Oct 19 Monday ... Is It Going to Be Black Monday?

[bakrob99 11]

1987 Oct 19th ... Market lost 23% in a single day. This Monday marks the anniversary with somewhat similar characteristics. Just about everybody has finally turned Bullish ... What would it take to really tank this market for a severe correction to shake out the weaker longs before a runup into the end of the year.

 

Stay tuned... Monday should be fun.

 

Comments?

[brownsfan019 17]

Seems like there's a lot of bears around the forums and message boards, but the market just keeps going higher and higher.

 

Personally, I could care less if it goes up or down as long as it's going somewhere.

[zdo 20]

Ah memories (and not analogues btw)

Had sort of the same 'how does it just keep going up and up' questions

A fairly serious sell off started on Thursday afternoon, the week before, and lasted through Friday. Most thought it was pretty much over by late Friday. They fourcled the margin near the open on Monday, but being a beginner, I still had no idea what was in store ...

This was pre internet. I had a live FutureSource satelite feed. Watched the whole thing in shock on 5 minute big SPooz contract. Didn't have the stones to trade it but did do extremely well buying the Dec 30 yr US 2 ticks above the 76.14 lows on Tues night... 9K per car overnight...

[bakrob99 11]

duplicated, remove this post pls

Edited October 16, 2009 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

One thing I distinctly remember was how EVERYBODY who had any stocks or mutual funds were desperately trying to get their broker on the phone. Ha ... good luck. No one was answering that day.

 

Some guys who traded futures got killed when they went long after it looked like a bottom was put in ... just to get nailed on the final push down.

 

What a huge buying opportunity it turned out to be ... but only at the close ... or any day after.

 

Stay safe. I will trade my system and use my stops regardless of what I think is happening.

[zdo 20]

yep, I had a 'direct' line to the floor but they wouldn't answer - which is one thing that scared me off. Called my broker and got through... they advised staying out... and then they called back a few minutes later about the margin increases.

Most don't realize how different calling orders in by phone was from mouse clicking them in... I didn't have direct numbers for most instruments and you could hold for a fill on mkt orders (or limits already in) but most transactions on any other types of orders took 3-4 total phone calls... a call to broker, broker called the floor, and they would call IB back freakin whenever with a fill,a nd they would then call you... anyway even a mkt order could take 30 secs to 2 minutes (or more) for a fill and the spooz could move 20 ticks easily during that time in those days...

They didn't have tarp money , temp trading halts, or the PPT those days to stop a crash and the program trades had no extreme range filters, etc...

[jonbig04 10]

I wonder they they call it "black monday"? Shouldn't it be "red monday"?

 

 

Anyway, when that happened I was 3 months old.

[markw 10]

Difficult to predict with the Fed and Goldman controlling things

 

 

 

 

mark

[daedalus 10]

I'm pretty bearish on the market right now...

 

How many of us watched the paul tudor jones documentary? I got chills when I saw this.

 

91% correlation...

 

MRCI Dow Jones Industrial Avg(Apr 1937-Oct 1938 vs Current) Chart Page

 

(In the documentary the correlations they were running in 1987 was 91-92% prior to black monday)

 

It may not be monday, but i'm certainly expecting implosion at some point in the near future.

 

But I agree with Brownsfan... for my trading I could give a crap which way its going as long as its going somewhere!