Beginning of the 2nd Wave? -- Dubai Shock

[Tams 20]

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46b4065c-d9f7-11de-b2d5-00144feabdc0.html

 

 

this can be worse than the subprime bust.

[pizzamad 10]

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

 

this can be worse than the subprime bust.

 

This is the beginning of the next phase of the bust, and I agree, it will be worse than Sept 08 to March 09 for stocks, Gold, Oil.

What will go up ? The dollar !

Why ? Because people can't get credit and they need cash to survive, so they will sell assets to get dollars. Assets will fall in price (more deflation).

Watch the short covering on the dollar kick in when it gets past 76. This will accelerate equity/gold/oil falls.

Buckle up guys, things are gonna get real nasty. :fight:

Forget the Christmas rally. The rally from March to last Monday (11/23) was a bear market rally.

One day you'll be able to buy stuff for 10c on the dollar - hang in there.

 

P

[Grey1 10]

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

 

this can be worse than the subprime bust.

 

I have now read many of the internal over night reports from ( JPM .Goldman .MLynch ) and the problem is not as big as an average trader thinks , of course the spill over effect within UAE is not some thing one could over look but I doubt if this is going to be a next leg down ,, I feel fear element is un warranted and the market should soon continue the move to upside, ( as early as mid next week ) ...I am thinking of going LONG few top quality stocks such as AAPL ,AMZN ,BUCY mid week and hold them till End of DEC..

 

Program Trading :--

 

Most program trading use neural net ( dynamic pattern recognition ) and they are dumb in a way, they don't understand the reason for the move but still the move is seen as a down ward sell off and a sell off from highs, is very bearish ( even if we assume the sell off from high is bearish the market has to come back to near the previous high for Double top formation before major correction ) , As a result most intra day activity for the next few days will be on the short side but the fundamental reason for continuation of the previous trend should prevail and we should be above 10500 by xmas,, ( all in my opinion ) ,.

 

FA explains the reason behind a move TA is blind to the reason and only sees the move,,, don't bet your farm on TA only because if you do then you are setting your farm on fire ,, ( IMHO ) of course

 

Grey1

 

IMHO this will not be any where near the subprime bust

[DugDug 10]

agree with you Grey in terms of it will most likely not be as big or serious.

BUT it definitely shows things are not over.

is it a lobster pot? (a great expression meaning if you throw out a lobster pot and you catch one lobster chances are there are other also there - its just that you cant see them)

 

I think Dubai was always a bubble and hence its problems will be particularly bad anyway.

For my 2 cents on the market I follow the technicals - and this just makes me skew every thing to the short side. thats all.

[Tams 20]

Yes, Dubai was always a bubble.

They have little oil, little of anything...

yet they made it big and opulent.

It will be interesting to see how things unfold...

[BlowFish 10]

Could of equally have posted this in the VSA section (though having been the most active part of the forum it now seems the most dormant).

 

I was at breakfirst this morning and over heard a couple on the next table flicking through the papers and discussing this. It got me thinking about one of the key tenets of VSA and other conspiracy theorists (only joking VSA guys). The idea goes along the lines that bad news gives an opportunity for accumulation at knock down prices. Seems to me that it was pretty common knowledge that Dubai inc. was in trouble some while ago. Anyway to get to my point I wonder if this is a case of sell the rumour and buy the news? Guess I should have a look on youtube and see whether master trader and god emperor GH has to say on the subject.

 

I was sceptical of a resort in the desert in the first place though Las Vegas seems to do OK.

[Tams 20]

when the going gets tough,

the tough goes shopping...

[PeterBrazel 10]

Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

[diablo272 10]

Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

 

I agree for the most part. Dubai is not a cause, but a symptom.

[estate1997 10]

It seems that every time the Fed sells sells a boat load of bonds the market drops on bad news and then bounces back up. Just another way to create money.

Run market up. Sell. Buy bonds. Repeat till system fails.

[thetatrader1520887476 10]

Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

 

Better read "The Shadows of Power" by James Perloff and study the Council on Foreign Relations. Because they would really like to end true Capitalism as shown by their actions. not by my opinions.

 

We are going to see much much worse things to come. I am not a perma bear but

 

 

$ straight down + Market straight up. doesn't = New bull market.

[Tams 20]

at this hour, Hong Kong is up...

 

but the analysts are not optimistic.

[DugDug 10]

most expensive words in the English language - "this time its different"

[sscott 10]

Just parked my entire 401k in cash today. Gonna wait out next month and see what happens....

[Grey1 10]

I have now read many of the internal over night reports from ( JPM .Goldman .MLynch ) and the problem is not as big as an average trader thinks , of course the spill over effect within UAE is not some thing one could over look but I doubt if this is going to be a next leg down ,, I feel fear element is un warranted and the market should soon continue the move to upside, ( as early as mid next week ) ...I am thinking of going LONG few top quality stocks such as AAPL ,AMZN ,BUCY mid week and hold them till End of DEC..

 

Program Trading :--

 

Most program trading use neural net ( dynamic pattern recognition ) and they are dumb in a way, they don't understand the reason for the move but still the move is seen as a down ward sell off and a sell off from highs, is very bearish ( even if we assume the sell off from high is bearish the market has to come back to near the previous high for Double top formation before major correction ) , As a result most intra day activity for the next few days will be on the short side but the fundamental reason for continuation of the previous trend should prevail and we should be above 10500 by xmas,, ( all in my opinion ) ,.

 

FA explains the reason behind a move TA is blind to the reason and only sees the move,,, don't bet your farm on TA only because if you do then you are setting your farm on fire ,, ( IMHO ) of course

 

Grey1

 

IMHO this will not be any where near the subprime bust

 

The market seems to have now discounted the DUBAI's problem and getting ready to continue its previous up trend ,, I feel the up trend move should exhaust in around 4 weeks time with a spike in DOW to above and a sell off from high . The market will then look for a catalyst to retrace to below 10000...( IMHO ) ..

 

The equity market is trading well above its VWAP and most institutional traders know this ,, as a result they will be selling / reducing their long position by selling into the spike...

 

Grey1

[Tams 20]

Debt disaster fears rumble from Athens to London

Game of chicken for bond spreads: Will E.U. honor 'no bailout' clause?

 

 

Debt disaster fears rumble from Athens to London - MarketWatch

 

 

Investors have rushed to sell Greek bonds since the newly elected government of George Papandreou made a startling revelation: the deficit will soar to over 12% of gross domestic product this year, well above previous official projections.

 

Greece's predicament has escalated concerns about contagion in other European countries whose finances are in poor shape. Just this month, the ratings of Greece have been cut both by Fitch Ratings, and, late Wednesday, by Standard & Poor's, and major agencies have warned Spain and Portugal of possible cuts.