Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

LùDuān

One Newby' Way of Thinking

Recommended Posts

I'm not sure if this is the right place to put this so mods please help me move it if appropriate.

 

 

I'm very new to trading and have been messing around with a simple trading method and general setups paper trading a few futures and major currency pairs. I've recently been deeply interested in trading through price action and the mental image of the market needed for it. I've read some literature and scoured the forums a bit and I think I have come to think a certain way. Please tell me where my logic is flawed. I'd love to try to objectively figure out how to change my thinking from the masses. Oh yeah! I got some Wyckoff books coming in along with Hutson. I'm looking forward to spending time in the Wyckoff forum here. :cool:

 

So I have a couple of things I was thinking about just now.

 

First is that there is only one true price at any given time. The price an instrument is trading at is a reflection of market inefficiency. True price moves by different inputs than the current trading price. I seem to think that when trading price strays from true price too far a rebound occurs. I use this concept to try and find reasons for big moves. My simple reasoning is that for impulsive moves to occur, there must be a compelling reason. This could either be news potentially changing the instrument's valuation for the longer term or price being too far from where it should be. The market's actions should tell me what it thinks price should be. I'm ok with not knowing exactly what true price is, but as long as I know when things are definitely out of wack I'll be happy. I'm primary learning how to day trade volatile instruments with trades lasting on average 5-20 minutes although I'm not sure how that will change once I implement price action into my paper trading method.

 

So yeah, we all gotta start somewhere right? I'm ready to learn if somebody's willing to teach. I've spend ALL my free time since I got interested in trading and I've only gotten more interested and dedicated. It seems like nothing less than deliberate practice will make me profitable. I'm about to open a $250 micro fx account and try to start and see my faults in discipline.

 

PS I'm very excited to find this forum. It seems to me a better source of real logical information than other trading forums I've lurked.

 

back to studying for my midterm tomorrow... :missy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • KDLY Kindly MD stock watch, pullback to 1.7 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?KDLY
    • PLTR Palantir Technologies stock, watch for a local breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PLTR
    • Date: 6th March 2025.   The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?     The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought.   Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value? The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence.     In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs. Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market.   Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro? The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable. Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum.   EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes.       Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today.   Key Takeaway Points: The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil. The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend. The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected. Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PDYN Palladyne AI stock, great day off the gap support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?PDYN
    • MRNA Moderna stock, nice day with a rally off the lower 30.6 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?MRNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.