Cable Musings

[Anna-Maria 10]

tex, in addition to opening and closing of markets, are there predictable schedules when important news are release, either London and Tokyo? I'm already aware of the US-based news time but not sure about the other 2.

 

I watched the London open as it moved down toward S1. I took Raul's strategy and short scalp with 5 pip gain when it broke Asian low level.

 

Thanks.

 

Hey torero

 

Yeah, that's what I like bout Raul's approach - you can take advantage of small pockets of price movements around key zones with decent size/achievable target ratio's. Once you get to grips with how to execute that type of play, it can be a pretty neat account compounder

 

Regards news events: Whatever pair or cross you're trading, it's key to be aware of the potential market moving data. Currencies are ultra sensitive to data, particularly that which impacts the forward looking structure.

 

Inflation data & Interest Rate news is especially sensitive. So too are the ramblings of the various Central Bank chiefs. Traders are always on the backfoot when these releases hit the wires.

 

For Cable, all you need are the releases which affect that pair really....so trading the GBP/USD both sets of news items are relevant.

 

I wouldn't really pay too much att'n to Yen news if I'm trading Cable....the knock on effects (to $ pos/neg news) can obviously roll over to other $ demoninated pairs, but on the whole, I generally only focus on the data coming out of London & NY in relation to Cable.

[surfer 10]

Hi,

 

the chat was very stimulating. In my first trade my SL was hit by 1 Pip but my second was successfull. "I will come back":)

[torero 10]

I'm going to watching London opening tomorrow so hope to check some posts that time!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Providing price remains contained inside today's Asian shift range, & the S1 zone, the Daily will print an inside bar. Only the 2nd such occasion in recent month's - the last one printing on the 8th Nov.

 

That occurance merely faked price 30 odd pips to the downside before retreating back inside the range, running up to the yearly highs.

 

Generally, inside/outside bars printing at key levels attract decent att'n and a break can be the pre-cursor to a good move (in the direction of the break).

 

Obviously, nothing is guaranteed in trading, but these scenario's are sure worthy of a little extra focus.

 

Be interesting to see how it plays out!

[surfer 10]

After I had a positive result this day i was encouraged to poaching a little bit through the 1minute chart.

 

I waited until the asian high broke and then stepped in. Cable made a few pips and then turned around. "No problem i will catch him, hehe". Then short but this was the end and back to the old direction...

 

Today gain´s positive but diminshed....:p

[torero 10]

surfer, try to create an action plan so you don't get sidetracked and trade away your gains. I think texxas has been clear and I'm being patient in following her footsteps on taking the trades where the risk/rewards are best near Fib, S/R, and breakout areas. Stick with these and don't waste the trades in between. In the end, it'll just eat up your money and discipline. I'm holding for tomorrow for the breakout from inside day.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Well, we got the spinning top inside bar on the Daily. And I have my s&r markers for tomorrows London opening tick....

 

See where the Tokyo shift takes it tonite. The data cupboard is empty for tomorrow, barring the Housing Starts which hit the tape @ 8.30 EST.

 

Tomorrow also see's the start of the G20 finance ministers/central bank meeting in Melbourne, no doubt folks will be all of a sweat poring over the jawboning from those great minds! :rolleyes:

 

Hard to say whether prices will make a run for the range extremes or not, given we're edging into the w/end, but I guess we'll get the nod as London opens the gate.

[surfer 10]

Good morning,

 

interesting situation from a Pitchfork view.

We have a test of the upper ML. Target would be the middle line.

That would be between the 61,8 and 78,6 Fib.

[torero 10]

Looks like the GBPUSD is respecting Asian H/L for now. Let's how the opening will treat after.

 

Normally I wake up at 6am my time to get the day started early but this morning I overslept and sure enough missed the bounce from S1.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Ya, it's pretty much popping around yesterday's range boundaries. My Tokyo barriers are slightly different. I tend to wait until London hits the tape @ 8.00am before loading up the H-L markers, but a few pips here or there isn't really a big deal - it's more the "zone" of reaction which is important.

 

I have the low of the Asian kissing the S2, but I don't guess we'll fall out over a few pips

 

The positives are, price is continuing to run with the dominant intra-week trend, so maybe we might get a test & pop of the weekly-monthly lows?

 

Other than that, as you say - if a decent price opportunity sets up off one of these s&r levels, then a quick intraday entry could reveal itself.....

 

Another case of patiently waiting for it to reveal it's intent!!

[torero 10]

tex, do you take the trade before tokyo closes? Are there conditions where you have to take the trade before Tokyo closes? I take it Friday is quite dull with ended already for the weekend?

 

I kept on forgetting Tokyo closes 1 hr after London opens. That 1 hr span is quite interesting, close hour and opening hour, I assume more volatility.

[Anna-Maria 10]

torero:

 

Sure, occasionally I'll trigger before London opens it's doors. Generally those occurances will ensue when we're trending pretty cleanly & we witness a clean pullback during the Asian shift.

 

Price often pulls back to a definitive line (either a prev day's high-low marker or maybe a Fib line?) & prints a series of neutral bars: doji's/spinning tops at the high-low of said level, then moves away in the direction of the dominant trend. On those occasions, if I'm at the screens, I'll trigger an early entry or compound.

 

During consolidation or basing ranges however, experience has taught me to wait until London opens before executing.

 

It really depends on the range which prints during Tokyo trade. Shallow ranges can prove difficult to judge. They often spike & fake either end of the range. I guess a lot of it comes down to experience of watching each scenario & prior history of how individual scenario affects price at these differing levels.

 

Regards your comment about the Tokyo-London overlap: Yeah, it can get a little wild & whippy as London opens & Tokyo closes. Particularly around end of month-quarter when accounts & funds are in the process of 'book balancing'

 

It's wise to keep your wits about you on those occasions

 

Friday's are hit & miss to be honest. I don't have any conclusive records which highlight any kind of negative-positive bias to trading Fridays.

 

I tend to judge each session/day on it's own merits. Thing about currencies: The slightest fundamental or political output can send these things crazy at the best of times LOL....those events can just as easily occur on a Friday as they can on any other day of the week!

 

"Play it as you see it" that's my motto....

[torero 10]

Yes, agreed, I don't place emphasis on what day does what, my only thought was about volume when tokyo closes for the weekend. But no matter.

 

I'm going to study and backtest the hour previous to London open to Tokyo close (I'm at the screen during that time) so I'll have much better grasp watching it real time as well. I took a short morning for 10 pip just as Tokyo closes, seeing it was downtrending last 2 days.

[surfer 10]

surfer, try to create an action plan so you don't get sidetracked and trade away your gains. I think texxas has been clear and I'm being patient in following her footsteps on taking the trades where the risk/rewards are best near Fib, S/R, and breakout areas. Stick with these and don't waste the trades in between. In the end, it'll just eat up your money and discipline. I'm holding for tomorrow for the breakout from inside day.

 

 

Yes, you´re absolutely right. I will try to implement it. I´m watching to often on the 1minute. Till yet, I don´t have enough discipline to stay off.

 

Thanks

[Anna-Maria 10]

I forgot to post this yesterday whilst we were discussing inside/outside bars, and although this thread is geared towards Cable commentary, I wanted to highlight the positives of observing other instruments when looking for specific set ups.

 

Inside bars have been relatively scarse on Cable of late, but on it's European cousin (Euro), the opp's have been plentiful past couple months.

 

It's worth noting, many of the better risk opportunities occur as & when price approaches & prints these bars on the Round or Big Figures.

 

I don't think I need to point out the psychological relevance of these levels, the price activity normally speaks for itself, but good success is consistanly available on & around the Big Numbers.

 

By drilling down into the smaller timeframes as these Daily bars set up, allows tighter & more manageable risk/stop placements.

 

They're a pretty cool indication of increasing "stand-off" or hesitation at these levels, & you'll often witness 1 & 4hr neutral bar formations taking place, further assisting in managing an effective entry/pare/exit scenario.

 

Anyhow, hope it helps to maybe encourage closer focus of the Daily bar prints, especially as price ambles towards these key levels.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Well, what was turning out to be a dire couple days, sparked into life dramatically on the print of the horrendous Housing Numbers.

 

That really was a shocker & spooked the short-term ($) longs big style. It brings the focus of reduced Interest Rates back onto the front burner & raised fears the Housing downturn could knock onto the general economy.

 

I wasn't looking at the Cable as NY hit the desks, preferring to turn my/our attention to the Franc instead. It was cranking back towards our favorite 78.6% Fibo line on the hourlies from the recent 2575-2355 decline.

 

To be honest, it wasn't such a big deal to get aboard any of the pairs after the numbers printed. They all offered a leisurely entry & simply edged away hansomely.

 

Hope folks were able to take advantage of the late week bonus!!....cause it's sure been scrappy since Wed.

[torero 10]

I wasn't expecting the big move either although the base was curling around in the 8855 area so I thought something was up. I pretty ignored the rest though since I dind't even see a pullback to get in comfortably. Next week!

 

I must say that I've learned more last 2 weeks about forex than I have the entire last year, thanks to Raul's and your insight!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Glad you're finding the info helpful

 

There's really nothing much different to trading FX than other instrument classes. James trades the Index Futures via pure price action with the added assistance of market internals - which is a pretty sensible option.

 

Price action is price action, however you wish to interpret it. Sure, different investment vehicles attract slightly unique behavioural traits & react differently to their own internal market structure. But on the whole, if you possess a good understanding of how price behaves at specific junctures on the technical map, & how the "herd" might interpret that activity, then wrapping a workable strategy or two around the psychological cog of the markets becomes a tad easier.

 

It's merely a % game at the end of the day. If your strats are sufficiently robust & the risk-size management is well versed, then you have a little breathing space to work from when the market spoofs you every now & again!

 

I'm certain you, like other index traders on here, won't have too much trouble in adjusting to the ebb & flow of FX. If you can trade one asset class with relative success, it's merely a matter of familiarization & market behaviour awareness when transferring att'n across to another instrument vehicle!

[Anna-Maria 10]

ok, I'm gonna give your 'chart posting' explanation a whirl & see if I can upload these Swiss charts the way yo advised, to show the reasonings behind our choice to trade them rather than striking via Cable yesterday morning. If I mess up 1st time out, I'll re-post on the next message :rolleyes:

 

Right, we'll see how that pans out!!

 

(Hopefully) you'll see why we were paying att'n to Swiss at this level on Friday morning. We've already executed it twice recently as it moseyed back up the ladder towards the 78% decision zone.

 

Like Cable, we've found Swiss displays pretty consistant behaviour on both intraday momentum plays as well as swing behaviour traits. Swiss has a high correlation to Euro, & stacks up well against Cable. If Cable is playing silly beggers around a scrappy s&r zone, we'll often turn our att'n across to Swiss, especially if it's in the vicinity of one of our 'watch zones' - which this pair was y'day.

 

Not surprisingly, these types of entry criteria allow good r/r bias & offer decent risk/stop placement in the event of it turning ugly. Both from an intraday standpoint as well as a swing potential move.

 

This now affords us a two-pronged benefit....decent pare out to book intraday profit + compound positioning for the possibility of continued swing movement in the direction of the prevailing trend!

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Ohh...something didn't quite work out as it should have there?! Maybe James or you torero, can let me know what went wrong on that attempt?

 

I was thining, maybe we could initiate a fresh weekly thread for these FX ramblings?

 

It would keep the thread post count within sensible parameters, so that folks wouldn't have to plough thru page after page of continuous info?

 

Maybe kick each week off on a Sunday. And rather can header it as simply a "Cable" thread, I thought maybe logging each week by it's appropriate week number?....Like next weeks thread: Week 48?

 

That way, different pairs can be hauled up onto it by folks, & a variety of content can be viewed, keeping it all within one observation area?

 

Yeah, no??

[Soultrader 12]

Hi Texxas,

 

Sounds good to me Texxas. I should build a forum called Texxas

 

Can you try attaching the chart again? I looked into the attachment permissions of your account and everything seems to be working fine.

 

James

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hey James,

 

I've sussed out what was wrong - they've loaded ok now!

 

Cheers,

 

Anna-Maria.

[torero 10]

Hi you have to click on in order to see this icon above the post editor, because the QUICK REPLY won't include these features to add in images.

 

Hover over your image link after uploading, and copy that link (right click and select COPY LINK LOCATION or COPY SHORTCUT), then click on button and paste that link, then ok. Then you're done!

 

Anyway, I'll guide you until you do it right;)

[torero 10]

Looks like the breakout happened before the London open, it was a precursor to the move. I was already out before the BOE meeting. Guess I'm no good at trading news LOL!

[Anna-Maria 10]

Looks like the breakout happened before the London open, it was a precursor to the move. I was already out before the BOE meeting. Guess I'm no good at trading news LOL!

 

Yeah, but the price action around the London open was rather tricky this morning though.

 

It was trending during Tokyo, & soon as it busted yesterday's high (9006) in early Tokyo trade, it merely chugged on up.

 

Unless you picked it off at c9030 as it consolidated the Asian lunchtime lag, there wasn't really a low(er) risk entry until the Bank minutes hit the tape.

 

I feel the safest option when awaiting major news announcements, is to allow price to show it's intent?

 

Similar to the normal range breakout set-ups. Allow price to kick around & find it's feet first, then either get in on the flow continuation or remain sidelined if it breaches a lower s&r level & doesn't offer a sensible entry...

 

There will always be more realistic/lower risk entries to be found at another opportunity.