FX Ellioticians

[VILLAFILLER 10]

My attempt to make sense of the Easter €/$ action...

 

I am sticking to the idea that the USD rally is over...

 

I'll be looking to buy around 13440 I guess

 

VR

Edited April 5, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
Update chart

[maxima 10]

TTM, all this discussion - is it real account trading or paper account? and for how long are you doing this?

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

Action hasn't exactly supported the idea that the USD rally is complete...everything still seems to be going sideways since mid March...

 

I have another FX gap idea to toss out there for discussion...

 

Monday 11 April €uro opened 90/100 pips higher than the Friday close, arguably on the back of a Greek deal.

 

If you assume the opening gap from a week and a half ago 'skewed' the chart then it could be judged that a triangle is already complete and the final, 5th wave drop is already under way.

 

I have no idea if this is a reasonable thing to suggest - if price rebounds from current levels, in 3 waves, reasonably deeply...i.e. @ 13590 and then impulsively drops it could still be interpreted as the end of the triangle or the 3rd wave of a drop already underway...perhaps it won't become evident until everything is over (if at all).

 

Just an idea

 

VR

 

P.S. maxima ...personally, live - but not on a large account, if I can make myself an SV650 out of it by this time next year I'll be happy.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

"Sell in May and go away"

 

Selling was definitely a good idea

 

€/$ has moved up off 12144 (incidentally...that is right around the 50% of the € 8 yr rally Oct 2000-July 2008) in 5 waves. The internals of my labelled 3 & 5 are also in 5.

 

Got to be viewed as an A of a correction or the 1st wave of something larger...either way it seems to be retracing somewhat today and is currently 180pts off the high in a single wave - right around 38% of this weeks rally.

 

On this scale it should be worthwhile looking to sell into the lower degree C and then look to go long for the proposed higher C (or even what could turn out to be a 3rd).

 

Difficult to pin down likely levels until we get a B some time today...back to the previous 4th would dictate the long position to be around 12300.

 

VF

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Morning,

 

Got a potentially crucial top coming €/$ and a great rule based upper limit on how far it can go over the next day or two based on my primary count.

 

In my primary, wave 3 is shorter than 1 - therefore 5 must end no higher than 14218

 

My alternate (based on the internals on the 15min) could put the top of 1 @ 13980 with an expanded flat 2nd...in which case there's no such upper limit.

 

Going to be going short against 14218 if it gets close, or short on any 5-down/3-up/overlap-c on the lower timeframes after any 5-wave move off 14008.

 

Cheers,

 

Andy

[nasdaq 10]

Going to be going short against 14218 if it gets close, or short on any 5-down/3-up/overlap-c on the lower timeframes after any 5-wave move off 14008.

Congrats Andy, your count looks really correct and the market is now marching in your 5th.

What i can't understand is why you are "going" short against 4218, while your count point for long against 1.40 FOR 4218 ?

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Thanks for the reply...I actually had the equivalent order in overnight but in AUD/$ since it looked more likely to get to my counted critical support @9889...squared it out already for 90pts

 

As it turned out I could have left the same order in €uro against 14001 but, last night, it seemed less likely to be filled and I didn't want to be overly $ exposed in my sleep.

 

Got stung on $/JPY tho...got filled today on a long against the 5-wave(15min) rally but marginally stopped (0.8pts!) in what now has to be counted as a flat.

 

Andy

Edited October 15, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
JPY deal

[throughthemud 10]

My count appears like its pretty much the same as yours on the euro. I'm not quite sure the high is in. Maybe one more but definitely not much higher. I'm long chf/jpy right now but I'll probably get out of that and into euro short tomorrow or tuesday.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

My €/$ 1hr counts...Haven't had absolute evidence to abandon the USD bottom in place @14159...but it looks increasingly unlikely:)...therefore labelled as my alternate in red.

 

I was long on the 5-wave advance which I have had to amend as 'c' of 'B' in my primary but got caught out going long against a 3-wave drop to 13916.

 

No key fib ratio @ 13811 but a nice coincidence of the 4hr channel support and the A=C of the current bearish move

 

All this with the background of the confirmed 3-wave move off the 14159 recent high

 

Tks,

 

Andy

[VILLAFILLER 10]

It's been a long time since I posted...so here goes...

 

While 13861 remains unbroken it's premature to get really bullish USD vs EUR but difficult to ignore the impulsive drop from 14940.

 

My daily and hourly counts are attached...I'm swaying towards the alternate count in red on the daily

 

- The white labelled 2/3/3 wave hadn't hit a fib level

- The white i/3/3/3 low looks to be in 3 waves

- The move off the 13970 low looks like a 5-wave move in progress

- The hourly alt count supports this...it's currently looking like a memorial day triangle (i.e. terminal)

 

The alt - 4th of c of an expanded-flat 2nd - puts a nice support level @ 14200 where a/4=c/4 with previous S&R at that level.

 

The daily chart has 38% @ 14390 but 50% @ 14500 looks like a nice short opportunity where there's a head & shoulders, big figure & previously actioned S&R.

 

Order in at 14202...see what the morning brings

 

2210GMT....While it stays below 93 the triangle is valid

Edited May 30, 2011 by VILLAFILLER
Price action

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Obviously, didn't get my order filled to go long €/$ @ 14202 but the expanded flat 2nd that I was basing that decision on still looks good.

 

If the expanded flat is the way to go then it looks to be aiming for the previously mentioned 14494/500 level where the 50% retracement, big figure and head & shoulders all lie.

 

Down on the 5min it looks like we're in a 4th of 5 (of c of the expanded flat)

 

A new high above 14487 with divergent momentum on both 1hr and 5min would make me look to sell € with a target below 13970.

 

Andy

Edited June 2, 2011 by VILLAFILLER

[forexfilms 10]

My primary Elliott Wave count on EUR/USD puts us in a long term downtrend which began in early May. We have broken through many probably reversal points after May US Non-Farm Payrolls and US Unemployment data caused the EUR/USD to surge upward. We managed to find resistance at 1.4695 and as long as this hold we can continue with this count. Even with the alternate bullish count we are likely to continue down to the 1.4250 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the last bullish move and possible support. If we break higher and exceed 1.4700 – 1.4750 area this count is invalidated and we must switch to the alternate count below.

[forexfilms 10]

My primary Elliott Wave count on the EUR/USD is now the bullish outcome. The final target of this larger uptrend would be between 1.5400 and 1.5500. Short term wave counts put us in the beginning of a 3rd wave higher that should take us to at least the 1.5000 area. If we break 1.3750 this count will be voided. If we break 1.4750 this Elliott Wave count will become even more probable but watch for the turn and the levels previously mentioned to signal the C wave has finally ended. The charts above and below show the likely primary count for the EUR/USD. Parallel trend lines hold support and resistance levels for the medium term. This count is becoming more and more likely as the days pass.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi forexfilms...the lack of new lows (despite the lack of Greek rescue package, possible Italian downgrade, Juncker comments etc) makes me tend to agree that we're not yet looking at impulsive drops in EUR/$.

 

Added to this the need for a 4th in the C up from 12875 and I'm leaning towards a triangle - d in progress. I believe the overlap yesterday (making lows below 14222) on the 1hr makes the prospect of an impulsive rally off 14074 less likely.

 

The triangle count, in white, has critical resistance @ 14696 ...above this would definitely support your more strongly bullish count. On the other hand below 14073 would put the immediatley bearish alt, in purple, back in the primary spot.

 

Both my primary triangle and alt call for resistance below 696 so will be looking for an entry ahead of that.

 

Tks,

 

VF

[forexfilms 10]

The bearish count isn't totally out the window yet but I think we finished up a first wave (leading diagonal?) at the highs and we will continue lower. Maybe we'll get a bounce off of industrial production, consumer confidence and pre-fomc craziness before a c wave drop...

[forexfilms 10]

My primary Elliott Wave count on the EUR/USD has now turned temporarily bearish. The drop that started May 4th, 2011 and ended May 23rd, 2011 appears to be corrective but is most likely only the first leg down in a corrective move that will most likely drop the EUR/USD to the 1.3750 area. There is support here from the medium term channel line and support from several areas going back a couple years. This is also where wave C would equal wave A. The timing where the EUR/USD would hit 1.3750 is also close to July 25th when the next EUR/USD rate decision is due. There have been hints of a rate increase that previously drove the EUR/USD higher. If we do get this rate increase it could drive the EUR/USD to reversal.

 

EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis | Forex Films

[VILLAFILLER 10]

The triangle count marches on...

 

The anticipated resistance before 696 put my primary count (white) wave 'd' ending at 14441 & the 4th wave of C ending at 14103 with the 1st of an impulsive rally (possibly) complete.

 

Any rally in an expected 5th wave of C should move beyond 14940 but, by my count, be capped by 15144

 

The alternate (red label 'd' / iv)has the 'd' possibly complete this week at the recent 14577 high.

 

Either of these would call for a 3 wave decline before an impulsive rally - the primary calls for longs ahead of 14103 and the secondary before 14073

 

Relegated to last place is the strongly bearish 3rd of a 3rd count (purple) which has not yet been disproved but recent declines have hardly been breathtaking.

Edited July 5, 2011 by VILLAFILLER
Primary/alt colours