Trading Oil and Gold

[Dinerotrader 10]

Dinero - interesting chart there. Could explain why I'm getting chopped up on the CL today... price is trying to figure out where to go and tossing me around with it.

 

 

I am having the same problem. I have been expecting that huge reversal upward and not getting it. It will come in time whether today or the next few days. I think price is too discounted to stay this low but that is just my intuition.

 

Not sure if the volume split is also causing a problem or not, just an observation.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

I think it's your support level there. Seems to be holding up traffic.

 

As soon as this bottleneck breaks then we'll see some action but it appears to be at a significant level as you've illustrated.

[brownsfan019 17]

As a side note, you asked about trying to figure out when price might move more on a day - today is a good example where your predefined support level is giving the market an area to take a breather and regroup. Will it last all day? No idea. Will it carry over till tomorrow? No idea. But perhaps something there for you to consider. I guess the key would be knowing when to trade it (ie the move is coming) and when to just watch (ie price is stalling like today).

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick gap fill to start the morning off.

 

[garak 10]

I haven't traded CL so far. Am I right, the exchange fee is only 0.45 USD per side even for non-members?

http://www.cmegroup.com/company/files/CME_Globex_Fee_Schedule.pdf

[Dinerotrader 10]

The phenomenon of prices to follow a trendline is sometimes amazing.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Might be about that time to look for opportunities to take long term oil positions if this shows some strength off the December low. We'll see how it plays the next few days.

 

[enochbenjamin 10]

The phenomenon of prices to follow a trendline is sometimes amazing.

 

 

Just curious - how does this trendline help you?

[Dinerotrader 10]

Just curious - how does this trendline help you?

 

Depends how you trade I guess. Oil often will make moves exactly in line with a trendline. This post was mostly just an interesting observation. You'll see a few posts before that oil traded in an obvious channel for a long period and provided many a good trade.

[enochbenjamin 10]

I normally don't trade CL from 10:30 - 12:00 CST (11:30 - 1 EST) because the market usually just chops around during this time. However this week there have been MASSIVE price drops during this time - does anybody other than me think this a bit odd???

[brownsfan019 17]

I normally don't trade CL from 10:30 - 12:00 CST (11:30 - 1 EST) because the market usually just chops around during this time. However this week there have been MASSIVE price drops during this time - does anybody other than me think this a bit odd???

 

I guess it's all in how you view things, but I trade oil straight through till 230pm EST. For my trading, I don't see a 'lunch' often in oil.

[enochbenjamin 10]

I guess it's all in how you view things, but I trade oil straight through till 230pm EST. For my trading, I don't see a 'lunch' often in oil.

 

Maybe I have rationalized this lunch chope zone thing since looking at my stats my bigest and almost all of my losing trades happen between 10:30 - 12:00 CST.

 

If you and others are making money during those times I must assume that its a mental issue with me.

[brownsfan019 17]

Here's an example of how trailing a stop can look on the CL:

 

 

I had mentioned in the p/l thread that if you decide to trail stops on the CL, you better give them some room to work and here's why.

 

It would be easy in hindsight to see a winning long that got you 40+ ticks but in reality, had you trailed just about anywhere, you would have made little or even LOST on this trade. Looks can be deceiving, esp after the fact in trading. Don't let your eyes fool you.

[bathrobe 10]

To show a different perspective, the last three days of oil shown on the last MP graphic on the right is distributed rather evenly despite closing near the lows. I have yet to prepare for Monday morning but my initial glance at this shows a possibility for a a move up and pa willing a good short. I usually enter the day with 2 fundamental trades I am looking for, again I have not done my homework yet but I may be watching for it. I will see if I can post something

 

Right as I posted I realized I posted a MP chart in the Candlestick Corner, is that ok? Otherwise it could be moved to the pl thread.

Edited January 30, 2010 by bathrobe
Mistake

[Dinerotrader 10]

What a day for oil. I'll remember this day for a long time. This chart emphasizes the reason S/R is the foundation for my trading. Large moves based on predetermined S/R levels.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

2/10/2010

In case anyone was interested in seeing what the people who trade oil on fundamentals use for their analysis, I attached a pdf of a what the big oil and gas guys I know are looking at. Its about $11,000 minimum to subscribe to this for one year. I don't use it in my trading right now but I thought it was interesting to go through and consider.

schork-TSR-20100210.pdf

[james_gsx 16]

2/10/2010

In case anyone was interested in seeing what the people who trade oil on fundamentals use for their analysis, I attached a pdf of a what the big oil and gas guys I know are looking at. Its about $11,000 minimum to subscribe to this for one year. I don't use it in my trading right now but I thought it was interesting to go through and consider.

 

You can't be serious?

 

Goldman sends me open interest reports for all commodities/currencies/fixed income/etc weekly for free - and it has a lot more data then smiley faces and weather predictions.

[thalestrader 14]

I attached a pdf of a what the big oil and gas guys I know are looking at. Its about $11,000 minimum to subscribe to this for one year.

 

Interesting document, Dinero, thanks for sharing.

 

11k/year? Well its nice to know that the big guys are even dumber than us pikers.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

2/10/2010

In case anyone was interested in seeing what the people who trade oil on fundamentals use for their analysis, I attached a pdf of a what the big oil and gas guys I know are looking at. Its about $11,000 minimum to subscribe to this for one year. I don't use it in my trading right now but I thought it was interesting to go through and consider.

 

Gartman's analysis is usually spot on (at least when I used to look at it), it is around $400/year

[Dinerotrader 10]

You can't be serious?

 

Goldman sends me open interest reports for all commodities/currencies/fixed income/etc weekly for free - and it has a lot more data then smiley faces and weather predictions.

 

Ahh, I see I mis-spoke. Gotta check the details better before I post. That would be 10,500 for 5 licenses. My mistakel So more like $2,100 per person. Still way to expensive obviously. I wasn't all that impressed myself. They are just using it from a business perspective. They aren't traders.

 

Edited February 13, 2010 by Dinerotrader

[joshdance 10]

Perhaps it's too long gone, but I would love to revive this thread again :-) Any takers?

 

Here's my current chart setup on the 60m. My plan was to long 111, but with the big drop down with heavy momentum and going all the way down 30 ticks below the area on my chart, I was a little bit afraid to go long after we came back above 111. I tried a short as the pictures show, but was fished before the move down... tested yesterday's high to the tick, and I was unsure of the direction at that point.

[ahimsa 10]

Perhaps it's too long gone, but I would love to revive this thread again :-) Any takers?

 

Here's my current chart setup on the 60m. My plan was to long 111, but with the big drop down with heavy momentum and going all the way down 30 ticks below the area on my chart, I was a little bit afraid to go long after we came back above 111. I tried a short as the pictures show, but was fished before the move down... tested yesterday's high to the tick, and I was unsure of the direction at that point.

 

 

Maybe it's better that crude go away in fall.down...his price was further like some year ago that arrived to 140$ you had a good support near 110..maybe..you used stop.loss too much tight ,for a chart set up 60 m ....try to 15 m in crude,itìs a bit cardio-danger,but you can scalp it better.

[joshdance 10]

Maybe it's better that crude go away in fall.down...his price was further like some year ago that arrived to 140$ you had a good support near 110..maybe..you used stop.loss too much tight ,for a chart set up 60 m ....try to 15 m in crude,itìs a bit cardio-danger,but you can scalp it better.

 

I use a 1 minute chart for entry, 5 for "2 day" view, and have 15m, 60m, and 240m up for larger views, I just showed the 60m because it gives a nice view of the last couple of weeks.

[ahimsa 10]

I use a 1 minute chart for entry, 5 for "2 day" view, and have 15m, 60m, and 240m up for larger views, I just showed the 60m because it gives a nice view of the last couple of weeks.

 

oh ,maybe i misrepresent,i understand that you used ever 60m chart for trade oil,yes infact to 60m you have a better view to the whole period ,i used ever 4h 1d for look better,not only for oil,and effectively the visual of the whole trend is better.wow 1m chart for oil....is like go on russian mountain!

[autotrader1 10]

XAU/USD DAILY as of Wednesday, 27 February, 2013

A Daily white body has formed (because prices closed higher than they opened).

For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 26/02/13, there are 5 white candles versus 5 black candles.

For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 26/02/13, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.

Three Daily white candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Intraday trade: Long Gold with target at: 1624.20 and stop loss at 1579.30