Trading the es friday 13 nov with mp

[chrisp 10]

Hello to the forum. I have benefited immensely from the contributions here and wanted to post something as a contribution. The action on the ES on Friday 13 NOV was very interesting and what follows is how I saw the market pre-open and then how I adjusted my analysis as the market developed. Please critique and comment freely.

BTW I am a paper trader, still very much a learner and I am not saying in any way “this is how to trade”.

 

Please note: I am on central European time and my opening bracket is D.

 

EOD Analysis of ES Thursday 12 NOV

 

From my journal

 

Direction down vol1741K which is higher than Previous Day & higher than average for this unit, VA is wider than PD & wider than average: trade is being facilitated to downside. Buyers made a b in G-M but fresh selling came in in N, forming a spike.

 

BIAS TO DOWNSIDE TESTING LO OF UNIT AT 74.00

 

LOOK FOR RESPECT AT G & E SINGLES 0911

 

Analysis of ES after open on Friday 13 NOV

 

D and E brackets started to build value in the Previous Day spike starting at N. However I missed the significance of price respecting the single print at G on 09 NOV: this was the first clue that the 12 NOV spike at N was not sufficient selling to counter the buyers in the Long Liquidation Break of the G-M period on 12 NOV. CF MP graphic.

 

A psychological aside: I missed this chance to change my downward bias altho I had noted this in my EOD analysis for 12 NOV: I find it extraordinarily hard to keep all elements of my analysis co-ordinated as the market develops.

 

A second chance to change my downward bias came when I looked at the 15 minute chart. Here is the excerpt from my journal:

 

I identified accumulation on the 15 minute chart which confirmed the G-M b loop, Analysis as follows:

1 ultra vol-152K

2 3 4 confirm this as buying

4 hi is the top of the b loop

so it looks like the buyers in the b loop are active today

 

For entry I looked at the 4 minute chart. The white diamond bar was my reference because of hi volume and good facilitation. Following this my analysis was VSA based so I will leave this out. However the ellipse at 1 can be considered a Long Liquidation Break on a minor scale (on a small time frame market profile a b shape would appear). This was a heads up for me and an entry long around 91.50.

 

Post Trade Analysis

 

And how did the trade turn out? Adequate R/R but nothing special. My data feed was interrupted but it looks like J was the high and thereafter value built overlapping to higher above the G-M loop. Which brings me to time frames, something which I am very unsure about, but this is how I see it:

 

12 NOV N spike day time frame takes control EOD (BTW if anyone has ideas about why these spikes develop EOD I would be very interested: it seems often like traders covering or liquidating and making a loss, but I can't figure out why.)

 

13 NOV BO from 12 NOV LLB loop, swing/overnight traders now in control in the day frame but longer TF is still selling as indicated in the EOD analysis at the beginning. If this is so then Monday (tomorrow) or the following days should see more downside.

 

If (a big if) I have the time frame analysis right then my long trade was OK but it kept me out of the better trade which was to fade the G-M Break Out up so I would be aligned with the longer time frame trader. My grandmother would probably reply” a bird in the hand...”

[electroniclocal 10]

I would suggest that you look at the order flow at your critical s and r areas. just looking at volume the way you are is not telling you much. mp gives greqat structure and shows where value is travelling but you need more info to actually time and validate the trade, and that for me is order flow. I'm teaching my daughter to trade and the basis of what I teach her is to use ordere flow within the MP structires. I have a couple of examples in the blog we use to document what we do.

Edited November 15, 2009 by electroniclocal
typo

[chrisp 10]

I would love to be able to read order flow in the sense of T&S. Sadly I don't believe it is possible to acquire this skill without a mentor and personal instruction. Please correct me if you think I am wrong in this. I am less convinced by Market Delta, at least from an MP point of view.

I do know a profitable trader who enters trades almost exclusively on the basis of the profile. However he also has:1) deep pockets 2)excellent trade management 3) almost flawless discipline. I admire him but if I tried to emulate him I would quickly be broke and probably divorced. I try to redress the balance by employing VSA/Wyckoff ideas. In this thread I have kept the emphasis on MP.

Chris