FX Ellioticians

[zdo 20]

throughthemud,

just saw your thread...who from / how did you learn elliott wave?

thx

[throughthemud 10]

GBP/USD just completed a 5 wave structure downward. Previously I had seen this as a triangle developing and continuing along that idea this would be the end of the triangle. We should now see a strong upward movement to bare minimum 1.6495 but more likely 1.6536 or even 1.6604. I will do more analysis and post another chart later.

 

The EUR/USD continues it's painful uptrend. You can easily trade both sides of it right now but be wary because when the end comes it will be painful to be on the wrong side.

[throughthemud 10]

throughthemud,

just saw your thread...who from / how did you learn elliott wave?

thx

 

hey zdo,

It started out when I stumbled across a book by Robert Balan called Elliott Wave Principle Forex. The best book by far though is Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and AJ Frost. I've read this book multiple times and find it incredibly helpful. Elliott wave analysis can seem overwhelming at first but it pays off in the end. Hopefully you'll find it just as interesting as I have. Robert Prechter also started a company called Elliott Wave International and I believe they have a basic starter guide on their website. Check that out and feel free to ask me any questions.

[throughthemud 10]

This is my best count for what is going on in the pound right now. My previous targets still stand whether or not this count is right. The only reason I have trouble with this count is that if the larger degree movement is impulsive then wave 4 overlaps wave 1 more than I'm comfortable with. On the other hand if this is the start of an impulsive movement upward I can't find a workable wave count to support that plus the dollar is bottoming so I don't see the GBP/USD having much upside potential left.

 

Until the count becomes more clear I'll keep trading short term.

[throughthemud 10]

looks like what I was afraid to admit was happening on the pound became reality.

[throughthemud 10]

trend channel looks in place from wave (iii) high i labeled before on euro but unfortunately i will be out today. i'll be trading again sunday night probably

[throughthemud 10]

Last Weeks Trading Synopsis

 

EUR/USD

Trading went very much as expected and ended very profitably. I got stopped out after the diagonal triangle pattern did not develop and falling back on my analysis seems to be working out.

 

GBP/USD

Trading went very well in the beginning of the week but the last day I took losses because of some major mistakes on my part. I was preventing myself from properly analyzing the pound by expecting too strong a correlation between it and the euro. They kind of flow together but you can't trade long based on that.

 

After price charts from my broker come back online I will post my EoW analysis and forecast. After taking a couple days off my analysis is always much clearer.

[throughthemud 10]

Not much time to trade today and probably won't be able to tomorrow either but I just took a look and it appears the euro may be done correcting. I was looking for a drop roughly to 1.45 but the correction can be counted as complete. I think we should now be looking for a final push higher before the ultimate dollar uptrend. The pound looks like it has ended it's 3rd of a 3rd downward movement and while the euro reaches new highs I would expect the pound to have a good retracement seeing as how the wave 2 was complex (guideline of alternation). I expect to have more time to put up some charts and do some trading tonight otherwise I will continue late tomorrow.

[throughthemud 10]

just got my first look at the euro today and it looks like the high is almost end

Most likely targets

1) 1.4858

2) 1.4823

[throughthemud 10]

This shows current price action for the euro on 15 minute time frame. The fib level is where wave (v) is 0.618 times wave (i) which it has already reached. It is more common for a fifth wave to equal it's corresponding first wave especially since this is a fifth of a fifth but it doesn't look like the final wave could go much higher. The price targets I listed on the last post refer to where wave v equals and is 0.618 times wave i. By my current count wave (iv) was shorter than I expected but I'm not an expert at this yet so maybe it's normal. Whether this is the end or just more of the wave (iv) correction I'll switch to short at the top and look for warning signs on the way down.

[throughthemud 10]

looks like the top is in for the euro. the pound is in a good spot to continue its decline also

[throughthemud 10]

the level the euro reached is especially important because it is equality between wave (A) and © that I had mentioned before. that level is a high probability guideline of the wave principle

[taq 10]

great thread TTM

 

I have two questions regarding EWT

 

1- Are you using any other indicator or something as a confirmation before initiating any trade or just on price based?

 

2- How you decide your stop loss is it fixed pip based or the last swing H-L in EWT?

[throughthemud 10]

I use 7 period RSI but generally only to find the end of corrective patterns. It is usually not useful in determining the ends of impulse waves.

 

stop loss on an impulse wave would be the beginning of the wave.

 

b waves of corrections can go past the beginning of wave a so you have to place your stop a little bit back on corrections

 

since the same thing happens at all degrees you can place your stop in much more specific locations by looking at what is happening one degree higher and one degree lower than your trading

[throughthemud 10]

I'm looking for another possible rise to about 1.4855.

 

If there is another small 5 wave drop to a new low it will just be a correction but if it doesn't make a new low then it will most likely reach 1.4855.

[throughthemud 10]

there is too much near term downside potential for the 1.4855 call

[taq 10]

Hi TTM

 

start reading balan & will start paper trading some forex pairs for next three months need your help in understanding & applying the EW concepts

 

can you suggest any material which provides probable tgts in EWT so that i can calculate RRR before initiating any trade?

 

Time frame 15-min

 

Regards,

TAQ

[throughthemud 10]

I would be surprised if the balan book did not discuss price targets but I know Elliott Wave Principle by Prechter and Frost does discuss it. I think they have some info from the book on the elliott wave international website. Waves are the same at every degree (time frame) so whether you trade on 15 min or daily charts you will trade the same.

A sample of guidelines (high probability forecasts) for price targets are

Wave 3 will be at least 1.618 times wave 1

wave 5 = wave 1 or is 0.618 times wave 1

There are a lot more than that especially for corrections and it would definitely be worth your while to buy Elliott Wave Principle. I think it is only $20 - $30.

[throughthemud 10]

Here's a link to the information I was talking about. It should give you the basics. Feel free to ask any questions.

 

Free Elliott Wave Info

[throughthemud 10]

looks like 5 waves down in the euro lending extra weight to that last high being the top.

Edited September 23, 2009 by throughthemud
adding chart

[throughthemud 10]

Here is my current count on the euro. The numbers aren't at the right degree but that's irrelevant for this purpose anyway. This whole corrective movement might just be wave a but even if it is it's still worth the trade.

 

If this is the end of wave 2 up then the first likely target for wave 3 down would be 1.4500.

 

Reasons for not counting this correction as over.

-Wave 2s usually rectrace over half of corresponding wave 1s (this has only retraced about .382)

-The retracement hasn't lasted very long

-rsi hasn't even approached overbought on the hourly

Edited September 24, 2009 by throughthemud
addition of possible target and more explanation

[throughthemud 10]

looks like wave 3 down (or C has started)

[throughthemud 10]

Euro Minimum Targets

 

1.4645 - This looks like an unlikely target but if it is a wave c than this would be equality to wave a. If it turns at this point than I would reenter the position on the long side

 

1.4548 - The minimum target for my 3rd wave forecast. This will likely be an extended wave so look for this third wave to have an exaggerated 5 wave pattern subdivision which will also lend itself to a more precise final target. As I typed this what may be currently occuring is the 2nd wave of the 3rd wave

[throughthemud 10]

here's the chart for the last post

[throughthemud 10]

wave 3 down was not large relative to wave 1 so either it is wave 1 of an extended wave 3 or more likely this next wave is wave 5 down and it will be extended like the pound did last wave 9/17 - 9/21. the pound probably doesn't have much more room on the downside before it's next multi day correction as it appears to be entering a fifth wave.