Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

brownsfan019

Trader P/L 2010

Recommended Posts

I don't want to become a trader that relies upon big moves to survive since those don't always happen, I am not always going to catch them, and I want to be able to take vacations without worrying about missing the big moves. My new philosophy is going to be based around being able to make money day in and day out on swings that always occur.

 

Truer words could not be spoken. I used to have a sign on my desk that referred to trading being like a bricklayer - come in and do the same setups every day, day in and day out. Note - bricklayers don't try to build a house in 1 day. They know to complete the house on schedule they have to come in and do an honest days work every day.

 

I have not been posting recently because I have been taking a bath this year. After ending 2009 with consistant profits of $350 - $1000/day I decided to be a rock star in 2010. Go figure. After having a year (2009) in which my largest losing day was $350, I have already had 3 losing days of over $1000 in 2010.

 

Needless to say, for me it is time to get back to being a bricklayer.

 

Today was my first day of SIM trading in over 2 years. Figures it would be my best trading of the new year! Life is queer with its twists and turns as every one of us one day learns...

 

+$900 on 2 trades

($400 in CL and $500 in ZN)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not been posting recently because I have been taking a bath this year.)

 

I hope losses don't deter people from posting here. Losses and learning periods are part of the game. No reason not to continue posting even if you have a down period. Nobody's posting here to impress anyone, what would that get you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

attachment.php?attachmentid=19525&stc=1&d=1266951595

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19526&stc=1&d=1266951595

 

I thought I would try to start posting my net profit after commissions to help reinforce my need to keep the trading at a minimum and post my running week total. My emotions got me today. Got out of a short that went straight down after oil coiled up at open and I just started trading wildly after that. Should have put my head down for a few moments and repeated a mantra or something after that missed trade.

 

Plan is to go live trading in mid April if consistent profitability becomes the norm. Why trade live if I can't make money on SIM.

5aa70fd884997_2-23-201002.png.47bd65365efd906fd3cd9943c67bf713.png

5aa70fd888679_2-23-201001.png.7b897757fe089c4723bac1c45b24640c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I thought I would try to start posting my net profit after commissions.

As far as I know every non-member pays 2,90/RT for CL plus NFA. Taking into account additional fees for your broker, 3,5 USD sounds a bit too good ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As far as I know every non-member pays 2,90/RT for CL plus NFA. Taking into account additional fees for your broker, 3,5 USD sounds a bit too good ;)

 

You're right. I checked my live trades and I paid a little less than $4 RT so I'll assume an even $4. I'll change that. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2-22-10: +$670.00

 

2-23-10: +$220.00

 

Mon good, Tue was alright. Weird day on oil today from my point of view - felt like an inventory day where not much movement off the open and then bam, off it went. Felt and looked like inventory even though inventory is on Wed.

 

That's something that you can really only learn and feel by being in the markets daily and seeing what is the norm and what is not.

2-22-2010.png.6a0988c4751db20428c7dd86bddb93a0.png

2-23-2010.png.63eb17bec30cad7c24af9a3985c2a3c9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SIM

-$156

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19555&stc=1&d=1267041956

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19556&stc=1&d=1267041956

 

 

Crappy day. 2 errors in trading which hurt me bad. First error, I clicked the wrong side of my mouse in a trade which exited me at market instead of moved my stop so I got out of a nice early winner. Second error, I was on a different time chart than I thought I was on for 30 minutes and that caused some bad trades. Luckily, once I found that out, I fixed the problem and traded profitably after that. I controled the emotions better even with the errors so that was good.

Trading after 12:00 ET is so boring. My overall trading plan is to definitely be done trading by then. That is 10:00 am my time so that would be a great time to be done with my work day. Get to the office, trade from 7:00 to 10:00, review the trades for the day, get lunch, hit the gym and then go home. Someday, Brownsfan, I'll be living the dream too.:)

5aa70fd9928dc_2-24-201002.png.d0081f14a0ca88f5db046949715cee58.png

5aa70fd995464_2-24-201005.png.993f88b24afbc15cbd8dc5923b45a62f.png

Edited by Dinerotrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+$1244. Another nice day. Man, I could really get use to this. But, every time I do, WHAM!!!!! Back in the gutter I go.

 

Jason

 

"The sweet just isn't as sweet without the bitter baby!"

 

Thanks for continuing to share with us and its awesome to see your system performing and making new equity peaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes. You are right on the money with that quote.... And..... You are most welcome.

 

Jason

 

"The sweet just isn't as sweet without the bitter baby!"

 

Thanks for continuing to share with us and its awesome to see your system performing and making new equity peaks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SIM

+$342

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19582&stc=1&d=1267115498

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19583&stc=1&d=1267115498

 

After suffering through a 30 tick range on oil for 1.5 hours I am happy with the result. A little emotionally drained from all the back and forth and having hairtrigger exits so I am calling it a day.

 

I have done my fair share of complaining about trend days but this is not what I was hoping for.:)

 

Here's a chart of today's range for those not trading oil.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19585&stc=1&d=1267116291

5aa70fda33f9b_2-25-201003.png.8548df132ee2bcc3d45b7bb9da19f5b6.png

5aa70fda367d3_2-25-201002.png.da65cd063f86d5f6f876b21d2ec6735c.png

5aa70fda41e07_2-25-201004.thumb.png.5d941ab5ae7cadb1a8c362c722559601.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+$1361. Not a bad day, but one hell of a fight. Was down like crazy in the morning and then got a huge run up in my profitability later in the day, only to give half of it back again.... I hate these kind-a days....

 

I've attached my daily profitability graph, so you can see my times of sadness and elation (all in a nice little 4 hour stretch).......

 

Jason

5aa70fda9b981_2-25-20103-01-27PM.png.38d75609415b4faa4be548294055002d.png

2-25-2010-Equity.thumb.png.f87c8b52e9bcf63636e9dbfbd2161d53.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SIM

-$94

 

Week P/L total: +$676

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19660&stc=1&d=1267205371

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19661&stc=1&d=1267205371

 

Well, too many trades today. For some reason, setups were 50/50 today. I still need to do some post trading research to figure out what was going on but happy to come out just paying commissions and with a positive week. I am liking focusing on the net profit since that is the reality of the results.

 

My long term S/R level of 78.78 provided a good outlook for trades yesterday and today. 78.21 turned out to be an important level. I try to keep my S/R levels to a minimum on my charts just to give me a roadmap for price and I had decided to leave off 78.21 which was a mistake. It would have certainly given me a better picture of what to expect if I had had it on my chart the past 3 days.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19664&stc=1&d=1267206497

5aa70fdc3a466_2-26-201002.png.820097a59e8ae28066d6dd9addf76aec.png

5aa70fdc3cf53_2-26-201001.png.0ef6109a1b41dfcc4e7414ca666255aa.png

5aa70fdc4a480_2-26-201004.thumb.png.e317e88dffb38c3574c1dfd9431fefd8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... I still need to do some post trading research to figure out what was going on

 

I tend to believe that you would do much better trading fewer markets.

 

78.22 was a key level this week, and with CL, any recent prior high/prior low can be a level at which one can look to fade or play for breakouts, though it can get a bit helter skelter at times, such as this morning. I had 12 trades today, and nine were CL because price could not figure out whether it wanted to break clean with the 78.83 or fall away from it, so I was in and out five times before the rally finally got in gear. Here is my ninja demo results from today - each of these trades, except for 5 frantic stops and reverses in CL this morning were posted in the real time thread:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19666&stc=1&d=1267209237

 

 

 

My daughter had a snow day today (again), and she had a blast clicking chart trader buttons as I was shouting "Buy Market" "Sell Market" "close" "reverse" (It was all I could do to get my own orders off - between CL's fluctuations above and below 78.83 and the two of us laughing so hard I had tears in my eyes and I could neither stand nor sit in my chair.

 

At any rate, those numbers above are from trading one contract of CL and one contract of the 6E at a time. That, my friends, is trading for infinite yield. You do no need to be over leveraged to make decent money in this game (and for what its worth, though I traded some larger size in my real account on the 6E, I was only doing a one lot on CL). And you do not need to make it every day. I traded one lot for a long time, and my broker loved the fact that he made more in commish off me in a year than any ten of the guys who open accounts with him, insist on swinging 10 lots in 10 different markets, and blowing up, never to be heard from again. I remember apologizing to him one time for trading so small, and he said "no problem at all, you''re one of the few clients I have who actually makes money."

 

If you were to focus on one or two markets only, you'd be better able to to do a thorough prep before the trading day, and be better positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that arise.

 

One other thing, Dinero - you seem preoccupied with "per day" profitability. You do not need to make $X hundred/day. You do not need to trade every day. There are days where I sit here for 8-10 hours and I get nothing. That is how this game is. If you decide you "need" $2500/week, does it matter if you make $1800 of it on one day, then losing $300, then losing $600, then making making $0 (no trades) and then making $1600? How about this - does it matter if you are down $1000 one week, and then down $900 the next week, and then down $400 the third week before you finally start moving toward profitability again, and you finish the month up 12K? Why does it have to be $500/day?

 

You are going to end up putting too much pressure on yourself to perform everyday with a profit. What is worse, you will condition your wife to the same expectations. What then happens when you hit your first multi-week draw down?

 

It will not be pretty, and you will not recover.

 

If, however, you condition yourself (and your wife) to monthly and quarterly expectations, then that first multi-week draw down, while perhaps disappointing, should at least be emotionally manageable, and you will have a shot at maintaining the poise necessary trade through it.

 

One other thing, I do not know how much you are funding your account with, and it is none of my business and I do not care. But before you go live, decide on a fixed amount you are willing to lose before you stop trading. For example, suppose you have a 10K account (it doesn't matter whether it is 50K or 3K, let's just use 10K for the example). Decide that if you find yourself down 2K, you will stop live trading, take off one week completly without even lookng at achart, and then spend one week demo trading before going live again. And here is the thing - once you lose 2K, stop. But do not stop live trading so long as you have not hit the kill switch level. Have a loss limit. Trade live so long as it is not hit. This can be a trailing limit as well based upon closed week ending equity. If you find yourself up 6K at the end of week one, you still have a 2k kill switch, but it is 2K below your cweek ending equity close (not your equity high, your equity close).

 

Anyway, I've watched you here for going on a year - if anyone has done the work and shown the commitment, its you. Just look at how many have come and gone from the Reading Charts and the PnL threads alone over the course of the last year. You ought to be one who makes it, so don't short circuit all of your hard work by trading too many markets and burdening yourself with a daily profit objective.

 

And for crying out loud, get live before your son is born in May - the last thing you want to do is go live at the same time your wife is recovering and your family is adjust to a new little one.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70fdc5479a_2010-02-26NinjaSimLog1.jpg.08a34b762c5f90c5bb8f23065205841f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for post Thales. Its always nice to get your take on things.

 

You ought to be one who makes it, so don't short circuit all of your hard work by trading too many markets and burdening yourself with a daily profit objective.

 

Last week I decided to only trade the CL with occasionally looking at Nat Gas to see if anything great is going on there. I am sticking to that so no worries about trading too many markets.

 

Daily profits.....

I don't have a daily profit goal. Right now I am more focused on trying to quit trading for the day at the right time if I am up or down. I do have a goal to average $600 per day because I need to be averaging that in order to justify leaving my job and trusty paycheck. I am only trading 1 contract though so if my average is $300 that is okay, I'll just trade 2 contracts.

 

Here is the deal with big swings in profits. I was okay with the idea of having big up days and big down days until I realized 2 things.

 

1. I will often overtrade in an effort to make sure try to catch the big move of the day. I was so focused on catching the HOD or LOD that I would sometimes have 5-10 trades at the level where I thought that would happen.

Today was overtraded so I am going back through to correct that.

 

2. If I don't trade on a day that has the big moves that make me money I'll not have that offsetting great day to counter the losing days. Which means I will constantly be worried if I don't trade one day that I am missing the big profit day. That would bring a lot of stress to days off from trading which is when I don't want any stress. I want to know I can pull money out of the markets on most days.

 

The idea of trading like your friend who is only catching the big moves on trending days sounded good to me until I realized that he can't miss those days or he his month's income will be in trouble. What if he sick one day, wants to take a vacation or something. He might miss one of the few days he can make money from.

 

Anyway, I don't think I know the answer or that I am right but that's the current argument going on in my head. I'll keep thinking through this though.

 

Trading live

I want to make sure I am showing some consistent profits before trading live. How could I ever expect to make money live if I can't on SIM. I have also been refining and changing my trading over the past 6 months as I learn/make mistakes/realize new things so each time I make some changes I start the clock over on proving my profit consistency. Another thing is that I still have too many days in which I make errors in my trading. By error I don't mean losing, I mean click the wrong mouse button or place my stop at where I think is below the swing but is actually at the swing low so I get stopped out too early.

 

I am currently planning on putting $15,000 in my account to trade live.

 

I am still getting used to the method changes I made to my trading strategy on Monday so hopefully next week will be better.

 

Anyway, I've watched you here for going on a year - if anyone has done the work and shown the commitment, its you. Just look at how many have come and gone from the Reading Charts and the PnL threads alone over the course of the last year.

 

I am committed to becoming a full time trader but sometimes I read posts from you, Brownsfan, Bathrobe, Blowfish, Kiwi, etc. and realize that I am a very new player to this game so why should I think I can become profitable so quickly. I work hard but this one of the hardest games to play and win at. I'd like to be live in April before my new son is born but if I have anything it is definitely patience. If more waiting and practicing is required, so be it.

Edited by Dinerotrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is just a fantastic post. In all respects (including laughing with your daughter during the trading day). I love it!

 

Jason

 

I tend to believe that you would do much better trading fewer markets.

 

78.22 was a key level this week, and with CL, any recent prior high/prior low can be a level at which one can look to fade or play for breakouts, though it can get a bit helter skelter at times, such as this morning. I had 12 trades today, and nine were CL because price could not figure out whether it wanted to break clean with the 78.83 or fall away from it, so I was in and out five times before the rally finally got in gear. Here is my ninja demo results from today - each of these trades, except for 5 frantic stops and reverses in CL this morning were posted in the real time thread:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=19666&stc=1&d=1267209237

 

 

 

My daughter had a snow day today (again), and she had a blast clicking chart trader buttons as I was shouting "Buy Market" "Sell Market" "close" "reverse" (It was all I could do to get my own orders off - between CL's fluctuations above and below 78.83 and the two of us laughing so hard I had tears in my eyes and I could neither stand nor sit in my chair.

 

At any rate, those numbers above are from trading one contract of CL and one contract of the 6E at a time. That, my friends, is trading for infinite yield. You do no need to be over leveraged to make decent money in this game (and for what its worth, though I traded some larger size in my real account on the 6E, I was only doing a one lot on CL). And you do not need to make it every day. I traded one lot for a long time, and my broker loved the fact that he made more in commish off me in a year than any ten of the guys who open accounts with him, insist on swinging 10 lots in 10 different markets, and blowing up, never to be heard from again. I remember apologizing to him one time for trading so small, and he said "no problem at all, you''re one of the few clients I have who actually makes money."

 

If you were to focus on one or two markets only, you'd be better able to to do a thorough prep before the trading day, and be better positioned to take advantage of the opportunities that arise.

 

One other thing, Dinero - you seem preoccupied with "per day" profitability. You do not need to make $X hundred/day. You do not need to trade every day. There are days where I sit here for 8-10 hours and I get nothing. That is how this game is. If you decide you "need" $2500/week, does it matter if you make $1800 of it on one day, then losing $300, then losing $600, then making making $0 (no trades) and then making $1600? How about this - does it matter if you are down $1000 one week, and then down $900 the next week, and then down $400 the third week before you finally start moving toward profitability again, and you finish the month up 12K? Why does it have to be $500/day?

 

You are going to end up putting too much pressure on yourself to perform everyday with a profit. What is worse, you will condition your wife to the same expectations. What then happens when you hit your first multi-week draw down?

 

It will not be pretty, and you will not recover.

 

If, however, you condition yourself (and your wife) to monthly and quarterly expectations, then that first multi-week draw down, while perhaps disappointing, should at least be emotionally manageable, and you will have a shot at maintaining the poise necessary trade through it.

 

One other thing, I do not know how much you are funding your account with, and it is none of my business and I do not care. But before you go live, decide on a fixed amount you are willing to lose before you stop trading. For example, suppose you have a 10K account (it doesn't matter whether it is 50K or 3K, let's just use 10K for the example). Decide that if you find yourself down 2K, you will stop live trading, take off one week completly without even lookng at achart, and then spend one week demo trading before going live again. And here is the thing - once you lose 2K, stop. But do not stop live trading so long as you have not hit the kill switch level. Have a loss limit. Trade live so long as it is not hit. This can be a trailing limit as well based upon closed week ending equity. If you find yourself up 6K at the end of week one, you still have a 2k kill switch, but it is 2K below your cweek ending equity close (not your equity high, your equity close).

 

Anyway, I've watched you here for going on a year - if anyone has done the work and shown the commitment, its you. Just look at how many have come and gone from the Reading Charts and the PnL threads alone over the course of the last year. You ought to be one who makes it, so don't short circuit all of your hard work by trading too many markets and burdening yourself with a daily profit objective.

 

And for crying out loud, get live before your son is born in May - the last thing you want to do is go live at the same time your wife is recovering and your family is adjust to a new little one.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-$340. A pretty good day, considering I was down over $1K earlier in the day. +$5874 for the week, so I'm ticked pink with that. Attached is my 2010 P/L graph, just to show (like Thales mentioned) that you can certainly have long stretches of miserable trading. The entire last 3 weeks of Jan were wretched for me..... I also attached my 2010 (per trade) stats just for fun.....

 

Jason

5aa70fdcd2d7c_2-26-20104-26-08PM.png.4cca8255cbbe941d30c26bf1c7d236bd.png

2010-PNL.thumb.png.fafd4eb28c6cba32ef0aaac5c6e675c7.png

2010-PerTrade-PNL.thumb.png.b73737225c409c0f88441713820e83c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If, however, you condition yourself (and your wife) to monthly and quarterly expectations, then that first multi-week draw down, while perhaps disappointing, should at least be emotionally manageable, and you will have a shot at maintaining the poise necessary trade through it.

 

This is an important part of my planning. My wife is very used to the semi monthly bank deposit from the steady job which provides a warm blanket of security to her daily living. Finding a way to transition to income that fluctuates without that taking away her security blanket will be tricky unless I am just making money hand over fist. :)

 

A monthly income report or something like that would probably be best. Or maybe I'll just tell her how much I made only on the days I make money sort of as a fluffing of the security blanket to make sure she knows its there.;)

 

I'm curious how others have dealt with this issue if they have significant others. Maybe I'll have to start another thread for this issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is an important part of my planning. My wife is very used to the semi monthly bank deposit from the steady job which provides a warm blanket of security to her daily living. Finding a way to transition to income that fluctuates without that taking away her security blanket will be tricky unless I am just making money hand over fist. :)

 

A monthly income report or something like that would probably be best. Or maybe I'll just tell her how much I made only on the days I make money sort of as a fluffing of the security blanket to make sure she knows its there.;)

 

I'm curious how others have dealt with this issue if they have significant others. Maybe I'll have to start another thread for this issue.

 

When I first started trading futures and was unprofitable, I gave my girlfriend daily P/L reports initially. This added to stress, trades I should not have taken and over trading; I would not recommend a daily p/l report to your wife unless this is what you both want. Some other type of reporting would be better, maybe monthly. We obviously had no kids and our finances were separate. We did live together though and this created a lot of fighting and is also a contributing factor to our eventual breakup......just my 2 cents on that. :2c: Hope it helps some.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I am currently planning on putting $15,000 in my account to trade live.

 

 

I for one subscribe to the philosophy of the late George Lane (father of Stochastic) that you should never give 1 broker more than $5000 at a time. If you are trading 1 or 2 lots 5k is plenty and when you make profits withdraw regularly. If your starting with 15k open 3 separate accounts and only trade 1 at a time.

 

Just my 2¢

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My daughter had a snow day today (again), and she had a blast clicking chart trader buttons as I was shouting "Buy Market" "Sell Market" "close" "reverse" (It was all I could do to get my own orders off - between CL's fluctuations above and below 78.83 and the two of us laughing so hard I had tears in my eyes and I could neither stand nor sit in my chair.

 

Classic!

 

I always make money when my boys are home during the day because they see the painfully obvious. Dad - why are you selling when the chart is going up? Shouldn't you be buying?

 

But I am way to nervous to actually let them hit the buttons...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I for one subscribe to the philosophy of the late George Lane (father of Stochastic) that you should never give 1 broker more than $5000 at a time. If you are trading 1 or 2 lots 5k is plenty and when you make profits withdraw regularly. If your starting with 15k open 3 separate accounts and only trade 1 at a time.

 

Just my 2¢

 

Margin for oil and natural gas is about $3,000 a piece on OEC.

 

I only trade 1 lot at a time but I want to make sure I am okay with margin if I end up needing a trade on natural gas and oil at the same time with other possible order sitting on the DOM. I am not sure if OEC requires you to have double the margin if you have 2 orders on the DOM, like a buy stop and sell stop on either side of a channel. I'll have to find this out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 19th December 2024.   Federal Reserve Sparks NASDAQ’s Sharpest Selloff of 2024!   The NASDAQ fell more than 3.60% after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but gave hawkish comments. The stock market saw its largest decline witnessed in 2024 so far, as investors opted to cash in profits and not risk in the short-medium term. What did Chairman Powell reveal, and how does it impact the NASDAQ? The NASDAQ Falls To December Lows After Fed Guidance! The NASDAQ and US stock market in general saw a considerable decline after the press conference of the Federal Reserve. The USA100 ended the day 3.60% lower and saw only 1 of its 100 stocks avoid a decline. Of the most influential stocks the worst performers were Tesla (-8.28%), Broadcom (-6.91%) and Amazon (-4.60%).     When monitoring the broader stock market, similar conditions are seen confirming the investor sentiment is significantly lower and not solely related to the tech industry. The worst performing sectors are the housing and banking sectors. However, investors should also note that the decline was partially due to a build-up of profits over the past months. As a result, investors could easily sell and reduce exposure to cash in profits and lower their risk appetite. Analysts note that despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, the Chairman provided a positive outlook. He highlighted optimism for the economy and the employment sector. Therefore, many analysts continue to believe that investors will buy the dip, even if it’s not imminent. A Hawkish Federal Reserve And Powell’s Guidance Even though traditional economics suggests a rate cut benefits the stock market, the market had already priced in the cut. As a result, the rate cut could no longer influence prices. Investors are now focusing on how the Federal Reserve plans to cut in 2025. This is what triggered the selloff and the decline. Investors were looking for indications of 3-4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and for the first cut to be in March. However, analysts advise that the forward guidance by the Chairman, Jerome Powell, clearly indicates 2 rate adjustments. In addition to this, analysts believe the Fed will now cut next in May 2025. The average expectation now is that the Federal Reserve will cut 0.25% on two occasions in 2025. The Fed also advised that it is too early to know the effect of tariffs and “when the path is uncertain, you go slower”. This added to the hawkish tone of the central bank. However, surveys indicate that 15% of analysts believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates at a faster pace. As a result, the US Dollar Index rose 1.25% and Bond Yields to a 7-month high. For investors, this makes other investment categories more attractive and stocks more expensive for foreign investors. However, the average decline the NASDAQ has seen before investors buy the dip is 13% ($19,320). This will also be a key level for investors if the NASDAQ continues to decline. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.       Key Takeaways: A hawkish Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% and indicates only 2 rate cuts in 2025! The stock market witnesses its worst day of 2024 due to the Fed’s hawkish forward guidance. Economists do not expect a rate cut before May 2025. Housing and bank stocks fell more than 4%. Investors are cashing in their gains and not looking to risk while the Fed is unlikely to cut again until May 2025. The US Dollar Index rises close to its highest level since November 2022. US Bond Yields also rise to their highest since May 2024. The NASDAQ’s average decline in 2024 before investors opt to purchase the dip is 13%. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • SNAP stock at 11.38 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?SNAP
    • DLTR Dollar Tree stock watch, pull back to 70.32 support area with bullish indicators, also watch DG at https://stockconsultant.com/?DLTR
    • AKBA Akebia Therapeutics stock, nice trend with pull back to 1.87 support area and bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?AKBA
    • CFLT Confluent stock watch, good trend with a pull back to 31.73 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CFLT
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.