One Newby' Way of Thinking

[LùDuān 10]

I'm not sure if this is the right place to put this so mods please help me move it if appropriate.

 

 

I'm very new to trading and have been messing around with a simple trading method and general setups paper trading a few futures and major currency pairs. I've recently been deeply interested in trading through price action and the mental image of the market needed for it. I've read some literature and scoured the forums a bit and I think I have come to think a certain way. Please tell me where my logic is flawed. I'd love to try to objectively figure out how to change my thinking from the masses. Oh yeah! I got some Wyckoff books coming in along with Hutson. I'm looking forward to spending time in the Wyckoff forum here.

 

So I have a couple of things I was thinking about just now.

 

First is that there is only one true price at any given time. The price an instrument is trading at is a reflection of market inefficiency. True price moves by different inputs than the current trading price. I seem to think that when trading price strays from true price too far a rebound occurs. I use this concept to try and find reasons for big moves. My simple reasoning is that for impulsive moves to occur, there must be a compelling reason. This could either be news potentially changing the instrument's valuation for the longer term or price being too far from where it should be. The market's actions should tell me what it thinks price should be. I'm ok with not knowing exactly what true price is, but as long as I know when things are definitely out of wack I'll be happy. I'm primary learning how to day trade volatile instruments with trades lasting on average 5-20 minutes although I'm not sure how that will change once I implement price action into my paper trading method.

 

So yeah, we all gotta start somewhere right? I'm ready to learn if somebody's willing to teach. I've spend ALL my free time since I got interested in trading and I've only gotten more interested and dedicated. It seems like nothing less than deliberate practice will make me profitable. I'm about to open a $250 micro fx account and try to start and see my faults in discipline.

 

PS I'm very excited to find this forum. It seems to me a better source of real logical information than other trading forums I've lurked.

 

back to studying for my midterm tomorrow... :missy:

[jonbig04 10]

Good stuff. I'm sure you know by now there is a lot of great info here and a lot of great people willing to help. Best of luck.