Week 48

[cowpip 10]

You got your spies out buddy? LOL.

 

LOL! We just had to follow the trail of Jimmy Choo's. LOL!

 

 

I'll leave all the debating to those who have the time to study it December is the month to crank up the credit card a/c - the more $$'s which hit the a/c, the more Jimmy Choo's I can snaffle LOL.

 

Right on! I find it interesting to read what they have to say, but have learned the hard way that they know no more about what the market will do than the rest of us. I've observed that those who follow the herd through close price action observations will almost always be the most successful. Those who make wild speculations based on fundamentals alone will find the road rather bumpy.

 

Thanks for your comments. I'll throw a load of Jimmy Choo's your way in return.

[Anna-Maria 10]

It's not difficult to see why the Buck is getting slapped of late, given the heavy tone of the $ Index.

 

The trading nations of the Eurozone & Japan account for approx 65% of the weighting in this basket of FX activity, with Sterling adding around 12%...& the directional bias (particularly as it encounters key s&r levels) of the Index can add credance to your analysis when looking to weigh up continuation/reversal possibilities at key levels.

 

It's hotting up at a couple of these lower levels & the closing ticks will certainly be on the radar of the big swing players - especially as the Euro & Cable are nudging their current (prev) resistance barriers.

 

Yen is also on the trot, attacking the early Sept resistance zones around 115.80-116.

 

115.50 is the 38% zone of the early summer move from 109 to 120, & should that level give way, it opens up the Aug 4 lows @ 114.0

 

These levels offer some pretty decent opportunities into years end if the Index pops thru & backs further away from these near term supports.

 

 

[torero 10]

Long 9159, ascending triangle consolidation. Looking to target exit near 9250.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

That's a cool entry torero

 

The 15m higher low & accompanying bar prints at the half prime sure speak the same language around your entry too, with good r/r.

 

I got today's S1 down below most of the y'days activity, further confirming the upside continuation potential thru the Tokyo action.

 

[torero 10]

Thanks, tex, that means alot to me coming from a vet like yourself!

 

I try to keep the lowest timeframe at 15min, I feel anything below that is noise, but I could be wrong. I feel getting in at quiet area is best (even in pullbacks) so 15min is fairly reasonable frame don't you think?

 

I've been watching the triangle brewing and wasn't sure when it was going to pop but I figured London may push it higher seeing it only needs a little nudge with good volume to break it higher.

 

Not bad for a beginner eh?! :0) I'm hoping the beginner luck will stay!!!

[torero 10]

Triangle target reached and taking profits here just as it bounced from 9350. I guess Tokyo wants to close out the weekend with a bang. I'll take it. Have a nice holidays all and see ya monday! Thanks again tex!

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

 

Not bad for a beginner eh?! :0) I'm hoping the beginner luck will stay!!!

 

Ohhhh, I think your understanding & appreciation of price action is a few notches higher than a mere beginner!!

 

Price action is price action is price action...no matter the candidate/instrument class. Like I said prev: Instrument familiarization is obviously key in determining progression, but if a trader has the raw ingredients in his bag, it's merely a case of concocting a new menu with the basic materials

 

I agree, the higher timeframes certainly offer a clearer view of the landscape. The lower frames, when used in tandem, are helpful in offering maybe a more precise trigger execution.

 

15m is a happy medium for sure, although I do on occasion drill down to the 5 to take a peek every now & then.

 

I guess everyone finds their own comfort zones according to the current layout etc. There's no right or wrong - just whatever works for you!

 

Nice trade to end the week with though huh? Good stuff!!

[Anna-Maria 10]

I've been asked whether I refer to any of the other Fibs numbers apart from the favored 78.6, which has cropped up in a few graph examples used to illustrate my set-ups/triggers.

 

Sure, I use them as reference points. Not particularly as triggers or sole means of trade decisions, merely as additional aids to refer to. I like to see how price behaves on or around levels which harbour these % lines, especially if they rest at Big Figures or secondary round numbers (50's).

 

The "full set" are primarily plotted from the Larger Frames: Weekly/Daily & those levels transferred down to the 240/60m templates which form the basis of my entries, profit paring, compounding & exits.

 

Some folks like them, others dismiss them as mere coincidences - and I guess if you draw enough lines from the various high-low pressure points at the swing levels, you're bound to get some which "fit"

 

Which is why I prefer to plot the complete set from extreme levels via the larger timeframe references. Over the years, they've consistantly hit on enough zones of activity for me to at least consider these area's as valid markers on the technical landscape.

 

I'll generally only eyeball the 78.6 number on the smaller swing zones as it pressures that particular level, but the others sit on my focus frames (60/240m) from the larger levels to offer a secondary confirmer.

 

If price decides to go on a run, more often than not they'll stall or react to

one or more of the big Fib lines, as is the case with this current Franc trade.

 

Coincidence?? maybe - but I'm not too bothered either way. I'm not concerned with delving into the why's & wherefor's or wasting my energies on digging deep into the magic of the ratio's....they react often enough for me to observe them. Our folks & their colleagues have used them for years & they're still trading...that'll do for me!

 

[torero 10]

Amazing! I think only a few people use 78.6 and 21.4. I was introduced to this # by my mentor and it was very exiciting to watch. But it's true, they don't mean anything unless price action treat it with respect. So it's there but no telling if price action will pay attention to it or not.

 

A correction is in order, I actually had expected the triangle pattern target at 9250 not 9350. I only set my stop loss when I stepped out for a while. So it was a positive surprise to find it was hitting 9350 and not 9250. I don't expect 2cents runs like this everyday in such a short time. So I'll take it as special christmas present.