I thought about doing some adjustments but I just don't have the time right now to do it the right way.

 

Whatever you see me post, you can just multiple good or bad on how many contracts you might be trading if you were mimicking my results. For example, a 10 lot account would have made $5k today.

 

If you wouldn't mind sharing your experience with the various futures you trade, what is the largest lot amount you think you could trade on the following futures without having to conceal your trading size from others or without moving the price. In other words, how large can my lot size be on these futures and still trade them like I trade a 1 lot size?

 

Oil

Soybeans

Russel

ES

6E

 

I was considering this today and thought I was a bit out of my league in trying to make a good educated guess. Is there some sort of rule of thumb you can use related to daily volume?

[edabreu 10]

Caught some good moves today.

[gooni 10]

Intraday short turned out to be an overnight one. The market looks surprisingly dull. It's either going to make a huge downward move or shoot straight up. It's just calm before the storm methinks

 

returned about 45 euros on the dax.

 

 

btw for some reason I have two accounts on this forum- eric341 & this one. I'll be using this one from now onwards

 

What's that you're trading there that moves 1 EUR for every point in the DAX? Looks good!

[brownsfan019 17]

If you wouldn't mind sharing your experience with the various futures you trade, what is the largest lot amount you think you could trade on the following futures without having to conceal your trading size from others or without moving the price. In other words, how large can my lot size be on these futures and still trade them like I trade a 1 lot size?

 

Oil

Soybeans

Russel

ES

6E

 

I was considering this today and thought I was a bit out of my league in trying to make a good educated guess. Is there some sort of rule of thumb you can use related to daily volume?

 

IMO the daily volume is only a part of the equation as that volume includes overnight trading. It also is a function of WHEN you are trading - if you trade during high volume times, then you can trade size accordingly. If you trade when it's slow and dead, you can't push too much.

 

During the high volume times, I think you could do the following:

 

Oil: 100

Soybeans: 50

Russel: 100-200

ES: 250-1000

6E: 100

 

And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more.

 

Also this is a function of HOW you enter. If you are all-in at one price and one price only, then you might have to come down a bit on those numbers. But if you can stagger in, then I think you could do that. For example, if the goal is to get long 100 CL, you could buy 25 ct's @ 4 levels or send a mkt order for 25, wait, send a 15 lot order, then a 30, etc.

 

The good news is that you can literally make a good living trading 1-2 ct's if you wanted. I know it's nice to think about 50 or 100 lot orders but it is nice to know that you do not have to do that.

[method 10]

Gooni - CFDs. They are like futures but much less leveraged, which is good for beginners with low capital I guess. Last time I checked they were illegal in the US.

 

Hopefully I can start trading the real deal soon.

[subterfuge 10]

Gooni - CFDs. They are like futures but much less leveraged, which is good for beginners with low capital I guess. Last time I checked they were illegal in the US.

 

Hopefully I can start trading the real deal soon.

 

Looks like a CMC screenshot to me? I used to use them.

Good trading.

[Marsupilami 10]

Caught some good moves today.

 

Wow, outstanding, considering you were trading just one contract each time !

[subterfuge 10]

nice day.

One of my better days. As always just 1 contract.

+517

[Gabe2004 10]

Oil: 100

Soybeans: 50

Russel: 100-200

ES: 250-1000

6E: 100

 

And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more.

 

Maybe a % of the number of contracts traded as a function of a short term MA would be more accurate.

Yesterdays # of contracts traded from the CME:

ZC 125K

ZS 89K

ZW 32K

GBP 89K

CAD 60K

EUR 242K

JPY 109K

ES 1565K

NQ 241K

YM 112K

CL 245K

GC 121K

 

Some of the above are estimates but it seems that the actual and the estimates are within 10%.

 

Note also that the volume depends on the time of day so that has to be taken into account as well.

 

For example if you take ES with a daily volume of 1565K and ZS with 89K >>ZS trades about 5% of the number of contracts ES trades.

You can compare T&S numbers and derive a number to trade from there.

 

Gabe

[Dinerotrader 10]

1/8/10: +890

 

The russel was frustrating today. I finally had to take 2 contracts on a primo position and wait it out. Natural gas had one of those "gimmie" trades BF talks about. Had to quit early today with all the year end work to do. Very happy with my trading today.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Maybe a % of the number of contracts traded as a function of a short term MA would be more accurate.

Yesterdays # of contracts traded from the CME:

ZC 125K

ZS 89K

ZW 32K

GBP 89K

CAD 60K

EUR 242K

JPY 109K

ES 1565K

NQ 241K

YM 112K

CL 245K

GC 121K

 

Some of the above are estimates but it seems that the actual and the estimates are within 10%.

Note also that the volume depends on the time of day so that has to be taken into account as well.

 

For example if you take ES with a daily volume of 1565K and ZS with 89K >>ZS trades about 5% of the number of contracts ES trades.

You can compare T&S numbers and derive a number to trade from there.

 

Gabe

 

I disagree.

 

As I said you cannot simply take a fixed % of overall volume to find what size you can trade. That makes the assumption that the volume being traded is fixed and WHEN you trade is irrelevant, which we know is false.

 

How many contracts you can max out on is 100% a function of WHEN that trade is being put on, regardless of the overall daily volume.

 

Trade during high volume times = more you can trade w/ no influence on the market

 

Trade during low volume times = the easier your hand is shown to those looking for someone to exploit

Not only does it need to be taken into account, it's the primary reason of determining when you can trade size or not. It's the ONLY thing that matters if you are looking to max out size if you want to hide your hand as the original question asked.

[Dinerotrader 10]

IMO the daily volume is only a part of the equation as that volume includes overnight trading. It also is a function of WHEN you are trading - if you trade during high volume times, then you can trade size accordingly. If you trade when it's slow and dead, you can't push too much.

 

During the high volume times, I think you could do the following:

 

Oil: 100

Soybeans: 50

Russel: 100-200

ES: 250-1000

6E: 100

 

And those are ballparks - so while I think you could trade a 100 in the CL, during high volume moves you could probably push that more.

 

Also this is a function of HOW you enter. If you are all-in at one price and one price only, then you might have to come down a bit on those numbers. But if you can stagger in, then I think you could do that. For example, if the goal is to get long 100 CL, you could buy 25 ct's @ 4 levels or send a mkt order for 25, wait, send a 15 lot order, then a 30, etc.

 

The good news is that you can literally make a good living trading 1-2 ct's if you wanted. I know it's nice to think about 50 or 100 lot orders but it is nice to know that you do not have to do that.

 

The big problem I see with entering at higher volume times with a larger order is you don't know if that volume will dry up and you will be left trying to exit a position with very few trades happening.

 

Taking this further; once I get my 100 lot order in on the CL, my understanding is that I also have to figure out how to conceal my stop loss from other seeing it or a large trader might close in to stop me out. Does that mean I can't have my stop loss sitting on my DOM for execution?

[emios 10]

If you're trading that kind of volume: I have three words for you: dark liquidity pool.

[brownsfan019 17]

The big problem I see with entering at higher volume times with a larger order is you don't know if that volume will dry up and you will be left trying to exit a position with very few trades happening.

 

Taking this further; once I get my 100 lot order in on the CL, my understanding is that I also have to figure out how to conceal my stop loss from other seeing it or a large trader might close in to stop me out. Does that mean I can't have my stop loss sitting on my DOM for execution?

 

In theory dinero, if someone knew that you had a 100 lot stop loss order sitting somewhere they could gun for you. In theory.

 

I think this discussion is heading into way off left field and it's not something any of us, myself included, need to be concerned about. When you start making consistent profits with 1 contract and then 2 and then maybe 3 you'll see what I mean. It's going to take years (if ever) for any of us little guys to be pushing 100 CL's at a time.

 

So it's an interesting discussion about theories and guesstimates, but I think we should nip it now. If you want to open your own thread and run with it there, please do. I just don't want the p/l thread to get way off track. I can move these posts to the thread if you start one.

[method 10]

Looks like a CMC screenshot to me? I used to use them.

Good trading.

 

Yeah it's CMC. What market/s do you trade?

 

BTW no trade today

[subterfuge 10]

Yeah it's CMC. What market/s do you trade?

 

BTW no trade today

 

ES mainly, although am trading more and more currency futures at the moment.

[JEHs 10]

Trading P&L, week 1/4-1/8/10.

[Cory2679 11]

...I'll post weekly P/L...

 

Hey guys,

 

I almost forgot to post my weekly P/L over here!

 

It's probably because I don't even want to think about this week's P/L.

 

Trading went all right, I just made a stupid mistake on my platform and paid for it:

 

...last night, I had gone short on the EJ (longer term, PT1 @ about 60 ticks), and had thought I moved my stop to BE but I made a careless mistake and entered the wrong number. Anyways, the end of the story is that my account is now at $201.19.

 

I'm VERY, VERY angry with myself. If there was an award for the dumbest mistake a trader's ever made, I truly think I've earned it. It's probably best that I didn't take any trades today (due to my mental state after seeing the loss) and that I just demo trade tomorrow and have the weekend to recharge and get back on track.

 

I think my state of mind is probably the worst possible for trading right now. I'm a mess. :o I had my mistakes from Tuesday, which at least still left me up about 15% for the week. But, now this?! I think "bad" emotions in trading can definitely have a snowball effect.

 

I've decided to refund my account to put it at $250 again, and "start over" next week. This week has been an utter disaster. I'm sure anyone who was cheering me on in my progress has got to be pretty disappointed.

 

BUT, I'm going to try to stay positive...I think there's a lot for me to be positive about right now in my trading. Starting FRESH next week!

 

I've posted two images - the true end of the week P/L (with the deposit to make it even again), and the "before disaster" P/L.

 

-Cory

[subterfuge 10]

+650

Possibly another new best day? 2nd new best day this year, lol.

Edited January 11, 2010 by subterfuge

[Dinerotrader 10]

1/11/09: +487

 

Natural gas decided to break major support so I had to take the hit. Great R/R on it so it was the right trade but it didn't work out. Oil looked choppy enough that I decided that I should trail a little closer today but hindsight is telling me otherwise. Good day though for me especially since it seemed like everything was in slowmo for a while. Corn made the move I was expecting but I was moving so slow I had to cut it short. Had to quit at 11:00 ET.

 

Nice trading Subterfuge!

 

SIM results

[subterfuge 10]

definitely a new record now.

Im due a beating soon but ill enjoy this whilst it lasts, lol.

[edabreu 10]

All I need is 2c, a little volume, some extended runs if you have them...and I am good.