FX Ellioticians

[throughthemud 10]

Here's a corrected count from my last post. The larger wave is still unknown but I think the probability of it being wave i (circle) of minor degree 3 is the most likely because of its size. The wave is too small to be the entirety of wave v (circle) of minor degree 1 and is too large to be wave (i) of v (circle) unless we're going to have two extended waves in minor wave 1 which I'm not sure is possible. If it is possible it is very unlikely.

[elovemer 10]

.... waves 1,2,3,4

...wave 5 yet to come... pretty obvious from the chart i would think

 

... could be wrong of course

elovemer,

don't post in this thread if you're not going to explain what you're posting and it should have some relevance to elliott wave

[throughthemud 10]

thank you elovemer. that's what i thought you were trying to get across but i don't understand the boxes and the circle.

[throughthemud 10]

My short term count. I think we'll see a fairly quick d, e and then a much large 5 wave drop followed by a rise to about 1.4445 - 1.4455

 

EDIT:

There's a good chance that what I labeled a-b-c is actually just c and a is the last high before that. I chose the scenario I posted on the chart because it makes it easier to get to 38.2% retracement. Just keep that in mind.

Edited January 18, 2010 by throughthemud

[elovemer 10]

....... here is my no boxes.. no circle version

thank you elovemer. that's what i thought you were trying to get across but i don't understand the boxes and the circle.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Having thought we were at the end of a key 5th wave I'm going to put out there the possibility that what I took to be a complete 5th was actually only the 'a' of an ending diagonal triangle on the 15min chart - if we see 3 waves up to a 'd' then I'll be looking for confirmation of an 'e' and the possibility of a long

 

VR

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Having thought we were at the end of a key 5th wave I'm going to put out there the possibility that what I took to be a complete 5th was actually only the 'a' of an ending diagonal triangle on the 15min chart - if we see 3 waves up to a 'd' then I'll be looking for confirmation of an 'e' and the possibility of a long

 

VR

 

Apologies for the duplication - for the sake of not wasting it...an updated chart

Edited January 20, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
duplicate post

[throughthemud 10]

That is a very rare event especially for a 5th of a 1st. I wouldn't expect that pattern except if it was a large degree 5th. This may be the 3rd wave of the intermediate degree first. My primary count is that this is the 5th wave of the wave started 11/26. I think the 1.618 x wave 1 puts us in the 1.40s somewhere or you might try to find resistance in a .618 ratio to wave 1 & 3. I'll post a chart tonight if it's not over by then.

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Sure ...I've never actually followed a diagonal to completion...just grabbing for a method of finding a bottom to what I see (as well) as the end of the 5th of the drop that started at the end of November.

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

No problem just don't go betting a bunch of money on it. Here is a chart of my count on wave v (circle) of 1. I believe we have started wave i/a of (a) of 2. This should be a very good retracement. What happened in gold is probably a good example of how the euro will act in this correction.

[thalestrader 14]

That is a very rare event especially for a 5th of a 1st. I wouldn't expect that pattern except if it was a large degree 5th. .

 

Ending diagonals are actually very common at all degrees of trend, and can be the fifth wave of any of the 3 motive waves.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[VILLAFILLER 10]

In at 14088 based on

 

equality of my 1st wave drop from the 26th Nov and this (my fifth),

nice 5-wave drop yesterday

Existing level at 86

Divergence on 1hr momentum

1hr volumes suggest last low was a fifth

61.8% retracement of this mornings small TF rally

 

But hey...been wrong all this week so far:doh:

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

I must be misreading the majority of those diagonals. or maybe I'm just ignoring them because I haven't recognized too many but I know you've been doing this a lot longer than I have thales

[thalestrader 14]

I must be misreading the majority of those diagonals. or maybe I'm just ignoring them because I haven't recognized too many but I know you've been doing this a lot longer than I have thales

 

I am no EW expert, that's for sure, but these diagonals, I have found, are especially common in the currencies. You were right in that when one occurs in an impulse that it indicates an end to a larger degree move,but that move need only be larger by 1 degree. You also will sometimes see them appear seemingly out of no where, in which case one of two things is happening: 1) the ending diagonal is appearing as the "C" of an ABC correction, or 2) sometimes, though rarely, in the "A" wave of a zig zag. I usually do not try to drill down further and subdivide the waves within a diagonal, I just look for the diagonal itself to form and reverse.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[throughthemud 10]

I think you just helped me clear up a major misconception I had. After that last wave 1 it dawned on me that a lot of times I see that overlapping pattern and think it is a b wave but after your post I'm pretty sure it's actually the 5th wave. I don't have a good chart to look at right now to verify this but I will later. This mislabeling has probably caused me confusion before. If I'm right the most common position I've seen a diagonal in is the 5th of a 1st.

[thalestrader 14]

If I'm right the most common position I've seen a diagonal in is the 5th of a 1st.

 

I cannot say from my experience where the statitical map of this pattern is like. I use EW more for a swing to swing basis for day trades, and thus I am not typically trying to determine whether a swing is wave 5 of 5 of 5 of V of 1 of A, so to speak.

 

However, the psychology behind the ending diagonal is that market participants are worrying that the move has, in Prechter's words, "gone too far too fast." It sort of makes sense then, that it would be during the last impulse of the first move that could lead to such a sense of having gone too far too fast. After, by wave three, everyone now recognizes the direction, and the dog pile is on, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[VILLAFILLER 10]

I have something else, from last night, that's interesting - I'd like to know people's opinion..

 

Yesterday morning there seemed to be a nice, neat 5 wave drop forming on the 15 min...which I was looking to to form THE bottom of this drop (see attached)

 

All seemed to be going by the book until the US unemplyment figure which skewed (read screwed) my 4th and pushed it into the territory of 1...however the price then turned and travelled the same distance it should have in an ideal, EW 5th without the ue number...

 

Not sure if I'm explaining myself properly...it seems like we had news (in the direction of the imminent turn) that turned a text-book 5 into a rule-breaking 5 (4 into territory of 1) with a truncated 5th (truncated by the amount of the ue 'displacement').

 

And then we got the anticipated turn...

 

Really just a point of discussion rather than seriously proposing EW rules could break down when a turn 3 or 4 degrees higher is due

 

VR

[thalestrader 14]

I use EW more for a swing to swing basis for day trades, and thus I am not typically trying to determine whether a swing is wave 5 of 5 of 5 of V of 1 of A, so to speak.

 

Here is an example of how I use EW to trade. This is the 6B futures contract (GBPUSD) with my wave count of the decline off of the high. I use EW to sort of "map" a tradable nove, but I am not trying to put this decline from last night through this morning into any larger EW context.

 

 

 

I just took this one as it looks like that wave 4 rally, such as it was, may be over and new lows are ahead. Of course, that wave 4 may be a wave 1A, and this may be 2B decline and a larger 3C rally is to follow. A break below the day's low would indicate wave 5 is underway (unless we get an irregular wave B), and my wave 5 targets are noted on the above chart.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

And while it did not fall to the targets, it certainly has done enough to be complete...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Here's my counts for the long-term and today's business - finally the turn I've been looking for?

 

VR

 

Divergences on all timeframes from 5min to 4h on the stochastics and MACD

Reversal candle patterns on 15min & 1hr

Existing S&R level dating from Summer last year @ 14053

 

P.S. The move from 26th Nov could be a reversal or a correction...either way I favour the upside for intraday/week swings unless this gets negated

Edited January 26, 2010 by VILLAFILLER
Change chart & reasons

[thalestrader 14]

Here's my counts for the long-term and today's business - finally the turn I've been looking for?

 

VR

 

'Tis a turn, but of what degree remains to be seen, right?

 

I don't have time to work up a chart, but I can count five waves down on the ES, so at least a temporary bottom is in place I would think. Still, a very impulsive decline of the highs to the lows, so I would anticipate more downside to come after a decent retracement of the decline.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[VILLAFILLER 10]

'Tis a turn, but of what degree remains to be seen, right?

 

I don't have time to work up a chart, but I can count five waves down on the ES, so at least a temporary bottom is in place I would think. Still, a very impulsive decline of the highs to the lows, so I would anticipate more downside to come after a decent retracement of the decline.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Sure...I've found to my cost over the last week that it doesn't pay to to play for turns on the higher degrees...this does seem to be 5th of a fifth at least so should be good for some pts...certainlt not going to sit on the long if this starts to go sideways

 

VR

Edited January 26, 2010 by VILLAFILLER

[VILLAFILLER 10]

Hi...been a while...

 

I was thinking this weeks rise was the start of turn on the drop from 26th Nov but decided that it wasn't really acting impulsive enough...

 

so...

 

I sold the end of what seems to be an ABC

 

Top of wave 2 of Friday's drop

A=C

C=161.8% projection of B

B is a very neat expanding flat abc

coincidence of the top of two channel lines

 

Time will tell

 

VR

[throughthemud 10]

To me this last drop certainly seems to be wave i (circle) of 3 down when the sizes of the waves are related. This correction should take us to 1.4128 minimum but I wouldn't expect anymore than that unless wave (a) takes us there. As I type this we are at the point where wave iii of (a) equals wave i of (a). It should shoot up quickly soon. If it does not then it is more likely that this is indeed wave c of (a) as in the last chart villafiller posted.

[throughthemud 10]

Here are a couple of charts that help explain my last post and current outlook.