FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

Wave (b) is on. Wave b of (b) will probably carry to about 3976 at most and then c will probably drop to about the wave (i) low. Wave © will then proceed to 1.4120 but watch out for the running flat. It is pretty common for wave 2s of 3s

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi..on a bit of a break but trying to keep my hand in

 

My count makes for an overall bearish view on €/$, however...

 

Friday's overlap into territory above 530 does suggest, on both my primary (white) and alternate (red) that

we are in a 4th of some degree.

 

On the 4hr chart, the 3 waves up to 790 and then down to 440 offer the possibility that Friday's rally may be the

start of a 5-wave C of an expanded flat.

 

My primary calls for a higher degree 4th - in which case, this may be the c of A (which may infer a flat or triangle)

 

My alternate puts this as C of a possibly completing smaller degree 4th with a 5th anticipated to complete

the higher degree 3rd wave drop from Jan 13.

 

My primary seems to have a more credible 'look' but only exceeds the 1:1 of wave 1 (Nov 26-Dec 22) marginally

(an extended 5th to come?), whereas the alternate allows for further advances within the drop since Jan 13 before a significant

correction.

 

The result of all this is that my short-term view is bullish with possible resistance at 13700 (100% of 530/790 off 440)

and a target for a 5-wave advance on the 4hr at 13840 (161.8% of 530/790 & previous 4th).

 

So, if there is a short-term, corrective move down to 13530/10, I may take an intraday long (with all the usual

checks and balances - momentum divergences/oversold / a=c within the drop etc).

 

A break below 440 or an impulsive drop would negate the possible long & suggest a resumption of the drop with these 4ths still to come.

 

All depends on the action on Monday.

 

VF

[throughthemud 10]

My larger degree count is the same as yours villa and my targets for wave c (circle) of (iv) are also the same. I think it is more likely that this wave will be a running flat or running triangle though. Just to let you know you're breaking a rule on your count for the subdivisions of wave 3. That should be an extended wave 1.

 

EDIT:

Wave 5 could very likely be extended. It is likely that it will fit mostly in the wave 3 trend lines breaking through the bottom slightly. I usually assume 9 wave sequences.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

Thanks for the heads up about the count...I'm liking my alternate now with a 4th wave triangle to open the way for a 5th of the overall 3rd from Jan 13.

 

Up until d wave o/n it still could have been an expanded flat to 13840 (I went long at 525 yesterday since both the flat and the triangle favoured the upside...so made some on the b of d.

 

The primary count would anticipate e to reach 13600 (which is 61.8% of d), ideally sometime tomorrow afternoon GMT.

 

Immediate target would be new lows, but the 162% projection of higher degree wave 1 puts it much lower.

 

VF

[VILLAFILLER 10]

The €/$ previous triangle count was negated by the failed follow-through on the 13440 break and the subsequent rally beyond the extent of the previously presumed wave e

 

My new primary count of this assumed 4th is attached (in white)

 

...a straightforward zig-zag to A - a more complex, extended B and an expanded flat C

 

An alternative interpretation (in red) has the a of the expanded flat being the complex component but both have the overall correction possibly complete at 13737

 

This is supported by what looks like a five wave rally to 13737 (top possibly defined by the rule of third waves not being shortest - 1hr chart attached. Additionally, there seemed to be an ending diagonal on the 5min on Wednesday - with the throwover carrying price to 737) and a subsequent 5-wave drop to the Friday low.

 

If you work on this basis then we should expect a 2nd wave correcting to less than 13737...

 

...from current levels, with a possible a & b complete, there is a coincidence of fib ratios & previous support/resistance at 13691

 

- 100% of a off b

- 78.6 retracement of previous 5

- 261.8% projection of b

- previous minor support & major resistance from Thursday (and 11 & 23 Feb)

 

Something else to watch is that this could also be interpreted as an harmonic pattern - 'The Bat', but that would call for the correction to reach the 88.6% retracement of the drop from 737 (around 13712)

 

A drop below 13590 would call for a reassessment of the labelling of the assumed correction in play

A move below 13528 could call for a recount (possibly a 4th wave still underway of a drop from 737)

Above 737 means a re-examination of the overall count of the higher degree 4th in progress

 

A possible short @ 13691 would have to be confirmed with momentum and, ideally, divergences.

 

Happy hunting,

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

Looks like a lot of markets are ready to turn down now. The shorting euro and gbp right now. Crude oil and stocks looks ready to drop this week. I've got tight stops increase we get one more sharp spike up but I believe this is either the end of a C wave or A wave on the euro and gbp. We're way overbought on rsi and we have macd crosses on 1 hour charts. The macd cross on the 4 hour chart will come during wave 2 of 1 of 5 which will be an excellent place to add to the position.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

Been tough trying to keep short over the repeated failures of triangle counts - but I have Euro to turn a little higher - I like 13840/13870 based on a zig-zag A, triangle B & zig-zag C

 

- 38% retracement of 3 Jan/12 Feb 3rd wave

- Previous S&R levels

- Neat flat correction with 162% of A (noted that a triangle B negates an expanded flat but nevertheless a coincidence of key Fib ratio)

- 100% of the first wave of C

- 162% projection of the B triangle

 

Either way ...a drop now or a bit higher...things should have a direction for a while

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

A final push beyond 1.3796 would confirm that the 4th wave correction of the drop since Nov has yet to finish.

 

My current count of this overall picture is attached on the 4 hour chart - a lot of fibonnacci ratios are beginning to crowd around 1.3850/70

 

- a 162% projection of the B triangle at 1.3852

- a 162% projection of A at 1.3859

- Previous support & resistance between 1.3838/52

 

An alternate count puts the 1.3434 low (labelled as the e of B) as the end of the higher scale 3rd wave down, in which case...

 

- the 38% retracement of the drop is at 1.3870

- 127% projection of A (on my primary count that would be a of C) at 1.3860

- 162% projection of B (b of C on my primary count) at 1.3860

- Clearly, the previous S&R still applies

 

So, either C is a diagonal...where a e wave throwover would reach for previous key levels between 1.3838/60 or it's a zig-zag with a potential ending zone of 1.3838/70

 

Should price get up there is 5 waves (at the moment I have us in a possible 4 of the five - 15min chart attached) - and momentum looks good for a short, ideally with divergences) then there may be the opportunity to sell into the possible start of the higher degree 5th wave drop.

 

Best laid plans...Fed rate statement may screw all of this

[VILLAFILLER 10]

I never got to my levels above 13838 for the short, so missed it

 

My count attached...going to sit out for today to wait for an expected 2nd wave up

 

At the moment one level stands out to watch for the 2nd wave retracement -

 

50% retracement, previous support/resistance and the end of the preceding 4th are all between 1.3687/95 (plus the big-figure just above)

 

If there is confirmation from the pattern of the 2nd wave correction and momentum looks overbought then it may be an opportunity to sell for the 3rd wave down...if the count is correct this should drop below the recent low of 1.3434

 

This is likely to have to wait until Monday to be clear though

 

I'm off to do some painting & plastering

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I didn't think we'd see a new high so I got stopped out at break even but I got back in at the low 38s on the euro. I put my stop at break even again so hopefully I make something this time.

[rpmfxtrader 10]

UK CPI is being released at 5:30 EST and no major surprises are expected. There are some interesting indicators lining up. It will be interesting to watch the price reaction.

Sentiment position is 1.1 buyers for every seller.

Potential right shoulder of a head and shoulder forming.

Elliot wave count: Wave 2 of a 4 hr W5 down potentially completing.

Current retracement / price correction potentially near completion.

8 hours to go before the setup can be confirmed.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

As of this morning, € seems to be completing the B of a 2nd wave...if the near-term low holds at 1.3517 then a good level looks to be 1.3625/1.3640

 

- A 50% retracement of this weeks drop

- Previous support & resistance levels

- A=C of the correction that started yesterday

 

VR

Edited March 23, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
BIG FIGURE

[throughthemud 10]

After today's action on the euro I think this 5th wave will be extended. It could just be a quick move but wave 1 and 5 being close to the same size makes me think that is very low probability.

[throughthemud 10]

It looks to me like this is the end of the first wave of the fifth wave of the drop since november of last year. It has approximately reached the 0.618 x wave 1 length that is a possible stopping point for the complete 5 but I believe it is only the start for the reason I mentioned yesterday. The stopping points I'm looking at are 3640s (same level villa was looking at before) and/or the upper trend connecting the larger degree waves 2 and 4.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

I'm considering the idea that 3 of 5 is complete (and shorter than 1 of 5)...I have 2 as being a flat therefore it's not unreasonable to think we are currently in a vanilla, zig-zag 4th - (Or it could be the first 3 waves of a 4th triangle, which would fit better with a trend about to finish).

 

If this is the case then I like 13425/34 as a level to sell...tho it would be into a 5th of a 5th

 

50% retracement of 3rd wave

127% of my labelled a

historical S/R

 

Though resistance should be around 13390/400 - 38% & a=c

 

If it does turn out that we are about to see the final sell-off of the drop from November then it would have a definite limit to it i.e. it cannot exceed 3 (+/- 285 pts)

Edited March 25, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
Added triangle option

[throughthemud 10]

I was wrong obviously so back on the downside. If it maintains this momentum probably wave 3 of 3 of 5

[throughthemud 10]

That was just a small fifth apparently so back to the upside for my previous levels for now. Time to watch carefully as the price action has a couple strong possibilities.

[rpmfxtrader 10]

Sentiment readings for this AM:

It is very useful free fundamental info. It moves opposite of major price moves which is much easier to understand from seeing it on a chart (see attached exmple).

Free live charts updated hourly.

 

Useful for all trading strategies, Elliott, swing, R&S, fundamental, Gann etc.

 

+1.78 means 1.78 buyers for every seller

-1.78 means 1.78 sellers for every buyer

 

USDCHF: 1.97 slowly increasing all week

EURUSD: 1.36, peaked for wk on Tuesday as bottom pickers bought into the price drop

AUDUSD: 1.02 fairly steady, peaked wed at 1.26 as traders bought into the price drop

GBPUSD: 1.269, very slight increase over week as price had steady decline

USDCAD: 1.83, steady decline over 2 weeks (3.02 on 3/11), and price trend up since 3/17

USDJPY: 1.269, week started at 1.698 and decline as price shot up

EURJPY: 1.698, up form week start of 1.57, price increasing

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi,

 

I'm going to short 13425/34 (If we see it) -

 

If the end of 3 of 5 was at 13283 and the subsequent low was a b of an expanded flat 4 then 50%, 162 projection of a and S&R are all around that level.

 

If 13267 was the end of 3 then a 62% projection of a coincides with 13434 (no decent retracement level though)

 

Momentum is diverging on the 1 hour.

 

VR

Edited March 26, 2010 by VILLAFILLER

[throughthemud 10]

The momentum is fading too much as you mentioned so I went short again with 20 pip stops. Looking at the indicators this may be wave 4 ending. I'll be watching closely around the low from yesterday to decide whether this is wave 5 or wave b.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

A broken Elliott rule...but...

 

I still like the count on the 4 hour chart with a possible 4th wave top in place - despite the fact that 4 moved into the range of the 1st wave down...though, on the 4 hour chart, it didn't close a period in the range.

 

On the 5min chart there is a pretty clear 5-wave drop off today's high (which failed to close above the point where the 5-wave rally included a 'shortest' 3rd).

 

There is a possible head-and-shoulders on, with the right shoulder coinciding with the 61.8% retracement of today's 5-wave drop.

 

If the potential short-term 2nd wave correction looks like a nice pattern to finish around that point, 1.3505, then I think a short into a possible 3rd of the final 5th of the final 5th since 26th November may be on the cards.

 

AG

[throughthemud 10]

I think the drop that started on 11/26/09 is temporarily over and the trend has started upward. The pound broke out of its wave 2 to wave 4 trend channel today and the euro should follow though it has a ways to go. I will add a chart later.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi TTM,

 

I'm going with you on this...€$ has 5-down, a 10mnth low and (I think) a truncated final 5th on the 5th of the drop from November - daily MACD looks like a complete 5-wave drop.

 

GBP looks to have had a larger degree truncated 5th but, as you say, has broken up through the channel line. Same story as € on the daily MACD

 

If € goes on to make new lows, then a re-think but I think I'm going to switch to looking for opportunities on the upside.

 

Most immediate place for me to look for a long with all the usual ratio/momentum support is just above 1.3383.

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Got a possibility here...

 

Got a B-triangle currently breaking out on the 15min....gives A=C to previous support & resistance at 13433

 

a triangle implies a corrective move...no fib retracement line on level though

 

VR

Edited April 1, 2010 by VILLAFILLER

[throughthemud 10]

Good call on the triangle but something I've started to notice is I think wave C is usually smaller than wave A so to at least be on the safe side put profit targets at 75 - 80% the length of wave A when trading a C wave.

 

I made a chart of my current projections for wave A growth. Assuming a zigzag pattern wave 3 of A could likely end at about 3820. It is a heavy resistance level and the 1.618 x wave 1 projection. The 38.2% retracement of the drop since 11/26 is about 4020 and another heavy resistance level for a possible end to wave A overall. We obviously need more time before we can tell for sure if it will be a zigzag but it's looking good so far.