Interesting Charts for Technical Trades

[Dinerotrader 10]

@ dinero

which platform this one?

thanks

 

I use "www.freestockcharts.com" for all my stock charting.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Dinerotrader

[india quant 10]

thanks for prompt reply

@ dinero

[Dinerotrader 10]

HWD

 

Diamonds I would think are going to make a come back as the economy recovers. Last I heard women still liked them. Just barely broke out of resistence and got a way before it touches the upper trendline. I'm a buyer with stop below the lower trendline.

 

 

 

Complete reversal at trendline touch. I bailed out with a 6.8% gain. Might get a nice reversal off the support line now.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

GFI

 

Decided to try buying this trendline support because of the nice hammer candle which formed today. I bought in at $13.40. Stop set at $12.84

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

When it comes to stocks, I am mostly "long only," and if I short, it is usually by being long puts. I look for stocks breaking to new highs, preferably all time highs. I do like to buy pullbacks to prior breakout levels as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for the thoughts. I'll try to find a stock scanner to look for all time high price makers. I've been messing around with finviz.com to see if I can get it to do what I want but it isn't as user friendly as I was hoping or maybe I am just slow. Probably the later.

[Dinerotrader 10]

ASTI

 

Nice hammer candle today touching the support area. Possible buy for tomorrow morning.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

DTSI

 

Are 2 hammer candles, both touching support, better than just one?

 

[DugDug 10]

"When it comes to stocks, I am mostly "long only," and if I short, it is usually by being long puts. I look for stocks breaking to new highs, preferably all time highs. I do like to buy pullbacks to prior breakout levels as well."

 

Also - long term trend traders typically have issues with stocks due to the nature of the pullbacks. Even the SP500 does not work that well for a lot of models.

I ran a test once showing a long only trend trading system had returns similar to a long short one, except with a lot less volatility. However it means you are practically tracking what an index does while avoiding some of the bear markets....where is the fun in that?

 

Makes sense to just go long stocks - just from the point of view that they do tend up wards over time dues to earnings etc. They also tend to have good pullbacks to support as well....so I could not agree more.

Two things to keep in mind is 1) if the market or sector is in a downtrend even good stocks will get dragged down 2) if taking profits and being active - then I found due to the nature of stocks (just from experience) that its best to do so when they are rallying and it looks like they will never sell off.....my mistake was always to let them run - thinking "these things are never going down again in our lifetime" - then finally selling them at a small profit or at breakeven....thankgod for the big winners.

This has a lot to do with institutions rebalancing between defensive, growth etc;

 

Has anyone ever looked at vector vest - I think this helps rank the best stocks in the best sectors etc;? I have only seen adds for it.

Looks like some good work by Dinero - in and out consistently....

[Dinerotrader 10]

FMBI

 

Quick post. This broke out a few minutes ago. I bought in at 12.44. Look at the volume spike. Woah!

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

OKSB

 

I've been looking around for stocks with nice hammers that touch support on their daily chart. If I find that, then I want to see that when price touched support, volume kicked in, and the buying began because the bulls now had enough reason to go long at such a discount price. Here is good example except the support level is not as clear as I would like.

 

[thalestrader 14]

"When it comes to stocks, I am mostly "long only," and if I short, it is usually by being long puts. I look for stocks breaking to new highs, preferably all time highs. I do like to buy pullbacks to prior breakout levels as well."

 

Also - long term trend traders typically have issues with stocks due to the nature of the pullbacks. Even the SP500 does not work that well for a lot of models.

I ran a test once showing a long only trend trading system had returns similar to a long short one, except with a lot less volatility. However it means you are practically tracking what an index does while avoiding some of the bear markets....where is the fun in that?

 

You can significantly outperform the SP if you do three things: 1) Use the IBD 100 as your watchlist, 2) follow the IBD Big Picture, i.e. only initiate new longs during confrimed market uptrends (though they got a bit screwy lately calling a confirmed uptrend a few weeks ago on new highs with shrinking volume - usually IBD is more strict with its rules), and 3) Use a trailing stop loss so you do not ride your winners into the ground.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

FORM

 

Trendline and support level reversal is the play here. I'll buy in if the index futures look like they are rallying up of the support levels they hit today.

 

[thalestrader 14]

FORM... I'll buy in if the index futures look like they are rallying up of the support levels they hit today.

 

Always a good idea to time your buys so as to have support from the general market.

 

Here is an interesting article from IBD from 4 or 5 years ago that I saved (Sorry that the charts didn't save with it - I have no idea why).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Even 'Secular Bear' Will Still Have Time For Nice Bull Runs

Author: DAVID SAITO-CHUNG

Section: The Big Picture

Date: 6/8/2005

 

 

The Nasdaq has risen as much as 98% since a powerful market rally began 2 1/2 years ago. Many growth stocks have logged triple-digit gains. Yet the media might have you thinking otherwise.

 

U.S. newspapers and magazines have used the phrase "secular bear market" as if it were dogma. Since the major indexes posted a huge follow-through on Oct. 15, 2002, IBD has counted more than 100 articles using the phrase.

 

The small-cap S&P 600 has gained 99% and made all-time highs as early as October 2003. Yet on cable TV news shows, announcers and pundits have uttered "secular bear market" in 75 separate occasions, a search of Nexis.com shows.

 

Over that time, the U.S. economy has grown at a steady pace, corporate earnings have hit record levels and hundreds of companies have successfully braved the IPO waters.

 

So why the "glass is half empty" mentality?

 

Dow Struggles, Leaders Soar

 

One could blame in part the public's infatuation with the Dow Jones industrial average, which remains the first-mentioned index in many market reports. The 30-stock Dow is made up of huge, well-established, profitable companies. But the Dow has gained virtually squat since it broke 10,000 in March 1999.

 

Compare that with the Dow's heady run of the 1990s, in which it raced up more than fourfold, and many have concluded that the 2000s are simply the start of a long secular bear period.

 

That's why journalists and pundits have compared the market's recent action to the so-called lean years of 1966 to 1982.

 

But ask successful money managers whether they've made gains during these "rocky" periods, and the answer is a resounding yes. Why?

 

They've latched on early to young, innovative companies with outstanding growth numbers at the start of fresh market uptrends, then sold when the stock gave topping signals and the market headed into periods of fierce selling.

 

"It is true that the Dow went nowhere from 1966 to 1982," said Fred Fern, chairman of Los Angeles-based Churchill Management Group, which invests $1.8 billion. "That said, as investors, you and I should be worrying about the cyclicals, not the secular. What you want to do is to define the end of bear markets and play the cycle."

 

Sideways, But Not Flat

 

As the accompanying chart shows, the declines during that 16-year period slammed plenty of investors. From December 1968 to May 1970, the Dow fell 37%. From January 1973 to the end of 1974, the Dow slid 47%.

 

Those harsh waves down forced some Wall Street brokers to throw in the towel.

 

There were plenty of reasons to be scared at the time. Recessions hit the economy in 1970, 1974, part of 1980 and 1981-82.

 

The Vietnam War demoralized the country. Inflation spiked, thanks to oil shocks by OPEC. In 1981, the prime lending rate hit a record 21.5%.

 

But the spirit of free enterprise, a stable system of government and tax cuts also helped spawn bull rallies during that difficult period.

 

Plenty of new companies with revolutionary technologies attracted heavy buying by institutional investors and staged gains of 200%, 300% and more.

 

The 1966-82 period was similar to the aftermath of the 1929-32 bear, in which the economy, even during the Great Depression, produced life-changing inventions such as the TV and more efficient cars.

 

Microsoft, the world's largest software company, was incorporated in 1975. Wal-Mart, which now has $294 billion in sales, came public in 1971.

 

After the Dow slid 27% in just nine months from its February 1966 peak of 1011, the market bottomed on Oct. 11 that year.

 

Six sessions later on Oct. 19, the Dow gained 1.7% on higher volume, confirming a new uptrend was in place. That follow-through gave the green light to astute investors to find leading stocks.

 

Winning Stocks

 

Indeed, there were scores of great winners. Just two days after that follow-through, movie studio giant Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer broke out of its base and began a 138% price run that lasted through October 1967. Less than three months later, Holiday Inn broke out and posted a 151% increase.

 

Many other companies produced even larger gains, including Digital Equipment (351% gain from January to December 1967), Bausch & Lomb (44 to 160 in 1971), Loews Corp. (up 819% from April 1967 to February 1969) and Disney (fourfold gain from 1968 to 1971).

 

"There were tremendous opportunities to make a lot of money, and we did," Fern said.

 

The value of the major indexes at key market tops has little relevance to the bull market cycles that later take place. The Nasdaq's March 2000 top at 5132 reflects the peak of speculative froth in a select group of companies. Many of them went on to lose 95% of their market value or go bankrupt - JDS Uniphase, WorldCom and CMGI Inc., to name a few.

 

Despite the strong gains since early 2003, the Nasdaq still sits thousands of points below that bubble peak. But like the 1966-82 period, plenty of big market winners have made triple-digit gains for those who understand how to use charts to spot signs of strength.

 

Many of them are recent new issues such as Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Coach.

 

Meanwhile, Apple Computer and others have reinvented themselves with new products or new management.

 

Indeed, it's hard to call the past three years tough times. Over that period, there's been a tech rally. The Nasdaq rose 50% in 2003, its second best showing ever. Internet, chip, wireless and biotech stocks have also joined in the leadership, breaking out of good bases and marking 52-week and all-time highs.

Major Sector Rallies

 

Home builders began their big climb as early as the second half of 2000. And during the past 2 1/2 years, investors have witnessed an energy rally, a health care rally, a steel and metal processing rally and an Asia rally.

 

"Sector rotation is an important component of our asset modeling work," said Valentine Capital Retirement Group, a San Ramon, Calif., firm with nearly $1 billion under management. "We continually monitor the market for leading industry groups and signs of sector strength. Being aware of increasing wholesale prices the past four or five quarters has helped us gain exposure to outperforming sectors like health care and raw materials."

 

In a secular bull market, the rallies tend to last longer. Fern, who has been a professional money manager since the 1960s, warns that during slower periods, bull rallies tend to be shorter.

A Maturing Cycle?

 

He calls the current bull market, which is now two years, seven months old, "mature." Fern also warned that the cash position among mutual funds is at its lowest level since two other key market junctures: early 2000 and May 1972. Managers, just like individuals, are susceptible to the herd mentality, and the crowd is always wrong at market extremes.

 

The Federal Reserve has also made its mark on the market's recent landscape.

 

"Greenspan has been the chairman of the Federal Reserve since August 1987, and his style has always been to raise the fed funds rate until he causes some crisis, or until the economy goes into a stall, and then very quickly ease again," wrote Don Hays, a veteran market strategist and head of HaysAdvisory.com, in a recent note to clients. The 1995-2000 period was the only time when rates weren't being ratcheted up and down in a wide band.

 

So when the next top comes, Fern said, investors should go light and reduce risk "because you can make so much in a cyclical bull market."

[Dinerotrader 10]

I'm still waiting for the stock market to get its footing before looking for any new long positions, hence the period of no posting. I took profits on everything a while back when the ES started breaking through support levels. Everything looks like its on a blue light special sale right now but I am looking for more strength before making any bets.

 

I only have one position open which is in FORM at $15.71. I am happy enough with this one long term I will probably average down if we get closer to big support levels and cut it loose if it makes all time lows.

 

Note: In addition to my trading money, I actively trade all my retirement funds so when I say I only have one position, that means I am all in cash, no mutual funds, etc.

[Dinerotrader 10]

PLFE

 

Here is one heck of a wedge. Look at the coiling of the last month's price action. Sometimes I wish I had time for stocks again. Trading oil is consumming all my trading time.

 

 

[brownsfan019 17]

DT - how would you play that wedge if you were?

[Dinerotrader 10]

DT - how would you play that wedge if you were?

 

Such a huge wedge that has been building for a year. I would only be looking to play a long. I'd be looking for a break above the top down trend line, retest of the wedge and then breakup again. Your basic H-HL-HH. With such a tight coil though, it might make a huge move when its ready to break. Who knows but definitely an interesting chart.

[Dinerotrader 10]

DNN

(Uranium miner)

 

Here is one I jumped into today. I have made money from this stock many times. Hopefully the beginning of an uptrend.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Timing the exits is always the most frustrating part of trading. Right now I am finally feeling good about my stock exits. I sold all my stock positions which I swing trade at the blue arrow (see ES chart below). I sold that day because the prior day move up felt like that last big push at the end of a trend when all the late comers jump in. There was also some trendline break that I noted. I was up on all my positions and had a good profit so I was ready to cash out. If I had to do it again, I think I would have exited at the red arrow after the ES had failed to really make significant higher highs. I don't short stocks so hopefully everything will keep tanking and I can start looking for longs again.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

PLFE

 

Here is one heck of a wedge. Look at the coiling of the last month's price action. Sometimes I wish I had time for stocks again. Trading oil is consumming all my trading time.

 

 

 

Just to follow up. Here is what happened on PLFE

 

[boilergradd 10]

I have been following this thread for some time now. What are your thoughts on RIG? They seem to have found some support around the 65 dollar range, I would be looking to pick up a vertical call spread around 65 using the 65 and 75 strike June calls?

[MadMarketScientist 11]

I'll be interested to see how your RIG trade works out if you go for it. I do see the set-up you're discussing using the methodology outlined in this thread.

 

The reason I'm intrigued by it is on a totally different approach I take on a 130 minute chart it's in a short zone from $66, on a 60 minute short from $68, though on my 30 minute chart the short happened from $83 back on 4/28 and already completed down to price projections of $74-$77 (obviously exceeded that)

 

This should be a fascinating one to watch because I can see the potential power of your set-up your watching which would run contrary to these set-ups.

[boilergradd 10]

I'll be interested to see how your RIG trade works out if you go for it. I do see the set-up you're discussing using the methodology outlined in this thread.

 

The reason I'm intrigued by it is on a totally different approach I take on a 130 minute chart it's in a short zone from $66, on a 60 minute short from $68, though on my 30 minute chart the short happened from $83 back on 4/28 and already completed down to price projections of $74-$77 (obviously exceeded that)

 

This should be a fascinating one to watch because I can see the potential power of your set-up your watching which would run contrary to these set-ups.

 

Thanks for your insight. The next few days should provide a direction.

[Dinerotrader 10]

RIG

 

Sorry for the late response. My wife was having a baby last week so I got behind on most things. Hindsight analysis isn't worth much so I'll just post the S/R I'd be watching going forward for swing trades on the WEEKLY chart.

 

[SunTrader 10]

TLAB

 

16.4% move off the bottom in mid December.

 

Kept on ripping almost doubling from the lows. Damn. :doh: