Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

throughthemud

FX Ellioticians

Recommended Posts

End of Week Euro Analysis

 

Unfortunately it appears the EUR/USD has not yet topped. The move downward was in 3 waves and the wave v (circle) was not fully retraced so I'm reentered on the long side and have changed what I was previously counting as the entirety of wave v (circle) as being wave (i) of wave v (circle).

 

If you look at the 15 minute chart of the euro I have labeled what I believe to be a series of ones and twos leading to a high momentum rise for wave iii of (iii). Minimal targets will be 1.4793 but I expect it will go higher than 1.4840.

 

I have also attached a couple daily charts. The first shows the subdivisions of wave 5 of ©. As shown on the chart the equality target for wave i (circle) and wave v (circle) is about 1.4943. Not shown is that the target where wave (i) is 0.618 the length of the entire wave v (circle) which is just 40 pips beyond that at about 1.4988.

 

The last chart is also a daily a chart showing a trendline from the tops of wave 1 and 3 and also price targets for equality between waves 1 and 5. These projections are farther out and it's too soon to see if any of these will matter.

eurusd9-25EOW15min1.618targets.PNG.922fd3705d59c959159f75f47fc32fbc.PNG

eurusd9-25EOWdailyzoomtargets.PNG.53455043e32369be1c92b6a7b6c93485.PNG

eurusd9-25EOWdailytargets.PNG.b90d720dd5e824ab3ed9200eba5b8fce.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a weekly chart of the EUR/GBP. I might start trading this also since it would help me with my euro and pound trades. As I have the chart labeled the euro is in a bullish primary wave 1 (circle) move against the pound. This might alternatively be wave B circle but no matter which is corrective it appears the euro will continue to advance against the pound for quick some time. This fits with my forecast for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.

eurgbp9-25weekly.PNG.7e874ca019b900efbb3600fda928853e.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GBP/USD End of Week Analysis

 

I was expecting a new low today but we got a truncation at best. I'm not completely comfortable with calling that the end of the wave but I am trying a cautious long play anyway. Looks like we'll have an upward correction next followed by a lot more bearishness. Wave 3 looks like it has the power to be an extension so my minimal targets are the 1.618 levels on the daily chart.

 

There are a few things that make me nervous about where the pound has been. The first thing is that ugly correction after wave 1. Second the overlap between wave (iv) and wave (i) of wave i (circle). The third is the questionable truncation that occurred yesterday. My count still fits the form of the bigger picture so I'll keep trading that way until I'm proven wrong.

gbp9-25EOW15min.PNG.fc0446536732d37756dd735f1ab08894.PNG

gbp9-25EOWhourly.PNG.03fe39ab53c41945ed05cd176bec6454.PNG

gbp9-25EOWdailytargets.PNG.470effc745c2886ca1df34723889e0a9.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the last 5 wave structure down on the euro had an overlap on the fourth wave triangle and all 3 waves down were about equal in magnitude. There are two ways of counting this. It is either a c wave of a larger degree or the first wave down of a larger degree. The most likely is that it was the entirety of wave 1 down. There is another possibility that I have not seen since I've been trading elliott waves and that is where there are 5 approximately equal waves down (an undefined extension). I will of course trade the highest probability interpretation and change if price invalidates it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here are my top counts. right now I favor the count where we just ended wave i (circle) down and will now start (a) of ii (circle). The only problem I see is the wave (iii) of i (circle) I have labeled overlaps itself. Alternated count puts us at the bottom of wave (i) of iii (circle). The way you know which it is is by the form the waves takes and their strength as they develop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yesterdays forecast for downside was a mistake as I somehow failed to realize that the C wave had not yet completed 5 waves (all c waves are 5 wave movements) so using elliott wave analysis the correction could not have been completed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi - you guys still watching this?

 

I'm a new convert to Elliott and have limited myself to EUR/USD so far.

 

I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about a count on 4H.

 

I thought I had a triangle forming (attached), so expected a continuation break on the upside after e - it seemed to post a throw-under to the support at 14800 (therefore not a valid triangle?).

 

Following this EUR rallied to a new short-term high - I read this as a wave 1 - now following this (attached 2) and would appreciate your count.

 

Thanks,

 

VR

5aa70f6cdc042_triangle4h.thumb.gif.14f4e1aeb31031f9c3a5e0de2885525e.gif

5aa70f6ce22db_3rdwaveoff14900.thumb.gif.bd800b96889302cf35fa4c7efcd81f27.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've taken on more responsibility outside trading markets and the decreased leverage means forex is no longer my main source of income. I'm trading on a little longer time frame then before. I'm going to try to start posting again but I think the markets are clearing up now so it won't be as difficult to see what's coming next anyway. Here's one chart that is food for thought.

usd.PNG.9b4a2f0bc7892101448a5e55f670d597.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi VR,

Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The USD has made a movement that can be counted as 5 waves and therefore complete for a few days but I don't believe the movement is actually complete. If you look at my chart of the euro the movement since wave 1 down has only been about 1.618 times wave 1. That should be the minimum movement for wave 3. Also this movement has not been nearly as long as the wave 1 for primary wave 1 down. I've been short on this since the beginning of this wave but I won't be adding anymore until it becomes more clear whether this is the end of 1 or just wave 3 or 4.

eurusd12-11.PNG.b646d8295da126059c68b23037f1e5a9.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi VR,

Your analysis is good. I was watching the same thing. The throw over/throw under is actually more common than not for a triangle's e wave. This turned out to be part of a more complex pattern so I hope you didn't get killed expecting that 5th wave you were hoping for. I always play 4th and 5th waves very cautiously.

Hi..Thanks very much...I did make the mistake of holding out for the 4th & 5th...can't complain though +60pts

 

I'm currently liking € on the downside and will post my next count when I have something

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you look at the chart I attached you will see where I think the wave count stands. I think wave 3 of (1) of primary 3 has concluded and we will see wave 4 starting Sunday. Here are some calculations I did...

_______________________________

wave 1 down of primary 3

 

1 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.51436

terminus 1.48277

 

length 315.9

 

2 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.48277

terminus 1.51406

 

length 312.9

retracement 99.05%

 

3 of (1) of 3 (circle)

origin 1.51406

terminus (1.46680/1.45855/1.42608)

 

length (472.6/555.1/879.8)

extension of 1(1.496/1.757/2.785)

_________________________________________________

 

There are 3 points for the terminus of wave 3 due to different possibilities I see but the second is more likely than the first and the third is the most likely of all (the count I'm trading by). That is the most likely count because it is near a common fib level in relation to wave 1, the RSI has diverged and there has not been a movement I would feel comfortable calling a wave 4. Last week I posted that I felt is wasn't long enough because of its relation to wave (1) of primary 1. It has now surpassed the magnitude of that wave (not surprisingly).

 

Looking into the future this correction is likely to be somewhat sideways with a retracement to at least 1.4595 (38%). If the first section of the correction is sharp I will likely only play that section to the upside and then reenter on the downside and wait out the rest of wave 4 without playing it. There's a good chance that wave 4 could consume all of next week.

euro12-18.PNG.fcad9c26045be514c2f05a840b5746d7.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi TMT,

 

I had been trying to get into an 'easy-to-take' short since the $ turnaround...unsurprisingly the €/$ got sold off before hitting really obvious levels until I managed to hook into the resistance @ 14585 on 16th - my setup was I had a 5-wave count down then what looked like an expanding flat correction.

 

14585 was a previous SR level already marked on my chart

+/- a 50% retracement of my 5-wave count down

168% of A off the bottom of B

Had Stochastic overbot on the 1H & 15M (+ a 15M divergence)

1H MACD looked to be failing to break up thru the 0 line

 

Clearly a correction is due but this break-down is already extended...I think I'll stick with trying to get all my ducks in a row on the smaller timeframes and carry on plugging away...the 14585 paid out 200pts on a 20pt initial stop.

 

It'll be interesting to see tomorrow whether this bounce pans out or not

 

Tks,

 

VR

5aa70f86ada4b_14585retrace.thumb.gif.0402e57cf14102b55ce4e76efba74ea8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • VRA Vera Bradley stock watch, pull back to 5.08 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?VRA
    • MU Micron stock watch, pull back to 102.83 gap support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?MU
    • ACLX Arcellx stock watch, trending at 84.6 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?ACLX
    • Here’s something few are talking about: The Chinese are printing money like it's going out of style. Not that you'd hear about it in the mainstream news. But Bitcoin knows.   Bitcoin always knows.   Here’s the thing…   When the Chinese government prints money to paper over the cracks, their smart money doesn't sit around waiting to get devalued.   It usually flows into three things: Bitcoin, gold, and dollars.   After years of being beaten down, gold's having one of its best years in decades. But here's the secret -- whatever gold does, Bitcoin's going to do it bigger.   Much bigger.   Since last November, when China started their printing spree, Bitcoin's been moving in near-perfect correlation with the People's Bank of China's balance sheet. Over 80% correlation, maybe even 90%.   Again, few are talking about it.   But here's why this matters right now: This could be the beginning of a huge breakout in the crypto markets.   Bitcoin broke above its July high, and historically, that's led to new all-time highs over 90% of the time. The only times it failed? COVID and the 2022 bear market.   That's it.” – Chris Campbell   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/     
    • Originally Answered: How can I compete with people who are better than me in every way?   So you want to outcompete people who are smarter, better looking and more experienced than you?   No problem!   All you have to do is outwork them.   Will Smith said, "if we both get on a treadmill either you're going to get off first or I'm going to die trying."     Most people just aren't willing to work that hard. Sure, they'll show up for the job interview and maybe practice in front of the mirror for a few minutes, but they won't do hours and hours of research and prepare for weeks. They won't wake up early and stay up late working on their dreams.   So while all those smart, good-looking, experienced people are waiting around for the next opportunity to come their way, you can outwork them and create your own opportunities.   In a few years, you'll be that "smart" person everyone looks up to. But you'll be different. You'll know it was your hard work, your inner strength and your commitment to living a great life that made you successful and brilliant - not luck or good genes.” – Tom Corson-Knowles, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.